Investor's Corner
Tesla registers another strong batch of Model 3 VINs as Musk sees end to production hell
Just a day after registering more than 6,000 new Model 3 Dual Motor AWD vehicle identification numbers, Tesla has filed for another batch of 2,226 VINs for the compact electric car. With this latest filing, Tesla has registered 15,430 Model 3 for July so far, bringing the total number of registrations to 71,827.
#Tesla registered 2,226 new #Model3 VINs. ~60% estimated to be dual motor. Highest VIN is 71827. https://t.co/UNJGKI2Hb5
— Model 3 VINs (@Model3VINs) July 12, 2018
The newest batch of filings comes at a time when Tesla is hard at work attempting to prove that it can sustain the “burst” rate for the Model 3 the company displayed during the final seven days of Q2 2018, when 5,000 of the vehicles were produced in one week. While the electric car maker managed to hit its Model 3 production targets for the second quarter, doubts about the company’s capability to maintain its optimal levels of production caused Tesla’s stock to plummet.
While doubts about the company’s capability to effectively scale the Model 3’s production are understandable, recent signs from Tesla indicate that the present quarter would end with far better figures than that of Q2 2018. In a statement to Bloomberg Businessweek, Elon Musk admitted that while the past year has been very challenging, he remains optimistic about the company’s chances for the coming year.
“The past year has been very difficult, but I feel like the coming year is going to be really quite good. (We) still (have) one foot in hell. Manufacturing hell will be over in a month,” Musk said.
Musk’s latest statement comes amid reports from the Tesla community stating that the automaker’s investor relation team headed by Senior Director of Investor Relations Aaron Chew held a meeting with investors and analysts last Tuesday. According to reports, Chew gave some new updates on the Model 3’s production, stating that GA3 is currently running at 4,000 vehicles per week while GA4, which is set up in a sprung structure on Fremont’s grounds, is producing 1,000 cars weekly.
Chew also reportedly stated that Tesla is expecting GA3 to ramp to 5,000 Model 3 per week while keeping GA4 at 1,000 weekly by the end of July. With this setup, Tesla would be producing 6,000 vehicles per week, but realistically sustaining a 5,000 a week rate for the rest of Q3 2018. From this point, Tesla would be ramping the Model 3’s production at a deliberate pace, targeting 7,000 cars per week for Q4 2018 and 10,000 per week by mid-2019.
Considering Tesla’s targets for the coming years, the company must be able to tick off the Model 3’s manufacturing from its to-do list. Tesla, after all, has a long list of projects ahead, including the recently-announced Gigafactory 3 in China, the Model Y, the Tesla Semi, the next-gen Roadster, Gigafactory 4 in Europe, and the Tesla Truck. If Tesla is to finish all these projects, it would have to start earning revenue from the Model 3; and for this to happen, the production of the vehicle must be fully optimized.
With Elon Musk’s estimates that production hell is ending in a month, however, together with Andrew Chew’s statement to investors regarding the Model 3’s sustained production rate for Q3 2018, Tesla could very well end the year with enough momentum to start 2019 on a strong note.
Investor's Corner
Tesla analyst realizes one big thing about the stock: deliveries are losing importance
Tesla analyst Dan Levy of Barclays realized one big thing about the stock moving into 2026: vehicle deliveries are losing importance.
As a new era of Tesla seems to be on the horizon, the concern about vehicle deliveries and annual growth seems to be fading, at least according to many investors.
Even CEO Elon Musk has implied at times that the automotive side, as a whole, will only make up a small percentage of Tesla’s total valuation, as Optimus and AI begin to shine with importance.
He said in April:
“The future of the company is fundamentally based on large-scale autonomous cars and large-scale and large volume, vast numbers of autonomous humanoid robots.”
Almost all of Tesla’s value long-term will be from AI & robots, both vehicle & humanoid
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) September 11, 2023
Levy wrote in a note to investors that Tesla’s Q4 delivery figures “likely won’t matter for the stock.” Barclays said in the note that it expects deliveries to be “soft” for the quarter.
In years past, Tesla analysts, investors, and fans were focused on automotive growth.
Cars were truly the biggest thing the stock had to offer: Tesla was a growing automotive company with a lot of prowess in AI and software, but deliveries held the most impact, along with vehicle pricing. These types of things had huge impacts on the stock years ago.
In fact, several large swings occurred because of Tesla either beating or missing delivery estimates:
- January 3, 2022: +13.53%, record deliveries at the time
- January 3, 2023: -12.24%, missed deliveries
- July 2, 2024: +10.20%, beat delivery expectations
- October 3, 2022: -8.61%, sharp miss due to Shanghai factory shutdown
- July 2, 2020: +7.95%, topped low COVID-era expectations with sizeable beat on deliveries
It has become more apparent over the past few quarters that delivery estimates have significantly less focus from investors, who are instead looking for progress in AI, Optimus, Cybercab, and other projects.
