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(Op-ed) A neutral look at Tesla’s upcoming Q1 2025 vehicle deliveries

Elon Musk affects Tesla, but his impact on the company’s raw vehicle sales may not be as notable as critics would suggest.

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Credit: Tesla China

Tesla is such a volatile topic for many that it’s difficult to get a neutral image of the company and its fundamentals today. A look at Tesla news coverage shows this, as even dedicated electric vehicle blogs and tech publications seem to find it difficult to separate Tesla from Elon Musk, who is more polarizing than ever.

This is what I aim to cover in this op-ed. I will be exploring Tesla’s first quarter vehicle deliveries, why they might be underwhelming, the reasons behind them, and why I believe the sky is not necessarily falling. 

A likely miss

Analyst consensus for Tesla’s Q1 2025 deliveries currently stands at 418,000 vehicles. That would suggest a year-over-year improvement of 8.06% from the 386,810 vehicles that Tesla was able to deliver in the first quarter of 2024. Considering Tesla’s sales in China and Europe over January and February, 418,000 deliveries seem to be a long shot for the first quarter of 2025.

It would not be surprising at all if Tesla ends up missing Wall Street’s consensus estimates, and by a pretty wide margin. Such is expected considering Tesla’s focus in the first quarter. But what is this focus, really? Elon Musk’s politics? Not necessarily.

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A Model Y-shaped hole

Critics and negative Tesla news coverage would argue that the company’s steep drop in sales in several European markets and China is a sign that the company is finished, or that Elon Musk is doing global damage to the Tesla brand. However, Tesla’s sales decline this Q1 may actually be affected in no small part by the company’s transition from the Model Y classic to the new Model Y, which was launched across the United States, China, and Germany.

The Model Y is Tesla’s strongest seller, and it comprises a huge portion of the company’s deliveries every quarter. Considering that the Model Y classic quite literally became the world’s best-selling vehicle by volume in 2023 and 2024, it would not be an exaggeration to state that Tesla’s deliveries have been greatly carried by the all-electric crossover. What would happen then if Tesla implements a transition to the Model Y’s new version across its factories worldwide? Raw Model Y deliveries will go down, at least until Tesla starts deliveries of the revamped all-electric crossover. This is exactly what seems to be happening in China. 

A look at Tesla China’s numbers from January and February will show that the company saw fewer registrations this year compared to last year. However, vehicle registrations have since picked up with the start of the new Model Y’s domestic deliveries. Similar trends may emerge in the United States and Europe, as well as territories supplied by Giga Shanghai, Giga Texas, the Fremont Factory, and Giga Berlin.

The Elon Musk factor

There is no doubt that Elon Musk is at his most polarizing today, but to credit Tesla’s low deliveries to the CEO’s political antics is very shortsighted. Yes, Elon Musk affects Tesla, but his impact on the company’s raw vehicle sales may not be as notable as critics would suggest. This could be seen in the results of a poll from German publication t-online, which initially concluded that 94% of Germans won’t buy a Tesla anymore. As it turned out, the survey would end up painting the complete opposite picture once more respondents took the poll. With more than 467,000 respondents on the survey, over 70% stated that they would buy a Tesla.

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To state that Elon Musk’s political actions are not adversely affecting Tesla’s appeal to some consumers would not be accurate. There are evidently people who will not be purchasing a Tesla due to Elon Musk and his work with the Trump administration. The impact of the Musk factor, however, may not be as drastic as Tesla critics would suggest. It would not, for example, result in 94% of car buyers suddenly swearing off Tesla. The vast majority of consumers, after all, generally gravitate to the best products in the market, period. Assuming that this is true for most consumers today, Tesla’s vehicles definitely still have a fighting chance this year.

In conclusion

Considering Wall Street’s 418,000 vehicle delivery consensus, it almost seems certain that Tesla will miss this estimate by a notable margin. This would likely result in a wave of reports alleging that demand is drying up worldwide or Musk has completely tanked the brand’s appeal to consumers. With the new Model Y now starting its deliveries across the globe, however, Tesla’s real performance and a clearer view of Musk’s effect on the company’s demand, would likely become more evident in the coming quarters.

