Investor's Corner
Tesla Model 3 Mid Range RWD deliveries are starting earlier than expected
Tesla appears to be learning the art of under-promising and over-delivering. When Tesla announced the Mid Range Model 3, the company noted that deliveries of the vehicle would likely begin within 6-10 weeks. If recent reports from the Tesla community are any indication, though, it appears that deliveries for the Mid Range Model 3 have already begun, less than two weeks since the vehicle was initially launched.
In a recent post, Tesla Motors Club member ivan801 noted that he had taken delivery of his Mid Range Model 3. Based on images shared by the Model 3 owner, his vehicle was a solid black variant with black interior and 18″ Aero Wheels. The vehicle’s VIN was also in the 150k-range, suggesting that Tesla registered the electric car on October. The past month, after all, saw Tesla register more than 61,000 new Model 3 VINs, starting the month with numbers in the 118k-range and ending the month with the highest VINs at the 179k-range.
Apart from the TMC member’s post, a video of a Model 3 accelerating on a freeway on-ramp was recently uploaded on YouTube as well. The video’s owner dubbed the vehicle as the “economy” variant of the Model 3 in the clip’s description, though in later comments, the uploader remarked that the vehicle was a Mid Range Model 3. The short clip featured the vehicle accelerating from a sub-20 mph rolling start, and based on the video; it appears that even Tesla’s “slowest” vehicle to date is still pretty quick on its feet.
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- A Mid Range Tesla Model 3 RWD. [Credit: ivan801/Tesla Motors Club]
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- A Mid Range Tesla Model 3 RWD. [Credit: ivan801/Tesla Motors Club]
A Mid Range Model 3 has been delivered to a reservation holder. [Credit: ivan801/Tesla Motors Club]
In the days prior to the car’s announcement, Elon Musk began teasing the arrival of a “lemur” on Twitter. On October 18, Tesla released the Mid Range Model 3, a lower-cost version of its electric sedan that initially cost $45,000 before incentives. Neither Tesla nor Elon Musk announced the reasons behind the “lemur” references, though the little primate’s name could be a clever play on the vehicle’s LEMR variation (Limited Edition Mid Range, perhaps?).
While the price of the Mid Range Model 3 was adjusted to $46,000 not long after the vehicle was released, the new variant does offer budget-conscious reservation holders the opportunity to join the Tesla ecosystem at a time when the full $7,500 federal tax credit is still in effect. Earlier this year, Tesla sold its 200,000th electric car in the United States, triggering a phase-out period for its vehicles’ $7,500 federal tax credit. With the phase-out period in effect, electric cars that will be delivered starting January 1, 2019, would only be eligible for a $3,750 tax credit, 50% less than those who would take delivery before the end of 2018.
A recent email from Tesla to reservation holders noted that deliveries for the Mid Range Model 3 would start in as little as four weeks. According to Tesla’s communication, “current delivery timelines are 4 weeks for the west coast, 6 weeks for central and 8 weeks for the east coast.” The electric car maker further noted that those who can pick up their vehicle directly from the Fremont factory would likely see deliveries in “under four weeks.”
The Mid Range Model 3, at its current price, represents a $3,000 savings from the Long Range RWD variant of the vehicle, which was the first version that Tesla started producing. With the price savings comes a number of compromises in terms of performance, though, as the Mid Range Model 3 features a 260-mile range, a 0-60 mph time of 5.6 seconds, and a top speed of 125 mph. In contrast, the Long Range RWD variant, which started at $49,000 before incentives, has a range of 310 miles per charge, a 0-60 mph time of 5.1 seconds, and a top speed of 140 mph.
Tesla’s deliveries for the Mid Range Model 3 comes amidst Tesla’s improving production ramp for the vehicle. The past quarters have been difficult for the electric car maker, with Elon Musk dubbing the Model 3 ramp as “production hell.” After hitting its goal of producing 5,000 Model 3 per week at the end of the second quarter, though, the winds started to shift for the company. Things continued to improve in the third quarter, with Tesla delivering 55,840 Model 3 from July to September. What’s more, the company also surprised Wall Street by posting $6.8 billion in revenue and beating earnings estimates with a GAAP profit of $312 million.
