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SpaceX leaps closer to launching NASA astronauts after parachute testing milestone

SpaceX says it has just passed a critical Crew Dragon parachute test milestone, taking the company a big step closer to launching NASA astronauts. (SpaceX)

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SpaceX says it has completed a test campaign of Crew Dragon’s upgrade parachutes, reaching a milestone that CEO Elon Musk recently described as a necessity before the spacecraft can be certified to launch NASA astronauts.

Beginning in late-October 2019, SpaceX kicked off an extensive test campaign of Crew Dragon’s recently-upgraded “Mark 3” parachute system, performing more than a dozen consecutively successful tests in a single week. SpaceX started with high-stress single-chute tests simulating far higher loads than Crew Dragon could ever technically exhibit in flight, resulting in two back-to-back failures.

SpaceX further improved the design with supplier Airborne Systems and began testing anew, successfully completing 10 single-chute tests in a row in a matter of days. Immediately after individual testing was completed as planned, SpaceX began multi-chute tests, initially simulating Crew Dragon’s ability to ensure a soft and survivable landing even if one of its four parachutes fully fails before splashdown.

Most recently, SpaceX announced on December 4th that it had completed the 7th consecutively successful multi-chute drop test, leaving three additional tests to go before reaching its goal of at least 10 consecutive successes.

Now, a bit less than three weeks after that 7th test, SpaceX says it has completed the 10th multi-chute drop test of Crew Dragon’s upgraded Mk3 parachutes, achieving the tentative goals set by CEO Elon Musk and NASA administrator Jim Bridenstine just two months ago. By the numbers, since Bridenstine first announced his expectation of “as many as 10 drop tests between now and the end of the year”, SpaceX alone has completed at least 20 successful tests in a row in the last eight weeks, averaging more than one test every three days.

“We could see as many as 10 drop tests between now and the end of the year and depending on how the next 10 drop tests go, we will know how many more drops tests we are going to add.”

Jim Bridenstine, October 10th, 2019

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As Bridenstine indicated, this does not necessarily guarantee that NASA, SpaceX, or both entities won’t choose to perform additional tests, but a full 20 successful parachute tests in a row is an undeniable sign that Crew Dragon’s latest upgrades are bearing fruit. In simpler terms, SpaceX and Crew Dragon should be closer than ever to achieving the requirements NASA has laid out to certify spacecraft for human spaceflight.

With a successful orbital launch and recovery (including parachutes) already under its belt, Crew Dragon’s next milestone – scheduled to launch no earlier than (NET) January 11th – is a suborbital In-Flight Abort (IFA) test that will technically serve as the second full-system recovery test. If that launch, abort, and Atlantic Ocean contingency splashdown go as planned, there is a very good chance that NASA will finally close out SpaceX’s parachute systems for Crew Dragon’s first crewed launch.

On November 13th, SpaceX successfully static fired Crew Dragon’s SuperDraco engines in anticipation of a critical In-Flight Abort (IFA) test. (SpaceX)
SpaceX has finally set the date for Crew Dragon's In-Flight Abort test. (Teslarati - Pauline Acalin)
Excluding Falcon 9, all pieces of SpaceX’s first astronaut-rated Crew Dragon spacecraft are visible in this one frame. (Teslarati – Pauline Acalin)

Known as Demo-2, SpaceX has said that the mission’s Falcon 9 and Crew Dragon hardware will be ready for launch as early as late-December. If Dragon’s IFA test and any additional subsystem tests run into problems, Demo-2 hardware will of course no longer be ready, per se, but if those tests are completed without issue, SpaceX has indicated that Crew Dragon’s first astronaut launch could follow as soon as February or March 2020.

The road to SpaceX’s first human launch has been long and winding, but – barring calamity – the milestone appears, at long last, to be well within reach. Accounting for potential technical or NASA paperwork-related delays, it’s extremely likely that the first NASA astronauts will be at the helm of a Crew Dragon spacecraft on top of a Falcon 9 rocket less than six months from now.

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Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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Why Elon Musk’s target date for buying an Optimus robot is harder than it sounds

Musk says China’s magnet export ban cost Optimus months, and robot hands remain shockingly hard.

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Concept rendering of Tesla Optimus in mass production

Elon Musk says China’s export curbs on magnets used in electric motors set back Tesla’s Optimus program by two to three months, and that the robot’s hands remain the hardest part of the project. He made the comments Saturday during a live interview with Tesla Owners Silicon Valley at the X Takeover event at Giga Texas, in front of roughly 2,000 attendees. The Optimus discussion begins around the 49 minute mark of the stream.

On the hands, Musk was blunt and noted that a general purpose humanoid needs fine motor skills that are “incredibly difficult to get right. Shockingly difficult,” he said in the interview. He pointed to a problem he says no one has demonstrated yet: “One of the hardest things also generally is to do precision and force at the same time,” such as driving a small self tapping screw into wood. Touch sensors add another layer, since it is “actually kind of hard to get touch sensors that elastically deform and can handle high cycle life and it won’t just break after a few thousand cycles.”

He also took aim at rival robot videos. “Any complicated looking robot demo, it’s a canned demo. It’s not real,” Musk said, adding that real AI means showing a robot something it has never seen and watching it still cope, the way FSD handles a city it has never driven.

Musk expects the Optimus ramp to be slower than a new vehicle production ramp. “The initial part of that S curve of production ramp is going to be very slow at the beginning,” Musk said, partly because “unlike cars, there’s no pre existing supply chain for robot stuff.” That echoes his July reply on X that Optimus production “will be extremely slow at first, as everything is new.”

