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(Op-ed) A neutral look at Tesla’s upcoming Q1 2025 vehicle deliveries
Elon Musk affects Tesla, but his impact on the company’s raw vehicle sales may not be as notable as critics would suggest.
Tesla is such a volatile topic for many that it’s difficult to get a neutral image of the company and its fundamentals today. A look at Tesla news coverage shows this, as even dedicated electric vehicle blogs and tech publications seem to find it difficult to separate Tesla from Elon Musk, who is more polarizing than ever.
This is what I aim to cover in this op-ed. I will be exploring Tesla’s first quarter vehicle deliveries, why they might be underwhelming, the reasons behind them, and why I believe the sky is not necessarily falling.
A likely miss
Analyst consensus for Tesla’s Q1 2025 deliveries currently stands at 418,000 vehicles. That would suggest a year-over-year improvement of 8.06% from the 386,810 vehicles that Tesla was able to deliver in the first quarter of 2024. Considering Tesla’s sales in China and Europe over January and February, 418,000 deliveries seem to be a long shot for the first quarter of 2025.
It would not be surprising at all if Tesla ends up missing Wall Street’s consensus estimates, and by a pretty wide margin. Such is expected considering Tesla’s focus in the first quarter. But what is this focus, really? Elon Musk’s politics? Not necessarily.
A Model Y-shaped hole
Critics and negative Tesla news coverage would argue that the company’s steep drop in sales in several European markets and China is a sign that the company is finished, or that Elon Musk is doing global damage to the Tesla brand. However, Tesla’s sales decline this Q1 may actually be affected in no small part by the company’s transition from the Model Y classic to the new Model Y, which was launched across the United States, China, and Germany.
The Model Y is Tesla’s strongest seller, and it comprises a huge portion of the company’s deliveries every quarter. Considering that the Model Y classic quite literally became the world’s best-selling vehicle by volume in 2023 and 2024, it would not be an exaggeration to state that Tesla’s deliveries have been greatly carried by the all-electric crossover. What would happen then if Tesla implements a transition to the Model Y’s new version across its factories worldwide? Raw Model Y deliveries will go down, at least until Tesla starts deliveries of the revamped all-electric crossover. This is exactly what seems to be happening in China.
A look at Tesla China’s numbers from January and February will show that the company saw fewer registrations this year compared to last year. However, vehicle registrations have since picked up with the start of the new Model Y’s domestic deliveries. Similar trends may emerge in the United States and Europe, as well as territories supplied by Giga Shanghai, Giga Texas, the Fremont Factory, and Giga Berlin.
The Elon Musk factor
There is no doubt that Elon Musk is at his most polarizing today, but to credit Tesla’s low deliveries to the CEO’s political antics is very shortsighted. Yes, Elon Musk affects Tesla, but his impact on the company’s raw vehicle sales may not be as notable as critics would suggest. This could be seen in the results of a poll from German publication t-online, which initially concluded that 94% of Germans won’t buy a Tesla anymore. As it turned out, the survey would end up painting the complete opposite picture once more respondents took the poll. With more than 467,000 respondents on the survey, over 70% stated that they would buy a Tesla.
To state that Elon Musk’s political actions are not adversely affecting Tesla’s appeal to some consumers would not be accurate. There are evidently people who will not be purchasing a Tesla due to Elon Musk and his work with the Trump administration. The impact of the Musk factor, however, may not be as drastic as Tesla critics would suggest. It would not, for example, result in 94% of car buyers suddenly swearing off Tesla. The vast majority of consumers, after all, generally gravitate to the best products in the market, period. Assuming that this is true for most consumers today, Tesla’s vehicles definitely still have a fighting chance this year.
In conclusion
Considering Wall Street’s 418,000 vehicle delivery consensus, it almost seems certain that Tesla will miss this estimate by a notable margin. This would likely result in a wave of reports alleging that demand is drying up worldwide or Musk has completely tanked the brand’s appeal to consumers. With the new Model Y now starting its deliveries across the globe, however, Tesla’s real performance and a clearer view of Musk’s effect on the company’s demand, would likely become more evident in the coming quarters.
Elon Musk
SpaceX secures win as US labor board drops oversight case
The NLRB confirmed that it no longer has jurisdiction over SpaceX.
SpaceX scored a legal victory after the National Labor Relations Board (NLRB) decided to dismiss a case which accused the company of terminating engineers who were involved in an open letter against founder Elon Musk.
The NLRB confirmed that it no longer has jurisdiction over SpaceX. The update was initially shared by Bloomberg News, which cited a letter about the matter it reportedly reviewed.
