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Tesla’s sole ownership of Giga Shanghai is a silver bullet amid China’s anti-combustion engine initiative
It may seem almost unremarkable today, but the fact that Tesla holds sole ownership of Gigafactory Shanghai is nothing to scoff at. This is especially notable as China implements a strong push against the internal combustion engine, as highlighted by the country’s new rules that make it extremely difficult to establish a factory producing gas-powered cars starting 2021.
In September 2019, a top Chinese industry official announced during an automobile conference that the country was planning on phasing out fossil fuel-powered vehicles. Few details were shared during the time, but recent updates from China show just how serious the initiative would be.
At a press conference on Tuesday, the National Development and Reform Commission, the country’s top economic planner, noted that China will no longer allow new companies that make fossil fuel-powered vehicles to be set up in the country. The new rules, which were published last week, came after the commission announced notable changes to China’s auto industry investment policies earlier this year.
China has taken a very supportive stance for its new energy vehicle segment, which comprises battery-electric, hybrid, and fuel-cell cars. Currently, the country stands as the world’s largest market for electric vehicles, and it has implemented programs that are aimed at discouraging car buyers from purchasing fossil fuel-burning cars. Among these are restrictions for ICE cars in cities to notable subsidies for new energy vehicles.
With China’s updated rules in place, even existing carmakers that have already established a presence in the country will find it difficult to expand their manufacturing operations for gas-powered cars. If an automaker wishes to establish an ICE vehicle factory, the company would have to meet several strict requirements.
These include proving that their manufacturing efficiencies are higher than the industry average. Companies that produce ICE cars must also make more new energy vehicles than the industry average. Automakers must spend at least 3% of their revenue on NEV research and development as well, among other requirements.
China’s update sets the bar for carmakers so high that only a few companies are expected to meet it, such as Geely and SAIC, an automaker that is state-owned and based in Shanghai. Both companies currently stand among China’s top automakers, as per data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, an organization that is affiliated with the government.
Amidst these developments, Tesla’s Gigafactory Shanghai could effectively ramp without being weighed down by restrictions from the Chinese government. Tesla’s sole ownership of the expansive facility also means that the electric car maker will stand to benefit immensely from the facility’s expansion and growth. This could be a massive edge or even a silver bullet of sorts for Tesla next year when the Made-in-China Model Y begins its rollout.
Tesla may only be an emerging carmaker in China today, but the company has received some notable support from the government over the years. Prior to Gigafactory Shanghai’s groundbreaking event, Tesla was able to secure low-interest loans from local banks without any issues. The bidding process for the land where the China-based factory also proved smooth for Tesla, with the electric car maker strangely being the only company that placed a bid for the site.
Open support for Tesla was also shown by high-ranking government officials such as Chinese Premier Li Keqiang, who personally hosted CEO Elon Musk in the Tower of Violet Light, a site usually reserved for foreign dignitaries, following Gigafactory Shanghai’s groundbreaking ceremony. During their meeting, Li proved optimistic about Tesla’s future in China, at one point even offering Musk a “Chinese Green Card” so that he could pursue his projects in the country.
Elon Musk
Tesla needs to come through on this one Robotaxi metric, analyst says
“We think the key focus from here will be how fast Tesla can scale driverless operations (including if Tesla’s approach to software/hardware allows it to scale significantly faster than competitors, as the company has argued), and on profitability.”
Tesla needs to come through on this one Robotaxi metric, Mark Delaney of Goldman Sachs says.
Tesla is in the process of rolling out its Robotaxi platform to areas outside of Austin and the California Bay Area. It has plans to launch in five additional cities, including Houston, Dallas, Miami, Las Vegas, and Phoenix.
However, the company’s expansion is not what the focus needs to be, according to Delaney. It’s the speed of deployment.
The analyst said:
“We think the key focus from here will be how fast Tesla can scale driverless operations (including if Tesla’s approach to software/hardware allows it to scale significantly faster than competitors, as the company has argued), and on profitability.”
Profitability will come as the Robotaxi fleet expands. Making that money will be dependent on when Tesla can initiate rides in more areas, giving more customers access to the program.
There are some additional things that the company needs to make happen ahead of the major Robotaxi expansion, one of those things is launching driverless rides in Austin, the first city in which it launched the program.
This week, Tesla started testing driverless Robotaxi rides in Austin, as two different Model Y units were spotted with no occupants, a huge step in the company’s plans for the ride-sharing platform.
Tesla Robotaxi goes driverless as Musk confirms Safety Monitor removal testing
CEO Elon Musk has been hoping to remove Safety Monitors from Robotaxis in Austin for several months, first mentioning the plan to have them out by the end of 2025 in September. He confirmed on Sunday that Tesla had officially removed vehicle occupants and started testing truly unsupervised rides.