Simon is an experienced automotive reporter with a passion for electric cars and clean energy. Fascinated by the world envisioned by Elon Musk, he hopes to make it to Mars (at least as a tourist) someday. For stories or tips--or even to just say a simple hello--send a message to his email, simon@teslarati.com or his handle on X, @ResidentSponge.

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The Starship V3 static fire everyone was waiting for just happened

SpaceX fired all 33 Raptor 3 engines on Starship V3 today clearing the path for Flight 12.

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SpaceX Starship V3 from Starbase, Texas on April 14, 2026

SpaceX is that much closer to launching their next-gen Starship after completing today’s full duration static fire of all 33 Raptor 3 engines out of Starbase, Texas. This marks the most powerful rocket engine test ever conducted and a direct signal that Flight 12, the maiden voyage of Starship V3, is imminent. SpaceX confirmed the test on X, posting that the full duration firing was completed ahead of the vehicle’s next flight test.

The road to today started on March 16, when Booster 19 completed a shorter 10-engine static fire, also at the newly constructed Pad 2. That test ended early due to a ground systems issue but confirmed all installed Raptor 3 engines started cleanly. Booster 19 returned to the Mega Bay, received its remaining 23 engines for a full complement of 33, and rolled back out this week for the complete test campaign. Musk confirmed earlier this month that Flight 12 is now 4 to 6 weeks away.

Countdown: America is going back to the Moon and SpaceX holds the key to what comes after

The numbers behind today’s test are genuinely hard to put in context. Each Raptor 3 engine produces roughly 280 tons of thrust, and with all 33 firing simultaneously, this generates approximately 9,240 tons of combined thrust, more than any rocket in history. For context, that’s enough thrust to lift the entire Empire State Building, and then some. V3 stands 408 feet tall and can carry over 100 tons to low Earth orbit in a fully reusable configuration. The V2 generation topped out at around 35 tons.

Historically, a successful full-duration static fire is the last major ground milestone before launch. SpaceX has followed this pattern with every Starship iteration since the program began in 2023.  Musk has been direct about the ambition behind all of it. “I am highly confident that the V3 design will achieve full reusability,” he wrote on X earlier this year. Full reusability of both stages is the foundation of SpaceX’s plan to make regular flights to the Moon and Mars economically viable. Today’s test brings that goal one significant step closer.


Starship V3 delivers on two most critical promises of full reusability and in-orbit refueling. The reusability case is straightforward, and one we have seen with Falcon 9 wherein the rocket can fly again within a day rather than building a new one for every mission. It’s the only economic model that makes frequent lunar cargo runs viable. The in-orbit refueling piece is less obvious but equally essential. To reach the Moon with enough payload, Starship requires roughly ten dedicated tanker flights to fuel up a propellant depot in low Earth orbit before it can even begin its journey to the lunar surface. That capability has never been demonstrated at scale, and Flight 12 is the first step toward proving it works. As Teslarati reported, NASA’s Artemis II crew completed a historic lunar flyby earlier this month, the first humans to travel beyond low Earth orbit since 1972, but getting astronauts to actually land and eventually supply a permanent Moon base requires a cargo pipeline that only a fully reusable, refuelable Starship V3 can deliver at the volume and cost NASA’s plans demand.

SpaceX Starship full duration static fire on April 14, 2026 from Starbase, Texas (Credit: SpaceX)

SpaceX Starship full duration static fire on April 14, 2026 from Starbase, Texas (Credit: SpaceX)

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Tesla Full Self-Driving shows stunning maneuver in Europe to silence skeptics

In a striking demonstration of autonomous driving prowess, Tesla’s Full Self-Driving (FSD) system recently showcased its capabilities on the narrow rural roads of the Netherlands. Captured in two in-car videos, the system encountered scenarios that would challenge even the most experienced human drivers.

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla Full Self-Driving, fresh on the heels of its approval for operation on European roads for the first time, showed off a stunning maneuver that will certainly silence any skeptics on the continent.

Fresh off its approval in the Netherlands, Full Self-Driving is working toward a significant expansion into more parts of Europe.

