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Tesla Cybertruck poised to start trial production runs in Giga Texas in May 2021
Tesla’s Gigafactory Texas is being built in an incredibly rapid manner, seemingly matching or perhaps even exceeding the pace of Gigafactory Berlin, which is looking to start Model Y production next year. If a recent presentation from Tesla is any indication, it appears that the expedited activities in the Giga Texas complex are intended, as the company seems to be looking to start the Cybertruck’s trial production as early as May 2021.
Tesla recently presented its “Travis County Colorado River Project Partner Pre‐Qualification Presentation,” which included a rough timeframe for the upcoming Cybertruck and Semi factory. The presentation, which was posted on the website of the City of Austin and shared by Tesla Motors Club member hridge20, revealed that Giga Texas’ “First Dry-In” is set for December 30, 2020, and its “First Substantial Completion” is scheduled for May 1, 2021.
As noted in an Inspectapedia post, “dry-in” typically means that a building’s shell has been completed to a sufficient degree, allowing the facility and its interior to avoid damage from rain, wind, and other weather-related factors. At the dry-in stage, the installation of weather-sensitive materials and equipment could commence, which, in Tesla’s case, may refer to the Cybertruck’s production equipment.
“First Substantial Completion,” on the other hand, refers to the stage when a construction project is completed to a degree where it could be used for its intended purpose. With this in mind, it appears that Tesla is looking to have the installation of the Cybertruck’s production equipment done by May, allowing the company to start trial runs of the all-electric pickup truck before the end of the second quarter of 2021.
Granted, this is a very aggressive target. However, the equipment for the Cybertruck’s production line may require less time to set up compared to the Model 3 and Model Y line in Fremont and Shanghai, since the vehicle will use no stamping machines due to its XY design. The Cybertruck will not need a paint shop either, thanks to its steel exoskeleton.
If Tesla’s recent presentation proves accurate, the company could definitely be on pace to hit its self-imposed target for the start of Cybertruck deliveries. Currently, Tesla estimates that Cybertruck deliveries could begin in late 2021, with the Tri-Motor AWD and Dual-Motor AWD variants being rolled out first. The base Cybertruck, which will cost less than $40,000, is expected to be rolled out the following year.
Considering the targets outlined in Tesla’s recent Travis County presentation and the Cybertruck’s estimated delivery dates, it appears that the electric car maker is actually adopting a pretty conservative rollout target for the all-electric pickup. If trial production could begin in May 2021, after all, Tesla will have the rest of the year to refine and release the Cybertruck. Starting trial production in the second quarter of 2021 also allows the company to gain some momentum in the EV market, which could be strategic considering that the first all-electric pickup, the Rivian R1T, is poised to start deliveries in June 2021.
Tesla’s “Travis County Colorado River Project Partner Pre‐Qualification Presentation” could be accessed below.
Tesla Partner Prequalification Presentation- August 27 2020 by Simon Alvarez on Scribd
Elon Musk
SpaceX issues statement on Starship V3 Booster 18 anomaly
The incident unfolded during gas-system pressure testing at the company’s Massey facility in Starbase, Texas.
SpaceX has issued an initial statement about Starship Booster 18’s anomaly early Friday. The incident unfolded during gas-system pressure testing at the company’s Massey facility in Starbase, Texas.
SpaceX’s initial comment
As per SpaceX in a post on its official account on social media platform X, Booster 18 was undergoing gas system pressure tests when the anomaly happened. Despite the nature of the incident, the company emphasized that no propellant was loaded, no engines were installed, and personnel were kept at a safe distance from the booster, resulting in zero injuries.
“Booster 18 suffered an anomaly during gas system pressure testing that we were conducting in advance of structural proof testing. No propellant was on the vehicle, and engines were not yet installed. The teams need time to investigate before we are confident of the cause. No one was injured as we maintain a safe distance for personnel during this type of testing. The site remains clear and we are working plans to safely reenter the site,” SpaceX wrote in its post on X.
Incident and aftermath
Livestream footage from LabPadre showed Booster 18’s lower half crumpling around the liquid oxygen tank area at approximately 4:04 a.m. CT. Subsequent images posted by on-site observers revealed extensive deformation across the booster’s lower structure. Needless to say, spaceflight observers have noted that Booster 18 would likely be a complete loss due to its anomaly.
