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Tesla gets boost from China’s regulations as Europe sees influx of Model 3 registrations
Tesla’s push into the international market with its Model 3 electric sedan could see a notable boost, thanks in part to some unexpected support from Chinese regulations and what appears to be widespread support for EVs in the European region. With the Model 3 about to saturate the right-hand-drive markets, it appears that Tesla’s ramp of the vehicle is entering its later stages.
A recent update from Beijing stands to benefit the countries’ largest local electric car companies and Tesla, which is currently building a wholly-owned factory in Shanghai. In an announcement on Friday, China’s Ministry of Finance announced that it would be extending a sales tax break for battery-powered and hybrid vehicles. A change was expected to go into effect on Monday, but with the update in place, battery-powered and hybrid vehicles will still be exempt from a 10% sales tax until the end of 2020.
With the extension of the tax break, analysts from China have noted that strong brands in the EV sector, such as Tesla and local companies like Geely Automobile Holdings, SAIC Motor, NIO, and Xpeng Motors, would likely see benefits from the government’s adjustment. Tax break or not, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers expect New Energy Vehicle (NEV) sales in the country to increase by 27%, which would translate to around 1.6 million units over the course of 2019. If these forecasts prove accurate, China will set another sales record for its NEV initiative this year.
If Tesla starts producing the Model 3 at Gigafactory 3 later this year, the company could tap into the country’s growing NEV market. Tesla, after all, is considered a premium brand in the country, holding a reputation that is not too far from Apple. Tesla’s vehicles like the Model X have been considered as status symbols in the past, and this could ultimately benefit the Model 3, which offers a more affordable entry point into the Tesla ecosystem.
Apart from a potential boost thanks to China’s regulations, Tesla’s push into the European market also appears to be bearing fruit. Tesla conducted a massive end-of-quarter push in Europe last month, as part of its attempt to meet or even break its record in Q4 2018, when it delivered over 90,000 vehicles in one quarter. Data from Europe’s car sales in June 2019 show that Tesla’s delivery push might have paid off.
June’s sales from the European region are currently trickling in, and based on data from countries such as Norway and the Netherlands, where registrations surpassed 2,500 for the first time, Tesla appears to be increasing its reach. Denmark also saw 426 Tesla registrations, which is more than four times the total for all of 2018. In line with the company’s end-of-quarter push, almost a third of Denmark’s Tesla registrations were submitted in the last week of June. This influx of registrations is likely due to the Model 3, which is currently being shipped to the region.
Bloomberg Intelligence global autos analyst Kevin Tynan believes that Europe’s momentum could help the company, particularly as the company’s expansion in the US “stalls.” The analyst also expects Tesla to meet competition in Europe and China, as the company will have to challenge established local competitors. “Tesla’s global push will deliver expansion as the US stalls, but at great expense to margin. And dominance of the battery-electric vehicle market may not come as easily in China and Europe, as the company faces established hometown — and government — favorites there,” Tynan wrote.
Tesla’s Model 3 ramp has been the focus of the company for over a year. As Tesla starts its push into the RHD territories this quarter, and as the company prepares to manufacture the Model 3 in China, the later stages of Elon Musk’s play into the mass market could finally be at hand. Once the Model 3 ramp reaches its full fruition, Tesla could start its next, more ambitious push into the mainstream: the Model Y, which will compete in the competitive and lucrative crossover SUV market.
Tesla analyst Andrew Percoco of Morgan Stanley teased the company’s dominance in its self-driving initiative, stating that its lead over competitors is “not even close.”
Percoco recently overtook coverage of Tesla stock from Adam Jonas, who had covered the company at Morgan Stanley for years. Percoco is handling Tesla now that Jonas is covering embodied AI stocks and no longer automotive.
His first move after grabbing coverage was to adjust the price target from $410 to $425, as well as the rating from ‘Overweight’ to ‘Equal Weight.’
Percoco’s new note regarding Tesla highlights the company’s extensive lead in self-driving and autonomy projects, something that it has plenty of competition in, but has established its prowess over the past few years.
He writes:
“It’s not even close. Tesla continues to lead in autonomous driving, even as Nvidia rolls out new technology aimed at helping other automakers build driverless systems.”
Percoco’s main point regarding Tesla’s advantage is the company’s ability to collect large amounts of training data through its massive fleet, as millions of cars are driving throughout the world and gathering millions of miles of vehicle behavior on the road.
This is the main point that Percoco makes regarding Tesla’s lead in the entire autonomy sector: data is King, and Tesla has the most of it.
One big story that has hit the news over the past week is that of NVIDIA and its own self-driving suite, called Alpamayo. NVIDIA launched this open-source AI program last week, but it differs from Tesla’s in a significant fashion, especially from a hardware perspective, as it plans to use a combination of LiDAR, Radar, and Vision (Cameras) to operate.
