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Tesla Model Y production at Giga Berlin will redefine ‘Elon Time’
Tesla has made strides in terms of adjusting the timeline of Model Y deliveries. From Fall of 2020, Elon Musk and his team moved it up to Summer this year. During the company’s Q4 2019 earnings call, the carmaker announced that the initial delivery of the much-awaited electric crossover will actually happen this March. This says a lot on how the Silicon Valley-based carmaker has matured through the years.
Tesla began limited production of the Model Y at its Fremont factory and it has also started building the next phase of Giga Shanghai meant for the production of the crossover SUV. Giga Berlin would be the next big thing and with its learnings from the Model Y program in Fremont and Shanghai, the production of the Model Y in Germany may help Tesla redefine “Elon Time.”
Biggest Room For Improvement
Tesla is undeniably the leader in the electric vehicle industry. Even automotive giants have acknowledged that Tesla is the standard that they need to catch up to.
Tesla has great products and a CEO with great vision but if there’s one aspect of business all loyal followers would love to see, it’s in the timely delivery of its vehicles. Depending on how efficient ongoing production is and how many standing preorders are to be served, waiting times could be a few weeks, to a month, to a few months, or even a year or so for products that are yet to be produced. Delays, such as those experienced by reservation holders of the Model X, have even inspired the meme-worthy moniker of “Elon Time,” a reference to the CEO’s optimistic target timeframes.
Tesla’s logistics does not depend on any third-party franchise dealerships like other automakers but rather its own stores and delivery centers. Elon Musk has continually strived to improve delivery times and part of the strategy is by bringing Tesla’s car factories to its customers. Thus, Giga Shanghai is set to give a strong foothold in the biggest automotive market in the globe. Then, there’s Giga Berlin that would cater to Germany and the rest of Europe.
“It kind of makes sense. But what we’re doing — or have been doing in the past was really pretty silly in making cars in California and then shipping them halfway around the world to Asia and Europe. And this created a lot of cost, because you got to ship those cars, so they got lot of finished goods, sitting on the order or waiting at the port or going through customs, you got tariffs, transport,” said Musk. This also addresses the complexity of fulfilling the build according to the regulations of different regions.
Tesla’s Transformation as a Mature Car Manufacturer
The Tesla Giga Berlin groundbreaking is expected to happen this March and Elon Musk hopes to flick the switch on of the first Gigafactory in Europe by July 2021 to begin the production of the Model Y for Germany and the rest of Europe.
Tesla has proven itself capable of sticking to timelines when it comes to building its Gigafactories. For example, It practically turned a muddy field in China into an operational car factory in 10 months. In Germany, it has been cooperating with federal and local authorities and has addressed concerns of environmental groups to get closer and closer to laying the first brick of Giga Berlin in Grunheide.
The more interesting thing to take note of is how Tesla outlined its goals for Giga Berlin.
“Phase 1 will focus on production of Model Y, with a target capacity of 10,000 vehicles per week. We estimate that during Phase 1, we will employ up to 12,000 people, with roles being filled by local residents and employees from wider Europe,” the Giga Berlin website reads.
Manufacturing cars is far from making pancakes. Tesla’s Fremont factory has a current capacity of producing 400,000 combined Model 3 and Model Y units per year. Giga Shanghai, meanwhile, aims to do 150,000 vehicles annually. To do 10,000 units per week is a gargantuan task but realizing that Elon Musk has been underpromising and over-delivering when it comes to the Model Y, perhaps Tesla has indeed started using advanced manufacturing techniques that the CEO hinted at during a Model 3 event in Shanghai.
“Model Y will also have some advanced manufacturing technology that we will reveal in the future. I think it will be exciting to show the kind of manufacturing technology associated with the Model Y and it will be exciting to learn about these technologies,” Musk said.
No one exactly knows what these manufacturing technologies are but there are speculations that the Model Y will heavily rely on casting to quickly and efficiently produce the vehicle’s essential parts. This is also what’s suggested by earlier patents of the company.
The Model Y could be the first vehicle that demonstrates the company’s improving efficiency. It unveiled the Model Y prototype in March 2019 and it’s delivering the first units this month to consumers. This could partly be due to the Model Y sharing about 75% of its DNA with its Model 3 sibling, but it reflects Tesla’s manufacturing advancements nonetheless.