The magnet disclosure puts a number on a problem Musk first raised in 2025. He said China “prevented the export of magnets for use in electric motors” and that it “set back the Optimus program by like two or three months.” Then he added: “We had robots with no arms.” Tesla’s fix is to bring the supply chain home. “You’ve got to be able to make all the parts domestically,” he said. Teslarati reported in April 2025 that Musk tied the issue to permanent magnets in the arm actuators, where motors have to be as small as possible.

Tesla Optimus V3 hand and arm details revealed in new patents

Production is moving regardless, with a reported internal goal of more than 1,000 a week by the end of 2026. Teslarati recently covered how Tesla is certifying supply partners in China for Optimus parts, while the company’s hand design has been the subject of new patent filings.

Musk has said he wants Optimus available to the public by late 2027, though Tesla has not confirmed that date or published updated production figures.

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Investor's Corner

Elon Musk drops a Thanksgiving hint about Starship’s biggest test yet

Elon Musk says Starship Flight 15 will try to catch the ship itself, a first.

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Elon Musk says SpaceX’s next Starship flight will try something nobody has done before, by catching the ship itself. Speaking to roughly 2,000 people at the X Takeover event at Giga Texas on Saturday, Musk said Flight 15 is about four to six weeks away and “probably launches a little bit before Thanksgiving, is my guess.”

That is a slip from earlier reporting, which had pointed to a launch as early as October 19. Musk explained why the date keeps moving. “We’re making a bunch of improvements to the rocket between every flight,” he said, adding that there are often hundreds, sometimes thousands, of small changes. This time the list is short, “but some of them take a fair bit of work and we’ve got to go inside the tank to make some of these changes.”

“We’re going to try to catch the ship, which is a super big deal,” Musk said. “If we do so, that’ll be the first time that there’s been full recovery of an orbital class rocket.” SpaceX has already caught the Super Heavy booster with the tower’s mechanical arms, and has talked about catching the ship since late 2025, but the upper stage has never been caught.

Musk also laid out what comes after. “The next big milestone would be to refly both the booster and the ship,” he said, describing a Flight 16 where “all parts of an orbital rocket are reflown.”

The reason SpaceX wants this comes down to cost and cadence. Every Starship ship so far has ended its flight in the ocean, and SpaceX expects most of those water landings to end in fireballs. A ship that returns to Starbase intact can be inspected and flown again. SpaceX’s IPO filing, says Starship V3 is designed to deliver 100 metric tons to orbit in a fully reusable configuration, that SpaceX aims to cut the cost to reach orbit by 99% or more versus the historical average, and that tower catches should allow “multiple launches per day.”

The payoff goes beyond cheaper launches. The next generation Starlink V3 satellites are too large for Falcon 9 and can only fly on Starship, which can carry up to 60 per flight. Flight 14 on September 28 deployed the first 26 of them after Starship reached orbit despite an early engine shutdown, as Teslarati reported. Musk blamed engine computer software, and said the heat shield “was extremely robust,” which he claimed in August had solved Starship’s biggest challenge.

NASA’s Moon plans depend on the same capability. NASA’s inspector general has described a lander mission that needs a propellant depot in low Earth orbit and more than 10 tanker flights, with SpaceX targeting one tanker launch every six days. That schedule only works if ships and boosters come back fast and fly again. Also, ship to ship propellant transfer has not been attempted yet.

One interesting hurdle yet to be explored is bringing the ship back to the launch site, with reentry over land, which will undoubtedly come with a lot of aviation safety reviews.

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Lifestyle

Tesla’s mirrorless Cybercab will give riders a visibility upgrade

Tesla engineer confirms Cybercab update letting riders pull up rear and repeater cameras on demand.

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Tesla Cybercab camera visibility for passengers (Credit: Dan Burkland via X)
Tesla Cybercab camera visibility for passengers (Credit: Dan Burkland via X)

Tesla is working on a Cybercab update that would let passengers pull up the vehicle’s rear and side cameras on demand, and the request came straight from a rider.

The exchange played out on X late Friday. Cybercab rider Dan Burkland shared photos of the two-seater’s cabin screen after an evening ride, praised the UI team’s work, and left one request: let riders open the rear and repeater cameras whenever they want, “especially for peace of mind.” Tesla UI software engineer Evan (@CarCoder) answered with two words: “In development.”

The idea fits a pattern Teslarati has tracked since public rides began. Days after paid Cybercab service opened in Austin, Tesla sent riders a survey that asked them to rate the touchscreen, the app and the cabin, and to pick the features they wanted most. We reported on that survey in September, and a camera view is the kind of small software change Tesla can push quickly if riders keep asking.

It also speaks to something unique about the vehicle. With no steering wheel, no pedals and no driver, passengers have no mirror to check and no way to see behind them. The hardware is clearly built for camera awareness, from the repeater cameras to the rear camera. Letting a passenger look through those same cameras would give a nervous first time rider a way to confirm what is around the car.

The timing matters because the fleet is growing fast. Tesla’s Robotaxi account said on Saturday that more than 300 Cybercabs are now serving Austin, an eightfold increase in 30 days, and Tesla AI chief Ashok Elluswamy named Dallas as the next city. More cars and more cities mean more people riding in a driverless vehicle for the first time, which is exactly when small trust features carry weight.

For now, the feature is confirmed only as in development. If Tesla follows its usual pattern with Cybercab software, riders could see it appear in a point release without any announcement, and Teslarati will watch for it.

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