Investor's Corner
Elon Musk’s SEC settlement has cleared a path for Tesla’s record-breaking Q3 results
For Tesla, the past three months have been filled with incredible milestones and daunting challenges. Since producing 5,000 Model 3 in a week at the end of Q2, the electric car maker has steadily pushed itself out of “production hell” and well into Elon Musk’s self-dubbed “delivery logistics hell.” As the final hours of the third quarter trickle down, Tesla is now on full throttle as it attempts to end Q3 2018 on a historic note.
It has not been easy for Tesla, and particularly its CEO, Elon Musk. It is not difficult to see that Musk’s status as a rockstar CEO has served Tesla well, but at the same time, some of Musk’s personal mistakes have also negatively affected the electric car maker. Earlier this month, for example, Tesla stock took a steep tumble after news of two executive departures were augmented by Musk’s actions during a podcast, which included an instance when he seemingly smoked cannabis.
Perhaps Musk’s most notable gaffe, though, was a post last August stating that he was considering taking Tesla private at $420 per share, and that he had “funding secured.” The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) ultimately filed a lawsuit against Musk over his “funding secured” tweet, claiming that the CEO knowingly misled investors. Musk settled with the SEC this weekend, agreeing to pay a total penalty of $40 million, comprised of a $20 million personal fine and another $20 million fine for Tesla. Part of the settlement also included Musk’s resignation as Chairman of Tesla’s Board of Directors, the appointment of two new independent directors, as well as the creation of a new committee tasked to “place additional controls and procedures to oversee Musk’s communications,” particularly on social media platforms such as Twitter.
While it is unfortunate that Elon Musk must relinquish his post as Chairman of Tesla’s Board of Directors, his settlement with the SEC could ultimately be seen as Musk’s decision to take a personal blow instead of compromising Tesla’s progress. Elon Musk, after all, reportedly rejected the SEC’s initial settlement, and by Friday, it seemed like he was preparing to battle it out with the government agency. This was one of the reasons why the SEC’s announcement on Saturday about Elon Musk’s settlement came as a welcome surprise for the Tesla community.
Ultimately, Elon Musk appears to have put Tesla before his own wishes to fight back against the SEC. And it wasn’t like he was cornered by the government agency either. Former SEC senior counsel Thomas Gorman, who is also a partner at the law firm Dorsey & Whitney, stated that the agency miscalculated when it filed a lawsuit against Musk. Gorman noted that while Elon Musk’s “funding secured” tweet last August was not smart from a business perspective, the SEC would have a very difficult time proving that the CEO actually committed fraud. Gorman further noted that the Saudi fund’s reported interest in Tesla’s take-private deal would likely be enough to make Musk’s statements legal.
“There’s a reasonable basis for what he said. I’m not questioning their motive. I just disagree with their judgment here,” Gorman said.
Ultimately, Elon Musk’s SEC settlement has now provided a clear path for Tesla to attain a record-breaking third quarter without any unnecessary drama. Elon Musk himself has noted that Tesla’s main challenge now is delivering as many vehicles to reservation holders as quickly as possible. Tesla, for its part, has begun adapting to the delivery challenges. Handovers reportedly go well into the night, home deliveries are being done to a number of reservation holders, and even owners of Tesla vehicles who are willing to volunteer their time have been tapped to help the company in its end-of-quarter push. Tesla’s production and delivery figures this Q3 would likely set new records, and with Elon Musk’s SEC lawsuit in the rearview mirror, there is very little that can come between the electric car maker and even more impressive milestones.
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Elon Musk issued a second pointed warning to SpaceX short sellers on Tuesday, just hours before the company was set to release its first quarterly earnings as a publicly traded firm. Responding to a report highlighting elevated short interest, Musk wrote on X: “I try to warn them, but they just double down …”
The comment came as data from S3 Partners showed roughly 95 percent of available SPCX shares to borrow were on loan, translating to about 34 percent short interest as a percentage of the float. The stock has traded under pressure since its record-breaking IPO in June 2026, declining significantly from early peaks.
I try to warn them, but they just double down … 🤷♂️
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) August 4, 2026
This marks the second such message from Musk in under three weeks.
On July 17, amid post-IPO volatility, he stated: “The survival probability of firms who maintain a significant short position in SpaceX over time is very low.” At that time, SPCX had fallen roughly 30 percent from its peak above a $2.6 trillion valuation, with short sellers reportedly realizing gains of about $8.7 billion.
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Musk’s warning aligned with optimistic analyses projecting that Starship-driven cost reductions could enable a multi-trillion-dollar space economy through applications such as orbital solar power, asteroid mining, data centers, and Mars-related projects, positioning SpaceX as critical infrastructure.