With large numbers of Mid Range Model 3 expected to be delivered in the fourth quarter, and with upgrades from Panasonic and Grohmann expected to be installed in Gigafactory sometime in Q4, the current quarter might very well become Tesla’s most impressive yet.
Watch a Mid Range Model 3 accelerate on a highway on-ramp in the video below.
Elon Musk
Elon Musk calls Earth’s data centers “peanuts” next to what SpaceX is planning in orbit
Elon Musk says SpaceX capex efficiency is underestimated as orbital data centers loom by 2028.
Elon Musk is pushing back on one of the biggest worries hanging over SpaceX stock. In a reply on X on Sunday, Musk said the company’s capital expenditure efficiency is severely underestimated. He was responding to a Milk Road Stocks post citing analyst Kyle Reidhead, who estimates SpaceX will need to spend roughly $470 billion over the next five quarters.
Reidhead built that figure around the target SpaceX set on its third quarter earnings call: 13 gigawatts or more of compute by the end of 2027. In his breakdown, Nvidia captures 83 to 89 percent of the spending. SpaceX ended the quarter with 1.7 GW of nameplate compute and guided to $35 billion to $40 billion in fourth quarter capex, as Teslarati reported.
Musk did not attach a number to his claim, but the earnings call shows the argument. CFO Bret Johnsen said new compute currently pays for itself in under a year at today’s pricing, and Musk said that window could shrink to six months next year. Using that pace, Reidhead argues about $230 billion of the $470 billion could come from operating cash flow and about $60 billion from SpaceX’s roughly $90 billion cash pile, leaving around $180 billion to borrow. Musk confirmed last week that SpaceX had already closed a new $40 billion debt raise to buy GPUs.
The ground buildout is not the end goal. It is what is meant to pay for the move to orbit. Replying on Friday to charts built from Sequoia partner Shaun Maguire’s SpaceX model, Musk wrote that “Terrestrial compute will be peanuts compared to orbital compute,” adding that orbital compute deployed per month “probably exceeds terrestrial around the end of 2028 and then far exceeds it in 2029.”
Maguire’s model shows how steep that path is. It has capex climbing from $88 billion this year to $290 billion in 2027 and $369 billion in 2028, with SpaceX burning $77.8 billion in cash this year and $122.6 billion next year before turning $114.9 billion cash positive in 2028. Musk’s response to the model was, “I think we can do better.”
The orbital half runs through Starmind. SpaceX plans to operate up to 1 million AI satellites flying in clusters of about 10, linked by roughly 10 terabits of bandwidth, with deployment of thousands of units starting as soon as late 2027 out of its Gigasat factory in Bastrop, Texas, according to SpaceX’s space safety page. Musk has said each Starmind spacecraft will carry more than 250 kW of solar power.
Getting there depends on launch volume. Maguire’s model assumes 250 Starship flights in 2028, up from two this year and 38 next year. The nearer test is financial: SpaceX guided to $33 billion to $37 billion in first quarter 2027 revenue, more than double the $14.58 billion it booked in Q3, and Musk reposted that guidance again on Sunday morning.
Elon Musk
SpaceX President to gift Trump Accounts her SpaceX stock
Gwynne Shotwell’s 2 million SpaceX shares are headed to children’s Trump Accounts starting this December.
SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell said Friday that more than 2 million SpaceX shares belonging to her and her husband, Robert, will be distributed to children’s Trump Accounts in December, turning a pledge she made over the summer into an actual transfer. “Robert and I are thrilled that our gift of over 2 million shares of SpaceX stock will be distributed to children’s Trump accounts in December!” Shotwell wrote on X, adding that the shares are “transferring to escrow as we speak.”
The first round goes to children aged 11 to 17 who live in ZIP codes where the median family income is $57,000 or less, along with kids in ZIP codes with too few residents for the Census to report that figure. Shotwell said those families should receive a notice by Monday, Reuters reported.
A second gift is expected to be finalized in the next few weeks. That round will cover eligible children in military families serving overseas, children in foster care, and more kids in Texas counties near the Shotwells’ home where median family income is $90,000 or less. Elon Musk replied to the announcement with “Cool” and a heart emoji.