These things are the future of the company, and although Tesla will always sell cars, the stock is more impacted by the software the vehicle is running, and not necessarily the vehicle itself.
Investor's Corner
SpaceX IPO is coming, CEO Elon Musk confirms
However, it appears Musk is ready for SpaceX to go public, as Ars Technica Senior Space Editor Eric Berger wrote an op-ed that indicated he thought SpaceX would go public soon. Musk replied, basically confirming it.
Elon Musk confirmed through a post on X that a SpaceX initial public offering (IPO) is on the way after hinting at it several times earlier this year.
It also comes one day after Bloomberg reported that SpaceX was aiming for a valuation of $1.5 trillion, adding that it wanted to raise $30 billion.
Musk has been transparent for most of the year that he wanted to try to figure out a way to get Tesla shareholders to invest in SpaceX, giving them access to the stock.
He has also recognized the issues of having a public stock, like litigation exposure, quarterly reporting pressures, and other inconveniences.
However, it appears Musk is ready for SpaceX to go public, as Ars Technica Senior Space Editor Eric Berger wrote an op-ed that indicated he thought SpaceX would go public soon.
Musk replied, basically confirming it:
As usual, Eric is accurate
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) December 10, 2025
Berger believes the IPO would help support the need for $30 billion or more in capital needed to fund AI integration projects, such as space-based data centers and lunar satellite factories. Musk confirmed recently that SpaceX “will be doing” data centers in orbit.
AI appears to be a “key part” of SpaceX getting to Musk, Berger also wrote. When writing about whether or not Optimus is a viable project and product for the company, he says that none of that matters. Musk thinks it is, and that’s all that matters.
It seems like Musk has certainly mulled something this big for a very long time, and the idea of taking SpaceX public is not just likely; it is necessary for the company to get to Mars.
The details of when SpaceX will finally hit that public status are not known. Many of the reports that came out over the past few days indicate it would happen in 2026, so sooner rather than later.
But there are a lot of things on Musk’s plate early next year, especially with Cybercab production, the potential launch of Unsupervised Full Self-Driving, and the Roadster unveiling, all planned for Q1.
Investor's Corner
Tesla Full Self-Driving statistic impresses Wall Street firm: ‘Very close to unsupervised’
The data shows there was a significant jump in miles traveled between interventions as Tesla transitioned drivers to v14.1 back in October. The FSD Community Tracker saw a jump from 441 miles to over 9,200 miles, the most significant improvement in four years.
Tesla Full Self-Driving performance and statistics continue to impress everyone, from retail investors to Wall Street firms. However, one analyst believes Tesla’s driving suite is “very close” to achieving unsupervised self-driving.
On Tuesday, Piper Sandler analyst Alexander Potter said that Tesla’s recent launch of Full Self-Driving version 14 increased the number of miles traveled between interventions by a drastic margin, based on data compiled by a Full Self-Driving Community Tracker.
🚨 Piper Sandler reiterated its Overweight rating and $500 PT on Tesla $TSLA stock
Analyst Alexander Potter said FSD is near full autonomy and latest versions showed the largest improvement in disengagements, from 440 miles to 9,200 miles between critical interventions pic.twitter.com/u4WCLfZcA9
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) December 9, 2025
The data shows there was a significant jump in miles traveled between interventions as Tesla transitioned drivers to v14.1 back in October. The FSD Community Tracker saw a jump from 441 miles to over 9,200 miles, the most significant improvement in four years.
Interestingly, there was a slight dip in the miles traveled between interventions with the release of v14.2. Piper Sandler said investor interest in FSD has increased.
Full Self-Driving has displayed several improvements with v14, including the introduction of Arrival Options that allow specific parking situations to be chosen by the driver prior to arriving at the destination. Owners can choose from Street Parking, Parking Garages, Parking Lots, Chargers, and Driveways.
Additionally, the overall improvements in performance from v13 have been evident through smoother operation, fewer mistakes during routine operation, and a more refined decision-making process.
Early versions of v14 exhibited stuttering and brake stabbing, but Tesla did a great job of confronting the issue and eliminating it altogether with the release of v14.2.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk also recently stated that the current v14.2 FSD suite is also less restrictive with drivers looking at their phones, which has caused some controversy within the community.
Although we tested it and found there were fewer nudges by the driver monitoring system to push eyes back to the road, we still would not recommend it due to laws and regulations.
Tesla Full Self-Driving v14.2.1 texting and driving: we tested it
With that being said, FSD is improving significantly with each larger rollout, and Musk believes the final piece of the puzzle will be unveiled with FSD v14.3, which could come later this year or early in 2026.
Piper Sandler reaffirmed its $500 price target on Tesla shares, as well as its ‘Overweight’ rating.
Tesla Cybertruck earns IIHS Top Safety Pick+ award
Tesla stands to gain from Ford’s decision to ditch large EVs
