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(Op-ed) A neutral look at Tesla’s upcoming Q1 2025 vehicle deliveries
Elon Musk affects Tesla, but his impact on the company’s raw vehicle sales may not be as notable as critics would suggest.
Tesla is such a volatile topic for many that it’s difficult to get a neutral image of the company and its fundamentals today. A look at Tesla news coverage shows this, as even dedicated electric vehicle blogs and tech publications seem to find it difficult to separate Tesla from Elon Musk, who is more polarizing than ever.
This is what I aim to cover in this op-ed. I will be exploring Tesla’s first quarter vehicle deliveries, why they might be underwhelming, the reasons behind them, and why I believe the sky is not necessarily falling.
A likely miss
Analyst consensus for Tesla’s Q1 2025 deliveries currently stands at 418,000 vehicles. That would suggest a year-over-year improvement of 8.06% from the 386,810 vehicles that Tesla was able to deliver in the first quarter of 2024. Considering Tesla’s sales in China and Europe over January and February, 418,000 deliveries seem to be a long shot for the first quarter of 2025.
It would not be surprising at all if Tesla ends up missing Wall Street’s consensus estimates, and by a pretty wide margin. Such is expected considering Tesla’s focus in the first quarter. But what is this focus, really? Elon Musk’s politics? Not necessarily.
A Model Y-shaped hole
Critics and negative Tesla news coverage would argue that the company’s steep drop in sales in several European markets and China is a sign that the company is finished, or that Elon Musk is doing global damage to the Tesla brand. However, Tesla’s sales decline this Q1 may actually be affected in no small part by the company’s transition from the Model Y classic to the new Model Y, which was launched across the United States, China, and Germany.
The Model Y is Tesla’s strongest seller, and it comprises a huge portion of the company’s deliveries every quarter. Considering that the Model Y classic quite literally became the world’s best-selling vehicle by volume in 2023 and 2024, it would not be an exaggeration to state that Tesla’s deliveries have been greatly carried by the all-electric crossover. What would happen then if Tesla implements a transition to the Model Y’s new version across its factories worldwide? Raw Model Y deliveries will go down, at least until Tesla starts deliveries of the revamped all-electric crossover. This is exactly what seems to be happening in China.
A look at Tesla China’s numbers from January and February will show that the company saw fewer registrations this year compared to last year. However, vehicle registrations have since picked up with the start of the new Model Y’s domestic deliveries. Similar trends may emerge in the United States and Europe, as well as territories supplied by Giga Shanghai, Giga Texas, the Fremont Factory, and Giga Berlin.
The Elon Musk factor
There is no doubt that Elon Musk is at his most polarizing today, but to credit Tesla’s low deliveries to the CEO’s political antics is very shortsighted. Yes, Elon Musk affects Tesla, but his impact on the company’s raw vehicle sales may not be as notable as critics would suggest. This could be seen in the results of a poll from German publication t-online, which initially concluded that 94% of Germans won’t buy a Tesla anymore. As it turned out, the survey would end up painting the complete opposite picture once more respondents took the poll. With more than 467,000 respondents on the survey, over 70% stated that they would buy a Tesla.
To state that Elon Musk’s political actions are not adversely affecting Tesla’s appeal to some consumers would not be accurate. There are evidently people who will not be purchasing a Tesla due to Elon Musk and his work with the Trump administration. The impact of the Musk factor, however, may not be as drastic as Tesla critics would suggest. It would not, for example, result in 94% of car buyers suddenly swearing off Tesla. The vast majority of consumers, after all, generally gravitate to the best products in the market, period. Assuming that this is true for most consumers today, Tesla’s vehicles definitely still have a fighting chance this year.
In conclusion
Considering Wall Street’s 418,000 vehicle delivery consensus, it almost seems certain that Tesla will miss this estimate by a notable margin. This would likely result in a wave of reports alleging that demand is drying up worldwide or Musk has completely tanked the brand’s appeal to consumers. With the new Model Y now starting its deliveries across the globe, however, Tesla’s real performance and a clearer view of Musk’s effect on the company’s demand, would likely become more evident in the coming quarters.
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Tesla Full Self-Driving shows stunning maneuver in Europe to silence skeptics
In a striking demonstration of autonomous driving prowess, Tesla’s Full Self-Driving (FSD) system recently showcased its capabilities on the narrow rural roads of the Netherlands. Captured in two in-car videos, the system encountered scenarios that would challenge even the most experienced human drivers.
Tesla Full Self-Driving, fresh on the heels of its approval for operation on European roads for the first time, showed off a stunning maneuver that will certainly silence any skeptics on the continent.
Fresh off its approval in the Netherlands, Full Self-Driving is working toward a significant expansion into more parts of Europe.
In a striking demonstration of autonomous driving prowess, Tesla’s Full Self-Driving (FSD) system recently showcased its capabilities on the narrow rural roads of the Netherlands. Captured in two in-car videos, the system encountered scenarios that would challenge even the most experienced human drivers.
In the first clip, a wide tractor occupied more than half the lane on a tight two-way road. Rather than braking abruptly or forcing a collision risk, FSD smoothly edged the vehicle onto the adjacent bike path—using the extra space with precision—before seamlessly returning to the lane once clear.
The second clip was equally demanding: while overtaking a group of cyclists, an oncoming car approached at speed.
FSD maintained a safe, minimal buffer to the cyclists while timing the pass perfectly, avoiding any swerve or hesitation that could unsettle passengers or other road users.
