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(Op-ed) A neutral look at Tesla’s upcoming Q1 2025 vehicle deliveries
Elon Musk affects Tesla, but his impact on the company’s raw vehicle sales may not be as notable as critics would suggest.
Tesla is such a volatile topic for many that it’s difficult to get a neutral image of the company and its fundamentals today. A look at Tesla news coverage shows this, as even dedicated electric vehicle blogs and tech publications seem to find it difficult to separate Tesla from Elon Musk, who is more polarizing than ever.
This is what I aim to cover in this op-ed. I will be exploring Tesla’s first quarter vehicle deliveries, why they might be underwhelming, the reasons behind them, and why I believe the sky is not necessarily falling.
A likely miss
Analyst consensus for Tesla’s Q1 2025 deliveries currently stands at 418,000 vehicles. That would suggest a year-over-year improvement of 8.06% from the 386,810 vehicles that Tesla was able to deliver in the first quarter of 2024. Considering Tesla’s sales in China and Europe over January and February, 418,000 deliveries seem to be a long shot for the first quarter of 2025.
It would not be surprising at all if Tesla ends up missing Wall Street’s consensus estimates, and by a pretty wide margin. Such is expected considering Tesla’s focus in the first quarter. But what is this focus, really? Elon Musk’s politics? Not necessarily.
A Model Y-shaped hole
Critics and negative Tesla news coverage would argue that the company’s steep drop in sales in several European markets and China is a sign that the company is finished, or that Elon Musk is doing global damage to the Tesla brand. However, Tesla’s sales decline this Q1 may actually be affected in no small part by the company’s transition from the Model Y classic to the new Model Y, which was launched across the United States, China, and Germany.
The Model Y is Tesla’s strongest seller, and it comprises a huge portion of the company’s deliveries every quarter. Considering that the Model Y classic quite literally became the world’s best-selling vehicle by volume in 2023 and 2024, it would not be an exaggeration to state that Tesla’s deliveries have been greatly carried by the all-electric crossover. What would happen then if Tesla implements a transition to the Model Y’s new version across its factories worldwide? Raw Model Y deliveries will go down, at least until Tesla starts deliveries of the revamped all-electric crossover. This is exactly what seems to be happening in China.
A look at Tesla China’s numbers from January and February will show that the company saw fewer registrations this year compared to last year. However, vehicle registrations have since picked up with the start of the new Model Y’s domestic deliveries. Similar trends may emerge in the United States and Europe, as well as territories supplied by Giga Shanghai, Giga Texas, the Fremont Factory, and Giga Berlin.
The Elon Musk factor
There is no doubt that Elon Musk is at his most polarizing today, but to credit Tesla’s low deliveries to the CEO’s political antics is very shortsighted. Yes, Elon Musk affects Tesla, but his impact on the company’s raw vehicle sales may not be as notable as critics would suggest. This could be seen in the results of a poll from German publication t-online, which initially concluded that 94% of Germans won’t buy a Tesla anymore. As it turned out, the survey would end up painting the complete opposite picture once more respondents took the poll. With more than 467,000 respondents on the survey, over 70% stated that they would buy a Tesla.
To state that Elon Musk’s political actions are not adversely affecting Tesla’s appeal to some consumers would not be accurate. There are evidently people who will not be purchasing a Tesla due to Elon Musk and his work with the Trump administration. The impact of the Musk factor, however, may not be as drastic as Tesla critics would suggest. It would not, for example, result in 94% of car buyers suddenly swearing off Tesla. The vast majority of consumers, after all, generally gravitate to the best products in the market, period. Assuming that this is true for most consumers today, Tesla’s vehicles definitely still have a fighting chance this year.
In conclusion
Considering Wall Street’s 418,000 vehicle delivery consensus, it almost seems certain that Tesla will miss this estimate by a notable margin. This would likely result in a wave of reports alleging that demand is drying up worldwide or Musk has completely tanked the brand’s appeal to consumers. With the new Model Y now starting its deliveries across the globe, however, Tesla’s real performance and a clearer view of Musk’s effect on the company’s demand, would likely become more evident in the coming quarters.
Tesla has landed a massive deal to expand its charging infrastructure for heavy-duty electric trucks — and not just theirs, but all manufacturers.
Tesla entered an agreement with Pilot Travel Centers, the largest operator of travel centers in the United States. Tesla’s Semi Chargers, which are used to charge Class 8 electric trucks, will be responsible for providing energy to various vehicles from a variety of manufacturers.
The first sites are expected to open later this Summer, and will be built at select locations along I-5 and I-10, major routes for commercial vehicles and significant logistics companies. The chargers will be available in California, Georgia, Nevada, New Mexico, and Texas.
Each station will have between four and eight chargers, delivering up to 1.2 megawatts of power at each stall.
The project is the latest in Tesla’s plans to expand Semi Charging availability. The effort is being put forth to create more opportunities for the development of sustainable logistics.
Senior Vice President of Alternative Fuels at Pilot, Shannon Sturgil, said:
“Helping to shape the future of energy is a strategic pillar in meeting the needs of our guests and the North American transportation industry. Heavy-duty charging is yet another extension of our exploration into alternative fuel offerings, and we’re happy to partner with a leader in the space that provides turnkey solutions and deploys them quickly.”
