Investor's Corner
Tesla to reveal Model Y production plans in late 2018, says Elon Musk
Tesla CEO Elon Musk confirmed on Wednesday’s Q4 earnings call that the company will begin making capital investments on the Model Y compact SUV sometime in the second half of 2018.
Musk reaffirmed his position that the Model Y would be created with efficiency and rapid production in mind, and even simpler to manufacture than the Model 3.
“We are going to make some capital investments towards the end of this year related to Model Y. I don’t want to jump the gun on those, but I think we’ve got a good plan. I’m pretty excited about how we’re designing Model Y. It’s really taking a lot of lessons learned from Model 3 and saying how do we design something to be easy to manufacture instead of how to manufacture or difficult, really.” Musk said during the Q4 2017 earnings call.
A welcome update to the compact all-electric SUV was further provided by the Musk, stating that announcements for the Model Y would likely happen late in the third or fourth quarter, including details on where the electric car would be manufactured.
“I really think it’s going to be pretty great and pretty scalable for Model Y. But we are going to, as you suspect, need to make some capital investments in the second half of this year, really late Q3, Q4 for Model Y. But I think we want to wait probably three to six months before announcing any definitive plans on production location and the details associated with that.” said Musk.
-->Though the serial tech entrepreneur did not drop any clues this time around on where Model Y might be manufactured, Musk had previously mentioned that Model Y is expected to begin production in 2020, and aimed at the Chinese market to start.
“It’s sort of a rough target of start of production in about three years and it would be serving the China market and perhaps some other countries in the region and that’s really the intent,” said Musk in last year’s Q3 earnings call to analysts.
“[Tesla] won’t be making Model S and Model X, but we’ll be making probably Model 3, probably Model Y primarily for the local Chinese market and it’s really the only way to make the cars affordable in China, but it’s three years out, so.”
Elon Musk teases a rendering of a Tesla Model Y during the company’s annual shareholder meeting in 2017.
Built on the Model 3 platform, the Model Y would be marketed as a crossover SUV, competing with the leaders in the field such as the Subaru Outback, Toyota Rav4, and the Honda CR-V. Considering the huge demand for crossover SUVs on the automotive market, Tesla expects the Model Y to be one of its most popular offerings, ultimately helping the company to achieve its goal of producing 1 million cars per year in 2020.
Just like the Model 3, the Model Y would feature a number of new innovations for the electric car maker, including a new “flex circuit,” a wiring system that would drastically lower the number of wires needed for the vehicle. The Model 3 currently utilizes 1.5 km of wiring, which is already significantly less than the 3 km of wires used in the Model S and X. The Model Y, on the other hand, will only use 100 m of wiring, for a 95% reduction over the Model 3.
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Investor's Corner
Mizuho keeps Tesla (TSLA) “Outperform” rating but lowers price target
As per the Mizuho analyst, upcoming changes to EV incentives in the U.S. and China could affect Tesla’s unit growth more than previously expected.
Mizuho analyst Vijay Rakesh lowered Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) price target to $475 from $485, citing potential 2026 EV subsidy cuts in the U.S. and China that could pressure deliveries. The firm maintained its Outperform rating for the electric vehicle maker, however.
As per the Mizuho analyst, upcoming changes to EV incentives in the U.S. and China could affect Tesla’s unit growth more than previously expected. The U.S. accounted for roughly 37% of Tesla’s third-quarter 2025 sales, while China represented about 34%, making both markets highly sensitive to policy shifts. Potential 50% cuts to Chinese subsidies and reduced U.S. incentives affected the firm’s outlook.
With those pressures factored in, the firm now expects Tesla to deliver 1.75 million vehicles in 2026 and 2 million in 2027, slightly below consensus estimates of 1.82 million and 2.15 million, respectively. The analyst was cautiously optimistic, as near-term pressure from subsidies is there, but the company’s long-term tech roadmap remains very compelling.
Despite the revised target, Mizuho remained optimistic on Tesla’s long-term technology roadmap. The firm highlighted three major growth drivers into 2027: the broader adoption of Full Self-Driving V14, the expansion of Tesla’s Robotaxi service, and the commercialization of Optimus, the company’s humanoid robot.