SpaceX is scheduled to report second-quarter results after the market close later today, followed by a webcast. Analysts anticipate revenue near $6.9 billion, reflecting growth in Starlink, launch services, and AI-related segments. The earnings release precedes a major lockup expiration on August 6 that could free hundreds of millions of insider shares.
Musk has a long track record of confronting short sellers, particularly regarding Tesla, where he has argued that persistent bearish positions underestimate transformative technologies. Critics view his optimism as overly ambitious given near-term stock fluctuations, while supporters see temporary dips as opportunities in a longer-term expansion of the space economy.
As SpaceX opens its books to public scrutiny for the first time, the high short interest and Musk’s repeated cautions set the stage for heightened market attention on the results and management’s commentary.
Elon Musk’s space exploration company, SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX), is set to report its earnings for the second quarter today in what will be its first-ever earnings call since going public in July.
SpaceX is trading down roughly 25 percent from its IPO. These early stock signals are usually a bit tumultuous, and considering this is the first company actively launching rockets that is available on the stock exchange, investors might have a tendency to be a bit skittish.
However, there are going to be some details that investors will hear for the first time today on the earnings call. Here’s what to look for:
Wall Street Expectations
Revenue is expected to fall somewhere around $6.8 billion, and will be heavily driven by Starlink, which is SpaceX’s widely popular satellite internet platform that has been adopted by numerous airlines, cruise ships, and other maritime operations. It is also available for consumers at home or in their cars.
Earnings Per Share (EPS) expectations fall at a net loss of $0.23 per share. Wall Street sees this as a total net loss of roughly $1.9 billion.
EBITDA is expected to come in between $2 billion and $2.1 billion.
What Investors Want to Know
Tesla uses the Say platform to help work with both retail and institutional investors to answer relevant and quality questions that address concerns or questions that they might have.
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However, SpaceX is doing things differently, as the company launched its own Investor Relations website where these questions are being fielded. Just like the Tesla questions, they seem to be less focused on the operational tasks and overall progress of the company, and more novelty.
Here are the top five:
- Has the team thought about what possibilities there are with your mascot Asteroid? Whether it’s starting additional foundations for kids in its name, helping kids learn about space, etc. Kids are our future, and Asteroid would be a fun and easy way to help.
- Baby Asteroid is already making a difference through charity around the world. Could SpaceX take it even further with programs that inspire kids to explore space?
- SpaceX has some legendary vehicle names. Would you ever allow the public to name a Starship, even knowing there is a 99% chance it becomes Shipy McShipface?
- When can we expect to see more footage of the Human Landing System?
- Will Asteroid (your mascot) go to Mars?
SpaceX will report its earnings today, August 4, at 4:30 P.M. EDT.
SpaceX will report second quarter results after the market closes on Tuesday, August 4, marking the first time the company has opened its books to the public since its record IPO in June. Management will host a live audio only webcast at 4:30 p.m. ET, streamed on X, with no dial in option.
The debut carries more weight than a typical first quarter as a public company. Two trading days after the release, on August 6, the first tranche of SpaceX’s lockup expires, freeing roughly 911.5 million insider and employee shares, worth well over $100 billion at current prices and the largest such release in Wall Street history. A second, larger tranche tied to the stock trading 30 percent above its $135 IPO price never triggered, since shares have spent most of July trading below that price.
Wall Street’s models point to revenue near $6.9 billion for the quarter, up sharply from the $4.69 billion SpaceX reported in the first quarter, with a narrower per share loss than the $1.27 posted three months earlier, according to estimates compiled by Motley Fool. Those numbers will be the first look at how SpaceX’s three segments, Starlink, launch and AI, are performing independently.
SpaceX scores another massive Pentagon deal to support military satellites
Investors heading into the call have a specific list of questions. How many net new Starlink subscribers did SpaceX add after ending March with 10.3 million, and is average revenue per user holding up as the service expands into lower income markets. How much of the AI segment’s revenue reflects contract signings with Anthropic, Google and Reflection AI this year, deals that combined could annualize to nearly $28 billion if fully ramped. Whether capital expenditures, which nearly doubled in the AI segment alone between 2024 and 2025, are still accelerating or starting to plateau. And whether management offers any forward guidance at all, something SpaceX has never done publicly.
The report will also land days after Elon Musk publicly denied a Wall Street Journal report describing internal planning to separate Tesla’s China business ahead of a potential Tesla-SpaceX merger. Whether Musk or SpaceX executives address that speculation on the call, even indirectly, maybe something investors will be listening for on Tuesday.
As Teslarati reported after Musk’s own warning to short sellers last week, the CEO has made clear he expects skeptics to be proven wrong over time. Tuesday will be the first chance for the numbers themselves to make that case.
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