Investor's Corner
Tesla’s new Lathrop site nears completion amid Elon Musk’s Q4 Model 3 push
Tesla’s 870,000 sq ft building in the city of Lathrop, CA continues to take shape, with the massive and rather mysterious facility’s roofing now being complete. The new Lathrop site’s progress comes amidst the electric car maker’s efforts to produce and deliver as many vehicles to customers before the end of December.
Tesla enthusiast and drone operator Troopr1023 noted in a YouTube upload that the facility is significantly more refined since his last flyover, which was conducted last November 18. During that time, the large building only had around 2/3 of its roofing installed, and there was very little work being done around the facility.
Apart from its full roofing, the areas of the facility where its numerous loading bays are located are now being overlaid with cement. A parking lot located in what appears to be the facility’s front end is also being constructed. The drone operator did note, though, that the spaces allotted for parking lots immediately around the site are rather few; thus, giving the impression that the facility would likely have relatively few employees.
Tesla is yet to disclose the purpose of the Lathrop facility, though speculations are abounding that the site might be used as a distribution center. Considering that the structure is built with numerous loading bays on each end, and considering that the size of each bay seems to be designed to fit a semi-trailer, it does seem plausible that the structure would be used in connection with Tesla’s vehicle distribution activities.
Even prior to the construction of the 870,000 sq ft building, Tesla’s presence in Lathrop was already notable. Local news agency Manteca Bulletin, for one, noted that the upcoming facility would be complimenting a 500,000 sq ft Tesla-owned site in the city. Lathrop is also home to one of the electric car maker’s loading hubs, which holds vehicles before they are shipped to other locations.
Tesla’s progress in the construction of the Lathrop facility comes amidst the company’s efforts to produce and deliver yet another record number of vehicles this quarter. The electric car maker defied the odds in Q3 by posting a $312 million profit, and since then, Elon Musk has noted that Tesla should remain cash-flow positive in the coming quarters as well. With the end of Q4 at hand, and with the $7,500 federal tax credit set to expire at the end of the month, Tesla CEO Elon Musk has been encouraging potential buyers to purchase an electric car today.
Tesla has released all cars for sale where original customer can’t take delivery before year end, as well as test drive / display cars, which cost less.
Reminder to US buyers that $7500 tax credit drops in half in 8 days. Order online at https://t.co/46TXqRrsdr or visit stores.
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) December 22, 2018
In a recent series of tweets, Musk noted that Tesla is releasing inventory, display, and test drive vehicles for purchase. Musk even noted in a recent tweet that these vehicles, as well as cars that belonged to reservation holders who couldn’t take delivery before the year ended, would cost less. The bold CEO further added that orders for the Mid Range Model 3 should be delivered by the year’s end.
Perhaps most notable, though, was an announcement that Musk recently made about the $7,500 federal tax credit. When asked by a Mid Range Model 3 reservation holder what would happen if an order is not fulfilled before the end of December, Musk noted that Tesla would cover the tax credit difference.
If Tesla committed delivery & customer made good faith efforts to receive before year end, Tesla will cover the tax credit difference
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) December 22, 2018
While Tesla is making progress on its US facilities and deliveries, the company is already laying the foundations for an even more aggressive ramp next year. In Europe, for example, reports have emerged that Tesla is preparing to ship 3,000 Model 3 per week for the region. The rollout of CCS-compatible Superchargers for the Model 3 have also begun. On the other side of the world, Gigafactory 3 in China continues to take shape, with local reports stating that the facility is progressing “one year ahead of schedule.”
Watch the Lathrop facility’s latest drone flyover in the video below.
Investor's Corner
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) received fresh support from Piper Sandler this week after analysts toured the Fremont Factory and tested the company’s latest Full Self-Driving software. The firm reaffirmed its $500 price target, stating that FSD V14 delivered a notably smooth robotaxi demonstration and may already perform at levels comparable to, if not better than, average human drivers.
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Analysts highlight autonomy progress
During more than 75 minutes of focused discussions, analysts reportedly focused on FSD v14’s updates. Piper Sandler’s team pointed to meaningful strides in perception, object handling, and overall ride smoothness during the robotaxi demo.
The visit also included discussions on updates to Tesla’s in-house chip initiatives, its Optimus program, and the growth of the company’s battery storage business. Analysts noted that Tesla continues refining cost structures and capital expenditure expectations, which are key elements in future margin recovery, as noted in a Yahoo Finance report.
Analyst Alexander Potter noted that “we think FSD is a truly impressive product that is (probably) already better at driving than the average American.” This conclusion was strengthened by what he described as a “flawless robotaxi ride to the hotel.”
Street targets diverge on TSLA
While Piper Sandler stands by its $500 target, it is not the highest estimate on the Street. Wedbush, for one, has a $600 per share price target for TSLA stock.
