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Elon Musk’s SEC settlement has cleared a path for Tesla’s record-breaking Q3 results

[Credit: Avron/Twitter]

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For Tesla, the past three months have been filled with incredible milestones and daunting challenges. Since producing 5,000 Model 3 in a week at the end of Q2, the electric car maker has steadily pushed itself out of “production hell” and well into Elon Musk’s self-dubbed “delivery logistics hell.” As the final hours of the third quarter trickle down, Tesla is now on full throttle as it attempts to end Q3 2018 on a historic note.

It has not been easy for Tesla, and particularly its CEO, Elon Musk. It is not difficult to see that Musk’s status as a rockstar CEO has served Tesla well, but at the same time, some of Musk’s personal mistakes have also negatively affected the electric car maker. Earlier this month, for example, Tesla stock took a steep tumble after news of two executive departures were augmented by Musk’s actions during a podcast, which included an instance when he seemingly smoked cannabis. 

Perhaps Musk’s most notable gaffe, though, was a post last August stating that he was considering taking Tesla private at $420 per share, and that he had “funding secured.” The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) ultimately filed a lawsuit against Musk over his “funding secured” tweet, claiming that the CEO knowingly misled investors. Musk settled with the SEC this weekend, agreeing to pay a total penalty of $40 million, comprised of a $20 million personal fine and another $20 million fine for Tesla. Part of the settlement also included Musk’s resignation as Chairman of Tesla’s Board of Directors, the appointment of two new independent directors, as well as the creation of a new committee tasked to “place additional controls and procedures to oversee Musk’s communications,” particularly on social media platforms such as Twitter.

While it is unfortunate that Elon Musk must relinquish his post as Chairman of Tesla’s Board of Directors, his settlement with the SEC could ultimately be seen as Musk’s decision to take a personal blow instead of compromising Tesla’s progress. Elon Musk, after all, reportedly rejected the SEC’s initial settlement, and by Friday, it seemed like he was preparing to battle it out with the government agency. This was one of the reasons why the SEC’s announcement on Saturday about Elon Musk’s settlement came as a welcome surprise for the Tesla community.

Ultimately, Elon Musk appears to have put Tesla before his own wishes to fight back against the SEC. And it wasn’t like he was cornered by the government agency either. Former SEC senior counsel Thomas Gorman, who is also a partner at the law firm Dorsey & Whitney, stated that the agency miscalculated when it filed a lawsuit against Musk. Gorman noted that while Elon Musk’s “funding secured” tweet last August was not smart from a business perspective, the SEC would have a very difficult time proving that the CEO actually committed fraud. Gorman further noted that the Saudi fund’s reported interest in Tesla’s take-private deal would likely be enough to make Musk’s statements legal.

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“There’s a reasonable basis for what he said. I’m not questioning their motive. I just disagree with their judgment here,” Gorman said.

Ultimately, Elon Musk’s SEC settlement has now provided a clear path for Tesla to attain a record-breaking third quarter without any unnecessary drama. Elon Musk himself has noted that Tesla’s main challenge now is delivering as many vehicles to reservation holders as quickly as possible. Tesla, for its part, has begun adapting to the delivery challenges. Handovers reportedly go well into the night, home deliveries are being done to a number of reservation holders, and even owners of Tesla vehicles who are willing to volunteer their time have been tapped to help the company in its end-of-quarter push. Tesla’s production and delivery figures this Q3 would likely set new records, and with Elon Musk’s SEC lawsuit in the rearview mirror, there is very little that can come between the electric car maker and even more impressive milestones.

Simon is an experienced automotive reporter with a passion for electric cars and clean energy. Fascinated by the world envisioned by Elon Musk, he hopes to make it to Mars (at least as a tourist) someday. For stories or tips--or even to just say a simple hello--send a message to his email, simon@teslarati.com or his handle on X, @ResidentSponge.

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Investor's Corner

Stifel raises Tesla price target by 9.8% over FSD, Robotaxi advancements

Stifel also maintained a “Buy” rating for the electric vehicle maker.

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Credit: Tesla China

Investment firm Stifel has raised its price target for Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) shares to $483 from $440 over increased confidence in the company’s self-driving and Robotaxi programs. The new price target suggests an 11.5% upside from Tesla’s closing price on Tuesday.

Stifel also maintained a “Buy” rating despite acknowledging that Tesla’s timeline for fully unsupervised driving may be ambitious.

Building confidence

In a note to clients, Stifel stated that it believes “Tesla is making progress with modest advancements in its Robotaxi network and FSD,” as noted in a report from Investing.com. The firm expects unsupervised FSD to become available for personal use in the U.S. by the end of 2025, with a wider ride-hailing rollout potentially covering half of the U.S. population by year-end.

