There were a number of notable events that transpired in the electric vehicle sector in the past few days. Tesla rolled out a minor $1,000 limited-time discount for the Model Y crossover until the end of February. And this Sunday, BMW, Volkswagen, and KIA aired their respective advertisements for the BMW i5, VW ID.Buzz, and the KIA EV9 at Super Bowl LVIII.
The Super Bowl is the United States’ biggest sporting event, reaching nearly 100 million people every year since Super Bowl 44 in 2010, as per ratings agency Nielsen. It is then no surprise that ad spots for the premier sporting event are sold at a premium, with Automotive News noting that a 30-second advertisement for this year’s Super Bowl costs about $7 million on average.
Now, $7 million is definitely not a small amount, but it does help a company reach 100 million people. That’s invaluable, and likely well worth it for automakers looking to highlight their electric vehicle offerings. This was evident in BMW’s star-studded ad with actor Christopher Walken, Volkswagen’s nostalgic advertisement for the ID.Buzz, and KIA’s heartwarming commercial for the EV9. And as per Wall Street veteran and Tesla bull Gary Black, Tesla could have easily benefitted from a Super Bowl ad this year.
At $7M for a 30 second Super Bowl ad, $TSLA would have to sell 875 incremental cars (@$8k gross profit per car) to justify the cost of the ad. And the follow up interest from TSLA paying for a Super Bowl ad would be huge. Instead $TSLA cuts price by $1,000 per Model Y in the US… https://t.co/ZrqxUpRCcB— Gary Black (@garyblack00) February 12, 2024
As explained by Black in a post on X, the social media platform formerly known as Twitter, a $7 million Super Bowl ad for Tesla would result in massive follow-up interest in the electric vehicle maker. Black also highlighted that at $7 million, Tesla would only have to sell 875 incremental cars at $8,000 gross profit per unit to justify the cost of a 30-second Super Bowl advertisement.
In comparison, Tesla’s $1,000 discount for the Model Y, which is generally unknown to conventional car buyers outside X and the EV community, will cost Tesla about $40 million, Black estimated. What’s worse is that avid Tesla critic Dan O’Dowd, who is on a crusade to ban Full Self-Driving on public roads, is paying for two Super Bowl ads. Thus, not only will Super Bowl viewers not see an ad supporting Tesla during the premier sporting event. They will instead see two ads encouraging them to boycott the company’s products.
Do you think @Tesla spending $7 million on a 30 second Super Bowl ad would be a good investment for the company?
Explain your reasoning below.— Sawyer Merritt (@SawyerMerritt) February 11, 2024
What is interesting is that Tesla has a ton of advertisements that could have worked for the Super Bowl as well. Tesla’s Cybertruck commercials alone would be very interesting, such as the company’s 60-second “all-features” ad or the vehicle’s dedicated Basecamp advertisement. One could even argue that some fan-made Tesla commercials that have been created by enthusiasts over the years are good enough for such an event.
It was thus unsurprising that numerous EV fans and TSLA investors supported Black’s suggestion. After all, a good number of car buyers are still very unfamiliar with Tesla’s vehicles, such as the fact that they start below $40,000, that they are the safest cars on the road, or that they are the most American-made, among others. This was quite evident in a poll that was posted on X which asked users if Tesla would benefit from a Super Bowl ad. While those who support and those who do not support the idea are pretty much equal, one cannot deny the fact that the voices calling for Tesla to advertise are getting notably louder.
Check out BMW, Volkswagen, and KIA’s EV ads for Super Bowl LVIII below.
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Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) closed at an all-time high on Tuesday, jumping over 3 percent during the day and finishing at $489.88.
The price beats the previous record close, which was $479.86.
Shares have had a crazy year, dipping more than 40 percent from the start of the year. The stock then started to recover once again around late April, when its price started to climb back up from the low $200 level.
This week, Tesla started to climb toward its highest levels ever, as it was revealed on Sunday that the company was testing driverless Robotaxis in Austin. The spike in value pushed the company’s valuation to $1.63 trillion.
Tesla Robotaxi goes driverless as Musk confirms Safety Monitor removal testing
It is the seventh-most valuable company on the market currently, trailing Nvidia, Apple, Alphabet (Google), Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta.
Shares closed up $14.57 today, up over 3 percent.
The stock has gone through a lot this year, as previously mentioned. Shares tumbled in Q1 due to CEO Elon Musk’s involvement with the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), which pulled his attention away from his companies and left a major overhang on their valuations.
However, things started to rebound halfway through the year, and as the government started to phase out the $7,500 tax credit, demand spiked as consumers tried to take advantage of it.
Q3 deliveries were the highest in company history, and Tesla responded to the loss of the tax credit with the launch of the Model 3 and Model Y Standard.
