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SpaceX leaps closer to launching NASA astronauts after parachute testing milestone

SpaceX says it has just passed a critical Crew Dragon parachute test milestone, taking the company a big step closer to launching NASA astronauts. (SpaceX)

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SpaceX says it has completed a test campaign of Crew Dragon’s upgrade parachutes, reaching a milestone that CEO Elon Musk recently described as a necessity before the spacecraft can be certified to launch NASA astronauts.

Beginning in late-October 2019, SpaceX kicked off an extensive test campaign of Crew Dragon’s recently-upgraded “Mark 3” parachute system, performing more than a dozen consecutively successful tests in a single week. SpaceX started with high-stress single-chute tests simulating far higher loads than Crew Dragon could ever technically exhibit in flight, resulting in two back-to-back failures.

SpaceX further improved the design with supplier Airborne Systems and began testing anew, successfully completing 10 single-chute tests in a row in a matter of days. Immediately after individual testing was completed as planned, SpaceX began multi-chute tests, initially simulating Crew Dragon’s ability to ensure a soft and survivable landing even if one of its four parachutes fully fails before splashdown.

Most recently, SpaceX announced on December 4th that it had completed the 7th consecutively successful multi-chute drop test, leaving three additional tests to go before reaching its goal of at least 10 consecutive successes.

Now, a bit less than three weeks after that 7th test, SpaceX says it has completed the 10th multi-chute drop test of Crew Dragon’s upgraded Mk3 parachutes, achieving the tentative goals set by CEO Elon Musk and NASA administrator Jim Bridenstine just two months ago. By the numbers, since Bridenstine first announced his expectation of “as many as 10 drop tests between now and the end of the year”, SpaceX alone has completed at least 20 successful tests in a row in the last eight weeks, averaging more than one test every three days.

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“We could see as many as 10 drop tests between now and the end of the year and depending on how the next 10 drop tests go, we will know how many more drops tests we are going to add.”

Jim Bridenstine, October 10th, 2019

As Bridenstine indicated, this does not necessarily guarantee that NASA, SpaceX, or both entities won’t choose to perform additional tests, but a full 20 successful parachute tests in a row is an undeniable sign that Crew Dragon’s latest upgrades are bearing fruit. In simpler terms, SpaceX and Crew Dragon should be closer than ever to achieving the requirements NASA has laid out to certify spacecraft for human spaceflight.

With a successful orbital launch and recovery (including parachutes) already under its belt, Crew Dragon’s next milestone – scheduled to launch no earlier than (NET) January 11th – is a suborbital In-Flight Abort (IFA) test that will technically serve as the second full-system recovery test. If that launch, abort, and Atlantic Ocean contingency splashdown go as planned, there is a very good chance that NASA will finally close out SpaceX’s parachute systems for Crew Dragon’s first crewed launch.

On November 13th, SpaceX successfully static fired Crew Dragon’s SuperDraco engines in anticipation of a critical In-Flight Abort (IFA) test. (SpaceX)
SpaceX has finally set the date for Crew Dragon's In-Flight Abort test. (Teslarati - Pauline Acalin)
Excluding Falcon 9, all pieces of SpaceX’s first astronaut-rated Crew Dragon spacecraft are visible in this one frame. (Teslarati – Pauline Acalin)

Known as Demo-2, SpaceX has said that the mission’s Falcon 9 and Crew Dragon hardware will be ready for launch as early as late-December. If Dragon’s IFA test and any additional subsystem tests run into problems, Demo-2 hardware will of course no longer be ready, per se, but if those tests are completed without issue, SpaceX has indicated that Crew Dragon’s first astronaut launch could follow as soon as February or March 2020.

The road to SpaceX’s first human launch has been long and winding, but – barring calamity – the milestone appears, at long last, to be well within reach. Accounting for potential technical or NASA paperwork-related delays, it’s extremely likely that the first NASA astronauts will be at the helm of a Crew Dragon spacecraft on top of a Falcon 9 rocket less than six months from now.

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Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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Tesla has best month ever in Turkey with drastic spike in sales

Tesla managed to sell 8,730 Model Y vehicles in Turkey, outpacing almost every competitor by a substantial margin. Only one brand sold better than Tesla in August in Turkey, and it was Renault.

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla had its best monthly performance ever in Turkey in August, thanks to a drastic spike in sales.

Tesla saw an 86 percent bump in sales of the new Model Y in Turkey in August compared to July, dominating the market.

The performance was one of Tesla’s best in the market, and the company’s sales for the month accounted for half of all EV sales in Turkey for August, as it dominated and led BYD, which was the second-best-selling brand with just 1,639 units sold.

Tesla managed to sell 8,730 Model Y vehicles in Turkey, outpacing almost every competitor by a substantial margin. Only one brand sold better than Tesla in August in Turkey, and it was Renault.

