News
(Op-ed) A neutral look at Tesla’s upcoming Q1 2025 vehicle deliveries
Elon Musk affects Tesla, but his impact on the company’s raw vehicle sales may not be as notable as critics would suggest.
Tesla is such a volatile topic for many that it’s difficult to get a neutral image of the company and its fundamentals today. A look at Tesla news coverage shows this, as even dedicated electric vehicle blogs and tech publications seem to find it difficult to separate Tesla from Elon Musk, who is more polarizing than ever.
This is what I aim to cover in this op-ed. I will be exploring Tesla’s first quarter vehicle deliveries, why they might be underwhelming, the reasons behind them, and why I believe the sky is not necessarily falling.
A likely miss
Analyst consensus for Tesla’s Q1 2025 deliveries currently stands at 418,000 vehicles. That would suggest a year-over-year improvement of 8.06% from the 386,810 vehicles that Tesla was able to deliver in the first quarter of 2024. Considering Tesla’s sales in China and Europe over January and February, 418,000 deliveries seem to be a long shot for the first quarter of 2025.
It would not be surprising at all if Tesla ends up missing Wall Street’s consensus estimates, and by a pretty wide margin. Such is expected considering Tesla’s focus in the first quarter. But what is this focus, really? Elon Musk’s politics? Not necessarily.
A Model Y-shaped hole
Critics and negative Tesla news coverage would argue that the company’s steep drop in sales in several European markets and China is a sign that the company is finished, or that Elon Musk is doing global damage to the Tesla brand. However, Tesla’s sales decline this Q1 may actually be affected in no small part by the company’s transition from the Model Y classic to the new Model Y, which was launched across the United States, China, and Germany.
-->The Model Y is Tesla’s strongest seller, and it comprises a huge portion of the company’s deliveries every quarter. Considering that the Model Y classic quite literally became the world’s best-selling vehicle by volume in 2023 and 2024, it would not be an exaggeration to state that Tesla’s deliveries have been greatly carried by the all-electric crossover. What would happen then if Tesla implements a transition to the Model Y’s new version across its factories worldwide? Raw Model Y deliveries will go down, at least until Tesla starts deliveries of the revamped all-electric crossover. This is exactly what seems to be happening in China.
A look at Tesla China’s numbers from January and February will show that the company saw fewer registrations this year compared to last year. However, vehicle registrations have since picked up with the start of the new Model Y’s domestic deliveries. Similar trends may emerge in the United States and Europe, as well as territories supplied by Giga Shanghai, Giga Texas, the Fremont Factory, and Giga Berlin.
The Elon Musk factor
There is no doubt that Elon Musk is at his most polarizing today, but to credit Tesla’s low deliveries to the CEO’s political antics is very shortsighted. Yes, Elon Musk affects Tesla, but his impact on the company’s raw vehicle sales may not be as notable as critics would suggest. This could be seen in the results of a poll from German publication t-online, which initially concluded that 94% of Germans won’t buy a Tesla anymore. As it turned out, the survey would end up painting the complete opposite picture once more respondents took the poll. With more than 467,000 respondents on the survey, over 70% stated that they would buy a Tesla.
To state that Elon Musk’s political actions are not adversely affecting Tesla’s appeal to some consumers would not be accurate. There are evidently people who will not be purchasing a Tesla due to Elon Musk and his work with the Trump administration. The impact of the Musk factor, however, may not be as drastic as Tesla critics would suggest. It would not, for example, result in 94% of car buyers suddenly swearing off Tesla. The vast majority of consumers, after all, generally gravitate to the best products in the market, period. Assuming that this is true for most consumers today, Tesla’s vehicles definitely still have a fighting chance this year.
In conclusion
Considering Wall Street’s 418,000 vehicle delivery consensus, it almost seems certain that Tesla will miss this estimate by a notable margin. This would likely result in a wave of reports alleging that demand is drying up worldwide or Musk has completely tanked the brand’s appeal to consumers. With the new Model Y now starting its deliveries across the globe, however, Tesla’s real performance and a clearer view of Musk’s effect on the company’s demand, would likely become more evident in the coming quarters.
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News
Tesla Model 3 and Model Y named top car buys in Norway
Despite growing competition from European and Korean brands, both models stood out for their balance of price, performance, and everyday usability.
Norway’s annual roundup of the best car purchases featured Tesla’s two main sellers this year, with the Model 3 and Model Y securing top positions in their respective segments.
Despite growing competition from European and Korean brands, both models stood out for their balance of price, performance, and everyday usability. The verdict comes as electric vehicle adoption remained above 95% of new vehicle sales in the country.
Tesla Model 3 strengthens its value position
Among compact EVs, the Tesla Model 3 maintained its position as the best overall buy thanks to its strong blend of performance, efficiency, and updated features. Reviewers noted that every trim offered compelling value, especially with the all-electric sedan’s improved cabin ergonomics and the return of the turn-signal stalk, which was one of the few previous complaints among drivers.
