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SpaceX just won its first Falcon 9 launch contract of the year

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SpaceX has won its first Falcon 9 launch contract of 2020, adding to an already substantial backlog of missions scheduled to launch over the next several years.

Commercial Egyptian satellite communications provider Nilesat reportedly awarded SpaceX the contract on January 21st and announced the news the following day. Nilesat previously revealed plans to purchase an upgraded communications satellite from European company Thales Alenia Space in December 2019 – a contract likely worth around $50-100 million.

Nilesat 301 will replace Nilesat 201 and is expected to weigh around 4.1 metric tons (9050 lb) when it launches in 2022, meaning that SpaceX should easily be able to perform the mission with a Falcon 9 rocket and still be able to recover the booster by drone ship.

Back in February 2018, SpaceX Vice President of Build and Flight Reliability Hans Koenigsmann revealed that the company’s backlog of launches was valued at more than $12 billion. Generously assuming an average cost of $80M per backlogged mission, that would translate to more than 150 separate launches — strongly implying either that she was including the company’s own Starlink missions or that SpaceX has silently won several major constellation-class launch contracts in recent years.

Based on public info, SpaceX has roughly 55 customer launches on its manifest. The company also intends to launch as many as 24 dedicated Starlink missions this year and will need at least another 40-50 on top of that to complete the first phase of the broadband internet satellite constellation (~4400 spacecraft). Meanwhile, SpaceX has won at least nine separate launch contracts – two Falcon Heavy missions and seven Falcon 9s – in the last 18 months, but has launched 22 customer payloads in the same period.

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In fewer words, SpaceX is effectively launching its existing commercial missions much faster than it’s receiving new contracts. In 2019, for example, the company launched only 11 commercial missions – 13 total including two internal 60-satellite Starlink launches. SpaceX launched 21 times in 2018, a record the company initially hoped to equal or even beat last year, but – for the first time ever – the launch company was consistently ready before its customers were.

A render of Nilesat 301. (Thales Alenia)

Thankfully, while at least slightly concerning from a more traditional launch provider perspective, the fact that SpaceX is lately launching more commercial missions than it wins contracts for is being dealt with in a way no company has before. By designing and manufacturing its own Starlink satellite constellation, ultimately meant to include tens of thousands of spacecraft in orbit, SpaceX will very soon become its own biggest launch customer.

By continuing to launch a dozen or so commercial missions annually and picking up the slack with anywhere from one to several dozen additional Starlink launches, SpaceX may find a way to more or less subsidize its own launch needs and ensure that it almost always has substantial revenue coming in. That set-up almost certainly can’t last forever, but if SpaceX can launch a few thousand Starlink satellites in the next few years, there is a good chance that the company’s income as an Internet Service Provider (ISP) services can make the constellation self-sustaining – perhaps even profitable.

In just three launches and seven months, SpaceX went from operating two low-fidelity prototypes to owning the world’s largest commercial satellite constellation. (SpaceX)

At the same time, SpaceX is also equally – if not more so – focused on lowering the operational cost of its Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy launch vehicles by heavily leaning on reusability. Once fairing recovery and reuse is more routine, SpaceX could feasibly perform orbital-class launches with a material cost of $25 million or less, giving the company the option of both cutting costs and raising its profit margins. By lowering Falcon 9 launch contract costs, it’s possible that SpaceX will actually be able to significantly expand the market for orbital launch services.

All things considered, SpaceX’s launch business is entering new and exciting territory and it’s hard to say or know what exactly is going to happen in the next several years. For now, January 22nd’s seemingly routine Nilesat 301 launch contract award is hopefully just the tip of the 2020 iceberg.

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Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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Tesla ‘Mad Max’ gets its first bit of regulatory attention

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Credit: Teslarati

Tesla “Mad Max” mode has gotten its first bit of regulatory attention, as the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) has asked for additional information on the Speed Profile.

A few weeks ago, Tesla officially launched a new Speed Profile for Full Self-Driving (Supervised) known as “Mad Max,” which overtook the “Hurry” mode for the fastest setting FSD offers.

Tesla launches ‘Mad Max’ Full Self-Driving Speed Profile, its fastest yet

It launched with Full Self-Driving v14.1.2, and it was no secret that the company was looking for a new mode that would cater to more aggressive driving styles.

The release notes showed the description of the Speed Profile as:

“Introduced new speed profile MAD MAX, which comes with higher speeds and more frequent lane changes than Hurry.”

It certainly lived up to its description. In our testing, it was aggressive, fast, and drove similarly to some of the more challenging traffic patterns I’ve come across.

In normal highway driving, it was one of the quicker cars on the road, while other applications saw it be a suitable version for navigating things like rush-hour traffic.

Here’s what my experience with it was:

While Tesla owners have certainly enjoyed the feature and the behaviors of Mad Max, the NHTSA said it is in contact with Tesla about it, looking to gather additional information. Additionally, it said:

“The human behind the wheel is fully responsible for driving the vehicle and complying with all traffic safety laws.”

The important thing to note with Mad Max mode, along with the other Speed Profiles, is that the driver can choose whichever one they’d like, and they all cater to different driving styles.