Although Safety Monitors in Austin have been sitting in the passenger’s seat, they have still had the ability to override things in case of an emergency. After all, the ultimate goal was safety and avoiding any accidents or injuries.
Goldman Sachs reiterated its ‘Neutral’ rating and its $400 price target. Delaney said, “Tesla is making progress with its autonomous technology,” and recent developments make it evident that this is true.
Investor's Corner
Tesla gets bold Robotaxi prediction from Wall Street firm
Last week, Andrew Percoco took over Tesla analysis for Morgan Stanley from Adam Jonas, who covered the stock for years. Percoco seems to be less optimistic and bullish on Tesla shares, while still being fair and balanced in his analysis.
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) received a bold Robotaxi prediction from Morgan Stanley, which anticipates a dramatic increase in the size of the company’s autonomous ride-hailing suite in the coming years.
Last week, Andrew Percoco took over Tesla analysis for Morgan Stanley from Adam Jonas, who covered the stock for years. Percoco seems to be less optimistic and bullish on Tesla shares, while still being fair and balanced in his analysis.
Percoco dug into the Robotaxi fleet and its expansion in the coming years in his latest note, released on Tuesday. The firm expects Tesla to increase the Robotaxi fleet size to 1,000 vehicles in 2026. However, that’s small-scale compared to what they expect from Tesla in a decade.
Tesla expands Robotaxi app access once again, this time on a global scale
By 2035, Morgan Stanley believes there will be one million Robotaxis on the road across multiple cities, a major jump and a considerable fleet size. We assume this means the fleet of vehicles Tesla will operate internally, and not including passenger-owned vehicles that could be added through software updates.
He also listed three specific catalysts that investors should pay attention to, as these will represent the company being on track to achieve its Robotaxi dreams:
- Opening Robotaxi to the public without a Safety Monitor. Timing is unclear, but it appears that Tesla is getting closer by the day.
- Improvement in safety metrics without the Safety Monitor. Tesla’s ability to improve its safety metrics as it scales miles driven without the Safety Monitor is imperative as it looks to scale in new states and cities in 2026.
- Cybercab start of production, targeted for April 2026. Tesla’s Cybercab is a purpose-built vehicle (no steering wheel or pedals, only two seats) that is expected to be produced through its state-of-the-art unboxed manufacturing process, offering further cost reductions and thus accelerating adoption over time.
Robotaxi stands to be one of Tesla’s most significant revenue contributors, especially as the company plans to continue expanding its ride-hailing service across the world in the coming years.
Its current deployment strategy is controlled and conservative to avoid any drastic and potentially program-ruining incidents.
So far, the program, which is active in Austin and the California Bay Area, has been widely successful.
News
Tesla Model Y L is gaining momentum in China’s premium segment
This suggests that the addition of the Model Y L to Tesla China’s lineup will not result in a case of cannibalization, but a possible case of “premiumization” instead.
Tesla’s domestic sales in China held steady in November with around 73,000 units delivered, but a closer look at the Model Y L’s numbers hints at an emerging shift towards pricier variants that could very well be boosting average selling prices and margins.
This suggests that the addition of the Model Y L to Tesla China’s lineup will not result in a case of cannibalization, but a possible case of “premiumization” instead.
Tesla China’s November domestic numbers
Data from the a Passenger Car Association (CPCA) indicated that Tesla China saw domestic deliveries of about 73,000 vehicles in November 2025. This number included 34,000 standard Model Y units, 26,000 Model 3 units, and 13,000 Model Y L units, as per industry watchers.
This means that the Model Y L accounted for roughly 27% of Tesla China’s total Model Y sales, despite the variant carrying a ~28% premium over the base RWD Model Y that is estimated to have dominated last year’s mix.
As per industry watcher @TSLAFanMtl, this suggests that Tesla China’s sales have moved towards more premium variants this year. Thus, direct year-over-year sales comparisons might miss the bigger picture. This is true even for the regular Model Y, as another premium trim, the Long Range RWD variant, was also added to the lineup this 2025.
November 2025 momentum
While Tesla China’s overall sales this year have seen challenges, the Model Y and Model 3 have remained strong sellers in the country. This is especially impressive as the Model Y and Model 3 are premium-priced vehicles, and they compete in the world’s most competitive electric vehicle market. Tesla China is also yet to roll out the latest capabilities of FSD in China, which means that its vehicles in the country could not tap into their latest capabilities yet.
Aggregated results from November suggest that the Tesla Model Y took the crown as China’s #1 best-selling SUV during the month, with roughly 34,000 deliveries. With the Model Y L, this number is even higher. The Tesla Model 3 also had a stellar month, seeing 25,700 deliveries during November 2025.
Tesla needs to come through on this one Robotaxi metric, analyst says
Tesla gets bold Robotaxi prediction from Wall Street firm
