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(Op-ed) A neutral look at Tesla’s upcoming Q1 2025 vehicle deliveries
Elon Musk affects Tesla, but his impact on the company’s raw vehicle sales may not be as notable as critics would suggest.
Tesla is such a volatile topic for many that it’s difficult to get a neutral image of the company and its fundamentals today. A look at Tesla news coverage shows this, as even dedicated electric vehicle blogs and tech publications seem to find it difficult to separate Tesla from Elon Musk, who is more polarizing than ever.
This is what I aim to cover in this op-ed. I will be exploring Tesla’s first quarter vehicle deliveries, why they might be underwhelming, the reasons behind them, and why I believe the sky is not necessarily falling.
A likely miss
Analyst consensus for Tesla’s Q1 2025 deliveries currently stands at 418,000 vehicles. That would suggest a year-over-year improvement of 8.06% from the 386,810 vehicles that Tesla was able to deliver in the first quarter of 2024. Considering Tesla’s sales in China and Europe over January and February, 418,000 deliveries seem to be a long shot for the first quarter of 2025.
It would not be surprising at all if Tesla ends up missing Wall Street’s consensus estimates, and by a pretty wide margin. Such is expected considering Tesla’s focus in the first quarter. But what is this focus, really? Elon Musk’s politics? Not necessarily.
A Model Y-shaped hole
Critics and negative Tesla news coverage would argue that the company’s steep drop in sales in several European markets and China is a sign that the company is finished, or that Elon Musk is doing global damage to the Tesla brand. However, Tesla’s sales decline this Q1 may actually be affected in no small part by the company’s transition from the Model Y classic to the new Model Y, which was launched across the United States, China, and Germany.
The Model Y is Tesla’s strongest seller, and it comprises a huge portion of the company’s deliveries every quarter. Considering that the Model Y classic quite literally became the world’s best-selling vehicle by volume in 2023 and 2024, it would not be an exaggeration to state that Tesla’s deliveries have been greatly carried by the all-electric crossover. What would happen then if Tesla implements a transition to the Model Y’s new version across its factories worldwide? Raw Model Y deliveries will go down, at least until Tesla starts deliveries of the revamped all-electric crossover. This is exactly what seems to be happening in China.
A look at Tesla China’s numbers from January and February will show that the company saw fewer registrations this year compared to last year. However, vehicle registrations have since picked up with the start of the new Model Y’s domestic deliveries. Similar trends may emerge in the United States and Europe, as well as territories supplied by Giga Shanghai, Giga Texas, the Fremont Factory, and Giga Berlin.
The Elon Musk factor
There is no doubt that Elon Musk is at his most polarizing today, but to credit Tesla’s low deliveries to the CEO’s political antics is very shortsighted. Yes, Elon Musk affects Tesla, but his impact on the company’s raw vehicle sales may not be as notable as critics would suggest. This could be seen in the results of a poll from German publication t-online, which initially concluded that 94% of Germans won’t buy a Tesla anymore. As it turned out, the survey would end up painting the complete opposite picture once more respondents took the poll. With more than 467,000 respondents on the survey, over 70% stated that they would buy a Tesla.
To state that Elon Musk’s political actions are not adversely affecting Tesla’s appeal to some consumers would not be accurate. There are evidently people who will not be purchasing a Tesla due to Elon Musk and his work with the Trump administration. The impact of the Musk factor, however, may not be as drastic as Tesla critics would suggest. It would not, for example, result in 94% of car buyers suddenly swearing off Tesla. The vast majority of consumers, after all, generally gravitate to the best products in the market, period. Assuming that this is true for most consumers today, Tesla’s vehicles definitely still have a fighting chance this year.
In conclusion
Considering Wall Street’s 418,000 vehicle delivery consensus, it almost seems certain that Tesla will miss this estimate by a notable margin. This would likely result in a wave of reports alleging that demand is drying up worldwide or Musk has completely tanked the brand’s appeal to consumers. With the new Model Y now starting its deliveries across the globe, however, Tesla’s real performance and a clearer view of Musk’s effect on the company’s demand, would likely become more evident in the coming quarters.
Elon Musk
Tesla China posts strong February wholesale growth at Gigafactory Shanghai
The update was shared by Tesla observers on social media platform X, citing monthly China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) data.
Tesla China sold 58,599 vehicles wholesale in February, reflecting strong year-over-year growth. The figure includes both domestic deliveries in China and vehicles exported to international markets.
The update was shared by Tesla observers on social media platform X, citing monthly China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) data.