Shotwell first announced the donation on July 6, less than a month after SpaceX priced its record IPO at $135 per share on the Nasdaq. IPO filings showed Shotwell owned about 12.6 million SpaceX shares, Quartz reported at the time, which makes the gift roughly one sixth of her stake. At the roughly $146 per share used to value Musk’s own pledge earlier this month, 2 million shares are worth about $290 million.
How the stock would actually reach the accounts had been an open question since July. Treasury guidance acknowledged that stock donations could flow into Trump Accounts, but it did not explain the mechanics for a program whose contributions default into an S&P 500 index fund. Shotwell thanked the Treasury, the IRS, the Dell Foundation, Greater Horizons, Invest America and the law firms Morgan Lewis and Gibson Dunn for “working over the past few months to make this happen.”
The transfer also works as a dry run for a far larger gift. On October 19, Musk said he would give one of his SpaceX shares to every kid in America next year and called it “the first of many.” With roughly 72 million children in the country, that pledge is worth about $10.5 billion. President Donald Trump thanked Musk the same day and said the shares would go through Trump Accounts, though neither SpaceX nor the Treasury has published how or when that distribution will happen.
Shotwell’s recipients also fill a gap in the program itself. Trump Accounts launched on July 4, and the $1,000 Treasury deposit only goes to babies born between 2025 and 2028. Teenagers aged 11 to 17 receive no government seed money, so for many of the families getting a notice on Monday, SpaceX stock will be the first asset in the account. The accounts convert into retirement accounts when the child turns 18.
Investor's Corner
Tesla has a Cybercab problem nobody saw coming
Tesla’s Cybercab line now builds robotaxis faster than Tesla can deploy them, Lars Moravy says.
Tesla’s Cybercab line in Texas can now build the two seat robotaxi faster than the company can put it into service, according to Lars Moravy, Tesla’s Vice President of Vehicle Engineering. “We don’t run every day because the line can run so fast. It’s currently outpacing our deployments,” Moravy said in a new Cybercab deep dive from Munro Live. “So, it’s a bit of a race right now. Who’s going to go faster? Right now the manufacturing line’s ahead.”
Tesla’s official Robotaxi account shared a Cybercab analysis video on X on Monday, calling it a “Cybercab engineering deep dive.” Moravy’s comments go further than what he told analysts on the Q3 earnings call last week, when he said the Cybercab line’s listed capacity of more than 125,000 units a year undersells what it can actually run.
The tour shows where that speed comes from. Tesla’s unboxed process splits the Cybercab into front, rear, side and center modules that are built and tested on their own before they meet on a short final line. That final line has just 25 fully automated stations, which Tesla’s team estimated is a fifth to a tenth of what a Model Y needs. The full line is about 78% automated, the framing line is already at 100%, and the layout uses roughly 50% less floor space per vehicle. The stated goal is “100% automation in 10 second cycle time,” or one finished Cybercab every 10 seconds.
Tesla also deleted the paint shop. Only the side modules are coated, and the exterior panels get their color inside the molding machine. Engineers said the car is designed to run at least 500,000 miles, which matters for a vehicle that will spend most of its day carrying riders.
The battery got the same treatment. The Cybercab uses an 88S6P pack of 4680 cells in a steel enclosure, a first for Tesla, with each module potted separately so a single failed module can be swapped instead of the whole pack. Wireless battery management boards replace a wiring harness, and new contactors are fast enough to drop the pyro fuse entirely. Tesla’s battery director graded the pack an A minus, compared with a D for the Model Y structural pack and a B minus for Cybertruck. Up front, the drive unit runs an 11:1 gear ratio versus roughly 9:1 on most Teslas, since the Cybercab does not need a high top speed.
Cybercab engineering deep dive — Robotaxi (@robotaxi) October 26, 2026
The deployment side is now the bottleneck Moravy described. Tesla had more than 50 Cybercabs working the Formula 1 weekend in Austin, and Texas records show 463 Cybercabs registered. Tesla said on its earnings call that Cybercab service will launch in Dallas next month, and Moravy said the company is aiming to get Cybercabs to customers by the end of 2026. Every unit built so far has gone into Tesla’s own fleet since the line moved into volume production in April.
Munro Live also asked when it could get a Cybercab to tear down. Tesla’s answer: “Not yet.”
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Tesla Full Self-Driving gets hit with some adjustments in Europe
