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Tesla would be the big winner in potential UAW strike

Credit: Tesla

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Tesla could be set to benefit from potential strikes against the auto industry’s “Big 3” in the coming weeks, if negotiations are not completed by an upcoming contract deadline.

Employees represented by the United Auto Workers (UAW) union are approved to strike if demands are not met by the current contract’s September 14 deadline, potentially costing a fortune for Ford, General Motors (GM), and Stellantis. Upcoming strikes could be slated to significantly benefit Tesla, especially as traditional automakers work to catch up to the company’s dominance in the electric vehicle (EV) market.

The UAW has requested that the big three grant workers a 46-percent pay raise, restore traditional pensions, and shift to a four-day work week while keeping to a five-day wage level. As Axios reporter Nathan Bomey pointed out in a recent video segment with Yahoo News, “Tesla would be the big winner if there’s a big strike.”

In response, the big three have noted increasing competition from Tesla and automakers outside the U.S., arguing that the union’s demands are not realistic. The UAW approved strikes against Ford, GM, and Stellantis late last month, amidst concerns that a transition to EV manufacturing could risk a significant loss of jobs at the companies.

Alternatively, Bomey explains that Tesla could also stand to win out if the automakers agree to the pay increases since a union does not represent the company. He also questions whether the UAW could attempt to organize Tesla workers again following negotiations with the big three. Last year, Tesla CEO Elon Musk invited the UAW to hold votes to unionize its Fremont, California factory, saying that he wouldn’t stop them.

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In the past, most UAW negotiations have targeted a single company at a time, only striking if the parties cannot reach a deal. If a deal wasn’t reached, the union would then approach the other two automakers to attempt to negotiate. This time, however, significant speculation remains that workers could hold a strike against all three automakers at the same time.

AP News reports that a single 40-day UAW strike in 2019 cost GM $3.6 billion. Strikes could also drive vehicle prices upward, at a time when Tesla has put pressure on other automakers through several price cuts made this year.

What are your thoughts? Let me know at zach@teslarati.com, find me on X at @zacharyvisconti, or send your tips to us at tips@teslarati.com.

Zach is a renewable energy reporter who has been covering electric vehicles since 2020. He grew up in Fremont, California, and he currently lives in Colorado. His work has appeared in the Chicago Tribune, KRON4 San Francisco, FOX31 Denver, InsideEVs, CleanTechnica, and many other publications. When he isn't covering Tesla or other EV companies, you can find him writing and performing music, drinking a good cup of coffee, or hanging out with his cats, Banks and Freddie. Reach out at zach@teslarati.com, find him on X at @zacharyvisconti, or send us tips at tips@teslarati.com.

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Tesla takes a step towards removal of Robotaxi service’s safety drivers

Tesla watchers are speculating that the implementation of in-camera data sharing could be a step towards the removal of the Robotaxi service’s safety drivers.

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla appears to be preparing for the eventual removal of its Robotaxi service’s safety drivers. 

This was hinted at in a recent de-compile of the Robotaxi App’s version 25.11.5, which was shared on social media platform X. 

In-cabin analytics

As per Tesla software tracker @Tesla_App_iOS, the latest update to the Robotaxi app featured several improvements. These include Live Screen Sharing, as well as a feature that would allow Tesla to access video and audio inside the vehicle. 

According to the software tracker, a new prompt has been added to the Robotaxi App that requests user consent for enhanced in-cabin data sharing, which comprise Cabin Camera Analytics and Sound Detection Analytics. Once accepted, Tesla would be able to retrieve video and audio data from the Robotaxi’s cabin. 

Video and audio sharing

A screenshot posted by the software tracker on X showed that Cabin Camera Analytics is used to improve the intelligence of features like request support. Tesla has not explained exactly how the feature will be implemented, though this might mean that the in-cabin camera may be used to view and analyze the status of passengers when remote agents are contacted.

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Sound Detection Analytics is expected to be used to improve the intelligence of features like siren recognition. This suggests that Robotaxis will always be actively listening for emergency vehicle sirens to improve how the system responds to them. Tesla, however, also maintained that data collected by Robotaxis will be anonymous. In-cabin data will not be linked to users unless they are needed for a safety event or a support request. 

