Investor's Corner
Tesla to cut back presence in Hong Kong if Musk’s “beacon city” fails to adopt new EV incentives , says report
Tesla has reportedly submitted a letter to Hong Kong Chief Executive Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor, stating that it would reduce its presence in the country if previous tax credits for electric car buyers are not reinstated. The removal of a full registration tax waiver on electric vehicles was implemented last year by the HK government, causing a significant drop in electric car sales in the region of China.
Without the tax credits in place, electric vehicle prices have shot up by 50 to 80 percent in Hong Kong. Tax relief was also capped at HK$97,500 (US$12,466.35). These changes have ultimately caused the prices of vehicles like the Tesla Model S to increase significantly.
Since the tax credits were pulled out, Hong Kong saw a steep decline in the number of new EV registrations. In April 2017, the first month following the removal of the tax waivers, no registrations for electric cars was filed, causing companies such as Tesla to take heavy blows in sales. Tesla for one, only sold 32 Model S and Model X from April to December 2017, a massive decline from the 2,078 Model S and Model X it sold from April to December 2016.
In a statement to the South China Morning Post, an anonymous source claiming to have knowledge of the matter stated that Tesla is attempting to push back against the HK government. According to the source, the Silicon Valley-based electric car maker and energy firm is urging Chief Executive Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor to rethink the country’s position in the EV tax waiver issue. If the government does not budge, Tesla would reportedly begin scaling back its operations.
“Scaling down Tesla’s operation in Hong Kong is a natural and logical consequence if the number of customers has dwindled prompted by a reduction of government incentives. Without government support, who is willing to invest in green technology?” the source said, according to the Post.
-->While Hong Kong has maintained that the removal of the EV tax credits was due to traffic congestion and the fact that the majority of electric car owners were members of the upper class, critics of the government have speculated that the state had simply backed down amid pressure from legacy car makers. The Asia-based publication appears to have confirmed this recently, with another anonymous source from the local car industry stating that Tesla had simply gotten too successful in Hong Kong.
“The sale of Tesla cars in one month was equal to the annual sales figure of some petrol car brands. They all complained that the rapid growth of Tesla these few years had made their lives really difficult,” the source said.
Prior to the removal of the tax credits on electric vehicles, Hong Kong was one of the leaders in the electric car revolution in Asia, thanks in no small part to Tesla’s entry into the country. In a statement back in 2016, Tesla CEO Elon Musk expressed his optimism about Hong Kong being a leader in emissions-free transportation, calling Hong Kong a “Beacon City” for electric vehicles.
Musk’s statement definitely rang true, with electric car sales in the country experiencing a surge that saw registrations reach well into the thousands every year. By the time the Hong Kong government decided to discontinue the EV tax credits last year, there were 10,589 registered private electric cars in the region, with 2,964 of the registrations being filed in March 2017, the month right before the waivers were discontinued. A significant number of the country’s electric cars were Tesla Model S and Model X.
Below is a video of Tesla CEO Elon Musk speaking at a special event in Hong Kong in 2016.
-->https://youtu.be/12FVtZh5SLs
Investor's Corner
Mizuho keeps Tesla (TSLA) “Outperform” rating but lowers price target
As per the Mizuho analyst, upcoming changes to EV incentives in the U.S. and China could affect Tesla’s unit growth more than previously expected.
Mizuho analyst Vijay Rakesh lowered Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) price target to $475 from $485, citing potential 2026 EV subsidy cuts in the U.S. and China that could pressure deliveries. The firm maintained its Outperform rating for the electric vehicle maker, however.
As per the Mizuho analyst, upcoming changes to EV incentives in the U.S. and China could affect Tesla’s unit growth more than previously expected. The U.S. accounted for roughly 37% of Tesla’s third-quarter 2025 sales, while China represented about 34%, making both markets highly sensitive to policy shifts. Potential 50% cuts to Chinese subsidies and reduced U.S. incentives affected the firm’s outlook.
With those pressures factored in, the firm now expects Tesla to deliver 1.75 million vehicles in 2026 and 2 million in 2027, slightly below consensus estimates of 1.82 million and 2.15 million, respectively. The analyst was cautiously optimistic, as near-term pressure from subsidies is there, but the company’s long-term tech roadmap remains very compelling.