People wonder if FSD is safe on narrow European roads. Well have a look what it did when a tractor took up more than half of the road or when overtaking bicycles with fast oncoming traffic. pic.twitter.com/z37Csa09sP
— Chanan Bos (@ChananBos) April 14, 2026
This maneuver highlights FSD’s advanced spatial reasoning and predictive planning. On roads often under three meters wide, with no room for error, the system calculated available clearance in real time, incorporated shoulder and path geometry, and executed a controlled deviation without compromising safety.
It treated the bike path as a legitimate extension of navigable space, something many drivers might hesitate to do, while respecting Dutch road norms and cyclist priority.
Such feats align closely with a growing library of impressive FSD maneuvers documented on camera worldwide.
In urban Amsterdam, for instance, FSD has navigated the world’s densest cyclist environments, weaving through hundreds of unpredictable bike movements on canal-side streets with tram tracks and pedestrians.
One uncut drive showed it yielding smoothly at crossings, overtaking where needed, and even handling a near-perfect auto-park in a tight residential spot, demonstrating the same low-speed precision seen in the rural clips.
Teslas using FSD have tackled turbo roundabouts in the Netherlands, complex multi-lane circles notorious for geometry challenges, merging confidently while yielding to traffic. Similar clips depict smooth handling of construction zones, emergency vehicle pull-overs, and gated parking barriers, where the car stops precisely, waits for clearance, and proceeds without driver input.
Collectively, these examples illustrate FSD’s evolution toward handling the unpredictable.
The rural Netherlands maneuvers aren’t isolated. Instead, they reflect a pattern of spatial awareness, cyclist deference, and traffic anticipation seen from city streets to highways.
As FSD continues refining through real-world data, videos like this one are certainly building a compelling case for its readiness on Europe’s varied roads.
News
Tesla utilizes its ‘Rave Cave’ for new awesome safety feature
Part of the massive interior overhaul of both the Model 3 “Highland” and Model Y “Juniper” was the addition of interior accent lighting to help bring out the mood of the vehicle, increase the customization of the interior, and to create a unique listening experience.
Tesla is utilizing its ‘Rave Cave’ for an awesome new safety feature that will arrive with the upcoming Spring Update for 2026.
Part of the massive interior overhaul of both the Model 3 “Highland” and Model Y “Juniper” was the addition of interior accent lighting to help bring out the mood of the vehicle, increase the customization of the interior, and to create a unique listening experience.
Tesla added a Sync Lights feature that will strobe the accent strips with the beat of the music.
It is one of the most unique and one of the coolest non-functional features of a Tesla, as it does not improve the driving of the vehicle, but makes it a cool and personal addition to the interior.
However, Tesla is going to take it one step further, as the Rave Cave lights will now be used for blind spot recognition. This feature will be added as the Spring 2026 Update starts to roll out.
A lot of CRAZY new features coming with Tesla’s 2026 Spring Update, including a new FSD app!
– Self-Driving App (AI4 hardware): New app in App Launcher > Self-Driving for one-tap FSD subscriptions, activation guides, and ongoing stats.
– “Hey Grok”: Voice-activated Grok with… https://t.co/ljeYPlq9Qt— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) April 13, 2026
Tesla writes:
“Accent lights now turn red when an object is in your blind spot and your turn signal is engaged, or when an approaching object is detected while parked.”
This neat new safety feature will now increase the likelihood of a driver, who is operating their Tesla manually, of seeing the blind spot warnings that are currently available on the A pillar and on the center touchscreen.
These new alerts will now warn drivers of cross traffic as they back out of a parking space with little to no visibility of what is coming. It is a great new addition that will only increase the safety of the vehicles, while also utilizing something that is already installed in these specific Model 3 and Model Y units.
The Model 3 and Model Y were the central focus of the Spring 2026 Update, especially considering the fact that the Model S and Model X are basically gone, with only a few hundred units left. Additionally, Tesla included new Immersive Sound and Car Visualization for the Model 3 and Model Y specifically in this new update.
News
Tesla parked 50+ Cybercabs outside its Texas Factory with some crash tested
Dozens of Tesla Cybercabs have been spotted at Giga Texas crash testing facility ahead of launch.
Drone footage captured by longtime Giga Texas observer Joe Tegtmeyer shows over 50 units of Tesla Cybercab at the Austin factory campus, including several units clustered by Tesla’s on-site crash testing facility.
The outbound lot at Gigafactory Texas sits just outside the factory exit and serves as the primary staging area where finished vehicles are held before being loaded onto transport carriers or dispatched for validation testing. On any given day, the lot holds a mix of Model Y and Cybertruck units alongside the growing Tesla Cybercab fleet, as can be seen in the drone footage captured by Joe Tegtmeyer.
Roughly 50 Cybercab units are visible across the campus, parked in tight organized rows. Most of the units visible still carry steering wheels and pedals, temporary additions Tesla included to satisfy current safety regulations while the vehicles accumulate real-world data ahead of full regulatory approval for a steering wheel-free design. Tesla operates dedicated Crash Labs at both its Giga Texas and Fremont facilities that are purpose-built for controlled structural crash tests. Historically, automakers begin intensive crash testing roughly one to two months before volume production kicks off. The Cybertruck followed almost exactly that pattern. The Cybercab appears to be on the same track facility that we first saw back in October 2025. The first production Cybercab rolled off the Giga Texas line on February 17, 2026. Volume production is now targeted for April. Musk previously wrote on X that “the early production rate will be agonizingly slow, but eventually end up being insanely fast,” and separately stated Tesla is targeting at least 2 million Cybercab units per year. Commercial robotaxi service in Austin is targeted for late 2026.


