News
Tesla’s Cybertruck strategy is paving the way for pilot production that’s closer to home than expected
Elon Musk may still have accuracy issues when estimating the rollout dates of products like the Full Self-Driving Beta, but there is no denying that the Tesla CEO is starting to learn the art of sandbagging, at least to some degree. This is something that Elon Musk appears to be doing with the Tesla Cybertruck’s upcoming production, which is expected to begin its trial phases either late 2021 or early next year. Musk has been pretty conservative about the all-electric pickup trucks’ production in Gigafactory Texas, but if a recent report from the EV community is any indication, Tesla may have an ace up its sleeve for its Cybertruck rollout.
The Tesla Cybertruck has always been fated to be built in Gigafactory Texas, so much so that the facility was known in the electric vehicle community in the past as the “Cybertruck Gigafactory.” Yet over the months and as production equipment was spotted on the massive Texas-based complex, it became evident that it would not be the Cybertruck that would be produced first in Giga Texas. It would be the Model Y. This was hinted at by the Model Y Giga Press machines that have been spotted in the area.
The idea of Giga Texas starting its operations with the Model Y makes sense considering the demand for the all-electric crossover and the fact that the Fremont Factory is stretched thin as it is. However, it would not be an exaggeration to note that a good number of Tesla enthusiasts were a bit disappointed that the Texas-based facility would not be launching its operations with the production of the Cybertruck, a vehicle that seemed to be explicitly designed for Giga Texas production.
Fortunately, it appears that Tesla may have a plan to ensure that Cybertruck production in Gigafactory Texas does not get too delayed. Just recently, a number of EV community members such as FSD Beta user @WholeMarsBlog were informed that Tesla is already making the necessary moves to develop the Cybertruck’s prototype production lines. This reportedly involves Tesla building a pilot line for the all-electric pickup truck in the Fremont Factory. With such a prototype line in place at Fremont, Tesla could hit the ground running in Giga Texas.
These reports were immediately echoed by other EV community members, some of whom cited information reportedly related by Tesla employees from the Fremont Factory. Some have even remarked that Tesla employees moving to Texas due to the Cybertruck factory would be relocating to the Lone Star State around the end of May. Granted, these updates should be taken with a grain of salt, but they still highlight the fact that Tesla may actually have a pretty solid plan to ensure that the Cybertruck enters mass production as quickly and as smoothly as possible.
While unorthodox, Tesla’s recently reported strategy for the Cybertruck’s rollout actually makes quite a lot of sense. Having a line in Fremont for prototype validation vehicles would all but ensure that the Cybertruck’s lines in Gigafactory Texas would not require any substantial changes or adjustments when they are activated for mass production. But this is not all. The Fremont Factory is also a stone’s throw away from Tesla’s Roadrunner site, where the company is currently developing and ramping the production of its custom dry-electrode, tabless 4680 cells—the batteries that would most likely be used on the Cybertruck.
What’s particularly interesting about these recent updates is the fact that Elon Musk appears to be sandbagging the expectations surrounding the Cybertruck or Tesla’s 4680 battery cells. Unlike his typical tweets about the development of FSD features like Summon, Musk’s updates about the Cybertruck over the past months have been scarce and vague at the most. His estimated timeframes for the truck have been conservative as well. That being said, if Tesla is indeed preparing to start a pilot line in Fremont for the Cybertruck, then the company could very well be holding an ace up its sleeve—one that could shake the electric pickup market to its core when it is played.
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Elon Musk
Tesla CEO Elon Musk drops massive bomb about Cybercab
“And there is so much to this car that is not obvious on the surface,” Musk said.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk dropped a massive bomb about the Cybercab, which is the company’s fully autonomous ride-hailing vehicle that will enter production later this year.
The Cybercab was unveiled back in October 2024 at the company’s “We, Robot” event in Los Angeles, and is among the major catalysts for the company’s growth in the coming years. It is expected to push Tesla into a major growth phase, especially as the automaker is transitioning into more of an AI and Robotics company than anything else.
The Cybercab will enable completely autonomous ride-hailing for Tesla, and although its other vehicles will also be capable of this technology, the Cybercab is slightly different. It will have no steering wheel or pedals, and will allow two occupants to travel from Point A to Point B with zero responsibilities within the car.
Tesla shares epic 2025 recap video, confirms start of Cybercab production
Details on the Cybercab are pretty face value at this point: we know Tesla is enabling 1-2 passengers to ride in it at a time, and this strategy was based on statistics that show most ride-hailing trips have no more than two occupants. It will also have in-vehicle entertainment options accessible from the center touchscreen.
It will also have wireless charging capabilities, which were displayed at “We, Robot,” and there could be more features that will be highly beneficial to riders, offering a full-fledged autonomous experience.
Musk dropped a big hint that there is much more to the Cybercab than what we know, as a post on X said that “there is so much to this car that is not obvious on the surface.”
And there is so much to this car that is not obvious on the surface
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) January 2, 2026
As the Cybercab is expected to enter production later this year, Tesla is surely going to include a handful of things they have not yet revealed to the public.
Musk seems to be indicating that some of the features will make it even more groundbreaking, and the idea is to enable a truly autonomous experience from start to finish for riders. Everything from climate control to emergency systems, and more, should be included with the car.
