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Elon Musk’s Tesla insurance plans could ultimately prove Warren Buffett wrong

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During Tesla’s first-quarter earnings call, Elon Musk mentioned that the electric car maker is coming up with an insurance service for its vehicles. Musk noted that Tesla’s insurance plan would be unique in a way that it will leverage customer data collected from its fleet of vehicles. This will, according to the CEO, create a program that is “much more compelling than anything else” in the market.

Such statements sound very optimistic, and in true Elon Musk fashion, the CEO raised the bar for the upcoming service higher, adding that Tesla’s insurance program could see a launch as early as next month. These targets were unsurprisingly met with much skepticism. Tesla’s avid critics dismissed the plan and Musk’s comments as another “funding secured” moment, and even experienced investors expressed their doubts about the program’s potential success.

Doubts from the Oracle

Arguably the most notable critic of Tesla’s insurance plan is financial titan Warren Buffett, CEO of Berkshire Hathaway. Speaking at the Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting on Saturday, Buffett noted that Elon Musk’s insurance aspirations would likely fail. “It’s not an easy business. The success of the auto companies getting into the insurance business is probably as likely as the success of the insurance companies getting into the auto business,” he said.

The financial titan explained further, stating that veteran automaker General Motors had unsuccessfully attempted a similar program in the past under its Motors Insurance Company. Though Buffett, fondly known in the investment world as the “Oracle from Omaha,” admitted that the trove of data that Tesla gathers from its fleet, he argued that the electric car maker would likely not make money in its insurance endeavors.

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“And I would bet against any company in the auto business (getting into insurance) being any kind of an unusual success. The idea of using telematics in terms of studying people — it is important to have data on how people drive, how hard they brake, how much they swerve, all kinds of things. So I don’t doubt the value of the data. But I don’t think the auto companies will have any advantage to that. I don’t think they’ll make money in the insurance business,” Buffett explained.

A case for Tesla’s insurance plans

Buffett holds a lot of authority in the insurance industry, with Berkshire having Geico and General Reinsurance among its numerous subsidiaries. Yet, despite these concerns, Elon Musk’s plan for Tesla’s own insurance program could actually work. Contrary to speculations from the company’s critics suggesting that Musk is merely shooting from the hip, Tesla is actually working with experienced insurance firms to develop its own program. Among these is Markel Corporation (ironically dubbed at times as a “mini-Berkshire” stock). During the firm’s quarterly conference call last week, co-CEO Richard Whitt stated that one of Markel’s subsidiaries, State National, will provide the fronting for Tesla’s insurance.

“Often the people that have these innovative ideas have a hard time navigating the regulatory environment and being able to execute quite honestly on their innovative ideas. That’s where State National can come to the table and help them. In the case of the partnership with Tesla, State National is providing just that. They’re supporting innovative solutions that Tesla has [created] with risk-taking partners. And I don’t want to say any more than that, because obviously Tesla and the risk-taking partner have many things they probably want to say about the arrangement,” Whitt said.

Another advantage that Tesla might have with its upcoming program is that Elon Musk’s primary goal is likely not to “make money in the insurance business” in the near-term. Instead of chasing profits immediately after its rollout, Tesla’s insurance could simply be rolled out as a means to streamline the ownership experience of the company’s electric cars further. Together with several inherent advantages of the company’s vehicles, such as the absence of fuel purchases, affordable Supercharging rates, and unique driving dynamics offered by their all-electric powertrain, having a customized, worry-free insurance service could be yet another factor that can make Teslas attractive to car buyers.

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A lot of the details surrounding Tesla’s insurance plans are yet to be announced, and it remains to be seen if the company could ultimately pull off an endeavor that could prove the world’s third-richest person wrong. Ultimately, just as it was far too early to discount SpaceX after the initial failures of the Falcon 1 rocket, it might simply be far too early to dismiss Elon Musk’s plans for Tesla’s own insurance program.

Simon is an experienced automotive reporter with a passion for electric cars and clean energy. Fascinated by the world envisioned by Elon Musk, he hopes to make it to Mars (at least as a tourist) someday. For stories or tips--or even to just say a simple hello--send a message to his email, simon@teslarati.com or his handle on X, @ResidentSponge.

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Investor's Corner

Tesla has its answer to auto growth, it just has to bring it to the U.S.: analyst

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Credit: Tesla China

Tesla has its answer to grow its automotive sales over the next few years, TD Cowen analyst Itay Michaeli says, but it just has to bring it to the U.S.

On Thursday, Michaeli reiterated his $490 price target and the ‘Buy’ rating he already held on Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA). However, its automotive division has struggled to show sequential growth over the past few years, mostly due to its focus on AI and Full Self-Driving. Tesla already axed two of its lower-volume vehicles with the Model S and Model X earlier this year.

However, Tesla does not need to engineer an entire new vehicle to trigger an upward tick in sales; it just has to bring it from China to the U.S., Michaeli said.

He is talking about the Model Y L, a slightly larger version of the all-electric crossover that is already available in China. U.S. customers have been pleading with CEO Elon Musk to bring it to the country since its launch in Asia last year, but he’s not convinced of it because of the advent of self-driving and its importance in this particular market.

The problem is that Tesla owners have been requesting something larger that could fit a typical American family. The Model Y L is slightly larger than the standard Model Y, but some are concerned that it could still be too small to fit what most people might need.

Instead, they have asked for a full-size SUV from Tesla.

Tesla gives big hint that it will build Cyber SUV, smaller Cybertruck

Nevertheless, the Model Y L still presents a great opportunity for Tesla in the U.S., and Michaeli says that there is an additional sales opportunity of about 100,000 units, with demand potential falling somewhere between 60,000 and 135,000 units.

