Investor's Corner
Tesla’s new Lathrop site nears completion amid Elon Musk’s Q4 Model 3 push
Tesla’s 870,000 sq ft building in the city of Lathrop, CA continues to take shape, with the massive and rather mysterious facility’s roofing now being complete. The new Lathrop site’s progress comes amidst the electric car maker’s efforts to produce and deliver as many vehicles to customers before the end of December.
Tesla enthusiast and drone operator Troopr1023 noted in a YouTube upload that the facility is significantly more refined since his last flyover, which was conducted last November 18. During that time, the large building only had around 2/3 of its roofing installed, and there was very little work being done around the facility.
Apart from its full roofing, the areas of the facility where its numerous loading bays are located are now being overlaid with cement. A parking lot located in what appears to be the facility’s front end is also being constructed. The drone operator did note, though, that the spaces allotted for parking lots immediately around the site are rather few; thus, giving the impression that the facility would likely have relatively few employees.
Tesla is yet to disclose the purpose of the Lathrop facility, though speculations are abounding that the site might be used as a distribution center. Considering that the structure is built with numerous loading bays on each end, and considering that the size of each bay seems to be designed to fit a semi-trailer, it does seem plausible that the structure would be used in connection with Tesla’s vehicle distribution activities.
Even prior to the construction of the 870,000 sq ft building, Tesla’s presence in Lathrop was already notable. Local news agency Manteca Bulletin, for one, noted that the upcoming facility would be complimenting a 500,000 sq ft Tesla-owned site in the city. Lathrop is also home to one of the electric car maker’s loading hubs, which holds vehicles before they are shipped to other locations.
Tesla’s progress in the construction of the Lathrop facility comes amidst the company’s efforts to produce and deliver yet another record number of vehicles this quarter. The electric car maker defied the odds in Q3 by posting a $312 million profit, and since then, Elon Musk has noted that Tesla should remain cash-flow positive in the coming quarters as well. With the end of Q4 at hand, and with the $7,500 federal tax credit set to expire at the end of the month, Tesla CEO Elon Musk has been encouraging potential buyers to purchase an electric car today.
Tesla has released all cars for sale where original customer can’t take delivery before year end, as well as test drive / display cars, which cost less.
Reminder to US buyers that $7500 tax credit drops in half in 8 days. Order online at https://t.co/46TXqRrsdr or visit stores.
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) December 22, 2018
In a recent series of tweets, Musk noted that Tesla is releasing inventory, display, and test drive vehicles for purchase. Musk even noted in a recent tweet that these vehicles, as well as cars that belonged to reservation holders who couldn’t take delivery before the year ended, would cost less. The bold CEO further added that orders for the Mid Range Model 3 should be delivered by the year’s end.
Perhaps most notable, though, was an announcement that Musk recently made about the $7,500 federal tax credit. When asked by a Mid Range Model 3 reservation holder what would happen if an order is not fulfilled before the end of December, Musk noted that Tesla would cover the tax credit difference.
If Tesla committed delivery & customer made good faith efforts to receive before year end, Tesla will cover the tax credit difference
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) December 22, 2018
While Tesla is making progress on its US facilities and deliveries, the company is already laying the foundations for an even more aggressive ramp next year. In Europe, for example, reports have emerged that Tesla is preparing to ship 3,000 Model 3 per week for the region. The rollout of CCS-compatible Superchargers for the Model 3 have also begun. On the other side of the world, Gigafactory 3 in China continues to take shape, with local reports stating that the facility is progressing “one year ahead of schedule.”
Watch the Lathrop facility’s latest drone flyover in the video below.
Elon Musk
Tesla locks in Elon Musk’s top problem solver as it enters its most ambitious era
The generous equity award was disclosed by the electric vehicle maker in a recent regulatory filing.
Tesla has granted Senior Vice President of Automotive Tom Zhu more than 520,000 stock options, tying a significant portion of his compensation to the company’s long-term performance.
The generous equity award was disclosed by the electric vehicle maker in a recent regulatory filing.
Tesla secures top talent
According to a Form 4 filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, Tom Zhu received 520,021 stock options with an exercise price of $435.80 per share. Since the award will not fully vest until March 5, 2031, Zhu must remain at Tesla for more than five years to realize the award’s full benefit.
Considering that Tesla shares are currently trading at around the $445 to $450 per share level, Zhu will really only see gains in his equity award if Tesla’s stock price sees a notable rise over the years, as noted in a Sina Finance report.
Still, even at today’s prices, Zhu’s stock award is already worth over $230 million. If Tesla reaches the market cap targets set forth in Elon Musk’s 2025 CEO Performance Award, Zhu would become a billionaire from this equity award alone.
