News
Tesla factory delays show ‘how we stand in our own way’: German industry experts sound off
Water pumping approvals. Bats in trees. An empty tank. These are just a few things that have stopped Tesla’s progress in Germany as it attempts to launch its first electric vehicle manufacturing facility in Europe. It has been a long and trying road for the electric automaker, which has attempted to surf through the waves of German bureaucratic red tape since early 2020. After another delay in the approval process, which has expected production start dates ranging across three quarters, industry experts challenge Germany’s reputation as a place for companies to conduct business.
“Tesla shows the world how we stand in our own way,” Ferdinand Dudenhöffer, Director of the Center of Automotive Research, said. While Dudenhöffer does agree that Tesla should have treaded more carefully during the approval of a battery production facility and been smarter regarding document submissions, the industry expert believes that German red tape has mainly told a story of how hard it is to get things started if you are planning to open a business in the country. “But such hurricanes of resistance show how little sustainable Germany is,” he said in an interview with Handelsblatt.
Coverage of the Gigafactory Berlin project has spanned over two years for journalists in the sector, including myself. Musk announced that Tesla would bring a production facility to Germany in late 2019 while accepting an automotive industry reward. The project began just months later, in the early days of January 2020. More than two years later, a factory, a parage, a carnival, and a lot of speculation regarding when Tesla will finally receive the green light still exist. Earlier this week, German media reported that Tesla would likely not receive permission to begin production and deliveries until mid-March “at the earliest.” It is a far cry from the Summer 2021 start dates that many close to the project anticipated.
The delays are starting to worry those who see Germany as a potential leader in the future automotive industry, which over the past ten years has changed more than it did in the previous ninety. Car companies are not just about making cars anymore. They’re relatively closer to tech companies than anything due to the advancements in software and the widespread focus on developing autonomous driving platforms. Regardless of what a company brings to the table, they will likely have to encounter some major pushback and delays in their project. Even EV leader Tesla is having problems. Dudenhöffer wonders which companies are observing the red tape and the pushback, thinking that other options may be better.
Giga Berlin’s new graffiti panels as of early February 2022. (Credit: @Gf4Tesla/Twitter)
It isn’t just companies, either. Dudenhöffer says that the renewal of motorway bridges can take years or even decades to be rebuilt completely due to new approval procedures. It is not about getting things done quickly, it seems.
When things as simple as bridge repairs are taking over ten years to complete, there has to be an indication that the processes for planning and approval need to be revised. That is what Chief Executive Holder Loesch said, who encouraged the agencies responsible for approving projects to take a look at refining the approval steps. Loesch, whose association is overseeing the installation of wind turbines and industrial plants to double by 2030, says that his plans will include the submission of around 20,000 permits during the course of action. “This mammoth task can only be mastered with a comprehensive reform of planning and approvals that includes processes for industrial plant structures,” he said.
Even Brandenburg Economics Minister Jörg Steinbach submitted ideas to help expedite potential approvals. Driven by the lagging approval process in the Tesla project, Steinbach said that “It should be possible to make changes to the building plan in the ongoing approval process without the process having to be completely restarted.”
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Investor's Corner
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) received fresh support from Piper Sandler this week after analysts toured the Fremont Factory and tested the company’s latest Full Self-Driving software. The firm reaffirmed its $500 price target, stating that FSD V14 delivered a notably smooth robotaxi demonstration and may already perform at levels comparable to, if not better than, average human drivers.
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Analysts highlight autonomy progress
During more than 75 minutes of focused discussions, analysts reportedly focused on FSD v14’s updates. Piper Sandler’s team pointed to meaningful strides in perception, object handling, and overall ride smoothness during the robotaxi demo.
The visit also included discussions on updates to Tesla’s in-house chip initiatives, its Optimus program, and the growth of the company’s battery storage business. Analysts noted that Tesla continues refining cost structures and capital expenditure expectations, which are key elements in future margin recovery, as noted in a Yahoo Finance report.
Analyst Alexander Potter noted that “we think FSD is a truly impressive product that is (probably) already better at driving than the average American.” This conclusion was strengthened by what he described as a “flawless robotaxi ride to the hotel.”
Street targets diverge on TSLA
While Piper Sandler stands by its $500 target, it is not the highest estimate on the Street. Wedbush, for one, has a $600 per share price target for TSLA stock.
