Investor's Corner
Elon Musk’s quirky weekend tweets could hint at Tesla Model 3 surprise for Q1
Tesla has just completed the first quarter of 2019, and all eyes are now on the company as it prepares to release its first quarter vehicle production and deliveries report. As the electric car maker’s supporters and critics brace for the release of Tesla’s official numbers, Elon Musk appears to be maintaining a very pleasant disposition, hinting at a possible Model 3 surprise for Q1.
Musk seemed notably relaxed during the last two days of March. Over the weekend, Musk tweeted about ducks, released a heavily autotuned rap song titled RIP Harambe, and lamented the fall of his record label (named Emo G Records), just to name a few. The tweets exhibited Musk’s classic witty, self-deprecating humor, but most of all, they were notably (and given the time of the tweets, surprisingly) lighthearted. These seemingly random, goofy tweets were interspersed with messages of thanks to the Tesla team, which continued to push vehicle deliveries all the way until the end of March 31.
“Amazing work by Tesla Delivery teams, especially in Europe & China! Most insane logistics challenge I’ve ever seen. Thanks also to many country & city officials for your help this weekend! Super appreciated,” Musk wrote on Twitter.
Musk’s sunny disposition and quirky, off-topic tweets at the end of the quarter could be interpreted in several ways, one of these being that Tesla has met or even exceeded the CEO’s expectations for Q1 2019. Musk has been conservative about Tesla’s performance in the first quarter, even noting that Tesla might not be profitable in Q1. Despite these, Musk has set ambitious goals for the Tesla team, noting in an email midway through March that the company should aim to deliver 30,000 more vehicles by the end of the quarter.
What then, could be the reason behind Elon Musk’s tweet-filled weekend? A potential clue might lie in the Q1 estimates of Bloomberg‘s Model 3 tracker, which has become amazingly accurate over the past quarters. The tracker only overestimated Tesla’s Model 3 numbers once in the past, with the tool’s prediction being 0.4% over the electric car maker’s actual production figures. This accuracy was on display once more in Q4 2018, with the tracker being just 0.5% off Tesla’s actual numbers. By the end of Q1 2019, Bloomberg‘s Model 3 tracker was estimating a production of 79,856 Model 3, far above the average analyst estimate of 64,000 units listed by research firm Visible Alpha.
Whether Bloomberg‘s Model 3 tracker will prove to be as accurate as before or uncharacteristically inaccurate this time around remains to be seen. Considering reports from countries such as China, where deliveries were conducted until the midnight of March 31, there is a pretty fair chance that Elon Musk’s pleasant mood might bode well for Tesla after all.
Elon Musk
Norway’s $2 trillion sovereign wealth fund votes against Elon Musk’s 2025 performance award
The fund is managed by Norges Bank Investment Management (NBIM), and it holds a 1.14% stake in Tesla valued at about $11.6 billion.
Norway’s $2 trillion sovereign wealth fund has voted against Elon Musk’s 2025 performance award, which will be ultimately decided at Tesla’s upcoming annual shareholder meeting.
The fund is managed by Norges Bank Investment Management (NBIM), and it holds a 1.14% stake in Tesla valued at about $11.6 billion.
NBIM’s opposition
NBIM confirmed it had already cast its vote against Musk’s pay package, citing concerns over its total size, dilution, and lack of mitigation of key person risk, as noted in a CNBC report. The fund acknowledged Musk’s leadership of the EV maker, and it stated that it will continue to seek dialogue with Tesla about its concerns.
“While we appreciate the significant value created under Mr. Musk’s visionary role, we are concerned about the total size of the award, dilution, and lack of mitigation of key person risk- consistent with our views on executive compensation. We will continue to seek constructive dialogue with Tesla on this and other topics,” NBIM noted.
The upcoming Tesla annual shareholder meeting will decide whether Musk should receive his proposed 2025 performance award, which would grant him large stock options over the next decade if Tesla hits several ambitious milestones, such as a market cap of $8.5 trillion. The 2025 performance award will also increase Musk’s stake in Tesla to 25%.
Elon Musk and NBIM
Elon Musk’s proposed 2025 CEO performance award has proven polarizing, with large investors split on whether the executive should be given a pay package that, if fully completed, would make him a trillionaire.
Institutional Shareholder Services and Glass Lewis have recommended that shareholders vote against the deal, and initiatives such as the “Take Back Tesla” campaign have rallied investors to oppose the proposed performance award. On the other hand, other large investors such as ARK Invest and the State Board of Administration of Florida (SBA) have urged shareholders to approve the compensation plan.
