Investor's Corner
Tesla Model 3 Mid Range RWD deliveries are starting earlier than expected
Tesla appears to be learning the art of under-promising and over-delivering. When Tesla announced the Mid Range Model 3, the company noted that deliveries of the vehicle would likely begin within 6-10 weeks. If recent reports from the Tesla community are any indication, though, it appears that deliveries for the Mid Range Model 3 have already begun, less than two weeks since the vehicle was initially launched.
In a recent post, Tesla Motors Club member ivan801 noted that he had taken delivery of his Mid Range Model 3. Based on images shared by the Model 3 owner, his vehicle was a solid black variant with black interior and 18″ Aero Wheels. The vehicle’s VIN was also in the 150k-range, suggesting that Tesla registered the electric car on October. The past month, after all, saw Tesla register more than 61,000 new Model 3 VINs, starting the month with numbers in the 118k-range and ending the month with the highest VINs at the 179k-range.
Apart from the TMC member’s post, a video of a Model 3 accelerating on a freeway on-ramp was recently uploaded on YouTube as well. The video’s owner dubbed the vehicle as the “economy” variant of the Model 3 in the clip’s description, though in later comments, the uploader remarked that the vehicle was a Mid Range Model 3. The short clip featured the vehicle accelerating from a sub-20 mph rolling start, and based on the video; it appears that even Tesla’s “slowest” vehicle to date is still pretty quick on its feet.
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- A Mid Range Tesla Model 3 RWD. [Credit: ivan801/Tesla Motors Club]
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- A Mid Range Tesla Model 3 RWD. [Credit: ivan801/Tesla Motors Club]
A Mid Range Model 3 has been delivered to a reservation holder. [Credit: ivan801/Tesla Motors Club]
In the days prior to the car’s announcement, Elon Musk began teasing the arrival of a “lemur” on Twitter. On October 18, Tesla released the Mid Range Model 3, a lower-cost version of its electric sedan that initially cost $45,000 before incentives. Neither Tesla nor Elon Musk announced the reasons behind the “lemur” references, though the little primate’s name could be a clever play on the vehicle’s LEMR variation (Limited Edition Mid Range, perhaps?).
-->While the price of the Mid Range Model 3 was adjusted to $46,000 not long after the vehicle was released, the new variant does offer budget-conscious reservation holders the opportunity to join the Tesla ecosystem at a time when the full $7,500 federal tax credit is still in effect. Earlier this year, Tesla sold its 200,000th electric car in the United States, triggering a phase-out period for its vehicles’ $7,500 federal tax credit. With the phase-out period in effect, electric cars that will be delivered starting January 1, 2019, would only be eligible for a $3,750 tax credit, 50% less than those who would take delivery before the end of 2018.
A recent email from Tesla to reservation holders noted that deliveries for the Mid Range Model 3 would start in as little as four weeks. According to Tesla’s communication, “current delivery timelines are 4 weeks for the west coast, 6 weeks for central and 8 weeks for the east coast.” The electric car maker further noted that those who can pick up their vehicle directly from the Fremont factory would likely see deliveries in “under four weeks.”
The Mid Range Model 3, at its current price, represents a $3,000 savings from the Long Range RWD variant of the vehicle, which was the first version that Tesla started producing. With the price savings comes a number of compromises in terms of performance, though, as the Mid Range Model 3 features a 260-mile range, a 0-60 mph time of 5.6 seconds, and a top speed of 125 mph. In contrast, the Long Range RWD variant, which started at $49,000 before incentives, has a range of 310 miles per charge, a 0-60 mph time of 5.1 seconds, and a top speed of 140 mph.
Tesla’s deliveries for the Mid Range Model 3 comes amidst Tesla’s improving production ramp for the vehicle. The past quarters have been difficult for the electric car maker, with Elon Musk dubbing the Model 3 ramp as “production hell.” After hitting its goal of producing 5,000 Model 3 per week at the end of the second quarter, though, the winds started to shift for the company. Things continued to improve in the third quarter, with Tesla delivering 55,840 Model 3 from July to September. What’s more, the company also surprised Wall Street by posting $6.8 billion in revenue and beating earnings estimates with a GAAP profit of $312 million.
With large numbers of Mid Range Model 3 expected to be delivered in the fourth quarter, and with upgrades from Panasonic and Grohmann expected to be installed in Gigafactory sometime in Q4, the current quarter might very well become Tesla’s most impressive yet.
Watch a Mid Range Model 3 accelerate on a highway on-ramp in the video below.
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Investor's Corner
Mizuho keeps Tesla (TSLA) “Outperform” rating but lowers price target
As per the Mizuho analyst, upcoming changes to EV incentives in the U.S. and China could affect Tesla’s unit growth more than previously expected.
Mizuho analyst Vijay Rakesh lowered Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) price target to $475 from $485, citing potential 2026 EV subsidy cuts in the U.S. and China that could pressure deliveries. The firm maintained its Outperform rating for the electric vehicle maker, however.
