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Elon Musk explains the delay for Tesla’s autonomous coast-to-coast trip
Elon Musk has finally explained why the company ultimately delayed its 2017 plan for a coast-to-coast autonomous drive, and why he stands firm on Tesla’s three-pronged Autopilot approach for full self-driving over LiDAR technology.
During the Q&A portion of Tesla’s Q4 earnings call, Romit Jitendra Shah of Nomura Instinet asked Musk for any updates on the company’s plans for a fully autonomous coast-to-coast drive. Responding to the inquiry, the Musk explained that Tesla is focused on developing a full self-driving suite that would work on all roads under any conditions — something that would have been compromised had Tesla forced the feat last year.
“We could have done the coast-to-coast drive, but it would have required too much specialized code to effectively game it or make it somewhat brittle and that it would work for one particular route, but not the general solution. So I think we would be able to repeat it, but if it’s just not any other route, which is not really a true solution,” Musk said.
When asked about the timeline for the coast-to-coast autonomous drive, the Tesla CEO stated that it might happen in three months, or “six months at the outside.” Musk further stated that the feature would be available for Model S, X, and 3 customers who purchased the Full Self-Driving (FSD) upgrade for their vehicles. The CEO did not confirm, however, if the feature would be rolled out to customers immediately after the coast-to-coast drive is accomplished, or if customers would have to wait before being able to access the feature.
Perhaps the most interesting part of Musk’s statements about FSD, however, came from David Tamberrino of Goldman Sachs. During the Q&A session, Tamberrino asked Musk about his comments on LiDAR technology, a particularly prominent feature of Tesla’s rivals in the self-driving field. Responding to the inquiry, Musk was firm in his stance that LiDAR is not needed for Tesla’s vehicles to achieve fully autonomous driving, even going so far as to state that rivals being dependent on the technology might be making a grave mistake.
“In my view, it is a crutch that will drive companies to a local maximum that they will find very difficult to get out of. They’re going to have a whole bunch of expensive equipment, most of which makes the car expensive, ugly and unnecessary. And I think they will find themselves at a competitive disadvantage,”
Musk further explained that utilizing sophisticated radar equipment is a far better option for FSD. Tesla is steadfast in using its three-pronged approach featuring redundant forward cameras, forward radar, and near-field ultrasonics will be key to the eventual mastery of autonomous driving.
Musk reaffirmed his stance on using this technology, as it allows vehicles to “see” through snow, rain, dust, and fog — conditions that even experienced drivers find difficult to drive on. Overall, Musk stated that he is optimistic about the development of Tesla’s autonomous driving suite. While Tesla’s CEO admitted that progress has been slow, he asserted that when the company achieves FSD, it would be something truly remarkable.
“It’s also one of those things that’s kind of exponential where it doesn’t seem like much progress, and suddenly, ‘wow.’ It will seem like well this is a lame driver. (Then,) like okay, that’s a pretty good driver. (Then,) like holy cow, this driver’s good,” Musk said.
It’s worth noting that Musk also stated that his beliefs in FSD, LiDAR, and radar technology might be proven wrong in the future. Musk did assert, however, that he is confident in his belief that Tesla’s non-LiDAR approach is the correct way to go.
Now perhaps I am wrong. In which case, I’ll look like a fool. But I am quite certain that I am not,” Musk said.
In a lot of ways, Musk’s statements about LiDAR and the delayed autonomous coast-to-coast drive makes perfect sense. As we noted in a previous report, Tesla’s focus on FSD technology is quite different than its competitors, in the way that the company is attempting to create a system that works under any conditions in any location. The leaders in the field, such as Waymo and GM, on the other hand, are pursuing something different, creating a system that works perfectly in a pre-programmed, set route.
Elon Musk
SpaceX issues statement on Starship V3 Booster 18 anomaly
The incident unfolded during gas-system pressure testing at the company’s Massey facility in Starbase, Texas.
SpaceX has issued an initial statement about Starship Booster 18’s anomaly early Friday. The incident unfolded during gas-system pressure testing at the company’s Massey facility in Starbase, Texas.
SpaceX’s initial comment
As per SpaceX in a post on its official account on social media platform X, Booster 18 was undergoing gas system pressure tests when the anomaly happened. Despite the nature of the incident, the company emphasized that no propellant was loaded, no engines were installed, and personnel were kept at a safe distance from the booster, resulting in zero injuries.
“Booster 18 suffered an anomaly during gas system pressure testing that we were conducting in advance of structural proof testing. No propellant was on the vehicle, and engines were not yet installed. The teams need time to investigate before we are confident of the cause. No one was injured as we maintain a safe distance for personnel during this type of testing. The site remains clear and we are working plans to safely reenter the site,” SpaceX wrote in its post on X.