TD Cowen’s note to investors also analyzed that Tesla’s growth could come from a stock perspective as well, positively impacting the stock price, as it has been widely reliant on vehicle sales, even though Tesla has truly phased itself away from that being an important metric.

Tesla stands to gain greatly from the introduction of the Model Y L in the U.S., but only if Elon Musk sees it as a viable fit for the market. Families may need to see Tesla bring something larger to the U.S., or they might be forced to buy from another automaker that offers something that fits is needs for more interior space to haul around the kids.

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Elon Musk

SpaceXAI just launched into your kitchen with their new app

SpaceXAI just powered its first consumer app and it predicts what you want to buy.

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SpaceXAI just made its first move into consumer AI, and it involves your grocery cart. On June 3, 2026, Gopuff and SpaceXAI announced the launch of Go, a Grok-powered shopping assistant built directly into the Gopuff app that predicts what you need before you even start searching for it.

Gopuff is an instant delivery platform that operates more than 400 micro-fulfillment centers across the U.S., delivering everyday essentials, snacks, drinks, and household items in as little as 15 minutes. It is not a restaurant delivery app or a marketplace. It owns its inventory, controls its warehouses, and handles its own logistics, which means it has built one of the most detailed consumer behavior datasets in retail over its 13-year history.

Go combines SpaceXAI’s advanced reasoning, voice, and image generation models with Gopuff’s dataset of hundreds of millions of orders and real-time cultural signals from X to prepare a suggested cart the moment a customer opens the app. It learns each shopper’s habits and automatically builds a personalized cart based on time of day, location, order history, and real-time indicators. Returning customers can check out with a single tap.


Rather than searching for specific items, users can describe a situation like a game-day party or the desire for a healthy breakfast and Go will assemble a cart automatically. It can also predict when shoppers are running low on items like coffee or paper towels and have them packed and delivered in under 15 minutes. Grok voice integration lets users talk to the app in plain conversational language and check out completely hands-free.

Gopuff co-founder and co-CEO Yakir Gola said: “Today, we believe the greatest friction left in commerce is not delivery or instantaneous access to the essentials customers need. It’s the moment before: the thinking, the deciding, the remembering. We’re combining Gopuff’s demand intelligence with xAI’s frontier reasoning to create an everyday shopping experience that feels like a true extension of you.”

Why SpaceX just made a $60 billion bet on AI coding ahead of historic IPO

The timing carries context beyond the product launch. SpaceXAI was formed after SpaceX completed an all-stock merger with Elon Musk’s xAI earlier this year, folding one of the most advanced AI labs in the world into the same corporate structure as the company preparing what could be the largest IPO in history. SpaceXAI is dipping into consumer-focused AI just as it prepares for its public debut, and while Musk has openly discussed building an everything app, this launch uses Grok to power another company’s product rather than launching a standalone consumer platform. Every consumer-facing deployment of Grok ahead of the IPO roadshow adds tangible evidence that SpaceXAI is not just an infrastructure play but a direct competitor in the AI application layer where OpenAI and Google are already fighting for dominance.

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Elon Musk

SpaceX’s amended S-1 is sparking a major Tesla merger conversation

A single line in SpaceX’s amended S-1 just sent Tesla stock down 5% in one day.

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A single line buried in SpaceX’s amended S-1 filing is doing more to move Tesla’s stock price than anything Tesla itself has announced in months. The clause, disclosed as SpaceX prepares for what could be the largest IPO in Wall Street history, states that the company “may issue a significant amount of equity in connection with future transactions.” While this may be seen as boilerplate language in S-1 filings, the historical ties between SpaceX and Tesla, and with Elon Musk reportedly discussing a possible merger with close colleagues, investors are interpreting it as something closer to a signal.

The concern among institutional investors like Gary Black, managing director of The Future Fund, pointed directly to the amended filing on X, saying it “strongly suggests more SPCX equity will be issued,” which could potentially be used to acquire Tesla. He estimated such a deal could be 28% dilutive to Tesla shareholders since SpaceX would likely command a significantly higher valuation multiple. Black added that institutional investors he knows hate the idea of a combination because they prefer pure plays over conglomerates, which he said “nearly always gravitate to the lowest common multiple.”

The Tesla and SpaceX merger everyone is talking about is quietly building

The bull case runs the math differently. Tesla influencer and retail shareholder advocate AleXandra Merz pushed back on what she called a widespread misunderstanding of how merger-of-equals deals actually work. Rather than simply splitting the difference between two market caps, a merger exchange ratio is negotiated based on relative fair market values, meaning the lower valued company typically sees its stock reprice upward toward the deal value.

Under her model, SpaceX enters at a $2.5 trillion valuation and Tesla at $1.6 trillion, producing a combined entity worth $4.1 trillion split evenly between both shareholder groups. That implies Tesla’s side of the deal would be valued at $2.05 trillion, a gain of roughly $450 billion from its current market cap. She cited Dow-DuPont and CBS-Viacom as historical examples of how markets reprice both companies toward the announced exchange ratio after a deal is unveiled.


The SpaceX S-1 amendments also revealed just how much financial infrastructure already binds the two companies together. As Teslarati has reported, SpaceX purchased $697 million in Tesla Megapacks, $131 million in Cybertrucks, and the two companies have shared supply chain resources, and semiconductor fabrication plans since well before any merger conversation became public. A retail poll by Tesla influencer Sawyer Merritt is finding that 36% of respondents do not plan to buy SpaceX shares at IPO and 15.3% saying their decision depends on the valuation.


Whether the merger happens or not, the amended filing is seemingly moving markets and sharpened a debate that is no longer theoretical. SpaceX is weeks away from trading publicly, and Tesla shareholders are now watching every word of every filing for clues about what Musk plans to do next.

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