Investor's Corner
Tesla’s new Lathrop site nears completion amid Elon Musk’s Q4 Model 3 push
Tesla’s 870,000 sq ft building in the city of Lathrop, CA continues to take shape, with the massive and rather mysterious facility’s roofing now being complete. The new Lathrop site’s progress comes amidst the electric car maker’s efforts to produce and deliver as many vehicles to customers before the end of December.
Tesla enthusiast and drone operator Troopr1023 noted in a YouTube upload that the facility is significantly more refined since his last flyover, which was conducted last November 18. During that time, the large building only had around 2/3 of its roofing installed, and there was very little work being done around the facility.
Apart from its full roofing, the areas of the facility where its numerous loading bays are located are now being overlaid with cement. A parking lot located in what appears to be the facility’s front end is also being constructed. The drone operator did note, though, that the spaces allotted for parking lots immediately around the site are rather few; thus, giving the impression that the facility would likely have relatively few employees.
Tesla is yet to disclose the purpose of the Lathrop facility, though speculations are abounding that the site might be used as a distribution center. Considering that the structure is built with numerous loading bays on each end, and considering that the size of each bay seems to be designed to fit a semi-trailer, it does seem plausible that the structure would be used in connection with Tesla’s vehicle distribution activities.
Even prior to the construction of the 870,000 sq ft building, Tesla’s presence in Lathrop was already notable. Local news agency Manteca Bulletin, for one, noted that the upcoming facility would be complimenting a 500,000 sq ft Tesla-owned site in the city. Lathrop is also home to one of the electric car maker’s loading hubs, which holds vehicles before they are shipped to other locations.
-->Tesla’s progress in the construction of the Lathrop facility comes amidst the company’s efforts to produce and deliver yet another record number of vehicles this quarter. The electric car maker defied the odds in Q3 by posting a $312 million profit, and since then, Elon Musk has noted that Tesla should remain cash-flow positive in the coming quarters as well. With the end of Q4 at hand, and with the $7,500 federal tax credit set to expire at the end of the month, Tesla CEO Elon Musk has been encouraging potential buyers to purchase an electric car today.
Tesla has released all cars for sale where original customer can’t take delivery before year end, as well as test drive / display cars, which cost less.
Reminder to US buyers that $7500 tax credit drops in half in 8 days. Order online at https://t.co/46TXqRrsdr or visit stores.
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) December 22, 2018
In a recent series of tweets, Musk noted that Tesla is releasing inventory, display, and test drive vehicles for purchase. Musk even noted in a recent tweet that these vehicles, as well as cars that belonged to reservation holders who couldn’t take delivery before the year ended, would cost less. The bold CEO further added that orders for the Mid Range Model 3 should be delivered by the year’s end.
-->Perhaps most notable, though, was an announcement that Musk recently made about the $7,500 federal tax credit. When asked by a Mid Range Model 3 reservation holder what would happen if an order is not fulfilled before the end of December, Musk noted that Tesla would cover the tax credit difference.
If Tesla committed delivery & customer made good faith efforts to receive before year end, Tesla will cover the tax credit difference
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) December 22, 2018
While Tesla is making progress on its US facilities and deliveries, the company is already laying the foundations for an even more aggressive ramp next year. In Europe, for example, reports have emerged that Tesla is preparing to ship 3,000 Model 3 per week for the region. The rollout of CCS-compatible Superchargers for the Model 3 have also begun. On the other side of the world, Gigafactory 3 in China continues to take shape, with local reports stating that the facility is progressing “one year ahead of schedule.”
Watch the Lathrop facility’s latest drone flyover in the video below.
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Investor's Corner
Mizuho keeps Tesla (TSLA) “Outperform” rating but lowers price target
As per the Mizuho analyst, upcoming changes to EV incentives in the U.S. and China could affect Tesla’s unit growth more than previously expected.
Mizuho analyst Vijay Rakesh lowered Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) price target to $475 from $485, citing potential 2026 EV subsidy cuts in the U.S. and China that could pressure deliveries. The firm maintained its Outperform rating for the electric vehicle maker, however.
As per the Mizuho analyst, upcoming changes to EV incentives in the U.S. and China could affect Tesla’s unit growth more than previously expected. The U.S. accounted for roughly 37% of Tesla’s third-quarter 2025 sales, while China represented about 34%, making both markets highly sensitive to policy shifts. Potential 50% cuts to Chinese subsidies and reduced U.S. incentives affected the firm’s outlook.
With those pressures factored in, the firm now expects Tesla to deliver 1.75 million vehicles in 2026 and 2 million in 2027, slightly below consensus estimates of 1.82 million and 2.15 million, respectively. The analyst was cautiously optimistic, as near-term pressure from subsidies is there, but the company’s long-term tech roadmap remains very compelling.