New Elon Time
If Giga Berlin remains on schedule and Tesla starts Model Y production in Germany, a country that highly values punctuality, on time, it could give its sales books a good boost as the vehicle is perfectly timed for Europe’s crossover growth. Sales of compact SUVs are forecasted to be flat this year with LCM Automotive predicting only about 2 million units in the segment as carmakers transition from older vehicles to electric vehicles. As Giga Berlin begins production of the Model Y, there is an expected uptick in demand with sales rising to 2.4 million units per year to about 2.8 million by the mid-2020s.
Beyond earnings, the redefinition Elon Time by a timely Model Y production and delivery will help Tesla gain the respect of other car manufacturers, the market, and investors. The new Elon Time would further prove why Tesla has the loyal following, and why it will be like that for a foreseeable future.
Tesla released what analysts believe the company will report in terms of deliveries and energy deployments for Q2, but the figures seem to confirm a long-standing theory on the company’s vehicle division.
For years, Tesla was just looked at as a car company. Now that it has established itself as a powerhouse in energy, AI, and tech as a whole, the company is now less hellbent on achieving quarterly growth, on a sequential basis, at least from a major standpoint.
Tesla topped out its annual deliveries in 2023 at 1.81 million, and in the two years since, the company has reported a decrease in deliveries for the entire 12-month term both times.
With Tesla delivering 358,023 cars in Q1, a 6.3 percent increase over Q1 2025, but falling short of Wall Street expectations at 365,000-370,000 units, the narrative around vehicle deliveries and their importance continued to change earlier this year. Some might say it is convenient, but others might say it is the typical evolution of a company that continues to change over time.
For Q2, Tesla’s delivery consensus estimates sit at 406,024 units, analysts believe. They were surveyed from Daiwa, DB, Wedbush, Cowen, Canaccord, Baird, Wolfe, BMP Paribas, Goldman Sachs, RBC, Evercore ISI, Barclays, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley, Truist, UBS, Jefferies, JPM, Needham & Co., HSBC, and William Blair.
Credit: Tesla
Tesla is also expected to report deployments of 13.8 GWh this quarter.
The change to Tesla’s overall narrative now leans less on vehicle deliveries and more on its other projects. Most notably, Tesla’s Robotaxi project has taken the priority over most of its other business ventures, and investors and the public are more concerned about the deployment of vehicles into the fleet, the operation of a driverless ride-hailing service, Cybercab production and operation, and expansion into new cities.
Tesla analyst realizes one big thing about the stock: deliveries are losing importance
This big narrative switch happened when Tesla indicated it was looking at making transportation a service by launching a ride-hailing service that will operate using Tesla’s Full Self-Driving suite. Once unsupervised operation begins, Robotaxi could be a new way for people to get around, all without a driver in their car.
Instead, they will rely on the billions of miles Tesla has accumulated from its real-world fleet.
It is important to note that Tesla remains significant in the automotive sector, and deliveries must continue as they have for years. Tesla still has a strong automotive business and needs to execute further on all facets to keep its investors happy.
Tesla launched the slightly larger Model Y L in China last year, and it became a hit in no time. The longer wheelbase, larger interior, and slightly more forgiving legroom area in the Model Y L became a sought-after possibility for U.S. buyers, who have been begging the company for a larger SUV.
Now, Tesla needs it more than ever, especially considering the Model X was discontinued alongside its Model S sibling earlier this year. It looks to be more likely than ever, and based on recent reports, it will fall in line with CEO Elon Musk’s prediction that it would arrive in the United States in late 2026.
Recent reports from Forbes and Not a Tesla App both have indicated Tesla plans to bring the Model Y L to the U.S. this year. The reports cite “credible sources,” and an analyst from AutoForecast Solutions named Sam Fiorani stated that the car would enter production later this year.
Fiorani said:
“China, Australia, and India are supplied by the factory in China, which will not supply vehicles to the U.S. Production of the Model Y L is expected to begin in the U.S. in September, which will lead to sales beginning before the end of 2026.”
Production would take place at Gigafactory Texas.
Additionally, a few Model Y L units have been spotted under wraps in the United States, giving more indication that Tesla plans to bring the vehicle to the U.S. When Tesla is close to launching a vehicle in the U.S., it is not uncommon to see these models with the exact car covers that you see below:
Looks like another Tesla Model Y L was spotted in the U.S.! pic.twitter.com/jhsdkcN5Go
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) June 26, 2026
It makes sense, especially considering Musk hinted the Model Y L would make it to the U.S. in late 2026, but it was up in the air. The CEO said the advent of self-driving might not warrant a larger SUV coming to the U.S. market specifically.
