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SpaceX preps Starship, Super Heavy for another week of Raptor testing

(SpaceX | NASASpaceflight - bocachicagal)

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SpaceX continues to work around the clock to prepare its latest Starship and Super Heavy booster prototypes for another week of testing – likely focused on firing up the Raptor engines installed on each vehicle.

Known as Booster 7 and Ship 24, SpaceX has been slowly testing both prototypes for approximately four months, beginning in April and May, respectively. Only in early August did the company cautiously begin attempting to ignite their Raptor engines as part of a process known as static fire testing – by far the most difficult and important part of qualifying both vehicles for flight.

Thanks to progress made in 2021, SpaceX already has significant experience testing an earlier orbital-class Starship prototype on the ground, but the process of testing Ship 24 is still fresh and unfamiliar for a number of reasons. For Booster 7, the challenges are even greater.

On top of major design changes made to Starship and Super Heavy over the last year as SpaceX continues to refine the rocket, the company also developed a substantially different version of its Raptor engine. Compared to Raptor V1, Raptor V2 almost looks like a new engine and can produce around 25% more thrust (230 tons versus 185 tons). SpaceX has also tweaked how the engine operates, particularly around startup and shutdown, further weakening the value of past experience testing Raptor V1 and V1.5 engines on Ship 20 and Boosters 3 and 4.

In other words, with Ship 24 and Booster 7 engine testing, it’s possible that SpaceX is effectively starting from scratch. Many aspects of testing – propellant conditioning, thermal characteristics, tanking, detanking, certain test stands – are likely mostly unchanged, but almost every aspect of a rocket is affected by its engines.

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Raptor V1.5 vs V2.
Combined, Booster 7 and Ship 24 are outfitted with 39 Raptor V2 engines.

Before SpaceX began testing Raptor V2 engines on Starship and booster prototypes, it wasn’t clear if the changes between V1.5 and V2 would invalidate a lot of prior testing. After the start of Booster 7 and Ship 24 static fire testing, it’s now clear that a lot of that earlier work has to be redone. It’s also clear that despite some of the simplifications in Raptor V2’s design, operating the engine on Starship and Super Heavy is much harder get get right.

Since mid-July, SpaceX has completed around 15-20 ‘spin-prime’ tests between Ship 24 and Booster 7 – more of that kind of test than any other prototype in the history of Starbase has performed. Spin-prime tests flow high-pressure gas through Raptor’s pumps to spin them up without igniting anything. It’s unclear why so many of those tests are being done, what SpaceX is gaining from it, or why the company appears to have completely stopped conducting preburner tests (a more life-like spin-prime with partial combustion).

A Raptor V2 engine is tested to apparent failure.

Regardless, eight weeks after the start of engine testing, Booster 7 has only performed three static fires (two with one engine, one with a max of three or four engines), and Ship 24 has only completed one static fire with two engines. Before either vehicle can be considered ready for flight, a day that could easily never come, each will likely need to conduct multiple successful static fires with all of their Raptor engines (6 on S24 and 33 on B7).

If the pace of Booster 7 testing doesn’t change, the vehicle could be months away from a full 33-engine static fire attempt – perhaps the single most important and uncertain test standing between SpaceX and Starship’s first orbital launch attempt. Ship 24’s path to flight readiness should be simpler, but it appears to be struggling almost as much.

According to CEO Elon Musk, “an intense effort is underway” to ensure that Super Heavy B7’s Raptor engines are well contained during anomalies, so that one engine violently failing won’t damage or destroy the booster, other engines, or the launch pad. That could certainly complicate the process of testing Booster 7, and it’s likely that SpaceX is taking some of the same actions to protect Ship 24.

In early September, after a partially successful Booster 7 static fire (its first multi-engine test) and numerous additional Ship 24 tests that failed to achieve ignition, SpaceX replaced engines on both vehicles. Booster 7 had one of 13 Raptor Center engines swapped out, while Ship 24 had one of its three Raptor Vacuum engines replaced.

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On September 5th, SpaceX distributed a safety alert to Boca Chica’s few remaining residents, confirming that it wants to restart testing as early as Tuesday, September 6th. Especially as of late, that alert guarantees nothing, but it does at least open the door for SpaceX if Ship 24, Booster 7, and the positions of the stars happen to be in the right mood between 8am and 8pm CDT. Additional opportunities are available on September 7th, 8th, 9th, and 12th.

Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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Tesla analysts are expecting the stock to go Plaid Mode soon

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Credit: Tesla Mania

Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) has had a few weeks of overwhelmingly bullish events, and it is inciting several analysts to change their price targets as they expect the stock to potentially go Plaid Mode in the near future.

Over the past week, Tesla has not only posted record deliveries for a single quarter, but it has also rolled out its most robust Full Self-Driving (Supervised) update in a year. The new version is more capable than ever before.

Tesla Full Self-Driving v14.1 first impressions: Robotaxi-like features arrive

However, these are not the only things moving the company’s overall consensus on Wall Street toward a more bullish tone. There are, in fact, several things that Tesla has in the works that are inciting stronger expectations from analysts in New York.

TD Cowen

TD Cowen increased its price target for Tesla shares from $374 to $509 and gave the stock a ‘Buy’ rating, based on several factors.

Initially, Tesla’s positive deliveries report for Q3 set a bullish tone, which TD Cowen objectively evaluated and recognized as a strong sign. Additionally, the company’s firm stance on ensuring CEO Elon Musk is paid is a positive, as it keeps him with Tesla for more time.