Despite the revised target, Mizuho remained optimistic on Tesla’s long-term technology roadmap. The firm highlighted three major growth drivers into 2027: the broader adoption of Full Self-Driving V14, the expansion of Tesla’s Robotaxi service, and the commercialization of Optimus, the company’s humanoid robot.
“We are lowering TSLA Ests/PT to $475 with Potential BEV headwinds in 2026E. We believe into 2026E, US (~37% of TSLA 3Q25 sales) EV subsidy cuts and China (34% of TSLA 3Q25 sales) potential 50% EV subsidy cuts could be a headwind to EV deliveries.
-->“We are now estimating TSLA deliveries for 2026/27E at 1.75M/2.00M (slightly below cons. 1.82M/2.15M). We see some LT drivers with FSD v14 adoption for autonomous, robotaxi launches, and humanoid robots into 2027 driving strength,” the analyst noted.
Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) has landed an elusive “must own” status from Wall Street firm Melius, according to a new note released early this week.
Analyst Rob Wertheimer said Tesla will lead the charge in world-changing tech, given the company’s focus on self-driving, autonomy, and Robotaxi. In a note to investors, Wertheimer said “the world is about to change, dramatically,” because of the advent of self-driving cars.
He looks at the industry and sees many potential players, but the firm says there will only be one true winner:
“Our point is not that Tesla is at risk, it’s that everybody else is.”
The major argument is that autonomy is nearing a tipping point where years of chipping away at the software and data needed to develop a sound, safe, and effective form of autonomous driving technology turn into an avalanche of progress.
Wertheimer believes autonomy is a $7 trillion sector,” and in the coming years, investors will see “hundreds of billions in value shift to Tesla.”
A lot of the major growth has to do with the all-too-common “butts in seats” strategy, as Wertheimer believes that only a fraction of people in the United States have ridden in a self-driving car. In Tesla’s regard, only “tens of thousands” have tried Tesla’s latest Full Self-Driving (Supervised) version, which is v14.
Tesla Full Self-Driving v14.2 – Full Review, the Good and the Bad
When it reaches a widespread rollout and more people are able to experience Tesla Full Self-Driving v14, he believes “it will shock most people.”
Citing things like Tesla’s massive data pool from its vehicles, as well as its shift to end-to-end neural nets in 2021 and 2022, as well as the upcoming AI5 chip, which will be put into a handful of vehicles next year, but will reach a wider rollout in 2027, Melius believes many investors are not aware of the pace of advancement in self-driving.
Tesla’s lead in its self-driving efforts is expanding, Wertheimer says. The company is making strategic choices on everything from hardware to software, manufacturing, and overall vehicle design. He says Tesla has left legacy automakers struggling to keep pace as they still rely on outdated architectures and fragmented supplier systems.
Tesla shares are up over 6 percent at 10:40 a.m. on the East Coast, trading at around $416.
Investor's Corner
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) received fresh support from Piper Sandler this week after analysts toured the Fremont Factory and tested the company’s latest Full Self-Driving software. The firm reaffirmed its $500 price target, stating that FSD V14 delivered a notably smooth robotaxi demonstration and may already perform at levels comparable to, if not better than, average human drivers.
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Analysts highlight autonomy progress
During more than 75 minutes of focused discussions, analysts reportedly focused on FSD v14’s updates. Piper Sandler’s team pointed to meaningful strides in perception, object handling, and overall ride smoothness during the robotaxi demo.
The visit also included discussions on updates to Tesla’s in-house chip initiatives, its Optimus program, and the growth of the company’s battery storage business. Analysts noted that Tesla continues refining cost structures and capital expenditure expectations, which are key elements in future margin recovery, as noted in a Yahoo Finance report.
Analyst Alexander Potter noted that “we think FSD is a truly impressive product that is (probably) already better at driving than the average American.” This conclusion was strengthened by what he described as a “flawless robotaxi ride to the hotel.”
-->Street targets diverge on TSLA
While Piper Sandler stands by its $500 target, it is not the highest estimate on the Street. Wedbush, for one, has a $600 per share price target for TSLA stock.
Other institutions have also weighed in on TSLA stock as of late. HSBC reiterated a Reduce rating with a $131 target, citing a gap between earnings fundamentals and the company’s market value. By contrast, TD Cowen maintained a Buy rating and a $509 target, pointing to strong autonomous driving demonstrations in Austin and the pace of software-driven improvements.
Stifel analysts also lifted their price target for Tesla to $508 per share over the company’s ongoing robotaxi and FSD programs.
Tesla’s new Holiday perk is timed perfectly to make FSD a household name
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