Stifel also noted that Tesla’s Robotaxi fleet could expand from “tiny to gigantic” within a short time frame, possibly making a material financial impact to the company by late 2026. The firm views Tesla’s vision-based approach to autonomy as central to this long-term growth, suggesting that continued advancements could unlock new revenue streams across both consumer and mobility sectors.

https://twitter.com/AIStockSavvy/status/1975893527344345556

Tesla’s FSD goals still ambitious

While Stifel’s tone remains optimistic, the firm’s analysts acknowledged that Tesla’s aggressive autonomy timeline may face execution challenges. The note described the 2025 unsupervised FSD target as “a stretch,” though still achievable in the medium term.

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“We believe Tesla is making progress with modest advancements in its Robotaxi network and FSD. The company has high expectations for its camera-based approach including; 1) Unsupervised FSD to be available for personal use in the United States by year-end 2025, which appears to be a stretch but seems more likely in the medium term; 2) that it will ‘probably have ride hailing in probably half of the populations of the U.S. by the end of the year’,” the firm noted.

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Cantor Fitzgerald reaffirms bullish view on Tesla after record Q3 deliveries

The firm reiterated its Overweight rating and $355 price target.

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(Credit: Tesla)

Cantor Fitzgerald is maintaining its bullish outlook on Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) following the company’s record-breaking third quarter of 2025. 

The firm reiterated its Overweight rating and $355 price target, citing strong delivery results driven by a rush of consumer purchases ahead of the end of the federal tax credit on September 30.

On Tesla’s vehicle deliveries in Q3 2025

During the third quarter of 2025, Tesla delivered a total of 497,099 vehicles, significantly beating analyst expectations of 443,079 vehicles. As per Cantor Fitzgerald, this was likely affected by customers rushing at the end of Q3 to purchase an EV due to the end of the federal tax credit, as noted in an Investing.com report. 

“On 10/2, TSLA pre-announced that it delivered 497,099 vehicles in 3Q25 (its highest quarterly delivery in company history), significantly above Company consensus of 443,079, and above 384,122 in 2Q25. This was due primarily to a ‘push forward effect’ from consumers who rushed to purchase or lease EVs ahead of the $7,500 EV tax credit expiring on 9/30,” the firm wrote in its note.

A bright spot in Tesla Energy

Cantor Fitzgerald also highlighted that while Tesla’s full-year production and deliveries would likely fall short of 2024’s 1.8 million total, Tesla’s energy storage business remains a bright spot in the company’s results.

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“Tesla also announced that it had deployed 12.5 GWh of energy storage products in 3Q25, its highest in company history vs. our estimate/Visible Alpha consensus of 11.5/10.9 GWh (and vs. ~6.9 GWh in 3Q24). Tesla’s Energy Storage has now deployed more products YTD than all of last year, which is encouraging. We expect Energy Storage revenue to surpass $12B this year, and to account for ~15% of total revenue,” the firm stated. 

Tesla’s strong Q3 results have helped lift its market capitalization to $1.47 trillion as of writing. The company also teased a new product reveal on X set for October 7, which the firm stated could serve as another near-term catalyst.

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Investor's Corner

Tesla just got a weird price target boost from a notable bear

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Credit: Tesla Manufacturing

Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) just got a weird price target boost from a notable bear just a day after it announced its strongest quarter in terms of vehicle deliveries and energy deployments.

JPMorgan raised its price target on Tesla shares from $115 to $150. It maintained its ‘Underweight’ rating on the stock.

Despite Tesla reporting 497,099 deliveries, about 12 percent above the 443,000 anticipated from the consensus, JPMorgan is still skeptical that the company can keep up its momentum, stating most of its Q3 strength came from leaning on the removal of the $7,500 EV tax credit, which expired on September 30.

Tesla hits record vehicle deliveries and energy deployments in Q3 2025

The firm said Tesla benefited from a “temporary stronger-than-expected industry-wide pull-forward” as the tax credit expired. It is no secret that consumers flocked to the company this past quarter to take advantage of the credit.

The bump will need to be solidified as the start of a continuing trend of strong vehicle deliveries, the firm said in a note to investors. Analysts said that one quarter of strength was “too soon to declare Tesla as having sustainably returned to growth in its core business.”

JPMorgan does not anticipate Tesla having strong showings with vehicle deliveries after Q4.

There are two distinct things that stick out with this note: the first is the lack of recognition of other parts of Tesla’s business, and the confusion that surrounds future quarters.

JPMorgan did not identify Tesla’s strength in autonomy, energy storage, or robotics, with autonomy and robotics being the main focuses of the company’s future. Tesla’s Full Self-Driving and Robotaxi efforts are incredibly relevant and drive more impact moving forward than vehicle deliveries.

Additionally, the confusion surrounding future delivery numbers in quarters past Q3 is evident.

Will Tesla thrive without the EV tax credit? Five reasons why they might

Tesla will receive some assistance from deliveries of vehicles that will reach customers in Q4, but will still qualify for the credit under the IRS’s revised rules. It will also likely introduce an affordable model this quarter, which should have a drastic impact on deliveries depending on pricing.

Tesla shares are trading at $422.40 at 2:35 p.m. on the East Coast.

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