Tesla’s problem solver
Zhu joined Tesla in April 2014 and initially led the company’s Supercharger rollout in China. Later that year, he assumed the leadership of Tesla’s China business, where he played a central role in Tesla’s localization efforts, including expanding retail and service networks, and later, overseeing the development of Gigafactory Shanghai.
Zhu’s efforts helped transform China into one of Tesla’s most important markets and production hubs. In 2023, Tesla promoted Zhu to Senior Vice President of Automotive, placing him among the company’s core global executives and expanding his influence beyond China. He has since garnered a reputation as the company’s problem solver, being tapped by Elon Musk to help ramp Giga Texas’s vehicle production.
With this in mind, Tesla’s recent filing seems to suggest that the company is locking in its top talent as it enters its newest, most ambitious era to date. As could be seen in the targets of Elon Musk’s 2025 pay package, Tesla is now aiming to be the world’s largest company by market cap, and it is aiming to achieve production levels that are unheard of. Zhu’s talents would definitely be of use in this stage of the company’s growth.
Tesla analyst Andrew Percoco of Morgan Stanley teased the company’s dominance in its self-driving initiative, stating that its lead over competitors is “not even close.”
Percoco recently overtook coverage of Tesla stock from Adam Jonas, who had covered the company at Morgan Stanley for years. Percoco is handling Tesla now that Jonas is covering embodied AI stocks and no longer automotive.
His first move after grabbing coverage was to adjust the price target from $410 to $425, as well as the rating from ‘Overweight’ to ‘Equal Weight.’
Percoco’s new note regarding Tesla highlights the company’s extensive lead in self-driving and autonomy projects, something that it has plenty of competition in, but has established its prowess over the past few years.
He writes:
“It’s not even close. Tesla continues to lead in autonomous driving, even as Nvidia rolls out new technology aimed at helping other automakers build driverless systems.”
Percoco’s main point regarding Tesla’s advantage is the company’s ability to collect large amounts of training data through its massive fleet, as millions of cars are driving throughout the world and gathering millions of miles of vehicle behavior on the road.
This is the main point that Percoco makes regarding Tesla’s lead in the entire autonomy sector: data is King, and Tesla has the most of it.
One big story that has hit the news over the past week is that of NVIDIA and its own self-driving suite, called Alpamayo. NVIDIA launched this open-source AI program last week, but it differs from Tesla’s in a significant fashion, especially from a hardware perspective, as it plans to use a combination of LiDAR, Radar, and Vision (Cameras) to operate.
Percoco said that NVIDIA’s announcement does not impact Morgan Stanley’s long-term opinions on Tesla and its strength or prowess in self-driving.
NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang commends Tesla’s Elon Musk for early belief
And, for what it’s worth, NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang even said some remarkable things about Tesla following the launch of Alpamayo:
“I think the Tesla stack is the most advanced autonomous vehicle stack in the world. I’m fairly certain they were already using end-to-end AI. Whether their AI did reasoning or not is somewhat secondary to that first part.”
Percoco reiterated both the $425 price target and the ‘Equal Weight’ rating on Tesla shares.
Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) just got a price target boost from its biggest bear, Gordon Johnson of GLJ Research, who raised his expected trading level to one that is 95 percent lower than its current trading level.
Johnson pushed his Tesla price target from $19.05 to $25.28 on Wednesday, while maintaining the ‘Sell’ rating that has been present on the stock for a long time. GLJ has largely been recognized as the biggest skeptic of Elon Musk’s company, being particularly critical of the automotive side of things.
Tesla has routinely been called out by Johnson for negative delivery growth, what he calls “weakening demand,” and price cuts that have occurred in past years, all pointing to them as desperate measures to sell its cars.
Johnson has also said that Tesla is extremely overvalued and is too reliant on regulatory credits for profitability. Other analysts on the bullish side recognize Tesla as a company that is bigger than just its automotive side.
Many believe it is a leader in autonomous driving, like Dan Ives of Wedbush, who believes Tesla will have a widely successful 2026, especially if it can come through on its targets and schedules for Robotaxi and Cybercab.
Justifying the price target this week, Johnson said that the revised valuation is based on “reality rather than narrative.” Tesla has been noted by other analysts and financial experts as a stock that trades on narrative, something Johnson obviously disagrees with.
Dan Nathan, a notorious skeptic of the stock, turned bullish late last year, recognizing the company’s shares trade on “technicals and sentiment.” He said, “From a trading perspective, it looks very interesting.”
Tesla bear turns bullish for two reasons as stock continues boost
Johnson has remained very consistent with this sentiment regarding Tesla and his beliefs regarding its true valuation, and has never shied away from putting his true thoughts out there.
Tesla shares closed at $431.40 today, about 95 percent above where Johnson’s new price target lies.
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