Interestingly enough, this is not the first time that Musk and NBIM have found themselves on opposing sides. Last year, NBIM voted against reinstating Musk’s 2018 performance award, which had already been fully accomplished but was rescinded by a Delaware judge.
Later reports shared text messages between Musk and NBIM Chief Executive Nicolai Tangen, who was inviting the CEO to a dinner in Oslo. Musk declined the invitation, writing, “When I ask you for a favor, which I very rarely do, and you decline, then you should not ask me for one until you’ve done something to make amends. Friends are as friends do.”
Investor's Corner
Michael Dell points out practical advantage of Elon Musk’s proposed pay package
As pointed out by the Dell Technologies CEO, Musk will only be rewarded if he delivers extraordinary value to shareholders
Michael Dell has weighed in on Elon Musk’s controversial 2025 CEO Performance Award, offering a grounded perspective amidst the noise surrounding the pay package today.
As pointed out by the Dell Technologies CEO, Musk will only be rewarded if he delivers extraordinary value to shareholders. Musk would quite literally receive no compensation if he fails to achieve his targets.
Dell emphasizes results over rhetoric
Dell shared his thoughts about Musk’s 2025 CEO Performance Award in a post on X.“Vote FOR Elon Musk. The award is only achieved IF he hits exceptionally ambitious market-cap and operational milestones—if he falls short, he gets nothing,” Dell wrote in his post.
“If he succeeds, shareholders will win big through unprecedented value creation, and he will earn added voting rights to continue driving Tesla’s long-term vision.”
Musk replied with a short “Thanks Michael,” acknowledging Dell’s support. Dell’s framing cuts through the debate surrounding Musk’s compensation, as he simply focused on the incentive structure’s risk-reward balance.
Musk’s ambitious pay package
Elon Musk’s 2025 CEO Performance Award requires Tesla’s market capitalization to rise from roughly $1.1 trillion today to $8.5 trillion within a decade. This would make Tesla more valuable than any company in history.
Apart from this, Tesla’s operating profit must also grow from $17 billion to $400 billion annually. Musk must also lead the company to several product-related milestones, such as 20 million cumulative vehicle deliveries, 10 million Full Self-Driving subscriptions, 1 million Tesla Bots, and 1 million operating Robotaxis.
So far, proxy advisors Glass Lewis and ISS have urged shareholders to vote against the plan. Some prominent investors, including ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood, however, have voiced strong support for the plan. Wood called Musk “the most productive human being on earth,” arguing that his vision and ability to attract talent are central to Tesla’s success.
Investor's Corner
Elon Musk’s 2025 pay package gets support from Tesla’s biggest bull
ARK Invest founder Cathie Wood has previously stated that she is quite confident that the vote on Elon Musk’s 2025 Performance Award would pass.
Cathie Wood, CEO of ARK Invest and one of Tesla’s most ardent bulls, reiterated her support for Elon Musk’s 2025 CEO Performance Award.
Wood highlighted that Musk’s leadership attracts incredible talent, and it has allowed the companies he leads such as Tesla to become disruptors in their respective fields.
ARK Invest supports Musk’s leadership
Elon Musk’s 2025 CEO Performance Award has received a mixed reception. Proxy firms such as Glass Lewis and Institutional Shareholder Services (ISS) have stated that they would be voting against Musk’s pay package. Other entities, such as the State Board of Administration of Florida (SBA), have stated that they would be voting in favor of Tesla’s proposals.
ARK Invest founder Cathie Wood, for her part, has previously stated that she is quite confident that the vote on Elon Musk’s 2025 Performance Award would pass. She also stated that a favorable result to the vote for Musk’s 2025 pay plan would be beneficial for Tesla.
“Elon Musk is the most productive human being on earth. And a human being who attracts incredible talent, people who want to solve the world’s hardest problems. This is a win-win for all of us if Elon succeeds this time,” Wood stated. Musk appreciated Wood’s comments, stating, “Thanks Cathie!” In a post on X.
ARK Invest has been one of Tesla’s most loyal bulls
Tesla is ARK Invest’s single largest holding, with the firm holding an estimated $1 billion worth of TSLA, as noted in an Insider report. Wood previously said she expects the approval of Musk’s pay package to trigger “super-exponential growth” for the automaker, as new products like the Cybercab and Optimus expand Tesla’s offerings.
“Because think about it. It is a convergence among three of our major platforms. So, robots, energy storage, AI, and it’s not stopping with Robotaxis. There’s a story beyond that with humanoid robots, and our $2,600 number has nothing for humanoid robots. We just thought it’d be an investment, period,” Wood stated during an appearance at Steven Bartlett’s podcast The Diary Of A CEO.
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