Other institutions have also weighed in on TSLA stock as of late. HSBC reiterated a Reduce rating with a $131 target, citing a gap between earnings fundamentals and the company’s market value. By contrast, TD Cowen maintained a Buy rating and a $509 target, pointing to strong autonomous driving demonstrations in Austin and the pace of software-driven improvements.
Stifel analysts also lifted their price target for Tesla to $508 per share over the company’s ongoing robotaxi and FSD programs.
Elon Musk
SpaceX Starship Version 3 booster crumples in early testing
Photos of the incident’s aftermath suggest that Booster 18 will likely be retired.
SpaceX’s new Starship first-stage booster, Booster 18, suffered major damage early Friday during its first round of testing in Starbase, Texas, just one day after rolling out of the factory.
Based on videos of the incident, the lower section of the rocket booster appeared to crumple during a pressurization test. Photos of the incident’s aftermath suggest that Booster 18 will likely be retired.
Booster test failure
SpaceX began structural and propellant-system verification tests on Booster 18 Thursday night at the Massey’s Test Site, only a few miles from Starbase’s production facilities, as noted in an Ars Technica report. At 4:04 a.m. CT on Friday, a livestream from LabPadre Space captured the booster’s lower half experiencing a sudden destructive event around its liquid oxygen tank section. Post-incident images, shared on X by @StarshipGazer, showed notable deformation in the booster’s lower structure.
Neither SpaceX nor Elon Musk had commented as of Friday morning, but the vehicle’s condition suggests it is likely a complete loss. This is quite unfortunate, as Booster 18 is already part of the Starship V3 program, which includes design fixes and upgrades intended to improve reliability. While SpaceX maintains a rather rapid Starship production line in Starbase, Booster 18 was generally expected to validate the improvements implemented in the V3 program.
Tight deadlines
SpaceX needs Starship boosters and upper stages to begin demonstrating rapid reuse, tower catches, and early operational Starlink missions over the next two years. More critically, NASA’s Artemis program depends on an on-orbit refueling test in the second half of 2026, a requirement for the vehicle’s expected crewed lunar landing around 2028.
While SpaceX is known for diagnosing failures quickly and returning to testing at unmatched speed, losing the newest-generation booster at the very start of its campaign highlights the immense challenge involved in scaling Starship into a reliable, high-cadence launch system. SpaceX, however, is known for getting things done quickly, so it would not be a surprise if the company manages to figure out what happened to Booster 18 in the near future.
News
Tesla FSD (Supervised) is about to go on “widespread” release
In a comment last October, Elon Musk stated that FSD V14.2 is “for widespread use.”
Tesla has begun rolling out Full Self-Driving (Supervised) V14.2, and with this, the wide release of the system could very well begin.
The update introduces a new high-resolution vision encoder, expanded emergency-vehicle handling, smarter routing, new parking options, and more refined driving behavior, among other improvements.
FSD V14.2 improvements
FSD (Supervised) V14.2’s release notes highlight a fully upgraded neural-network vision encoder capable of reading higher-resolution features, giving the system improved awareness of emergency vehicles, road obstacles, and even human gestures. Tesla also expanded its emergency-vehicle protocols, adding controlled pull-overs and yielding behavior for police cars, fire trucks, and ambulances, among others.
A deeper integration of navigation and routing into the vision network now allows the system to respond to blocked roads or detours in real time. The update also enhances decision-making in several complex scenarios, including unprotected turns, lane changes, vehicle cut-ins, and interactions with school buses. All in all, these improvements should help FSD (Supervised) V14.2 perform in a very smooth and comfortable manner.
Elon Musk’s predicted wide release
The significance of V14.2 grows when paired with Elon Musk’s comments from October. While responding to FSD tester AI DRIVR, who praised V14.1.2 for fixing “95% of indecisive lane changes and braking” and who noted that it was time for FSD to go on wide release, Musk stated that “14.2 for widespread use.”
FSD V14 has so far received a substantial amount of positive reviews from Tesla owners, many of whom have stated that the system now drives better than some human drivers as it is confident, cautious, and considerate at the same time. With V14.2 now rolling out, it remains to be seen if the update also makes it to the company’s wide FSD fleet, which is still populated by a large number of HW3 vehicles.
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
SpaceX Starship Version 3 booster crumples in early testing