Additionally, analysts have announced high expectations this week for the company on Wall Street as Robotaxi continues to be the focus. With autonomy within Tesla’s sights, things are moving in the direction of Robotaxi being a major catalyst for growth on the Street in the coming year.
Elon Musk
Tesla needs to come through on this one Robotaxi metric, analyst says
“We think the key focus from here will be how fast Tesla can scale driverless operations (including if Tesla’s approach to software/hardware allows it to scale significantly faster than competitors, as the company has argued), and on profitability.”
Tesla needs to come through on this one Robotaxi metric, Mark Delaney of Goldman Sachs says.
Tesla is in the process of rolling out its Robotaxi platform to areas outside of Austin and the California Bay Area. It has plans to launch in five additional cities, including Houston, Dallas, Miami, Las Vegas, and Phoenix.
However, the company’s expansion is not what the focus needs to be, according to Delaney. It’s the speed of deployment.
The analyst said:
“We think the key focus from here will be how fast Tesla can scale driverless operations (including if Tesla’s approach to software/hardware allows it to scale significantly faster than competitors, as the company has argued), and on profitability.”
Profitability will come as the Robotaxi fleet expands. Making that money will be dependent on when Tesla can initiate rides in more areas, giving more customers access to the program.
There are some additional things that the company needs to make happen ahead of the major Robotaxi expansion, one of those things is launching driverless rides in Austin, the first city in which it launched the program.
This week, Tesla started testing driverless Robotaxi rides in Austin, as two different Model Y units were spotted with no occupants, a huge step in the company’s plans for the ride-sharing platform.
Tesla Robotaxi goes driverless as Musk confirms Safety Monitor removal testing
CEO Elon Musk has been hoping to remove Safety Monitors from Robotaxis in Austin for several months, first mentioning the plan to have them out by the end of 2025 in September. He confirmed on Sunday that Tesla had officially removed vehicle occupants and started testing truly unsupervised rides.
Although Safety Monitors in Austin have been sitting in the passenger’s seat, they have still had the ability to override things in case of an emergency. After all, the ultimate goal was safety and avoiding any accidents or injuries.
Goldman Sachs reiterated its ‘Neutral’ rating and its $400 price target. Delaney said, “Tesla is making progress with its autonomous technology,” and recent developments make it evident that this is true.
Investor's Corner
Tesla gets bold Robotaxi prediction from Wall Street firm
Last week, Andrew Percoco took over Tesla analysis for Morgan Stanley from Adam Jonas, who covered the stock for years. Percoco seems to be less optimistic and bullish on Tesla shares, while still being fair and balanced in his analysis.
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) received a bold Robotaxi prediction from Morgan Stanley, which anticipates a dramatic increase in the size of the company’s autonomous ride-hailing suite in the coming years.
Last week, Andrew Percoco took over Tesla analysis for Morgan Stanley from Adam Jonas, who covered the stock for years. Percoco seems to be less optimistic and bullish on Tesla shares, while still being fair and balanced in his analysis.
Percoco dug into the Robotaxi fleet and its expansion in the coming years in his latest note, released on Tuesday. The firm expects Tesla to increase the Robotaxi fleet size to 1,000 vehicles in 2026. However, that’s small-scale compared to what they expect from Tesla in a decade.
Tesla expands Robotaxi app access once again, this time on a global scale
By 2035, Morgan Stanley believes there will be one million Robotaxis on the road across multiple cities, a major jump and a considerable fleet size. We assume this means the fleet of vehicles Tesla will operate internally, and not including passenger-owned vehicles that could be added through software updates.
He also listed three specific catalysts that investors should pay attention to, as these will represent the company being on track to achieve its Robotaxi dreams:
- Opening Robotaxi to the public without a Safety Monitor. Timing is unclear, but it appears that Tesla is getting closer by the day.
- Improvement in safety metrics without the Safety Monitor. Tesla’s ability to improve its safety metrics as it scales miles driven without the Safety Monitor is imperative as it looks to scale in new states and cities in 2026.
- Cybercab start of production, targeted for April 2026. Tesla’s Cybercab is a purpose-built vehicle (no steering wheel or pedals, only two seats) that is expected to be produced through its state-of-the-art unboxed manufacturing process, offering further cost reductions and thus accelerating adoption over time.
Robotaxi stands to be one of Tesla’s most significant revenue contributors, especially as the company plans to continue expanding its ride-hailing service across the world in the coming years.
Its current deployment strategy is controlled and conservative to avoid any drastic and potentially program-ruining incidents.
So far, the program, which is active in Austin and the California Bay Area, has been widely successful.
Tesla stock closes at all-time high on heels of Robotaxi progress
Tesla needs to come through on this one Robotaxi metric, analyst says