Incident and aftermath
Livestream footage from LabPadre showed Booster 18’s lower half crumpling around the liquid oxygen tank area at approximately 4:04 a.m. CT. Subsequent images posted by on-site observers revealed extensive deformation across the booster’s lower structure. Needless to say, spaceflight observers have noted that Booster 18 would likely be a complete loss due to its anomaly.
Booster 18 had rolled out only a day earlier and was one of the first vehicles in the Starship V3 program. The V3 series incorporates structural reinforcements and reliability upgrades intended to prepare Starship for rapid-reuse testing and eventual tower-catch operations. Elon Musk has been optimistic about Starship V3, previously noting on X that the spacecraft might be able to complete initial missions to Mars.
Investor's Corner
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) received fresh support from Piper Sandler this week after analysts toured the Fremont Factory and tested the company’s latest Full Self-Driving software. The firm reaffirmed its $500 price target, stating that FSD V14 delivered a notably smooth robotaxi demonstration and may already perform at levels comparable to, if not better than, average human drivers.
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Analysts highlight autonomy progress
During more than 75 minutes of focused discussions, analysts reportedly focused on FSD v14’s updates. Piper Sandler’s team pointed to meaningful strides in perception, object handling, and overall ride smoothness during the robotaxi demo.
The visit also included discussions on updates to Tesla’s in-house chip initiatives, its Optimus program, and the growth of the company’s battery storage business. Analysts noted that Tesla continues refining cost structures and capital expenditure expectations, which are key elements in future margin recovery, as noted in a Yahoo Finance report.
Analyst Alexander Potter noted that “we think FSD is a truly impressive product that is (probably) already better at driving than the average American.” This conclusion was strengthened by what he described as a “flawless robotaxi ride to the hotel.”
Street targets diverge on TSLA
While Piper Sandler stands by its $500 target, it is not the highest estimate on the Street. Wedbush, for one, has a $600 per share price target for TSLA stock.
Other institutions have also weighed in on TSLA stock as of late. HSBC reiterated a Reduce rating with a $131 target, citing a gap between earnings fundamentals and the company’s market value. By contrast, TD Cowen maintained a Buy rating and a $509 target, pointing to strong autonomous driving demonstrations in Austin and the pace of software-driven improvements.
Stifel analysts also lifted their price target for Tesla to $508 per share over the company’s ongoing robotaxi and FSD programs.
Elon Musk
SpaceX Starship Version 3 booster crumples in early testing
Photos of the incident’s aftermath suggest that Booster 18 will likely be retired.
SpaceX’s new Starship first-stage booster, Booster 18, suffered major damage early Friday during its first round of testing in Starbase, Texas, just one day after rolling out of the factory.
Based on videos of the incident, the lower section of the rocket booster appeared to crumple during a pressurization test. Photos of the incident’s aftermath suggest that Booster 18 will likely be retired.
Booster test failure
SpaceX began structural and propellant-system verification tests on Booster 18 Thursday night at the Massey’s Test Site, only a few miles from Starbase’s production facilities, as noted in an Ars Technica report. At 4:04 a.m. CT on Friday, a livestream from LabPadre Space captured the booster’s lower half experiencing a sudden destructive event around its liquid oxygen tank section. Post-incident images, shared on X by @StarshipGazer, showed notable deformation in the booster’s lower structure.
Neither SpaceX nor Elon Musk had commented as of Friday morning, but the vehicle’s condition suggests it is likely a complete loss. This is quite unfortunate, as Booster 18 is already part of the Starship V3 program, which includes design fixes and upgrades intended to improve reliability. While SpaceX maintains a rather rapid Starship production line in Starbase, Booster 18 was generally expected to validate the improvements implemented in the V3 program.
Tight deadlines
SpaceX needs Starship boosters and upper stages to begin demonstrating rapid reuse, tower catches, and early operational Starlink missions over the next two years. More critically, NASA’s Artemis program depends on an on-orbit refueling test in the second half of 2026, a requirement for the vehicle’s expected crewed lunar landing around 2028.
While SpaceX is known for diagnosing failures quickly and returning to testing at unmatched speed, losing the newest-generation booster at the very start of its campaign highlights the immense challenge involved in scaling Starship into a reliable, high-cadence launch system. SpaceX, however, is known for getting things done quickly, so it would not be a surprise if the company manages to figure out what happened to Booster 18 in the near future.
SpaceX issues statement on Starship V3 Booster 18 anomaly
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