Tesla currently has 46 public Semi Charger sites in progress or planned across the United States, mostly positioned along major trucking routes and industrial areas. Perhaps the biggest bottleneck with owning an EV early on was charging availability, and that is no different with electric Class 8 trucks. They simply need an area to charge.
Tesla is spearheading the effort to expand Semicharging availability, and the latest partnership with Pilot shows the company has allies in the program.
The company plans to build 50,000 units of the Tesla Semi in the coming years, and with early adopters like PepsiCo, DHL, and others already contributing millions of miles of data, fleets are going to need reliable public charging.
🚨 Pilot working with Tesla to install and expand Semi Chargers is a perfect example of two industry leaders working together for the greater good.
As more commerce companies expand into EVs, Semi Charger will be more commonly available for electrified fleets, making efforts… pic.twitter.com/VPLIYyq15b
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) January 27, 2026
Tesla is partnering with other companies for the development of the Semi program, most notably, a conglomeration with Uber was announced last year.
Tesla lands new partnership with Uber as Semi takes center stage
The ride-sharing platform plans to launch the Dedicated EV Fleet Accelerator Program, which it calls a “first-of-its-kind buyer’s program designed to make electric freight more affordable and accessible by addressing key adoption barriers.”
The Semi is one of several projects that will take Tesla into a completely different realm. Along with Optimus and its growing Energy division, the Semi will expand Tesla to new heights, and its prioritization of charging infrastructure.
Elon Musk
Elon Musk’s Boring Company opens Vegas Loop’s newest station
The Fontainebleau is the latest resort on the Las Vegas Strip to embrace the tunneling startup’s underground transportation system.
Elon Musk’s tunneling startup, The Boring Company, has welcomed its newest Vegas Loop station at the Fontainebleau Las Vegas.
The Fontainebleau is the latest resort on the Las Vegas Strip to embrace the tunneling startup’s underground transportation system.
Fontainebleau Loop station
The new Vegas Loop station is located on level V-1 of the Fontainebleau’s south valet area, as noted in a report from the Las Vegas Review-Journal. According to the resort, guests will be able to travel free of charge to the stations serving the Las Vegas Convention Center, as well as to Loop stations in Encore and Westgate.
The Fontainebleau station connects to the Riviera Station, which is located in the northwest parking lot of the convention center’s West Hall. From there, passengers will be able to access the greater Vegas Loop.
Vegas Loop expansion
In December, The Boring Company began offering Vegas Loop rides to and from Harry Reid International Airport. Those trips include a limited above-ground segment, following approval from the Nevada Transportation Authority to allow surface street travel tied to Loop operations.
Under the approval, airport rides are limited to no more than four miles of surface street travel, and each trip must include a tunnel segment. The Vegas Loop currently includes more than 10 miles of tunnels. From this number, about four miles of tunnels are operational.
The Boring Company President Steve Davis previously told the Review-Journal that the University Center Loop segment, which is currently under construction, is expected to open in the first quarter of 2026. That extension would allow Loop vehicles to travel beneath Paradise Road between the convention center and the airport, with a planned station located just north of Tropicana Avenue.
News
Tesla leases new 108k-sq ft R&D facility near Fremont Factory
The lease adds to Tesla’s presence near its primary California manufacturing hub as the company continues investing in autonomy and artificial intelligence.
Tesla has expanded its footprint near its Fremont Factory by leasing a 108,000-square-foot R&D facility in the East Bay.
The lease adds to Tesla’s presence near its primary California manufacturing hub as the company continues investing in autonomy and artificial intelligence.
A new Fremont lease
Tesla will occupy the entire building at 45401 Research Ave. in Fremont, as per real estate services firm Colliers. The transaction stands as the second-largest R&D lease of the fourth quarter, trailing only a roughly 115,000-square-foot transaction by Figure AI in San Jose.
As noted in a Silicon Valley Business Journal report, Tesla’s new Fremont lease was completed with landlord Lincoln Property Co., which owns the facility. Colliers stated that Tesla’s Fremont expansion reflects continued demand from established technology companies that are seeking space for engineering, testing, and specialized manufacturing.
Tesla has not disclosed which of its business units will be occupying the building, though Colliers has described the property as suitable for office and R&D functions. Tesla has not issued a comment about its new Fremont lease as of writing.
AI investments
Silicon Valley remains a key region for automakers as vehicles increasingly rely on software, artificial intelligence, and advanced electronics. Erin Keating, senior director of economics and industry insights at Cox Automotive, has stated that Tesla is among the most aggressive auto companies when it comes to software-driven vehicle development.
Other automakers have also expanded their presence in the area. Rivian operates an autonomy and core technology hub in Palo Alto, while GM maintains an AI center of excellence in Mountain View. Toyota is also relocating its software and autonomy unit to a newly upgraded property in Santa Clara.
Despite these expansions, Colliers has noted that Silicon Valley posted nearly 444,000 square feet of net occupancy losses in Q4 2025, pushing overall vacancy to 11.2%.
Tesla lands massive deal to expand charging for heavy-duty electric trucks
Elon Musk’s Boring Company opens Vegas Loop’s newest station