As per the Mizuho analyst, upcoming changes to EV incentives in the U.S. and China could affect Tesla’s unit growth more than previously expected. The U.S. accounted for roughly 37% of Tesla’s third-quarter 2025 sales, while China represented about 34%, making both markets highly sensitive to policy shifts. Potential 50% cuts to Chinese subsidies and reduced U.S. incentives affected the firm’s outlook.
With those pressures factored in, the firm now expects Tesla to deliver 1.75 million vehicles in 2026 and 2 million in 2027, slightly below consensus estimates of 1.82 million and 2.15 million, respectively. The analyst was cautiously optimistic, as near-term pressure from subsidies is there, but the company’s long-term tech roadmap remains very compelling.
Despite the revised target, Mizuho remained optimistic on Tesla’s long-term technology roadmap. The firm highlighted three major growth drivers into 2027: the broader adoption of Full Self-Driving V14, the expansion of Tesla’s Robotaxi service, and the commercialization of Optimus, the company’s humanoid robot.
“We are lowering TSLA Ests/PT to $475 with Potential BEV headwinds in 2026E. We believe into 2026E, US (~37% of TSLA 3Q25 sales) EV subsidy cuts and China (34% of TSLA 3Q25 sales) potential 50% EV subsidy cuts could be a headwind to EV deliveries.
-->“We are now estimating TSLA deliveries for 2026/27E at 1.75M/2.00M (slightly below cons. 1.82M/2.15M). We see some LT drivers with FSD v14 adoption for autonomous, robotaxi launches, and humanoid robots into 2027 driving strength,” the analyst noted.
Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) has landed an elusive “must own” status from Wall Street firm Melius, according to a new note released early this week.
Analyst Rob Wertheimer said Tesla will lead the charge in world-changing tech, given the company’s focus on self-driving, autonomy, and Robotaxi. In a note to investors, Wertheimer said “the world is about to change, dramatically,” because of the advent of self-driving cars.
He looks at the industry and sees many potential players, but the firm says there will only be one true winner:
“Our point is not that Tesla is at risk, it’s that everybody else is.”
The major argument is that autonomy is nearing a tipping point where years of chipping away at the software and data needed to develop a sound, safe, and effective form of autonomous driving technology turn into an avalanche of progress.
Wertheimer believes autonomy is a $7 trillion sector,” and in the coming years, investors will see “hundreds of billions in value shift to Tesla.”
A lot of the major growth has to do with the all-too-common “butts in seats” strategy, as Wertheimer believes that only a fraction of people in the United States have ridden in a self-driving car. In Tesla’s regard, only “tens of thousands” have tried Tesla’s latest Full Self-Driving (Supervised) version, which is v14.
Tesla Full Self-Driving v14.2 – Full Review, the Good and the Bad
When it reaches a widespread rollout and more people are able to experience Tesla Full Self-Driving v14, he believes “it will shock most people.”
Citing things like Tesla’s massive data pool from its vehicles, as well as its shift to end-to-end neural nets in 2021 and 2022, as well as the upcoming AI5 chip, which will be put into a handful of vehicles next year, but will reach a wider rollout in 2027, Melius believes many investors are not aware of the pace of advancement in self-driving.
Tesla’s lead in its self-driving efforts is expanding, Wertheimer says. The company is making strategic choices on everything from hardware to software, manufacturing, and overall vehicle design. He says Tesla has left legacy automakers struggling to keep pace as they still rely on outdated architectures and fragmented supplier systems.
Tesla shares are up over 6 percent at 10:40 a.m. on the East Coast, trading at around $416.
Investor's Corner
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) received fresh support from Piper Sandler this week after analysts toured the Fremont Factory and tested the company’s latest Full Self-Driving software. The firm reaffirmed its $500 price target, stating that FSD V14 delivered a notably smooth robotaxi demonstration and may already perform at levels comparable to, if not better than, average human drivers.
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Analysts highlight autonomy progress
During more than 75 minutes of focused discussions, analysts reportedly focused on FSD v14’s updates. Piper Sandler’s team pointed to meaningful strides in perception, object handling, and overall ride smoothness during the robotaxi demo.
The visit also included discussions on updates to Tesla’s in-house chip initiatives, its Optimus program, and the growth of the company’s battery storage business. Analysts noted that Tesla continues refining cost structures and capital expenditure expectations, which are key elements in future margin recovery, as noted in a Yahoo Finance report.
Analyst Alexander Potter noted that “we think FSD is a truly impressive product that is (probably) already better at driving than the average American.” This conclusion was strengthened by what he described as a “flawless robotaxi ride to the hotel.”
-->Street targets diverge on TSLA
While Piper Sandler stands by its $500 target, it is not the highest estimate on the Street. Wedbush, for one, has a $600 per share price target for TSLA stock.
Other institutions have also weighed in on TSLA stock as of late. HSBC reiterated a Reduce rating with a $131 target, citing a gap between earnings fundamentals and the company’s market value. By contrast, TD Cowen maintained a Buy rating and a $509 target, pointing to strong autonomous driving demonstrations in Austin and the pace of software-driven improvements.
Stifel analysts also lifted their price target for Tesla to $508 per share over the company’s ongoing robotaxi and FSD programs.
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