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(Op-ed) A neutral look at Tesla’s upcoming Q1 2025 vehicle deliveries

Elon Musk affects Tesla, but his impact on the company’s raw vehicle sales may not be as notable as critics would suggest.

Published

6 months ago

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Credit: Tesla China

Tesla is such a volatile topic for many that it’s difficult to get a neutral image of the company and its fundamentals today. A look at Tesla news coverage shows this, as even dedicated electric vehicle blogs and tech publications seem to find it difficult to separate Tesla from Elon Musk, who is more polarizing than ever.

This is what I aim to cover in this op-ed. I will be exploring Tesla’s first quarter vehicle deliveries, why they might be underwhelming, the reasons behind them, and why I believe the sky is not necessarily falling. 

A likely miss

Analyst consensus for Tesla’s Q1 2025 deliveries currently stands at 418,000 vehicles. That would suggest a year-over-year improvement of 8.06% from the 386,810 vehicles that Tesla was able to deliver in the first quarter of 2024. Considering Tesla’s sales in China and Europe over January and February, 418,000 deliveries seem to be a long shot for the first quarter of 2025.

It would not be surprising at all if Tesla ends up missing Wall Street’s consensus estimates, and by a pretty wide margin. Such is expected considering Tesla’s focus in the first quarter. But what is this focus, really? Elon Musk’s politics? Not necessarily.

A Model Y-shaped hole

Critics and negative Tesla news coverage would argue that the company’s steep drop in sales in several European markets and China is a sign that the company is finished, or that Elon Musk is doing global damage to the Tesla brand. However, Tesla’s sales decline this Q1 may actually be affected in no small part by the company’s transition from the Model Y classic to the new Model Y, which was launched across the United States, China, and Germany.

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The Model Y is Tesla’s strongest seller, and it comprises a huge portion of the company’s deliveries every quarter. Considering that the Model Y classic quite literally became the world’s best-selling vehicle by volume in 2023 and 2024, it would not be an exaggeration to state that Tesla’s deliveries have been greatly carried by the all-electric crossover. What would happen then if Tesla implements a transition to the Model Y’s new version across its factories worldwide? Raw Model Y deliveries will go down, at least until Tesla starts deliveries of the revamped all-electric crossover. This is exactly what seems to be happening in China. 

A look at Tesla China’s numbers from January and February will show that the company saw fewer registrations this year compared to last year. However, vehicle registrations have since picked up with the start of the new Model Y’s domestic deliveries. Similar trends may emerge in the United States and Europe, as well as territories supplied by Giga Shanghai, Giga Texas, the Fremont Factory, and Giga Berlin.

The Elon Musk factor

There is no doubt that Elon Musk is at his most polarizing today, but to credit Tesla’s low deliveries to the CEO’s political antics is very shortsighted. Yes, Elon Musk affects Tesla, but his impact on the company’s raw vehicle sales may not be as notable as critics would suggest. This could be seen in the results of a poll from German publication t-online, which initially concluded that 94% of Germans won’t buy a Tesla anymore. As it turned out, the survey would end up painting the complete opposite picture once more respondents took the poll. With more than 467,000 respondents on the survey, over 70% stated that they would buy a Tesla.

To state that Elon Musk’s political actions are not adversely affecting Tesla’s appeal to some consumers would not be accurate. There are evidently people who will not be purchasing a Tesla due to Elon Musk and his work with the Trump administration. The impact of the Musk factor, however, may not be as drastic as Tesla critics would suggest. It would not, for example, result in 94% of car buyers suddenly swearing off Tesla. The vast majority of consumers, after all, generally gravitate to the best products in the market, period. Assuming that this is true for most consumers today, Tesla’s vehicles definitely still have a fighting chance this year.

In conclusion

Considering Wall Street’s 418,000 vehicle delivery consensus, it almost seems certain that Tesla will miss this estimate by a notable margin. This would likely result in a wave of reports alleging that demand is drying up worldwide or Musk has completely tanked the brand’s appeal to consumers. With the new Model Y now starting its deliveries across the globe, however, Tesla’s real performance and a clearer view of Musk’s effect on the company’s demand, would likely become more evident in the coming quarters.

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Simon is an experienced automotive reporter with a passion for electric cars and clean energy. Fascinated by the world envisioned by Elon Musk, he hopes to make it to Mars (at least as a tourist) someday. For stories or tips--or even to just say a simple hello--send a message to his email, simon@teslarati.com or his handle on X, @ResidentSponge.

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Tesla lands regulatory green light for Robotaxi testing in new state

This will be the third state in total where Tesla is operating Robotaxi, following Austin and California.

Published

14 hours ago

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September 11, 2025

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla has landed a regulatory green light to test its Robotaxi platform in a new state, less than three months after the ride-hailing service launched in Texas.