It seems more likely than not that Tesla will make the Cybercab its smartest vehicle so far, as if its current lineup is not already extremely intelligent, user-friendly, and intuitive.
Investor's Corner
Tesla Q4 delivery numbers are better than they initially look: analyst
The Deepwater Asset Management Managing Partner shared his thoughts in a post on his website.
Longtime Tesla analyst and Deepwater Asset Management Managing Partner Gene Munster has shared his insights on Tesla’s Q4 2025 deliveries. As per the analyst, Tesla’s numbers are actually better than they first appear.
Munster shared his thoughts in a post on his website.
Normalized December Deliveries
Munster noted that Tesla delivered 418k vehicles in the fourth quarter of 2025, slightly below Street expectations of 420k but above the whisper number of 415k. Tesla’s reported 16% year-over-year decline, compared to +7% in September, is largely distorted by the timing of the tax credit expiration, which pulled forward demand.
“Taking a step back, we believe September deliveries pulled forward approximately 55k units that would have otherwise occurred in December or March. For simplicity, we assume the entire pull-forward impacted the December quarter. Under this assumption, September growth would have been down ~5% absent the 55k pull-forward, a Deepwater estimate tied to the credit’s expiration.
“For December deliveries to have declined ~5% year over year would imply total deliveries of roughly 470k. Subtracting the 55k units pulled into September results in an implied December delivery figure of approximately 415k. The reported 418k suggests that, when normalizing for the tax credit timing, quarter-over-quarter growth has been consistently down ~5%. Importantly, this ~5% decline represents an improvement from the ~13% declines seen in both the March and June 2025 quarters.“
Tesla’s United States market share
Munster also estimated that Q4 as a whole might very well show a notable improvement in Tesla’s market share in the United States.
“Over the past couple of years, based on data from Cox Automotive, Tesla has been losing U.S. EV market share, declining to just under 50%. Based on data for October and November, Cox estimates that total U.S. EV sales were down approximately 35%, compared to Tesla’s just reported down 16% for the full quarter. For the first two months of the quarter, Cox reported Tesla market share of roughly a 65% share, up from under 50% in the September quarter.
“While this data excludes December, the quarter as a whole is likely to show a material improvement in Tesla’s U.S. EV market share.“
Elon Musk
Tesla analyst breaks down delivery report: ‘A step in the right direction’
“This will be viewed as better than feared deliveries and a step in the right direction for the Tesla story heading into 2026,” Ives wrote.
Tesla analyst Dan Ives of Wedbush released a new note on Friday morning just after the company released production and delivery figures for Q4 and the full year of 2025, stating that the numbers, while slightly underwhelming, are “better than feared” and as “a step in the right direction.”
Tesla reported production of 434,358 and deliveries of 418,227 for the fourth quarter, while 1,654,667 vehicles were produced and 1,636,129 cars were delivered for the full year.
Tesla releases Q4 and FY 2025 vehicle delivery and production report
Interestingly, the company posted its own consensus figures that were compiled from various firms on its website a few days ago, where expectations were set at 1,640,752 cars for the year. Tesla fell about 4,000 units short of that. One of the areas where Tesla excelled was energy deployments, which totaled 46.7 GWh for the year.
🚨 Wedbush’s Dan Ives has released a new note on Tesla $TSLA:
“Tesla announced its FY4Q25 delivery numbers this morning coming in at 418.2k vehicles slightly below the company’s consensus delivery estimate of 422.9k but much better than the whisper numbers of ~410k as the…
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) January 2, 2026
In terms of vehicle deliveries, Ives writes that Tesla certainly has some things to work through if it wants to return to growth in that aspect, especially with the loss of the $7,500 tax credit in the U.S. and “continuous headwinds” for the company in Europe.
However, Ives also believes that, given the delivery numbers, which were on par with expectations, Tesla is positioned well for a strong 2026, especially with its AI focus, Robotaxi and Cybercab development, and energy:
“This will be viewed as better than feared deliveries and a step in the right direction for the Tesla story heading into 2026. We look forward to hearing more at the company’s 4Q25 call on January 28th. AI Valuation – The Focus Throughout 2026. We believe Tesla could reach a $2 trillion market cap over the coming year and, in a bull case scenario, $3 trillion by the end of 2026…as full-scale volume production begins with the autonomous and robotics roadmap…The company has started to test the all-important Cybercab in Austin over the past few weeks, which is an incremental step towards launching in 2026 with important volume production of Cybercabs starting in April/May, which remains the golden goose in unlocking TSLA’s AI valuation.”
It’s no secret that for the past several years, Tesla’s vehicle delivery numbers have been the main focus of investors and analysts have looked at them as an indicator of company health to a certain extent. The problem with that narrative in 2025 and 2026 is that Tesla is now focusing more on the deployment of Full Self-Driving, its Optimus project, AI development, and Cybercab.
While vehicle deliveries still hold importance, it is more crucial to note that Tesla’s overall environment as a business relies on much more than just how many cars are purchased. That metric, to a certain extent, is fading in importance in the grand scheme of things, but it will never totally disappear.
Ives and Wedbush maintained their $600 price target and an ‘Outperform’ rating on the stock.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk drops massive bomb about Cybercab
Tesla Q4 delivery numbers are better than they initially look: analyst