Elon Musk: Trillionaire Tesla pay package is about influence, not wealth

Musk, who achieved each of the tranches on his last pay package, could obtain the elusive title as the world’s first-ever trillionaire, granted he helps Tesla grow considerably over the next decade.

Stifel

Stifel also increased its price target on Tesla from $440 to $483, citing the improvements Tesla made with its Full Self-Driving suite.

The rollout of FSD v14.1 has been a major step forward for the company. Although it’s in its early stages, Musk has said there will be improved versions coming within the next two weeks.

Stifel raises Tesla price target by 9.8% over FSD, Robotaxi advancements

Analysts at the firm also believe the company has a chance to push an Unsupervised version of FSD by the end of the year, but this seems like it’s out of the question currently.

It broke down the company’s FSD suite as worth $213 per share, while Robotaxi and Optimus had a $140 per share and $29 per share analysis, respectively.

Stifel sees Tesla as a major player not only in the self-driving industry but also in AI as a whole, which is something Musk has truly pushed for this year.

UBS

While many firms believe the company is on its way to doing great things and that stock prices will rise from their current level of roughly $430, other firms see it differently.

UBS said it still holds its ‘Sell’ rating on Tesla shares, but it did increase its price target from $215 to $247.

It said this week in a note to investors that it adjusted higher because of the positive deliveries and its potential value with AI and autonomy. However, it also remains cautious on the stock, especially considering the risks in Q4, as nobody truly knows how deliveries will stack up.

In the last month, Tesla shares are up 24 percent.

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Tesla lands permission to test Full Self-Driving in new country

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tesla showroom
(Credit: NicklasNilsso14)

Tesla has landed permission to begin testing its Full Self-Driving suite in a new country: Sweden.

Tesla has been working to expand its Full Self-Driving suite across the world. Currently, it is available in seven countries: the United States, Canada, Mexico, Puerto Rico, Australia, New Zealand, and China, where it is referred to as “City Autopilot.”

Capabilities of the Full Self-Driving suite differ in each region based on the approvals given to Tesla by regulatory agencies.

In Europe, Tesla has been attempting for a long time to launch FSD in various countries, but regulatory red tape has been prolonging the company’s ability to launch the suite.

However, Sweden appears to be ready to allow Tesla to test FSD in some passenger and public locations, according to the country’s Transport Agency.

On X, a Swedish Tesla owner named Alexander Kristensen, says he received direct confirmation from the Transport Agency that Tesla has “received permission to test automated vehicles.”

The full email said:

“Tesla received permission to test automated vehicles last week. This includes three vehicles and all state highways and expressways in Sweden.”

Tesla has already been working with the Swedish Transport Agency on the first steps of Full Self-Driving’s approval. The company and the Transport Agency spent two weeks assessing data gathered during a Formal Site Assessment Test, or SAT.

Based on the communication from the Transport Agency to Kristensen, it appears the company has passed the SAT and will now be able to perform its own testing within the market.

This approval seems similar to the approval Tesla received in U.S. states for Robotaxi operation. Nevada and Arizona have both given Tesla approval for Robotaxi testing, but passengers are not allowed in the vehicles quite yet.

Instead, company employees perform the testing, which is likely what will go on in Sweden until the Transport Agency gives the company a green light to roll FSD software out to customers.

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My Tesla did this on FSD (Supervised) v14.1 and the internet went crazy

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My Tesla did something on Full Self-Driving (Supervised) v14.1, and it garnered quite the response from the internet.

I received access to Tesla’s FSD v14.1 on Tuesday night, and by Wednesday, I was already using it and seeing all the progress the company had made from v13.2.9.

Tesla Full Self-Driving v14.1 first impressions: Robotaxi-like features arrive

However, there was one thing that it did during the drive that I shared on our social media accounts, and it really got a lot of interesting reactions from people from all corners of the world.

I’ll give some background about the situation: I was driving on Main Street in Dallastown, PA, and the route was about to take me left onto Pleasant Avenue. It is a tight and usually very congested intersection; Main Street is a popular route for many construction vehicles and even some tractor-trailers.

It is a pretty tight intersection for full-size trucks and larger passenger vehicles. It is not super tight for my Model Y, but it gets to feel congested at times, including with what happened yesterday.

The light when I approached the intersection was a green yield; there was also a solid green arrow at the beginning of my light cycle, but I had arrived after that had already turned into the green yield. Oncoming traffic had a green light.

My Model Y got out into the middle of the intersection, and the light turned yellow, then red. Most people, including myself, would have probably made the left turn after the light turned red since the car was already out in the intersection.

The Tesla, using FSD v14.1, did not. Instead, it chose to back up to the “Stop Here on Red” line, which is further back due to the tight turn the perpendicular traffic has:

As I mentioned, I would have probably taken the left turn. However, I believe the Tesla did not see the traffic that sat to the left, and because of this, it weighed the turn as a higher probability of an accident than if it were to just back up to the line.

If you look at these two screenshots from when the light was yellow and red, Tesla’s driver visualization does not have any idea what traffic is to the left on Pleasant Avenue:

I believe that, since FSD could not tell what traffic was down to the left, it chose to reverse.

People had some polarizing opinions on it:

As far as the legality of the move, it does not seem to be against Pennsylvania law to go through or choose to back up. I have seen many cars do both things over the course of my life of driving in this state, and neither has ever gotten anyone a ticket.

I think FSD just did what it felt was the safer option here.

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