Other institutions have also weighed in on TSLA stock as of late. HSBC reiterated a Reduce rating with a $131 target, citing a gap between earnings fundamentals and the company’s market value. By contrast, TD Cowen maintained a Buy rating and a $509 target, pointing to strong autonomous driving demonstrations in Austin and the pace of software-driven improvements.
Stifel analysts also lifted their price target for Tesla to $508 per share over the company’s ongoing robotaxi and FSD programs.
Investor's Corner
Tesla wins $508 price target from Stifel as Robotaxi rollout gains speed
The firm cited meaningful progress in Tesla’s robotaxi roadmap, ongoing Full Self-Driving enhancements, and the company’s long-term growth initiatives.
Tesla received another round of bullish analyst updates this week, led by Stifel, raising its price target to $508 from $483 while reaffirming a “Buy” rating. The firm cited meaningful progress in Tesla’s robotaxi roadmap, ongoing Full Self-Driving enhancements, and the company’s long-term growth initiatives.
Robotaxi rollout, FSD updates, and new affordable cars
Stifel expects Tesla’s robotaxi fleet to expand into 8–10 major metropolitan areas by the end of 2025, including Austin, where early deployments without safety drivers are targeted before year-end. Additional markets under evaluation include Nevada, Florida, and Arizona, as noted in an Investing.com report. The firm also highlighted strong early performance for FSD Version 14, with upcoming releases adding new “reasoning capabilities” designed to improve complex decision-making using full 360-degree vision.
Tesla has also taken steps to offset the loss of U.S. EV tax credits by launching the Model Y Standard and Model 3 Standard at $39,990 and $36,990, Stifel noted. Both vehicles deliver more than 300 miles of range and are positioned to sustain demand despite shifting incentives. Stifel raised its EBITDA forecasts to $14.9 billion for 2025 and $19.5 billion for 2026, assigning partial valuation weightings to Tesla’s FSD, robotaxi, and Optimus initiatives.
TD Cowen also places an optimistic price target
TD Cowen reiterated its Buy rating with a $509 price target after a research tour of Giga Texas, citing production scale and operational execution as key strengths. The firm posted its optimistic price target following a recent Mobility Bus tour in Austin. The tour included a visit to Giga Texas, which offered fresh insights into the company’s operations and prospects.
Additional analyst movements include Truist Securities maintaining its Hold rating following shareholder approval of Elon Musk’s compensation plan, viewing the vote as reducing leadership uncertainty.
@teslarati Tesla Full Self-Driving yields for pedestrians while human drivers do not…the future is here! #tesla #teslafsd #fullselfdriving ♬ 2 Little 2 Late – Levi & Mario
Investor's Corner
Tesla receives major institutional boost with Nomura’s rising stake
The move makes Tesla Nomura’s 10th-largest holding at about 1% of its entire portfolio.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) has gained fresh institutional support, with Nomura Asset Management expanding its position in the automaker.
Nomura boosted its Tesla holdings by 4.2%, adding 47,674 shares and bringing its total position to more than 1.17 million shares valued at roughly $373.6 million. The move makes Tesla Nomura’s 10th-largest holding at about 1% of its entire portfolio.
Institutional investors and TSLA
Nomura’s filing was released alongside several other fund updates. Brighton Jones LLC boosted its holdings by 11.8%, as noted in a MarketBeat report, and Revolve Wealth Partners lifted its TSLA position by 21.2%. Bison Wealth increased its Tesla stake by 52.2%, AMG National Trust Bank increased its position in shares of Tesla by 11.8%, and FAS Wealth Partners increased its TSLA holdings by 22.1%. About 66% of all outstanding Tesla shares are now owned by institutional investors.
The buying comes shortly after Tesla reported better-than-expected quarterly earnings, posting $0.50 per share compared with the $0.48 consensus. Revenue reached $28.10 billion, topping Wall Street’s $24.98 billion estimate. Despite the earnings beat, Tesla continues to trade at a steep premium relative to peers, with a market cap hovering around $1.34 trillion and a price-to-earnings ratio near 270.
Recent insider sales
Some Tesla insiders have sold stock as of late. CFO Vaibhav Taneja sold 2,606 shares in early September for just over $918,000, reducing his personal stake by about 21%. Director James R. Murdoch executed a far larger sale, offloading 120,000 shares for roughly $42 million and trimming his holdings by nearly 15%. Over the past three months, Tesla insiders have collectively sold 202,606 shares valued at approximately $75.6 million, as per SEC disclosures.
Tesla is currently entering its next phase of growth, and if it is successful, it could very well become the world’s most valuable company as a result. The company has several high-profile projects expected to be rolled out in the coming years, including Optimus, the humanoid robot, and the Cybercab, an autonomous two-seater with the potential to change the face of roads across the globe.
@teslarati Tesla Full Self-Driving yields for pedestrians while human drivers do not…the future is here! #tesla #teslafsd #fullselfdriving ♬ 2 Little 2 Late – Levi & Mario
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