Despite the revised target, Mizuho remained optimistic on Tesla’s long-term technology roadmap. The firm highlighted three major growth drivers into 2027: the broader adoption of Full Self-Driving V14, the expansion of Tesla’s Robotaxi service, and the commercialization of Optimus, the company’s humanoid robot.
“We are lowering TSLA Ests/PT to $475 with Potential BEV headwinds in 2026E. We believe into 2026E, US (~37% of TSLA 3Q25 sales) EV subsidy cuts and China (34% of TSLA 3Q25 sales) potential 50% EV subsidy cuts could be a headwind to EV deliveries.
-->“We are now estimating TSLA deliveries for 2026/27E at 1.75M/2.00M (slightly below cons. 1.82M/2.15M). We see some LT drivers with FSD v14 adoption for autonomous, robotaxi launches, and humanoid robots into 2027 driving strength,” the analyst noted.
Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) has landed an elusive “must own” status from Wall Street firm Melius, according to a new note released early this week.
Analyst Rob Wertheimer said Tesla will lead the charge in world-changing tech, given the company’s focus on self-driving, autonomy, and Robotaxi. In a note to investors, Wertheimer said “the world is about to change, dramatically,” because of the advent of self-driving cars.
He looks at the industry and sees many potential players, but the firm says there will only be one true winner:
“Our point is not that Tesla is at risk, it’s that everybody else is.”
The major argument is that autonomy is nearing a tipping point where years of chipping away at the software and data needed to develop a sound, safe, and effective form of autonomous driving technology turn into an avalanche of progress.
Wertheimer believes autonomy is a $7 trillion sector,” and in the coming years, investors will see “hundreds of billions in value shift to Tesla.”
A lot of the major growth has to do with the all-too-common “butts in seats” strategy, as Wertheimer believes that only a fraction of people in the United States have ridden in a self-driving car. In Tesla’s regard, only “tens of thousands” have tried Tesla’s latest Full Self-Driving (Supervised) version, which is v14.
Tesla Full Self-Driving v14.2 – Full Review, the Good and the Bad
When it reaches a widespread rollout and more people are able to experience Tesla Full Self-Driving v14, he believes “it will shock most people.”
Citing things like Tesla’s massive data pool from its vehicles, as well as its shift to end-to-end neural nets in 2021 and 2022, as well as the upcoming AI5 chip, which will be put into a handful of vehicles next year, but will reach a wider rollout in 2027, Melius believes many investors are not aware of the pace of advancement in self-driving.
Tesla’s lead in its self-driving efforts is expanding, Wertheimer says. The company is making strategic choices on everything from hardware to software, manufacturing, and overall vehicle design. He says Tesla has left legacy automakers struggling to keep pace as they still rely on outdated architectures and fragmented supplier systems.
Tesla shares are up over 6 percent at 10:40 a.m. on the East Coast, trading at around $416.
Investor's Corner
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) received fresh support from Piper Sandler this week after analysts toured the Fremont Factory and tested the company’s latest Full Self-Driving software. The firm reaffirmed its $500 price target, stating that FSD V14 delivered a notably smooth robotaxi demonstration and may already perform at levels comparable to, if not better than, average human drivers.
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Analysts highlight autonomy progress
During more than 75 minutes of focused discussions, analysts reportedly focused on FSD v14’s updates. Piper Sandler’s team pointed to meaningful strides in perception, object handling, and overall ride smoothness during the robotaxi demo.
The visit also included discussions on updates to Tesla’s in-house chip initiatives, its Optimus program, and the growth of the company’s battery storage business. Analysts noted that Tesla continues refining cost structures and capital expenditure expectations, which are key elements in future margin recovery, as noted in a Yahoo Finance report.
Analyst Alexander Potter noted that “we think FSD is a truly impressive product that is (probably) already better at driving than the average American.” This conclusion was strengthened by what he described as a “flawless robotaxi ride to the hotel.”
-->Street targets diverge on TSLA
While Piper Sandler stands by its $500 target, it is not the highest estimate on the Street. Wedbush, for one, has a $600 per share price target for TSLA stock.
Other institutions have also weighed in on TSLA stock as of late. HSBC reiterated a Reduce rating with a $131 target, citing a gap between earnings fundamentals and the company’s market value. By contrast, TD Cowen maintained a Buy rating and a $509 target, pointing to strong autonomous driving demonstrations in Austin and the pace of software-driven improvements.
Stifel analysts also lifted their price target for Tesla to $508 per share over the company’s ongoing robotaxi and FSD programs.
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