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(Op-ed) A neutral look at Tesla’s upcoming Q1 2025 vehicle deliveries

Elon Musk affects Tesla, but his impact on the company’s raw vehicle sales may not be as notable as critics would suggest.

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Credit: Tesla China

Tesla is such a volatile topic for many that it’s difficult to get a neutral image of the company and its fundamentals today. A look at Tesla news coverage shows this, as even dedicated electric vehicle blogs and tech publications seem to find it difficult to separate Tesla from Elon Musk, who is more polarizing than ever.

This is what I aim to cover in this op-ed. I will be exploring Tesla’s first quarter vehicle deliveries, why they might be underwhelming, the reasons behind them, and why I believe the sky is not necessarily falling. 

A likely miss

Analyst consensus for Tesla’s Q1 2025 deliveries currently stands at 418,000 vehicles. That would suggest a year-over-year improvement of 8.06% from the 386,810 vehicles that Tesla was able to deliver in the first quarter of 2024. Considering Tesla’s sales in China and Europe over January and February, 418,000 deliveries seem to be a long shot for the first quarter of 2025.

It would not be surprising at all if Tesla ends up missing Wall Street’s consensus estimates, and by a pretty wide margin. Such is expected considering Tesla’s focus in the first quarter. But what is this focus, really? Elon Musk’s politics? Not necessarily.

A Model Y-shaped hole

Critics and negative Tesla news coverage would argue that the company’s steep drop in sales in several European markets and China is a sign that the company is finished, or that Elon Musk is doing global damage to the Tesla brand. However, Tesla’s sales decline this Q1 may actually be affected in no small part by the company’s transition from the Model Y classic to the new Model Y, which was launched across the United States, China, and Germany.

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The Model Y is Tesla’s strongest seller, and it comprises a huge portion of the company’s deliveries every quarter. Considering that the Model Y classic quite literally became the world’s best-selling vehicle by volume in 2023 and 2024, it would not be an exaggeration to state that Tesla’s deliveries have been greatly carried by the all-electric crossover. What would happen then if Tesla implements a transition to the Model Y’s new version across its factories worldwide? Raw Model Y deliveries will go down, at least until Tesla starts deliveries of the revamped all-electric crossover. This is exactly what seems to be happening in China. 

A look at Tesla China’s numbers from January and February will show that the company saw fewer registrations this year compared to last year. However, vehicle registrations have since picked up with the start of the new Model Y’s domestic deliveries. Similar trends may emerge in the United States and Europe, as well as territories supplied by Giga Shanghai, Giga Texas, the Fremont Factory, and Giga Berlin.

The Elon Musk factor

There is no doubt that Elon Musk is at his most polarizing today, but to credit Tesla’s low deliveries to the CEO’s political antics is very shortsighted. Yes, Elon Musk affects Tesla, but his impact on the company’s raw vehicle sales may not be as notable as critics would suggest. This could be seen in the results of a poll from German publication t-online, which initially concluded that 94% of Germans won’t buy a Tesla anymore. As it turned out, the survey would end up painting the complete opposite picture once more respondents took the poll. With more than 467,000 respondents on the survey, over 70% stated that they would buy a Tesla.

To state that Elon Musk’s political actions are not adversely affecting Tesla’s appeal to some consumers would not be accurate. There are evidently people who will not be purchasing a Tesla due to Elon Musk and his work with the Trump administration. The impact of the Musk factor, however, may not be as drastic as Tesla critics would suggest. It would not, for example, result in 94% of car buyers suddenly swearing off Tesla. The vast majority of consumers, after all, generally gravitate to the best products in the market, period. Assuming that this is true for most consumers today, Tesla’s vehicles definitely still have a fighting chance this year.

In conclusion

Considering Wall Street’s 418,000 vehicle delivery consensus, it almost seems certain that Tesla will miss this estimate by a notable margin. This would likely result in a wave of reports alleging that demand is drying up worldwide or Musk has completely tanked the brand’s appeal to consumers. With the new Model Y now starting its deliveries across the globe, however, Tesla’s real performance and a clearer view of Musk’s effect on the company’s demand, would likely become more evident in the coming quarters.

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Simon is an experienced automotive reporter with a passion for electric cars and clean energy. Fascinated by the world envisioned by Elon Musk, he hopes to make it to Mars (at least as a tourist) someday. For stories or tips--or even to just say a simple hello--send a message to his email, simon@teslarati.com or his handle on X, @ResidentSponge.

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Neuralink Blindsight human trials expected to start in the UAE

Neuralink aims to restore vision with its Blindsight BCI implant. First human implant for Blindsight may happen in UAE.

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(Credit: Neuralink)

During Elon Musk’s interview at the Qatar Economic Forum, he announced that Neuralink aims to implant its Blindsight brain-to-computer interface (BCI) device in a human patient by late 2025 or early 2026.

Blindsight focuses on restoring vision. A few years ago, Musk mentioned that Neuralink’s BCI devices would restore vision for people, even those born blind.

“The first two applications we’re going to aim for in humans are restoring vision, and I think this is notable in that even if someone has never had vision ever, like they were born blind, we believe we can still restore vision. The visual part of the cortex is still there. Even if they’ve never seen before, we’re confident they could see,” Musk said during Neuralink’s Show & Tell in 2022. 

Musk said Blindsight could be implanted into a human patient in the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Neuralink plans to partner with the Cleveland Clinic Abu Dhabi to implant the first human patient with Blindsight.

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Elon Musk’s neurotechnology company is partnering with the Cleveland Clinic Abu Dhabi to conduct the first clinical trial of the UAE-PRIME study. Like Neuralink’s PRIME study in the United States, UAE-PRIME will focus on human patients with motor and speech impairments.