Tesla watchers are speculating that the implementation of in-camera data sharing could be a step towards the removal of the Robotaxi service’s safety drivers. With Tesla able to access video and audio feeds from Robotaxis, after all, users can get assistance even if they are alone in the driverless vehicle. 

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Investor's Corner

Mizuho keeps Tesla (TSLA) “Outperform” rating but lowers price target

As per the Mizuho analyst, upcoming changes to EV incentives in the U.S. and China could affect Tesla’s unit growth more than previously expected.

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Credit: Tesla China

Mizuho analyst Vijay Rakesh lowered Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) price target to $475 from $485, citing potential 2026 EV subsidy cuts in the U.S. and China that could pressure deliveries. The firm maintained its Outperform rating for the electric vehicle maker, however. 

As per the Mizuho analyst, upcoming changes to EV incentives in the U.S. and China could affect Tesla’s unit growth more than previously expected. The U.S. accounted for roughly 37% of Tesla’s third-quarter 2025 sales, while China represented about 34%, making both markets highly sensitive to policy shifts. Potential 50% cuts to Chinese subsidies and reduced U.S. incentives affected the firm’s outlook.

With those pressures factored in, the firm now expects Tesla to deliver 1.75 million vehicles in 2026 and 2 million in 2027, slightly below consensus estimates of 1.82 million and 2.15 million, respectively. The analyst was cautiously optimistic, as near-term pressure from subsidies is there, but the company’s long-term tech roadmap remains very compelling. 

Despite the revised target, Mizuho remained optimistic on Tesla’s long-term technology roadmap. The firm highlighted three major growth drivers into 2027: the broader adoption of Full Self-Driving V14, the expansion of Tesla’s Robotaxi service, and the commercialization of Optimus, the company’s humanoid robot. 

“We are lowering TSLA Ests/PT to $475 with Potential BEV headwinds in 2026E. We believe into 2026E, US (~37% of TSLA 3Q25 sales) EV subsidy cuts and China (34% of TSLA 3Q25 sales) potential 50% EV subsidy cuts could be a headwind to EV deliveries. 

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“We are now estimating TSLA deliveries for 2026/27E at 1.75M/2.00M (slightly below cons. 1.82M/2.15M). We see some LT drivers with FSD v14 adoption for autonomous, robotaxi launches, and humanoid robots into 2027 driving strength,” the analyst noted. 

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Tesla’s Elon Musk posts updated Robotaxi fleet ramp for Austin, TX

Musk posted his update on social media platform X.

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Credit: @AdanGuajardo/X

Elon Musk says Tesla will “roughly double” its supervised Robotaxi fleet in Austin next month as riders report long wait times and limited availability across the pilot program in the Texas city. Musk posted his update on social media platform X.

The move comes as Waymo accelerates its U.S. expansion with its fully driverless freeway service, intensifying competition in autonomous mobility.

Tesla to increase Austin Robotaxi fleet size

Tesla’s Robotaxi service in Austin continues to operate under supervised conditions, requiring a safety monitor in the front seat even as the company seeks regulatory approval to begin testing without human oversight. The current fleet is estimated at about 30 vehicles, StockTwists noted, and Musk’s commitment to doubling that figure follows widespread rider complaints about limited access and “High Service Demand” notifications.

Influencers and early users of the Robotaxi service have observed repeated failures to secure a ride during peak times, highlighting a supply bottleneck in one of Tesla’s most visible autonomy pilots. The expansion aims to provide more consistent availability as the company scales and gathers more real-world driving data, an advantage analysts often cite as a differentiator versus rivals. 

Broader rollout plans

Tesla’s Robotaxi service has so far only been rolled out to Austin and the Bay Area, though reports have indicated that the electric vehicle maker is putting in a lot of effort to expand the service to other cities across the United States. Waymo, the Robotaxi service’s biggest competitor, has ramped its service to areas like the San Francisco Bay Area, Los Angeles, and Phoenix. 

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Analysts continue to highlight Tesla’s long-term autonomy potential due to its global fleet size, vertically integrated design, and immense real-world data. ARK Invest has maintained that Tesla Robotaxis could represent up to 90% of the company’s enterprise value by 2029. BTIG analysts, on the other hand, added that upcoming Full Self-Driving upgrades will enhance reasoning, particularly parking decisions, while Tesla pushes toward expansions in Austin, the Bay Area, and potentially 8 to 10 metro regions by the end of 2025.

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