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Tesla Cybertruck poised to start trial production runs in Giga Texas in May 2021
Tesla’s Gigafactory Texas is being built in an incredibly rapid manner, seemingly matching or perhaps even exceeding the pace of Gigafactory Berlin, which is looking to start Model Y production next year. If a recent presentation from Tesla is any indication, it appears that the expedited activities in the Giga Texas complex are intended, as the company seems to be looking to start the Cybertruck’s trial production as early as May 2021.
Tesla recently presented its “Travis County Colorado River Project Partner Pre‐Qualification Presentation,” which included a rough timeframe for the upcoming Cybertruck and Semi factory. The presentation, which was posted on the website of the City of Austin and shared by Tesla Motors Club member hridge20, revealed that Giga Texas’ “First Dry-In” is set for December 30, 2020, and its “First Substantial Completion” is scheduled for May 1, 2021.
As noted in an Inspectapedia post, “dry-in” typically means that a building’s shell has been completed to a sufficient degree, allowing the facility and its interior to avoid damage from rain, wind, and other weather-related factors. At the dry-in stage, the installation of weather-sensitive materials and equipment could commence, which, in Tesla’s case, may refer to the Cybertruck’s production equipment.
“First Substantial Completion,” on the other hand, refers to the stage when a construction project is completed to a degree where it could be used for its intended purpose. With this in mind, it appears that Tesla is looking to have the installation of the Cybertruck’s production equipment done by May, allowing the company to start trial runs of the all-electric pickup truck before the end of the second quarter of 2021.
Granted, this is a very aggressive target. However, the equipment for the Cybertruck’s production line may require less time to set up compared to the Model 3 and Model Y line in Fremont and Shanghai, since the vehicle will use no stamping machines due to its XY design. The Cybertruck will not need a paint shop either, thanks to its steel exoskeleton.
If Tesla’s recent presentation proves accurate, the company could definitely be on pace to hit its self-imposed target for the start of Cybertruck deliveries. Currently, Tesla estimates that Cybertruck deliveries could begin in late 2021, with the Tri-Motor AWD and Dual-Motor AWD variants being rolled out first. The base Cybertruck, which will cost less than $40,000, is expected to be rolled out the following year.
Considering the targets outlined in Tesla’s recent Travis County presentation and the Cybertruck’s estimated delivery dates, it appears that the electric car maker is actually adopting a pretty conservative rollout target for the all-electric pickup. If trial production could begin in May 2021, after all, Tesla will have the rest of the year to refine and release the Cybertruck. Starting trial production in the second quarter of 2021 also allows the company to gain some momentum in the EV market, which could be strategic considering that the first all-electric pickup, the Rivian R1T, is poised to start deliveries in June 2021.
Tesla’s “Travis County Colorado River Project Partner Pre‐Qualification Presentation” could be accessed below.
Tesla Partner Prequalification Presentation- August 27 2020 by Simon Alvarez on Scribd
Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) closed at an all-time high on Tuesday, jumping over 3 percent during the day and finishing at $489.88.
The price beats the previous record close, which was $479.86.
Shares have had a crazy year, dipping more than 40 percent from the start of the year. The stock then started to recover once again around late April, when its price started to climb back up from the low $200 level.
This week, Tesla started to climb toward its highest levels ever, as it was revealed on Sunday that the company was testing driverless Robotaxis in Austin. The spike in value pushed the company’s valuation to $1.63 trillion.
Tesla Robotaxi goes driverless as Musk confirms Safety Monitor removal testing
It is the seventh-most valuable company on the market currently, trailing Nvidia, Apple, Alphabet (Google), Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta.
Shares closed up $14.57 today, up over 3 percent.
The stock has gone through a lot this year, as previously mentioned. Shares tumbled in Q1 due to CEO Elon Musk’s involvement with the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), which pulled his attention away from his companies and left a major overhang on their valuations.
However, things started to rebound halfway through the year, and as the government started to phase out the $7,500 tax credit, demand spiked as consumers tried to take advantage of it.
Q3 deliveries were the highest in company history, and Tesla responded to the loss of the tax credit with the launch of the Model 3 and Model Y Standard.
Additionally, analysts have announced high expectations this week for the company on Wall Street as Robotaxi continues to be the focus. With autonomy within Tesla’s sights, things are moving in the direction of Robotaxi being a major catalyst for growth on the Street in the coming year.