Tesla’s February wholesale result represents a 91% increase year over year, compared with 30,688 vehicles in February 2025. Month over month, the result was down 15.2% from January, when Tesla China recorded 69,129 wholesale units.
The February total reflects combined sales of the Model 3 and Model Y produced at Gigafactory Shanghai. The facility produces the two vehicles for both domestic sales and exports.
Gigafactory Shanghai continues to serve as Tesla’s primary vehicle export hub, supplying vehicles to markets across Asia and Europe. Data compiled by Tesla watchers shows that 18,485 vehicles were sold domestically in China in January 2026, while exports accounted for 50,644 units during the same period.
Tesla has also been extending financing programs in China as it pushes to strengthen domestic demand. The company recently extended its seven-year ultra-low-interest and five-year interest-free financing programs through March 31, marking the second extension of the promotion this year.
The financing initiative was first introduced on January 6 as a strategy aimed at offsetting higher ownership costs ahead of China’s planned 5% NEV purchase tax in 2026. The promotion was originally scheduled to expire at the end of January before being extended to February and then again through the end of the first quarter.
Tesla’s efforts come amid growing competition in China’s EV market. According to data compiled by CNEV Post, Tesla’s 2025 retail sales in China reached 625,698 vehicles, representing a 4.78% year-over-year decline. Part of that decline was linked to the Model Y changeover to its updated variant in early 2025, which temporarily reduced deliveries during the transition period.
News
Tesla Model Y L spotted on transport trucks in Australia
One of the sightings was reported along Victoria Parade in Melbourne, and it showed multiple Model Y L vehicles on a transport carrier.
Tesla’s upcoming Model Y L has been spotted on transport trucks in Australia. Sightings of the six-seat extended wheelbase Model Y variant have been reported on social media platform X by members of the Australian Tesla community.
One of the sightings was reported along Victoria Parade in Melbourne, and it showed multiple Model Y L vehicles on a transport carrier.
The sighting follows earlier observations by Tesla enthusiasts in Sydney, where a covered vehicle believed to be a Model Y L was spotted at a Supercharger.
The Sydney sighting drew attention after observers noted that the vehicle’s tare weight appeared to match the ADR approval listing for the Model Y L, suggesting it could indeed be the extended wheelbase variant of the electric SUV.
Tesla has previously confirmed that the Model Y L will launch in Australia and New Zealand in 2026. The confirmation was reported by techAU following a media release from Tesla Australia and New Zealand.
The Model Y L expands the existing Model Y lineup with seating for six passengers. The vehicle features a longer body compared with the standard Model Y in order to accommodate a spacious second and third row.
Tesla has opted for a 2-2-2 seating configuration instead of a traditional seven-seat layout for the Model Y L. The design includes two individual seats in the middle row to provide easier access to the third row and additional passenger space.
Tesla Australia and New Zealand has also stated that the Model Y L will be covered under the company’s updated warranty structure beginning in 2026.
Tesla has not yet announced pricing or official range figures for the Model Y L in Australia.
Elon Musk
Elon Musk shares timeframe for X Money early public access rollout
X Money is expected to enable financial transactions within the app, expanding the platform’s capabilities beyond social media features.
Elon Musk has stated that X Money, the digital payments system being developed for social media platform X, is expected to enter early public access next month.
The update was shared by Musk in a post on X. “𝕏 Money early public access will launch next month,” Musk wrote in his post.
As noted in a Reuters report, X Money is being developed as a digital payment service that’s directly integrated into the X platform.
The system is expected to enable financial transactions within the app, expanding the platform’s capabilities beyond social media features.
Musk has previously discussed plans to introduce payments and financial services as part of X’s broader development.
Since acquiring the platform in 2022, Musk has discussed expanding X to include a range of services such as messaging, media, and financial tools.
Elon Musk has shared his goal of transforming X into an “everything app.” During a previous podcast interview with members of the Tesla community, Musk mused about turning X into something similar to China’s WeChat, which allows users to shop, pay, communicate, and perform a variety of other tasks.
“In China, you do everything in WeChat… it’s kickass… Outside of China, there’s nothing like it, people live on one app. My idea would be like how about if we just copy WeChat,” Musk joked at the time.
To prepare for the rollout of X Money, X has partnered with payment company Visa to support the development of payment services for the platform’s users. The move could allow X to tap into the growing demand for digital and in-app financial transactions as the company builds additional services around its existing user base.
Tesla China posts strong February wholesale growth at Gigafactory Shanghai
Tesla Model Y L spotted on transport trucks in Australia