“We are lowering TSLA Ests/PT to $475 with Potential BEV headwinds in 2026E. We believe into 2026E, US (~37% of TSLA 3Q25 sales) EV subsidy cuts and China (34% of TSLA 3Q25 sales) potential 50% EV subsidy cuts could be a headwind to EV deliveries.
-->“We are now estimating TSLA deliveries for 2026/27E at 1.75M/2.00M (slightly below cons. 1.82M/2.15M). We see some LT drivers with FSD v14 adoption for autonomous, robotaxi launches, and humanoid robots into 2027 driving strength,” the analyst noted.
Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) has landed an elusive “must own” status from Wall Street firm Melius, according to a new note released early this week.
Analyst Rob Wertheimer said Tesla will lead the charge in world-changing tech, given the company’s focus on self-driving, autonomy, and Robotaxi. In a note to investors, Wertheimer said “the world is about to change, dramatically,” because of the advent of self-driving cars.
He looks at the industry and sees many potential players, but the firm says there will only be one true winner:
“Our point is not that Tesla is at risk, it’s that everybody else is.”
The major argument is that autonomy is nearing a tipping point where years of chipping away at the software and data needed to develop a sound, safe, and effective form of autonomous driving technology turn into an avalanche of progress.
Wertheimer believes autonomy is a $7 trillion sector,” and in the coming years, investors will see “hundreds of billions in value shift to Tesla.”
A lot of the major growth has to do with the all-too-common “butts in seats” strategy, as Wertheimer believes that only a fraction of people in the United States have ridden in a self-driving car. In Tesla’s regard, only “tens of thousands” have tried Tesla’s latest Full Self-Driving (Supervised) version, which is v14.
Tesla Full Self-Driving v14.2 – Full Review, the Good and the Bad
When it reaches a widespread rollout and more people are able to experience Tesla Full Self-Driving v14, he believes “it will shock most people.”
Citing things like Tesla’s massive data pool from its vehicles, as well as its shift to end-to-end neural nets in 2021 and 2022, as well as the upcoming AI5 chip, which will be put into a handful of vehicles next year, but will reach a wider rollout in 2027, Melius believes many investors are not aware of the pace of advancement in self-driving.
Tesla’s lead in its self-driving efforts is expanding, Wertheimer says. The company is making strategic choices on everything from hardware to software, manufacturing, and overall vehicle design. He says Tesla has left legacy automakers struggling to keep pace as they still rely on outdated architectures and fragmented supplier systems.
Tesla shares are up over 6 percent at 10:40 a.m. on the East Coast, trading at around $416.
Investor's Corner
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) received fresh support from Piper Sandler this week after analysts toured the Fremont Factory and tested the company’s latest Full Self-Driving software. The firm reaffirmed its $500 price target, stating that FSD V14 delivered a notably smooth robotaxi demonstration and may already perform at levels comparable to, if not better than, average human drivers.
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Analysts highlight autonomy progress
During more than 75 minutes of focused discussions, analysts reportedly focused on FSD v14’s updates. Piper Sandler’s team pointed to meaningful strides in perception, object handling, and overall ride smoothness during the robotaxi demo.
The visit also included discussions on updates to Tesla’s in-house chip initiatives, its Optimus program, and the growth of the company’s battery storage business. Analysts noted that Tesla continues refining cost structures and capital expenditure expectations, which are key elements in future margin recovery, as noted in a Yahoo Finance report.
Analyst Alexander Potter noted that “we think FSD is a truly impressive product that is (probably) already better at driving than the average American.” This conclusion was strengthened by what he described as a “flawless robotaxi ride to the hotel.”
-->Street targets diverge on TSLA
While Piper Sandler stands by its $500 target, it is not the highest estimate on the Street. Wedbush, for one, has a $600 per share price target for TSLA stock.
Other institutions have also weighed in on TSLA stock as of late. HSBC reiterated a Reduce rating with a $131 target, citing a gap between earnings fundamentals and the company’s market value. By contrast, TD Cowen maintained a Buy rating and a $509 target, pointing to strong autonomous driving demonstrations in Austin and the pace of software-driven improvements.
Stifel analysts also lifted their price target for Tesla to $508 per share over the company’s ongoing robotaxi and FSD programs.
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