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SpaceX ties 42-year-old Soviet record with last launch of 2022
SpaceX has tied a 42-year-old record with its 61st and final Falcon rocket launch of 2022.
Also marking the latest in a calendar year SpaceX has launched a rocket, a Falcon 9 lifted off from the company’s Vandenberg Space Force Base (VSFB) SLC-4E pad at 11:38 pm PST, Thursday, December 29th (7:38 UTC 30 Dec) carrying a tiny Earth observation satellite for Israeli company ImageSat International. Built by Israeli Aircraft Industries, the EROS C3 space telescope is the third of its kind and likely weighed just 400 kilograms (~900 lb) at liftoff, utilizing less than 1/40th of Falcon 9’s available performance in a reusable configuration.
The extremely light payload precluded the need for SpaceX to send drone ship Of Course I Still Love You (OCISLY) several hundred kilometers into the Pacific Ocean, likely saving several hundred thousand dollars. Instead, Falcon 9 booster B1061 lifted off for the 11th time, carried EROS C3 and an expendable Falcon 9 upper stage most of the way into space, and then boosted back towards the California coast to land less than a quarter-mile from SLC-4E.
EROS C3 was SpaceX’s 170th consecutively successful Falcon launch, 160th successful landing, and 132nd launch with a reused booster. But more importantly, the mission was also SpaceX’s 61st successful Falcon launch this year, tying a record that hasn’t been touched since 1980.
The update that's rolling out to the fleet makes full use of the front and rear steering travel to minimize turning circle. In this case a reduction of 1.6 feet just over the air— Wes (@wmorrill3) April 16, 2024
In 1980, after two decades of gradual buildup, the Soviet Union managed to launch variants of its R-7 workhorse rocket 64 times in one calendar year. 61 of those launches were successful, setting a record that has been left unchallenged for decades. Only the R-7 family ever posed a threat to its own record, managing 55 successful launches in 1988, but its launch cadence – heavily driven by disposable Cold War reconnaissance satellites – plummeted with the fall of the Soviet Union and has never recovered.
Only in 2022, almost half a century later, has the R-7 family finally found a worthy challenger for its annual launch cadence record. That the challenger is a private company that had to legally force its way into parts of the US launch industry is arguably one of the deepest possible condemnations of the relative stagnancy US space launch capabilities experienced after the Apollo Program. But it also makes SpaceX’s achievement – accomplished with rockets that did not exist before the late 2000s – even more impressive.
Similar to the Soviet peak, an extraordinary period during which the R-7 family successfully launched 1181 times in 22 years, there is one main driving force behind the recent surge in SpaceX’s launch cadence. But instead of the Cold War, the force behind Falcon’s rise is SpaceX’s own constellation of Starlink internet satellites. Since operational launches began in November 2019, Starlink satellites were the primary payload on 66 of the last 125 Falcon launches. In 2022 alone, SpaceX launched 34 Starlink missions.
In 2021, SpaceX completed 31 Falcon 9 launches, 17 of which were Starlink missions. In 2022, SpaceX’s 61 Falcon launches nearly doubled that peak year over year. For a few reasons, that annual doubling is unlikely to repeat itself anytime soon, if ever, but CEO Elon Musk has still issued SpaceX a target of 100 launches in 2023 – a 64% increase year-over-year.
Even that target will be a major challenge, but the EROS C3 mission holds a clue about one of the ways SpaceX can squeeze more out of its existing rockets and launch pads without needing to smash records. SpaceX’s busiest pad, Cape Canaveral’s LC-40, managed nine launches in the last three months of 2022. Its Kennedy Space Center LC-39A pad managed 18 launches over the year. Finally, EROS C3 was SLC-4E’s 13th launch of 2022.
While the California pad came in last, it does not have the same cadence constraints (Dragon and Falcon Heavy missions) as Pad 39A. And less than 12 days ago, SpaceX’s West Coast SLC-4E helped launch NASA and France’s SWOT water observation satellite. Having repeatedly demonstrated the ability to launch two Falcon 9 rockets in less than 12 days, SLC-4E has the potential to carry much more weight in the future. If SpaceX can improve the pad’s ease of use, it could feasibly support 20-25 launches per year, and potentially 30+ with further optimization.
With SLC-4E operating at a cadence of 25 launches per year and LC-40 and LC-39A both operating as-is, SpaceX could launch approximately 80 Falcon rockets in 2023. Ultimately, if SpaceX can maintain the Falcon family’s unprecedented streak of successful launches and improve the uptime of its existing pads, it’s hard to see the R-7 family’s annual cadence record making it to 2024. SpaceX also has a clear (but steep) path to 90+ Falcon launches next year, though simply mirroring its 2022 performance would still be an extraordinary feat.
Elon Musk
SpaceX issues statement on Starship V3 Booster 18 anomaly
The incident unfolded during gas-system pressure testing at the company’s Massey facility in Starbase, Texas.
SpaceX has issued an initial statement about Starship Booster 18’s anomaly early Friday. The incident unfolded during gas-system pressure testing at the company’s Massey facility in Starbase, Texas.
