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SpaceX targeting 100 launches in 2023

SpaceX CEO Elon Musk has a 2023 launch cadence goal even loftier than his 2022 target. (SpaceX)

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CEO Elon Musk says that SpaceX is aiming to complete up to 100 launches in 2023 while the company continues to set records in 2022.

In the history of orbital spaceflight, no family of rockets – let alone a single variant like Falcon 9 – has completed more than 61 successful launches in one calendar year. The cadence target Musk is suggesting is unprecedented and would be an extraordinary challenge even for SpaceX, a company that just completed its 50th successful Falcon 9 launch in a little over 12 months. However, it’s less impossible than it sounds.

After a few years of stagnation at a cadence of roughly 15-20 launches per year from 2017 through 2019, and an impressive doubling from 2019 to 2020 as Starlink entered its buildout phase, SpaceX effectively flipped a switch in 2021. 2020 appears to have been a sort of trial run, demonstrating that SpaceX was able to launch one Falcon 9 rocket every two weeks. At 26 launches for the year, it broke SpaceX’s previous record – 21 launches, set in 2018 – by almost 25%. But something changed in 2021.

In the first half of the year, SpaceX launched 20 times, demonstrating an unexpected 50% improvement over 2020’s annual cadence. In the second half of the year, SpaceX had two strange gaps of almost two months each, during which it didn’t once. In the other two months, though, SpaceX launched 11 times, effectively demonstrating another launch cadence improvement of more than 50% over the first half of the year. Finally, SpaceX completed 6 of those 11 launches in a period of 4 weeks near the end of the year – an annual cadence of 78 launches if sustained for a full year.

Thus far, 2022 has been an eight-month extension of the last few weeks of 2021. SpaceX even appears to have improved upon itself again, accelerating its launch cadence throughout the year. In the first half of the year, SpaceX managed 27 Falcon 9 launches, nearly beating the 31-launch record it set in 2021 in half the time and demonstrating an annual cadence of up to 54 launches per year if sustained.

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Instead of continuing that already impressive pace in the second half of the year, SpaceX launched six times in July and another six times in August, sustaining an annualized cadence of 72 launches per year for two full months. At the moment, that could be considered a fluke. But if SpaceX manages another six launches in September, which is the plan, it can likely be deemed a new normal for Falcon 9 launch cadence.

From 60 to 100

To achieve 100 Falcon launches in 2023, SpaceX would need to find a way to launch an average of eight times per month, an improvement of 33% over the six-launch months the company appears to be increasingly comfortable with. Likely thanks to intentional planning and overengineering done years in advance of the payoff, SpaceX’s fleet of Falcon launch pads and recovery ships – drone ship landing platforms especially – appear to be capable of achieving that lofty cadence goal.

If SpaceX continues its recent pace of six launches per month, it could complete more than 60 launches in 2022. (Richard Angle)

Assuming all three pads were able to consistently operate at their fastest demonstrated turnaround times with little to no downtime, they could theoretically support around 115 launches per year. SpaceX drone ship availability is another concern, but the current fleet of three ships can theoretically support 100 Falcon 9 landings in one year if each ship is able to recover one booster every 11 days. Of course, achieving such tight margins would require extremely inflexible scheduling and leave almost no margin for error – perhaps just a day or less per launch, on average.

Without significant upgrades, either feat would be extremely impressive on its own. Stacking those challenges, launching 100 times in 2023 would require an extraordinary effort and a good amount of luck. But it’s far from impossible. Gven the abrupt and impressive progress SpaceX has made and continues to make in 2021 and 2022, it’s also a reasonable goal: far from easy but well within reach with some moderate improvements.

Finally, Musk’s calculus may include a number of launches of SpaceX’s next-generation Starship rocket, which would make the task even more achievable for Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy. Time will tell, and SpaceX’s activity in the last four months of 2022 will make it clear whether 2023’s 100-launch target is truly feasible.

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Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

Elon Musk

Kia gains Tesla Supercharger access and issues a big apology

Kia gained Tesla Supercharger access and respect from Tesla fans in the same day.

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Kia EV6, EV9 and Niro Owners Gain Access to Over 21,500 Tesla Superchargers

Kia has announced that owners of the EV6, EV9, and Niro EVs have officially gained access to over 21,500 Tesla Supercharger locations in North America.

However, its announcement also contained an apology to Tesla.

First, Kia said that its three EV offerings will have access to Tesla’s expansive Supercharger Network. More than 40,000 DC fast chargers are available to Kia EV drivers, a major uptick as Tesla Supercharger access nearly doubles the number of accessible piles.

Sean Yoon, President of Kia North America and Kia America, said:

“Kia is committed to an exceptional ownership experience, and expanding the network of available DC fast chargers to our EV customers is an important component to maintaining the brand’s leadership in electrified mobility. Now, with access to the Tesla Supercharger network of DC fast chargers, our EV owners can feel even more confident in their decision to purchase or lease a fully electric Kia vehicle.”