Electric vehicles are, in some ways, more desirable than their gas counterparts in Turkey for several reasons. Most of the reasoning is financial.

First, EVs are subject to a lower Special Consumption Tax in Turkey. EVs can range from 25 percent to up to 170 percent, but this is less than the 70 to 220 percent rate that gas-powered vehicles can face. The tax is dependent on engine size.

Elon Musk courted to build a Tesla factory in Turkey

Additionally, EVs are exempt from the annual Motor Vehicle Tax for the first ten years, providing consumers with a long-term ownership advantage. There are also credits that can amount to $30,000 in breaks, which makes them more accessible and brings down the cost of ownership.

Let’s not forget the other advantages that are felt regardless of country: cheaper fuel costs, reduced maintenance, and improved performance.

The base Model Y is the only configuration available in Turkey currently.

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Tesla is upgrading airbag safety through a crazy software update

“This upgrade builds upon your vehicle’s superior crash protection by now using Tesla Vision to help offer some of the most cutting-edge airbag performance in the event of a frontal crash.”

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(Credit: Tesla)

Tesla is upgrading airbag safety through a crazy software update, which will utilize the company’s vision-first approach to enable better protection in the event of an accident.

Over the years, Tesla has gained an incredible reputation for prioritizing safety in its vehicles, with crash test ratings at the forefront of its engineers’ minds.

This has led to Tesla gaining numerous five-star safety ratings and awards related to safety. It is not just a statistical thing, either. In the real world, we’ve seen Teslas demonstrate some impressive examples of crash safety.

Everything from that glass roof not caving in when a tree falls on it to a Model Y surviving a drive off a cliff has been recorded.

However, Tesla is always looking to improve safety, and unlike most companies, it does not need a physical hardware update to do so. It can enhance features such as crash response and airbag performance through Over-the-Air software updates, which download automatically to the vehicle.

In Tesla’s 2025.32 Software Update, the company is rolling out a Frontal Airbag System Enhancement, which aims to use Tesla Vision, the company’s camera-based approach to self-driving, to keep occupants safe.

The release notes state (via NotaTeslaApp):

“This upgrade builds upon your vehicle’s superior crash protection by now using Tesla Vision to help offer some of the most cutting-edge airbag performance in the event of a frontal crash. Building on top of regulatory and industry crash testing, this release enables front airbags to begin to inflate and restrain occupants earlier, in a way that only Tesla’s integrated systems are capable of doing, making your car safer over time.”

The use of cameras to predict a better time to restrain occupants with seatbelts and inflate airbags prior to a collision is a fantastic way to prevent injuries and limit harm done to those in the vehicle.

The feature is currently limited to the Model Y.

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Elon Musk says this Tesla project will make up vast majority of company value

“~80% of Tesla’s value will be Optimus,” Musk said.

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(Credit: Ryan Lash/TED)

Tesla CEO Elon Musk has not shied away from the idea that the company’s value is not reliant on its performance as an automaker.

That idea is even more prudent in today’s landscape than ever, especially as Tesla leans more on its prowess as an AI, autonomy, and robotics company rather than one that just makes electric cars.

Musk solidified that point on Monday, as he revealed that he believes the vast majority of Tesla’s valuation will rely on a project that the company has been developing for several years.

The CEO has long discussed how robotics will revolutionize the labor landscape in factories, households, and other workplaces.

He believes Optimus, as it is rolled out in the coming years, will truly take over as the main contributor to Tesla’s valuation, being worth about 80 percent of the company’s total market cap:

This is a point Musk has previously discussed, but he has never listed a specific number in terms of what Optimus could mean to Tesla. In the past, he’s mentioned Optimus’s ability to generate long-term revenue potential, its value to the company, and its impact on the market overall.

Musk has said Optimus has the potential to be worth over $10 trillion in revenue:

“It’s one of those things where I think long term, Optimus will be — Optimus has the potential to be north of $10 trillion in revenue, like it’s really bananas. So, that, you can obviously afford a lot of training compute in that situation. In fact, even $500 billion training compute in that situation would be quite a good deal.”

Optimus has been a main point of discussion amongst analysts who cover the company. Piper Sandler recently released a note that said “Optimus should be moving/staging parts within Tesla’s facilities” by this time next year.

Analysts also said that Optimus could be a major benefit for companies to bring in to handle tedious tasks in manufacturing settings. If it is able to work 18-hour shifts, the firm believes Tesla could price it at $100,000 per unit.

Tesla talks Semi ramp, Optimus, Robotaxi rollout, FSD with Wall Street firm

Other firms, like Morgan Stanley, have said Tesla could replace its own staff by 10 percent with Optimus, saving the company $2.5 billion.

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