SpaceX’s initial comment
As per SpaceX in a post on its official account on social media platform X, Booster 18 was undergoing gas system pressure tests when the anomaly happened. Despite the nature of the incident, the company emphasized that no propellant was loaded, no engines were installed, and personnel were kept at a safe distance from the booster, resulting in zero injuries.
“Booster 18 suffered an anomaly during gas system pressure testing that we were conducting in advance of structural proof testing. No propellant was on the vehicle, and engines were not yet installed. The teams need time to investigate before we are confident of the cause. No one was injured as we maintain a safe distance for personnel during this type of testing. The site remains clear and we are working plans to safely reenter the site,” SpaceX wrote in its post on X.
Incident and aftermath
Livestream footage from LabPadre showed Booster 18’s lower half crumpling around the liquid oxygen tank area at approximately 4:04 a.m. CT. Subsequent images posted by on-site observers revealed extensive deformation across the booster’s lower structure. Needless to say, spaceflight observers have noted that Booster 18 would likely be a complete loss due to its anomaly.
Booster 18 had rolled out only a day earlier and was one of the first vehicles in the Starship V3 program. The V3 series incorporates structural reinforcements and reliability upgrades intended to prepare Starship for rapid-reuse testing and eventual tower-catch operations. Elon Musk has been optimistic about Starship V3, previously noting on X that the spacecraft might be able to complete initial missions to Mars.
Investor's Corner
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) received fresh support from Piper Sandler this week after analysts toured the Fremont Factory and tested the company’s latest Full Self-Driving software. The firm reaffirmed its $500 price target, stating that FSD V14 delivered a notably smooth robotaxi demonstration and may already perform at levels comparable to, if not better than, average human drivers.
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Analysts highlight autonomy progress
During more than 75 minutes of focused discussions, analysts reportedly focused on FSD v14’s updates. Piper Sandler’s team pointed to meaningful strides in perception, object handling, and overall ride smoothness during the robotaxi demo.
The visit also included discussions on updates to Tesla’s in-house chip initiatives, its Optimus program, and the growth of the company’s battery storage business. Analysts noted that Tesla continues refining cost structures and capital expenditure expectations, which are key elements in future margin recovery, as noted in a Yahoo Finance report.
Analyst Alexander Potter noted that “we think FSD is a truly impressive product that is (probably) already better at driving than the average American.” This conclusion was strengthened by what he described as a “flawless robotaxi ride to the hotel.”
Street targets diverge on TSLA
While Piper Sandler stands by its $500 target, it is not the highest estimate on the Street. Wedbush, for one, has a $600 per share price target for TSLA stock.
Other institutions have also weighed in on TSLA stock as of late. HSBC reiterated a Reduce rating with a $131 target, citing a gap between earnings fundamentals and the company’s market value. By contrast, TD Cowen maintained a Buy rating and a $509 target, pointing to strong autonomous driving demonstrations in Austin and the pace of software-driven improvements.
Stifel analysts also lifted their price target for Tesla to $508 per share over the company’s ongoing robotaxi and FSD programs.
Elon Musk
SpaceX Starship Version 3 booster crumples in early testing
Photos of the incident’s aftermath suggest that Booster 18 will likely be retired.
SpaceX’s new Starship first-stage booster, Booster 18, suffered major damage early Friday during its first round of testing in Starbase, Texas, just one day after rolling out of the factory.
Based on videos of the incident, the lower section of the rocket booster appeared to crumple during a pressurization test. Photos of the incident’s aftermath suggest that Booster 18 will likely be retired.
Booster test failure
SpaceX began structural and propellant-system verification tests on Booster 18 Thursday night at the Massey’s Test Site, only a few miles from Starbase’s production facilities, as noted in an Ars Technica report. At 4:04 a.m. CT on Friday, a livestream from LabPadre Space captured the booster’s lower half experiencing a sudden destructive event around its liquid oxygen tank section. Post-incident images, shared on X by @StarshipGazer, showed notable deformation in the booster’s lower structure.
Neither SpaceX nor Elon Musk had commented as of Friday morning, but the vehicle’s condition suggests it is likely a complete loss. This is quite unfortunate, as Booster 18 is already part of the Starship V3 program, which includes design fixes and upgrades intended to improve reliability. While SpaceX maintains a rather rapid Starship production line in Starbase, Booster 18 was generally expected to validate the improvements implemented in the V3 program.
Tight deadlines
SpaceX needs Starship boosters and upper stages to begin demonstrating rapid reuse, tower catches, and early operational Starlink missions over the next two years. More critically, NASA’s Artemis program depends on an on-orbit refueling test in the second half of 2026, a requirement for the vehicle’s expected crewed lunar landing around 2028.
While SpaceX is known for diagnosing failures quickly and returning to testing at unmatched speed, losing the newest-generation booster at the very start of its campaign highlights the immense challenge involved in scaling Starship into a reliable, high-cadence launch system. SpaceX, however, is known for getting things done quickly, so it would not be a surprise if the company manages to figure out what happened to Booster 18 in the near future.
SpaceX issues statement on Starship V3 Booster 18 anomaly
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