The problem is, consumers do not want to hear that. They love Tesla’s tech, FSD, and other features, but they need more space for growing families. The Model X is gone, and the most anyone can fit in a Tesla right now is seven people in the seven-seat Model Y. That back row is truly only large enough to fit small children comfortably.
Tesla fans have requested a full-size SUV, and the company has made some hints that it could be in the plans.
The Model Y and Model Y L differ noticeably in size, with the Model Y L being a stretched, six-seat variant designed for great interior room. The Standard Model Y measures approximately 4,790mm in length, 1,982 mm in width with the mirrors folded, 1,624mm in height, and 2,890mm in wheel base.
In contrast, the Model Y L extends to be about 4,969–4,976mm long (roughly 179mm or 7 inches longer), stands 1,668mm tall (+44mm), and features a significantly longer 3,040 mm wheelbase (+150mm), while maintaining the same width.
This elongation primarily benefits rear passenger space and enables a 2+2+2 seating layout with captain’s chairs, though it slightly reduces maximum cargo capacity behind the rearmost seats and adds a bit of overall mass and turning radius. The result is a more spacious family hauler that still shares the core footprint and agile character of the original Model Y.
In a major development that will inevitably strengthen Tesla’s dominant position in the American EV market, Polestar has been effectively banned from selling new vehicles in the United States, starting with the 2027 model year.
The U.S. Department of Commerce denied Polestar authorization under the Connected Vehicle Rule, which prohibits vehicles containing certain connected technologies (Cellular, Wi-Fi, Bluetooth, etc.) linked to China or Russia due to national security risks, including potential data collection on American drivers.
🚨 A Tesla competitor goes down
Polestar will no longer sell new vehicles in the United States starting with the 2027 model year.
The U.S. Department of Commerce denied the brand authorization under the Connected Vehicle Rule, which restricts the sale of cars with software and… pic.twitter.com/TrwnQeoiES
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) June 25, 2026
Polestar, which is majority-owned by China’s Geely Holding, could not obtain the required exemption despite producing some models domestically.
Polestar confirmed it will sell off any remaining inventory of the Polestar 3 and Polestar 4 models, while continuing service and warranty support for existing customers. No new models or major refreshes will reach U.S. buyers, and the company is pivoting its growth strategy to Europe, where it already generates the vast majority of its sales.
The outcome removes a direct premium EV competitor that had positioned itself as a stylish, performance-oriented alternative to Tesla’s lineup. The Polestar 2 challenged the Model 3, while the Polestar 3 and 4 targeted segments overlapping with the Model Y and upcoming Tesla offerings. Polestar’s U.S. sales had already been sluggish amid intense competition and slower demand, representing just 6 percent of its global volume in the first quarter of 2026.
While Polestar was not on Tesla’s level in the U.S., it still places a dent in the evergrowing field of Tesla competitors in the country, where it has long dominated EV sales.
Tesla faces none of these hurdles. As a U.S.-founded and U.S.-headquartered company with major manufacturing in Fremont, Austin, and Nevada, Tesla’s vehicles are built with compliant domestic and allied supply chains. Its Full Self-Driving technology, over-the-air software updates, and vertically integrated ecosystem were developed entirely in-house without foreign ownership entanglements that trigger national security reviews, at least in the U.S.
Of course, it did face a similar threat in China a few years back:
Elon Musk responds to reports of Tesla ban among China’s military over security concerns
The Connected Vehicle Rule, first advanced under the prior administration and upheld under the current one, is part of a broader U.S. effort to protect the domestic auto industry and critical technology from Chinese influence. High tariffs on Chinese-made EVs and related restrictions have already reshaped the market. Tesla benefits directly: it avoids these barriers while continuing to lead in U.S. EV sales volume, Supercharger network expansion, and energy storage integration.
By clearing Polestar from the new-vehicle playing field, the policy reduces competitive pressure in the premium and performance EV segments where Tesla has invested billions. American consumers seeking cutting-edge electric vehicles now have one fewer option tied to foreign adversaries — and one clearer path to the market leader that has driven the EV transition from the start.
For Tesla, this is more than regulatory relief. It is a strategic tailwind that reinforces its position as America’s premier EV innovator at a time when domestic manufacturing and technological independence matter most.
Tesla Q2 delivery consensus confirms this long-standing theory
Tesla looks keen to bring larger Model Y L to the U.S.