Kia owners who have a CCS1 Charging Port will have access to an NACS adapter through dealerships. This will enable compatibility, as current inlets are not NACS, the port that Tesla utilizes.

However, Kia will eliminate the need for this adapter starting with the 2025 EV6 and 2026 EV9. These will come standard with NACS inlets.

We mentioned Kia included somewhat of an apology to Tesla, which is related to social media posts from “certain Nordic distributors,” as the company puts it:

Kia said in its announcement:

Kia America is aware of marketing posts by certain Nordic distributors. These initiatives were developed entirely independently by those distributors, without direction from Kia AmericaKia Europe or Kia Global. We want it to be clear that these posts do not reflect the position of Kia America, and we remain committed to clear and professional communication that reflects our values.”

The company also said that it “condemns the recent attacks that disrupt the availability of convenient and affordable charging for our customers.”

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Tesla adds new child protection feature to mobile app

Tesla is rolling out within its mobile app a new feature that aims to save the lives of those forgotten in the car.

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla is bolstering its in-car safety system with the addition of a new feature that aims to protect children left in the vehicle, an extension of a feature it introduced with the addition of 4D radar systems.

Children are, unfortunately, victims of accidents even when a vehicle is not in motion. A report from 2024 noted that 37 children under the age of 15 die each year because they are left in cars, usually dying from heatstroke.

Tesla has made a few attempts to eliminate the possibility of this happening. Back in September, coding from Software Update 2024.32 noted that the company would be using an alert system to warn people of children left behind:

Tesla set to roll out new child safety and navigation features, coding shows

This was enabled by the use of a wave sensor within the cabin, a piece of tech Teslarati found in a filing back in 2021 with the FCC.

The entire idea behind this addition to the vehicles was to alert owners if there were passengers left in the car.

Now, Tesla is adding another level of this to its mobile app, according to a decompile of the Version 4.44.0 update, which is rolling out to customers now.

Tesla App Updates on X revealed a “Child Left Alone Detection” feature in the new app version, which has a few strings from a software perspective:

  • Cannot turn off climate when Child Left Alone Detection is active
  • Climate failed to start. Climate is unavailable when Child Left Alone Detection is active.
  • Climate controls are disabled when Child Left Alone Detection is active
  • Unable to start software update while a child is detected in your vehicle

It appears that, if the vehicle detects a child or another occupant in the car, climate controls will be disabled through the app in an attempt to maintain a proper cabin temperature. Turning the temperature up or even turning climate control off from the app will not be possible.

This is a major update to this feature as it only bolsters the safety of the occupants in the event that they are left behind. Of course, many of us might ask, “How do you leave a child in the car?”

However, it happens, as past events have shown, and this is a great way to eliminate it from happening in Tesla vehicles.

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Tesla FSD ruins other intelligent driving systems for NIO Superfan influencer

“Since I drove FSD, I have been disenchanted with all the ‘driving assistance’ of domestic brands,” Lee wrote.

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Tesla FSD Unsupervised Giga Texas
Credit: Tesla AI/X

Tesla Full Self-Driving (FSD) has been making waves in China, with owners pushing the system to its limits on what appears to be a regular basis. Videos of Tesla drivers in China show FSD navigating the trickiest of roads, from busy city streets to narrow, unpaved paths in rural areas.

And as per an influencer and NIO superfan, FSD is ruining other driver-assist systems from other automakers in China.

FSD Ruins It For Influencer

China-based influencer and NIO superfan Andy Lee recently shared his thoughts about FSD on social media. As per Lee, Chinese intelligent driving systems are overhyped by marketing. But once he personally experienced FSD’s capabilities, he became disillusioned with the offerings of domestic carmakers.

“Since I drove FSD, I have been disenchanted with all the ‘driving assistance’ of domestic brands. I once thought that the ‘driving assistance’ of domestic brands could beat FSD in seconds, but it seems that I was wrong. Not only did they fail to outperform FSD, they were actually crushed in reverse,” Lee wrote in his post.

FSD could very well become Tesla’s moat since even cars that are equipped with the same hardware would not be able to perform similarly unless they have access to the company’s training data and software. Tesla’s fleet is ever-growing as well, which means that FSD will only get better over the years.

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Unsupervised on the Horizon

Tesla is already using FSD Unsupervised for its vehicles that are produced in the Fremont Factory and Gigafactory Texas. As per Elon Musk during the Q1 2025 earnings call, he expects Tesla to be able to roll out FSD Unsupervised to consumers before the end of this year. He also highlighted that Tesla is being extremely careful with FSD Unsupervised’s rollout.

“Before the end of this year. Not necessarily — I say within the U.S., like we do want to test — at Tesla, we’re absolutely hardcore about safety. We go to great lengths to make the safest car in the world and have the lowest accidents per mile in. 

“So we want to be very careful. We want autonomy to be definitively safer than manual driving. So it’s not enough that it just be as safe. It needs to be meaningfully safer than if the car’s manually driven,” Musk stated.

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