In a striking demonstration of autonomous driving prowess, Tesla’s Full Self-Driving (FSD) system recently showcased its capabilities on the narrow rural roads of the Netherlands. Captured in two in-car videos, the system encountered scenarios that would challenge even the most experienced human drivers.

In the first clip, a wide tractor occupied more than half the lane on a tight two-way road. Rather than braking abruptly or forcing a collision risk, FSD smoothly edged the vehicle onto the adjacent bike path—using the extra space with precision—before seamlessly returning to the lane once clear.

The second clip was equally demanding: while overtaking a group of cyclists, an oncoming car approached at speed.

FSD maintained a safe, minimal buffer to the cyclists while timing the pass perfectly, avoiding any swerve or hesitation that could unsettle passengers or other road users.

This maneuver highlights FSD’s advanced spatial reasoning and predictive planning. On roads often under three meters wide, with no room for error, the system calculated available clearance in real time, incorporated shoulder and path geometry, and executed a controlled deviation without compromising safety.

It treated the bike path as a legitimate extension of navigable space, something many drivers might hesitate to do, while respecting Dutch road norms and cyclist priority.

Such feats align closely with a growing library of impressive FSD maneuvers documented on camera worldwide.

In urban Amsterdam, for instance, FSD has navigated the world’s densest cyclist environments, weaving through hundreds of unpredictable bike movements on canal-side streets with tram tracks and pedestrians.

One uncut drive showed it yielding smoothly at crossings, overtaking where needed, and even handling a near-perfect auto-park in a tight residential spot, demonstrating the same low-speed precision seen in the rural clips.

Teslas using FSD have tackled turbo roundabouts in the Netherlands, complex multi-lane circles notorious for geometry challenges, merging confidently while yielding to traffic. Similar clips depict smooth handling of construction zones, emergency vehicle pull-overs, and gated parking barriers, where the car stops precisely, waits for clearance, and proceeds without driver input.

Collectively, these examples illustrate FSD’s evolution toward handling the unpredictable.

The rural Netherlands maneuvers aren’t isolated. Instead, they reflect a pattern of spatial awareness, cyclist deference, and traffic anticipation seen from city streets to highways.

As FSD continues refining through real-world data, videos like this one are certainly building a compelling case for its readiness on Europe’s varied roads.

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Tesla utilizes its ‘Rave Cave’ for new awesome safety feature

Part of the massive interior overhaul of both the Model 3 “Highland” and Model Y “Juniper” was the addition of interior accent lighting to help bring out the mood of the vehicle, increase the customization of the interior, and to create a unique listening experience.

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Credit: Tesla | X

Tesla is utilizing its ‘Rave Cave’ for an awesome new safety feature that will arrive with the upcoming Spring Update for 2026.

Part of the massive interior overhaul of both the Model 3 “Highland” and Model Y “Juniper” was the addition of interior accent lighting to help bring out the mood of the vehicle, increase the customization of the interior, and to create a unique listening experience.

Tesla added a Sync Lights feature that will strobe the accent strips with the beat of the music.

It is one of the most unique and one of the coolest non-functional features of a Tesla, as it does not improve the driving of the vehicle, but makes it a cool and personal addition to the interior.

However, Tesla is going to take it one step further, as the Rave Cave lights will now be used for blind spot recognition. This feature will be added as the Spring 2026 Update starts to roll out.

Tesla writes:

“Accent lights now turn red when an object is in your blind spot and your turn signal is engaged, or when an approaching object is detected while parked.”

This neat new safety feature will now increase the likelihood of a driver, who is operating their Tesla manually, of seeing the blind spot warnings that are currently available on the A pillar and on the center touchscreen.

These new alerts will now warn drivers of cross traffic as they back out of a parking space with little to no visibility of what is coming. It is a great new addition that will only increase the safety of the vehicles, while also utilizing something that is already installed in these specific Model 3 and Model Y units.

The Model 3 and Model Y were the central focus of the Spring 2026 Update, especially considering the fact that the Model S and Model X are basically gone, with only a few hundred units left. Additionally, Tesla included new Immersive Sound and Car Visualization for the Model 3 and Model Y specifically in this new update.

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