Tesla first launched its driverless Robotaxi suite in Austin, Texas, back on June 22. Initially offering rides to a small group of people, Tesla kept things limited, but this was not to be the mentality for very long.

It continued to expand the rider population, the service area, and the vehicle fleet in Austin.

The company also launched rides in the Bay Area, but it does use a person in the driver’s seat to maintain safety. In Austin, the “Safety Monitor” is present in the passenger’s seat during local rides, and in the driver’s seat for routes that involve highway driving.

Tesla is currently testing the Robotaxi platform in other states. We reported that it was testing in Tempe, Arizona, as validation vehicles are traveling around the city in preparation for Robotaxi.

Tesla looks to make a big splash with Robotaxi in a new market

Tesla is also hoping to launch in Florida and New York, as job postings have shown the company’s intention to operate there.

However, it appears it will launch in Nevada before those states, as the company submitted its application to obtain a Testing Registry certification on September 3. It was processed by the state’s Department of Motor Vehicles Office of Business Licensing on September 10.

It will then need to self-certify for operations, essentially meaning they will need to comply with various state requirements.

This will be the third state in total where Tesla is operating Robotaxi, following Austin and California.

CEO Elon Musk has stated that he believes Robotaxi will be available to at least half of the U.S. population by the end of the year. Geographically, Tesla will need to make incredible strides over the final four months of the year to achieve this.

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Tesla is improving this critical feature in older vehicles

Published

17 hours ago

on

September 11, 2025

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla is set to improve a critical feature that has not been present in older vehicles with a new update.

Tesla vehicles feature a comprehensive suite of driver assistance features, some of which aid in driving itself, while others support the vehicle’s surroundings.

One of those features is that of Driver Visualization, and with the rollout of a new update, owners of Intel-based Tesla vehicles are receiving an upgrade that will come with a simple software update.

Tesla plans to use Unreal Engine for driver visualization with crazy upgrade

The update will provide new visualizations while Intel-based vehicles are in reverse, a feature that was not previously available, but will be with Software Update 2025.32.2.

The improvement was spotted by Not a Tesla App via TheBeatYT_evil:

Previously, vehicles Tesla built were equipped with Intel-based processors, but newer cars feature the AMD chip, which is capable of rendering these visualizations as they happen. They were capable of visualizations when driving forward, but not in reverse, which is what this change resolves.

It is a good sign for those with Intel-based vehicles, as Tesla seems to be paying attention to what those cars are not capable of and improving them.

This was an undocumented improvement associated with this particular update, so you will not find any mention of it in the release notes that Tesla distributes with each update.

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Tesla looks to make a big splash with Robotaxi in a new market

Tesla has been transparent that it is prioritizing safety, but it believes it can expand to basically any geographical location within the United States and find success with its Robotaxi suite. CEO Elon Musk said it could be available to half of the U.S. population by the end of the year.

Published

18 hours ago

on

September 11, 2025

By

Credit: Joe Tegtmeyer | X

Tesla is looking to make a big splash with Robotaxi in a new market, as the company was spotted testing validation vehicles in one region where it has not yet launched its ride-hailing service.

After launching Robotaxi in Austin in late June, Tesla followed up with a relatively quick expansion to the Bay Area of California. Both service areas are operating with a geofence that is expansive: In Texas, it is 173 square miles, while in the Bay Area, it is roughly 400 square miles.

Tesla has been transparent that it is prioritizing safety, but it believes it can expand to basically any geographical location within the United States and find success with its Robotaxi suite. CEO Elon Musk said it could be available to half of the U.S. population by the end of the year.

There have been plenty of reports out there that have speculated as to where Tesla would land next to test Robotaxi, and Nevada, Florida, Arizona, and New York have all been in the realm of possibility. These regions will need to approve Tesla for regulatory purposes before Robotaxi can officially operate.

Tesla is still testing and performing validation in several regions, and in Tempe, Arizona, things are moving forward as a Model Y with a LiDAR rig was spotted performing ground truth for the platform:

With the LiDAR unit, many followers of the self-driving and autonomy space might wonder why Tesla uses these apparatuses during validation, especially considering the company’s stance and vision-based approach.

LiDAR is used for “ground truth,” which is basically a solidification or confirmation of what the cameras on the car are seeing. It is a great way to essentially confirm the accuracy of the vision-based suite, and will not be used on Robotaxi units used within the ride-hailing suite.

The Robotaxi platform was made available to the public earlier this month, as Tesla launched its app for iOS users.

Tesla Robotaxi app download rate demolishes Uber, Waymo all-time highs

Downloading the app allows you to join a waitlist, giving you the opportunity to utilize and test the Robotaxi platform in either Austin or the Bay Area.

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