Booster 18 had rolled out only a day earlier and was one of the first vehicles in the Starship V3 program. The V3 series incorporates structural reinforcements and reliability upgrades intended to prepare Starship for rapid-reuse testing and eventual tower-catch operations. Elon Musk has been optimistic about Starship V3, previously noting on X that the spacecraft might be able to complete initial missions to Mars.
Investor's Corner
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) received fresh support from Piper Sandler this week after analysts toured the Fremont Factory and tested the company’s latest Full Self-Driving software. The firm reaffirmed its $500 price target, stating that FSD V14 delivered a notably smooth robotaxi demonstration and may already perform at levels comparable to, if not better than, average human drivers.
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Analysts highlight autonomy progress
During more than 75 minutes of focused discussions, analysts reportedly focused on FSD v14’s updates. Piper Sandler’s team pointed to meaningful strides in perception, object handling, and overall ride smoothness during the robotaxi demo.
The visit also included discussions on updates to Tesla’s in-house chip initiatives, its Optimus program, and the growth of the company’s battery storage business. Analysts noted that Tesla continues refining cost structures and capital expenditure expectations, which are key elements in future margin recovery, as noted in a Yahoo Finance report.
Analyst Alexander Potter noted that “we think FSD is a truly impressive product that is (probably) already better at driving than the average American.” This conclusion was strengthened by what he described as a “flawless robotaxi ride to the hotel.”
Street targets diverge on TSLA
While Piper Sandler stands by its $500 target, it is not the highest estimate on the Street. Wedbush, for one, has a $600 per share price target for TSLA stock.
Other institutions have also weighed in on TSLA stock as of late. HSBC reiterated a Reduce rating with a $131 target, citing a gap between earnings fundamentals and the company’s market value. By contrast, TD Cowen maintained a Buy rating and a $509 target, pointing to strong autonomous driving demonstrations in Austin and the pace of software-driven improvements.
Stifel analysts also lifted their price target for Tesla to $508 per share over the company’s ongoing robotaxi and FSD programs.
Elon Musk
SpaceX Starship Version 3 booster crumples in early testing
Photos of the incident’s aftermath suggest that Booster 18 will likely be retired.
SpaceX’s new Starship first-stage booster, Booster 18, suffered major damage early Friday during its first round of testing in Starbase, Texas, just one day after rolling out of the factory.
Based on videos of the incident, the lower section of the rocket booster appeared to crumple during a pressurization test. Photos of the incident’s aftermath suggest that Booster 18 will likely be retired.
Booster test failure
SpaceX began structural and propellant-system verification tests on Booster 18 Thursday night at the Massey’s Test Site, only a few miles from Starbase’s production facilities, as noted in an Ars Technica report. At 4:04 a.m. CT on Friday, a livestream from LabPadre Space captured the booster’s lower half experiencing a sudden destructive event around its liquid oxygen tank section. Post-incident images, shared on X by @StarshipGazer, showed notable deformation in the booster’s lower structure.
Neither SpaceX nor Elon Musk had commented as of Friday morning, but the vehicle’s condition suggests it is likely a complete loss. This is quite unfortunate, as Booster 18 is already part of the Starship V3 program, which includes design fixes and upgrades intended to improve reliability. While SpaceX maintains a rather rapid Starship production line in Starbase, Booster 18 was generally expected to validate the improvements implemented in the V3 program.
Tight deadlines
SpaceX needs Starship boosters and upper stages to begin demonstrating rapid reuse, tower catches, and early operational Starlink missions over the next two years. More critically, NASA’s Artemis program depends on an on-orbit refueling test in the second half of 2026, a requirement for the vehicle’s expected crewed lunar landing around 2028.
While SpaceX is known for diagnosing failures quickly and returning to testing at unmatched speed, losing the newest-generation booster at the very start of its campaign highlights the immense challenge involved in scaling Starship into a reliable, high-cadence launch system. SpaceX, however, is known for getting things done quickly, so it would not be a surprise if the company manages to figure out what happened to Booster 18 in the near future.
SpaceX issues statement on Starship V3 Booster 18 anomaly
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