The Model 3’s mix of long-range capability, low operating costs, and responsive handling has continued to set the benchmark for compact EVs in Norway. While competitors from Hyundai, Volkswagen, and Peugeot have narrowed the gap, Tesla’s price-to-capability ratio has remained difficult to beat in this segment, Motor.no reported.
“The Model 3 clearly offers the best value for money in the compact class, no matter which version you choose. Now it also gets the turn signal lever back. This eliminates one of the few flaws in a driving environment that many believe is the best on the market,” the publication wrote.
-->Tesla Model Y claims its crown
The Tesla Model Y emerged as Norway’s top family-car purchase this year. The latest refresh introduced improvements in ride quality, styling, and interior materials, allowing the Model Y to deliver a more premium driving experience without a substantial price increase.
Reviewers praised its spacious cabin, strong safety profile, and practical range, all of which reinforced its appeal for families needing an all-purpose electric crossover. The Model Y remains especially notable given its continued popularity in Norway even as Tesla faces declining sales in other global markets.
“The Model Y is back as the winner in the family class. The upgrade in the new year was even more extensive than expected. It is a slightly more elegant and significantly more comfortable Model Y that solidifies its position as Norway’s best car purchase in the most important class,” the Norwegian motoring publication noted.
News
Tesla Giga Berlin is still ramping production to meet Model Y demand: plant manager
Tesla Gigafactory Berlin has expanded to two full shifts, as per the facility’s plant manager, and a lot of it is due to Model Y demand.
Tesla Gigafactory Berlin has expanded to two full shifts, as per the facility’s plant manager, and a lot of it is due to Model Y demand. While registrations in some countries such as Sweden have fallen sharply this year, the company’s sales in other key territories have been rising.
Giga Berlin shifts to two shifts
Giga Berlin factory manager André Thierig told the DPA that the facility has been running two shifts since September to manage a surge in global orders. And due to the tariff dispute with the United States, vehicles that are produced at Giga Berlin are now being exported to Canada.
“We deliver to well over 30 markets and definitely see a positive trend there,” Thierig said.
Despite Giga Berlin now having two shifts, the facility’s production still needs to ramp up more. This is partly due to the addition of the Tesla Model Y Performance and Standard, which are also being produced in the Grunheide-based factory. Interestingly enough, Giga Berlin still only produces the Model Y, unlike other factories like Gigafactory Texas, the Fremont Factory, and Gigafactory Shanghai, which produce more than one type of vehicle.
Norway’s momentum
Norway, facing an imminent tax increase on cars, has seen a historic spike in Tesla purchases as buyers rush to secure deliveries before the change takes effect, as noted in a CarUp report. As per recent reports, Tesla has broken Norway’s all-time annual sales record this month, beating Volkswagen’s record that has stood since 2016.
-->What is rather remarkable is the fact that Tesla was able to achieve so much in Norway with one hand practically tied behind its back. This is because the company’s biggest sales draw, FSD, remains unavailable in the country. Fortunately, Tesla is currently hard at work attempting to get FSD approved for Europe, a notable milestone that should spur even more vehicle sales in the region.
Tesla is launching a crazy Full Self-Driving free trial, which will enable owners who have not purchased the suite outright to try it for 30 days.
There are a handful of stipulations that will be needed in order for you to qualify for the free trial, which was announced on Thursday night.
Tesla said the trial is for v14, the company’s latest version of the Full Self-Driving suite, and will be available to new and existing Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, and Cybertruck owners, who will have the opportunity to try the latest features, including Speed Profiles, Arrival Options, and other new upgrades.
🚨 Tesla is launching a free 30-day trial of Full Self-Driving in North America for owners.
It includes every model, but you need v14.2 or later, and you cannot have already purchased the suite outright. https://t.co/8CNmxxOkVl
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) November 27, 2025
You must own one of the five Tesla models, have Full Self-Driving v14.2 or later, and have an eligible vehicle in the United States, Puerto Rico, Mexico, or Canada.
The company said it is a non-transferable trial, which is not redeemable for cash. Tesla is reaching out to owners via email to give them the opportunity to enable the Full Self-Driving trial.
Those who are subscribed to the monthly Full Self-Driving program are eligible, so they will essentially get a free month of the suite.
Once it is installed, the trial will begin, and the 30-day countdown will begin.
Tesla is making a major push to increase its Full Self-Driving take rate, as it revealed that about 12 percent of owners are users of the program during its recent earnings call.
Tesla CFO Vaibhav Taneja said during the call:
“We feel that as people experience the supervised FSD at scale, demand for our vehicles, like Elon said, would increase significantly. On the FSD adoption front, we’ve continued to see decent progress. However, note that the total paid FSD customer base is still small, around 12% of our current fleet.”
Earlier today, we reported on Tesla also launching a small-scale advertising campaign on X for the Full Self-Driving suite, hoping to increase adoption.
Tesla Full Self-Driving warrants huge switch-up on essential company strategy
It appears most people are pretty content with the subscription program. It costs just $99 a month, in comparison to the $8,000 fee it is for the outright purchase.
Tesla Model 3 and Model Y named top car buys in Norway
Tesla Giga Berlin is still ramping production to meet Model Y demand: plant manager