Neuralink received Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approval to conduct the PRIME and CONVOY studies in the United States. PRIME tests the capabilities of the company’s Link implant to restore or enable motor and speech in participants. Meanwhile, the CONVOY study explores Link’s ability to control assistive robotic devices. Neuralink already has an assistive robotic arm called ARA that could expand patients’ autonomy beyond smart devices.

Blindsight would probably require a separate study from PRIME and CONVOY. As such, Neuralink might need FDA approval in the United States to start human trials for Blindsight. However, Blindsight already received a “breakthrough device” designation from the US FDA.

In April 2025, Neuralink opened its patient registry to participants worldwide. The neurotechnology company has already implanted its Link BCI device into five patients. Earlier this year, Neuralink welcomed one of its first PRIME study participants as the first patient in its CONVOY study.

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Elon Musk just revealed more about Tesla’s June Robotaxi launch

Tesla CEO Elon Musk gave more information about the Robotaxi launch in Austin set for June.

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Steve Jurvetson, CC BY 2.0 , via Wikimedia Commons

Tesla CEO Elon Musk just revealed more details about the company’s June Robotaxi launch, which will kick off in Austin.

As of right now, Tesla is still set to push out the first Robotaxi rides in Austin, Texas, in early June. These vehicles will be in short supply at first, as Musk says the company is purposely rolling out the fleet in a slow and controlled fashion to prioritize safety. There will be ten vehicles in the Robotaxi fleet to start.

Tesla Robotaxi deemed a total failure by media — even though it hasn’t been released

However, in an interview with CNBC on Tuesday afternoon, Musk also revealed some other new details, including where in Austin the vehicles will be able to go, how many Robotaxis we could see on public roads within a few months, and other information regarding Tesla’s Full Self-Driving suite.

A Controlled Rollout

Tesla has maintained for a few months now that the Robotaxi fleet will be comprised of between 10 and 20 Model Y vehicles in Austin.

The Cybercab, which was unveiled by the company last October, will not be available initially, as those cars will likely be produced in 2026.

Musk said during the CNBC interview that Tesla is doing a low-yield trial at first to initiate a safety-first mentality. It is important for Tesla to launch the Robotaxi fleet in a small manner to keep things in check, at least at first.

As confidence builds and the accuracy of the fleet is ensured, more vehicles will be added to the fleet.

Musk believes there will be 1,000 Robotaxis on the road “in a few months.”

Geofenced to Certain Austin Areas

Tesla will be launching the Robotaxi program in a geofenced fashion that gives the company the ability to control where it goes. Musk says that the areas the Robotaxis will be able to travel to are among the safest neighborhoods and areas in Austin.

This is yet another safety protocol that will ensure the initial riders are not put in dangerous neighborhoods.

Some might be disappointed to hear this because of Tesla’s spoken confidence regarding Robotaxi, but the initial rollout does need to be controlled for safety reasons. An accident or incident of any kind that would put riders’ lives in danger would be catastrophic.

No Driver, No Problem

As the company has rolled out an employee-only version of the Robotaxi program in Austin and the San Francisco Bay Area, some wondered whether the rides would be driverless, as these initial trials for Tesla workers were not. Employee rides featured a human in the driver’s seat to ensure safety.

Tesla says it has launched ride-hailing Robotaxi teaser to employees only

The company did not report whether there were any interventions or not, but it did state that the vehicles traveled over 15,000 miles through 1,500 trips.

Musk confirmed during the interview that there will be no driver in the vehicle when the Robotaxi program launches in June. This will be groundbreaking as it will be the first time that Tesla vehicles will operate on public roads without anyone in the driver’s seat.

Full Self-Driving Licensing

For more than a year, Tesla has indicated that it is in talks with another major automaker regarding the licensing of Full Self-Driving. Many speculated that the company was Ford, but neither it nor Tesla confirmed this.

Musk said today that Tesla has been in touch with “a number of automakers” that have inquired about licensing FSD. Tesla has yet to sign any deal to do so.

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Elon Musk on Tesla vehicle sales: “We see no problem with demand”

“The sales numbers at this point are strong, and we see no problem with demand,” Musk said.

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(Credit: Tesla)

During a rather testy interview with Bloomberg’s Mishal Husain at the Qatar Economic Forum, Elon Musk stated that the demand for Tesla’s vehicles is still strong. Musk also stated that the issues that Tesla faced earlier his year have already turned around.

Already Turned Around

Tesla sales saw notable drops in the past months, particularly in Europe, where several countries saw drastically fewer Tesla sales year-over-year. Tesla stated in its Q1 2025 vehicle delivery report that the declines were largely due to the company’s changeover to the new Model Y, but media reports nevertheless placed the blame on Musk’s politics and his work with the Trump administration’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE).

It was then no surprise that Bloomberg’s Husain pointed out Tesla’s low sales in Europe this April during the interview. When questioned about the matter, Musk stated that things have “already turned around.” Musk also noted that while Tesla sales are down in Europe so far, this is true for numerous other carmakers in the region.

No Problem With Demand

When asked for evidence to back up his claims, Musk stated that Europe is indeed Tesla’s weakest market, but the company remains “strong everywhere else.” He also admitted that while Tesla has “lost some sales from the left,” the company also “gained some from the right.” Musk highlighted the fact that Tesla stock, which is partly affected by analysts with insider information, is trading at near all-time highs.

“The sales numbers at this point are strong, and we see no problem with demand. You can just look at the stock price. If you want the best insider information, the stock market analysts have that, and our stock wouldn’t be trading near all-time highs if things weren’t in good shape. They’re fine. Don’t worry about it,” Musk said. 

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Watch Elon Musk’s full interview at the Qatar Economic Forum in the video below.

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