Percoco said that NVIDIA’s announcement does not impact Morgan Stanley’s long-term opinions on Tesla and its strength or prowess in self-driving.
NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang commends Tesla’s Elon Musk for early belief
And, for what it’s worth, NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang even said some remarkable things about Tesla following the launch of Alpamayo:
“I think the Tesla stack is the most advanced autonomous vehicle stack in the world. I’m fairly certain they were already using end-to-end AI. Whether their AI did reasoning or not is somewhat secondary to that first part.”
Percoco reiterated both the $425 price target and the ‘Equal Weight’ rating on Tesla shares.
Elon Musk
Donald Trump turns to Elon Musk and Starlink amid Iran internet blackout
Donald Trump has stated that he plans to speak with SpaceX CEO Elon Musk about restoring internet access in Iran.
Donald Trump has stated that he plans to speak with SpaceX CEO Elon Musk about restoring internet access in Iran, as authorities in the country implement an internet blackout amid nationwide anti-government protests.
Trump points to Starlink
Speaking to reporters in Washington, Trump said Musk would be well-suited to help restore connectivity in Iran, citing his experience operating large-scale satellite networks, as noted in a Reuters report. “He’s very good at that kind of thing, he’s got a very good company,” Trump said.
Iran has experienced a near-total internet shutdown for several days, severely limiting the flow of information as protests escalated into broader demonstrations against the country’s rulers.
Starlink has previously been used in Iran during periods of unrest, allowing some users to access the global internet despite government blocks. Neither Musk nor SpaceX immediately commented on Trump’s remarks, but Musk has publicly supported efforts to provide Starlink access to Iranians during earlier periods of unrest.
Renewed Trump–Musk ties
Trump’s comments come amid a thaw in his previously strained relationship with Musk. The two had a public falling-out last year over domestic policy disagreements but have since appeared together publicly, including at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort. The renewed ties now intersect with foreign policy, as Starlink has become a strategic tool in regions facing censorship or conflict.
The satellite service has also played a prominent role elsewhere, most notably in Ukraine, highlighting both its potential impact and the political sensitivities surrounding its use. In Iran, Starlink support previously followed coordination between Musk and U.S. officials during protests in 2022.
The current internet blackout in Iran has drawn international attention, with rights groups estimating hundreds of deaths and thousands of arrests since demonstrations intensified late last year. Iranian authorities have not released official casualty figures, and outside verification remains limited due to restricted communications.
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Tesla China’s domestic sales fell 4.8% in 2025, but it’s not doom and gloom
Despite the full-year dip, Tesla finished the year with record domestic sales in December.
Tesla posted 625,698 retail vehicle sales in China in 2025, marking a 4.8% year-on-year decline as the EV maker navigated an increasingly competitive EV market and a major production transition for its best-selling vehicle.
Despite the full-year dip, Tesla finished the year with record domestic sales in December.
Retail sales slip amid Model Y transition
Tesla’s 2025 retail sales in China were down from 657,102 units in 2024, when the company ranked third in the country’s new energy vehicle (NEV) market with a 6.0% share. In 2025, Tesla’s share slipped to 4.9%, placing it fifth overall, as noted in a CNEV Post report.
Part of the decline seemed tied to operational disruptions early in the year. Tesla implemented a changeover to the new Tesla Model Y in the first quarter of 2025, which required temporary production pauses at Giga Shanghai. That downtime reduced vehicle availability early during the year, weighing on the company’s retail volumes in China and in areas supplied by Giga Shanghai’s exports.
China remained one of Tesla’s largest markets, accounting for 38.24% of its global deliveries of 1.64 million vehicles in 2025. However, the company also saw exports from Giga Shanghai fall to 226,034 units, down nearly 13% year-on-year. It remains to be seen how much of this could be attributed to the Model Y changeover and how much could be attributed to other factors.
Strong December 2025 finish
While the full-year picture showed some contraction, Tesla closed 2025 on a high note. According to data from the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA), Tesla China delivered a record 93,843 vehicles domestically in China in December, its highest monthly total ever. That figure was up 13.2% from a year earlier and 28.3% higher than November.
The surge was driven in part by Tesla prioritizing domestic deliveries late in the year, allowing buyers to lock in favorable purchase tax policies. In December alone, Tesla captured 7.0% of China’s NEV market and a notable 12.0% share of the country’s battery-electric segment.
On a wholesale basis, Tesla China sold 851,732 vehicles in 2025, down 7.1% year-on-year. From this number, 97,171 were from December 2025 alone. Tesla Model 3 wholesale figures reached 312,738 units, a year-over-year decrease of 13.12%. The Tesla Model Y’s wholesale figures for 2025 were 538,994 units, down 3.18% year-over-year.
Tesla analyst teases self-driving dominance in new note: ‘It’s not even close’
Donald Trump turns to Elon Musk and Starlink amid Iran internet blackout