In a letter to the former employees’ lawyers, the labor board stated that the affected employees were under the jurisdiction of the National Mediation Board (NMB), not the NLRB. As a result, the labor board stated that it was dismissing the case.
As per Danielle Pierce, a regional director of the agency, “the National Labor Relations Board lacks jurisdiction over the Employer and, therefore, I am dismissing your charge.”
The NMB typically oversees airlines and railroads. The NLRB, on the other hand, covers most private-sector employers, as well as manufacturers such as Boeing.
The former SpaceX engineers have argued that the private space company did not belong under the NMB’s jurisdiction because SpaceX only offers services to “hand-picked customers.”
In an opinion, however, the NMB stated that SpaceX was under its jurisdiction because “space transport includes air travel” to get to outer space. The mediation board also noted that anyone can contact SpaceX to secure its services.
SpaceX had previously challenged the NLRB’s authority in court, arguing that the agency’s structure was unconstitutional. Jennifer Abruzzo, the NLRB general counsel under former United States President Joe Biden, rejected SpaceX’s claims. Following Abruzzo’s termination under the Trump administration, however, SpaceX asked the labor board to reconsider its arguments.
SpaceX is not the only company that has challenged the constitutionality of the NLRB. Since SpaceX filed its legal challenge against the agency in 2024, other high-profile companies have followed suit. These include Amazon, which has filed similar cases that are now pending.
News
Tesla accuses IG Metall member of secretly recording Giga Berlin meeting
The union has denied the electric vehicle maker’s allegations.
Police seized the computer of an IG Metall member at Tesla Giga Berlin on Tuesday amid allegations that a works council meeting was secretly recorded.
The union has denied the electric vehicle maker’s allegations.
In a post on X, Gigafactory Berlin plant manager André Thierig stated that an external union representative from IG Metall attended a works council meeting and allegedly recorded the session. Thierig described the event as “truly beyond words.”
“What has happened today at Giga Berlin is truly beyond words! An external union representative from IG Metall attended a works council meeting. For unknown reasons he recorded the internal meeting and was caught in action! We obviously called police and filed a criminal complaint!” Thierig wrote in his post on X.
Police later confirmed to local news outlet rbb24 that officers did seize a computer belonging to an IG Metall member at the Giga Berlin site on Tuesday afternoon. Tesla stated that employees had contacted authorities after discovering the alleged recording.
IG Metall denied Tesla’s accusations, arguing that its representative did not record the meeting. The union alleged that Tesla’s claim was simply a tactic ahead of upcoming works council elections.
The next works council election at Giga Berlin is scheduled for March 2 to 4, 2026. The facility’s management had confirmed the dates to local news outlets. The official announcement marks the start of the election process and campaign period.
Approximately 11,000 employees are eligible to participate in the vote.
The previous works council election at the plant took place in 2024, and it was triggered by a notable increase in workforce size. Under German labor law, regular works council elections must be held every four years between March 1 and May 31.
Elon Musk
Elon Musk’s xAI plants flag in Bellevue AI hotspot
The lease places xAI’s new office in one of the region’s fastest-growing tech hubs.
Elon Musk’s artificial intelligence company xAI has leased a full floor at Lincoln Square South in downtown Bellevue, WA, as per city permit filings.
The lease places xAI’s new office in one of the region’s fastest-growing tech hubs.
Public records indicate that xAI leased roughly 24,800 square feet in Lincoln Square South. The location was previously occupied by video game company Epic Games. Lincoln Square South is part of the Bellevue Collection, which is owned by Kemper Development Co.
The lease was first referenced in January by commercial real estate firm Broderick Group, which noted that an unnamed tenant had secured the space, as stated in a report from the Puget Sound Business Journal. Later filings identified xAI as the occupant for the space.
xAI has not publicly commented on the lease.
xAI hinted at plans to open an office in the Seattle area back in September, when the startup posted job openings with salaries ranging from $180,000 to $440,000. At the time, the company had narrowed its location search to cities on the Eastside but had not finalized a lease.
xAI’s Bellevue expansion comes as Musk continues consolidating his businesses. Last week, SpaceX acquired xAI in a deal that valued the artificial intelligence startup at $250 billion. SpaceX itself is now valued at roughly $1.25 trillion and is expected to pursue an initial public offering (IPO) later this year.
Musk already has a significant presence in the region through SpaceX, which employs about 2,000 workers locally. That initiative, however, is focused largely on Starlink satellite development.
Bellevue has increasingly become a center for artificial intelligence companies. OpenAI has expanded its local office footprint to nearly 300,000 square feet. Data infrastructure firms such as Crusoe and CoreWeave have also established offices downtown.
SpaceX secures win as US labor board drops oversight case
Tesla accuses IG Metall member of secretly recording Giga Berlin meeting