While Mad Max is more aggressive, modes like “Sloth” and “Standard” are significantly more conservative and can be more suitable for those who are not comfortable with the faster, more spirited versions.

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Tesla shares AI5 chip’s ambitious production roadmap details

Tesla CEO Elon Musk has revealed new details about the company’s next-generation AI5 chip, describing it as “an amazing design.”

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Image used with permission for Teslarati. (Credit: Tom Cross)

Tesla CEO Elon Musk has revealed new details about the company’s next-generation AI5 chip, describing it as “an amazing design” that could outperform its predecessor by a notable margin. Speaking during Tesla’s Q3 2025 earnings call, Musk outlined how the chip will be manufactured in partnership with both Samsung and TSMC, with production based entirely in the United States.

What makes AI5 special

According to Musk, the AI5 represents a complete evolution of Tesla’s in-house AI hardware, building on lessons learned from the AI4 system currently used in its vehicles and data centers. “By some metrics, the AI5 chip will be 40x better than the AI4 chip, not 40%, 40x,” Musk said during the Q3 2025 earnings call. He credited Tesla’s unique vertical integration for the breakthrough, noting that the company designs both the software and hardware stack for its self-driving systems.

To streamline the new chip, Tesla eliminated several traditional components, including the legacy GPU and image signal processor, since the AI5 architecture already incorporates those capabilities. Musk explained that these deletions allow the chip to fit within a half-reticle design, improving efficiency and power management. 

“This is a beautiful chip,” Musk said. “I’ve poured so much life energy into this chip personally, and I’m confident this is going to be a winner.”

Tesla’s dual manufacturing strategy for AI5

Musk confirmed that both Samsung’s Texas facility and TSMC’s Arizona plant will fabricate AI5 chips, with each partner contributing to early production. “It makes sense to have both Samsung and TSMC focus on AI5,” the CEO said, adding that while Samsung has slightly more advanced equipment, both fabs will support Tesla’s U.S.-based production goals.

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Tesla’s explicit objective, according to Musk, is to create an oversupply of AI5 chips. The surplus units could be used in Tesla’s vehicles, humanoid robots, or data centers, which already use a mix of AI4 and NVIDIA hardware for training. “We’re not about to replace NVIDIA,” Musk clarified. “But if we have too many AI5 chips, we can always put them in the data center.”

Musk emphasized that Tesla’s focus on designing for a single customer gives it a massive advantage in simplicity and optimization. “NVIDIA… (has to) satisfy a large range of requirements from many customers. Tesla only has to satisfy one customer, Tesla,” he said. This, Musk stressed, allows Tesla to delete unnecessary complexity and deliver what could be the best performance per watt and per dollar in the industry once AI5 production scales.

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Tesla VP hints at Solar Roof comeback with Giga New York push

The comments hint at possible renewed life for the Solar Roof program, which has seen years of slow growth since its 2016 unveiling.

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Image Credit: Tesla/Twitter

Tesla’s long-awaited and way underrated Solar Roof may finally be getting its moment. During the company’s Q3 2025 earnings call, Vice President of Energy Engineering Michael Snyder revealed that production of a new residential solar panel has started at Tesla’s Buffalo, New York facility, with shipments to customers beginning in the first quarter of 2026. 

The comments hint at possible renewed life for the Solar Roof program, which has seen years of slow growth since its 2016 unveiling.

Tesla Energy’s strong demand

Responding to an investor question about Tesla’s energy backlog, Snyder said demand for Megapack and Powerwall continues to be “really strong” into next year. He also noted positive customer feedback for the company’s new Megablock product, which is expected to start shipping from Houston in 2026.

“We’re seeing remarkable growth in the demand for AI and data center applications as hyperscalers and utilities have seen the versatility of the Megapack product. It increases reliability and relieves grid constraints,” he said.

Snyder also highlighted a “surge in residential solar demand in the US,” attributing the spike to recent policy changes that incentivize home installations. Tesla expects this trend to continue into 2026, helped by the rollout of a new solar lease product that makes adoption more affordable for homeowners.

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Possible Solar Roof revival?

Perhaps the most intriguing part of Snyder’s remarks, however, was Tesla’s move to begin production of its “residential solar panel” in Buffalo, New York. He described the new panels as having “industry-leading aesthetics” and shape performance, language Tesla has used to market its Solar Roof tiles in the past.

“We also began production of our Tesla residential solar panel in our Buffalo factory, and we will be shipping that to customers starting Q1. The panel has industry-leading aesthetics and shape performance and demonstrates our continued commitment to US manufacturing,” Snyder said during the Q3 2025 earnings call.

Snyder did not explicitly name the product, though his reference to aesthetics has fueled speculation that Tesla may finally be preparing a large-scale and serious rollout of its Solar Roof line.

Originally unveiled in 2016, the Solar Roof was intended to transform rooftops into clean energy generators without compromising on design. However, despite early enthusiasm, production and installation volumes have remained limited for years. In 2023, a report from Wood Mackenzie claimed that there were only 3,000 operational Solar Roof installations across the United States at the time, far below forecasts. In response, the official Tesla Energy account on X stated that the report was “incorrect by a large margin.”

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