Elon Musk
Tesla needs to come through on this one Robotaxi metric, analyst says
“We think the key focus from here will be how fast Tesla can scale driverless operations (including if Tesla’s approach to software/hardware allows it to scale significantly faster than competitors, as the company has argued), and on profitability.”
Tesla needs to come through on this one Robotaxi metric, Mark Delaney of Goldman Sachs says.
Tesla is in the process of rolling out its Robotaxi platform to areas outside of Austin and the California Bay Area. It has plans to launch in five additional cities, including Houston, Dallas, Miami, Las Vegas, and Phoenix.
However, the company’s expansion is not what the focus needs to be, according to Delaney. It’s the speed of deployment.
The analyst said:
“We think the key focus from here will be how fast Tesla can scale driverless operations (including if Tesla’s approach to software/hardware allows it to scale significantly faster than competitors, as the company has argued), and on profitability.”
Profitability will come as the Robotaxi fleet expands. Making that money will be dependent on when Tesla can initiate rides in more areas, giving more customers access to the program.
There are some additional things that the company needs to make happen ahead of the major Robotaxi expansion, one of those things is launching driverless rides in Austin, the first city in which it launched the program.
This week, Tesla started testing driverless Robotaxi rides in Austin, as two different Model Y units were spotted with no occupants, a huge step in the company’s plans for the ride-sharing platform.
Tesla Robotaxi goes driverless as Musk confirms Safety Monitor removal testing
CEO Elon Musk has been hoping to remove Safety Monitors from Robotaxis in Austin for several months, first mentioning the plan to have them out by the end of 2025 in September. He confirmed on Sunday that Tesla had officially removed vehicle occupants and started testing truly unsupervised rides.
Although Safety Monitors in Austin have been sitting in the passenger’s seat, they have still had the ability to override things in case of an emergency. After all, the ultimate goal was safety and avoiding any accidents or injuries.
Goldman Sachs reiterated its ‘Neutral’ rating and its $400 price target. Delaney said, “Tesla is making progress with its autonomous technology,” and recent developments make it evident that this is true.
Investor's Corner
Tesla gets bold Robotaxi prediction from Wall Street firm
Last week, Andrew Percoco took over Tesla analysis for Morgan Stanley from Adam Jonas, who covered the stock for years. Percoco seems to be less optimistic and bullish on Tesla shares, while still being fair and balanced in his analysis.
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) received a bold Robotaxi prediction from Morgan Stanley, which anticipates a dramatic increase in the size of the company’s autonomous ride-hailing suite in the coming years.
Last week, Andrew Percoco took over Tesla analysis for Morgan Stanley from Adam Jonas, who covered the stock for years. Percoco seems to be less optimistic and bullish on Tesla shares, while still being fair and balanced in his analysis.
Percoco dug into the Robotaxi fleet and its expansion in the coming years in his latest note, released on Tuesday. The firm expects Tesla to increase the Robotaxi fleet size to 1,000 vehicles in 2026. However, that’s small-scale compared to what they expect from Tesla in a decade.
Tesla expands Robotaxi app access once again, this time on a global scale
By 2035, Morgan Stanley believes there will be one million Robotaxis on the road across multiple cities, a major jump and a considerable fleet size. We assume this means the fleet of vehicles Tesla will operate internally, and not including passenger-owned vehicles that could be added through software updates.
He also listed three specific catalysts that investors should pay attention to, as these will represent the company being on track to achieve its Robotaxi dreams:
- Opening Robotaxi to the public without a Safety Monitor. Timing is unclear, but it appears that Tesla is getting closer by the day.
- Improvement in safety metrics without the Safety Monitor. Tesla’s ability to improve its safety metrics as it scales miles driven without the Safety Monitor is imperative as it looks to scale in new states and cities in 2026.
- Cybercab start of production, targeted for April 2026. Tesla’s Cybercab is a purpose-built vehicle (no steering wheel or pedals, only two seats) that is expected to be produced through its state-of-the-art unboxed manufacturing process, offering further cost reductions and thus accelerating adoption over time.
Robotaxi stands to be one of Tesla’s most significant revenue contributors, especially as the company plans to continue expanding its ride-hailing service across the world in the coming years.
Its current deployment strategy is controlled and conservative to avoid any drastic and potentially program-ruining incidents.
So far, the program, which is active in Austin and the California Bay Area, has been widely successful.
Tesla stock closes at all-time high on heels of Robotaxi progress
Tesla needs to come through on this one Robotaxi metric, analyst says
