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(Op-ed) A neutral look at Tesla’s upcoming Q1 2025 vehicle deliveries
Elon Musk affects Tesla, but his impact on the company’s raw vehicle sales may not be as notable as critics would suggest.
Tesla is such a volatile topic for many that it’s difficult to get a neutral image of the company and its fundamentals today. A look at Tesla news coverage shows this, as even dedicated electric vehicle blogs and tech publications seem to find it difficult to separate Tesla from Elon Musk, who is more polarizing than ever.
This is what I aim to cover in this op-ed. I will be exploring Tesla’s first quarter vehicle deliveries, why they might be underwhelming, the reasons behind them, and why I believe the sky is not necessarily falling.
A likely miss
Analyst consensus for Tesla’s Q1 2025 deliveries currently stands at 418,000 vehicles. That would suggest a year-over-year improvement of 8.06% from the 386,810 vehicles that Tesla was able to deliver in the first quarter of 2024. Considering Tesla’s sales in China and Europe over January and February, 418,000 deliveries seem to be a long shot for the first quarter of 2025.
It would not be surprising at all if Tesla ends up missing Wall Street’s consensus estimates, and by a pretty wide margin. Such is expected considering Tesla’s focus in the first quarter. But what is this focus, really? Elon Musk’s politics? Not necessarily.
A Model Y-shaped hole
Critics and negative Tesla news coverage would argue that the company’s steep drop in sales in several European markets and China is a sign that the company is finished, or that Elon Musk is doing global damage to the Tesla brand. However, Tesla’s sales decline this Q1 may actually be affected in no small part by the company’s transition from the Model Y classic to the new Model Y, which was launched across the United States, China, and Germany.
The Model Y is Tesla’s strongest seller, and it comprises a huge portion of the company’s deliveries every quarter. Considering that the Model Y classic quite literally became the world’s best-selling vehicle by volume in 2023 and 2024, it would not be an exaggeration to state that Tesla’s deliveries have been greatly carried by the all-electric crossover. What would happen then if Tesla implements a transition to the Model Y’s new version across its factories worldwide? Raw Model Y deliveries will go down, at least until Tesla starts deliveries of the revamped all-electric crossover. This is exactly what seems to be happening in China.
A look at Tesla China’s numbers from January and February will show that the company saw fewer registrations this year compared to last year. However, vehicle registrations have since picked up with the start of the new Model Y’s domestic deliveries. Similar trends may emerge in the United States and Europe, as well as territories supplied by Giga Shanghai, Giga Texas, the Fremont Factory, and Giga Berlin.
The Elon Musk factor
There is no doubt that Elon Musk is at his most polarizing today, but to credit Tesla’s low deliveries to the CEO’s political antics is very shortsighted. Yes, Elon Musk affects Tesla, but his impact on the company’s raw vehicle sales may not be as notable as critics would suggest. This could be seen in the results of a poll from German publication t-online, which initially concluded that 94% of Germans won’t buy a Tesla anymore. As it turned out, the survey would end up painting the complete opposite picture once more respondents took the poll. With more than 467,000 respondents on the survey, over 70% stated that they would buy a Tesla.
To state that Elon Musk’s political actions are not adversely affecting Tesla’s appeal to some consumers would not be accurate. There are evidently people who will not be purchasing a Tesla due to Elon Musk and his work with the Trump administration. The impact of the Musk factor, however, may not be as drastic as Tesla critics would suggest. It would not, for example, result in 94% of car buyers suddenly swearing off Tesla. The vast majority of consumers, after all, generally gravitate to the best products in the market, period. Assuming that this is true for most consumers today, Tesla’s vehicles definitely still have a fighting chance this year.
In conclusion
Considering Wall Street’s 418,000 vehicle delivery consensus, it almost seems certain that Tesla will miss this estimate by a notable margin. This would likely result in a wave of reports alleging that demand is drying up worldwide or Musk has completely tanked the brand’s appeal to consumers. With the new Model Y now starting its deliveries across the globe, however, Tesla’s real performance and a clearer view of Musk’s effect on the company’s demand, would likely become more evident in the coming quarters.
Elon Musk
Tesla CEO Elon Musk announces major update with texting and driving on FSD
“Depending on context of surrounding traffic, yes,” Musk said in regards to FSD v14.2.1 allowing texting and driving.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk has announced a major update with texting and driving capabilities on Full Self-Driving v14.2.1, the company’s latest version of the FSD suite.
Tesla Full Self-Driving, even in its most mature and capable versions, is still a Level 2 autonomous driving suite, meaning it requires attention from the vehicle operator.
You cannot sleep, and you should not take attention away from driving; ultimately, you are still solely responsible for what happens with the car.
The vehicles utilize a cabin-facing camera to enable attention monitoring, and if you take your eyes off the road for too long, you will be admonished and advised to pay attention. After five strikes, FSD and Autopilot will be disabled.
However, Musk announced at the Annual Shareholder Meeting in early November that the company would look at the statistics, but it aimed to allow people to text and drive “within the next month or two.”
He said:
“I am confident that, within the next month or two, we’re gonna look at the safety statistics, but we will allow you to text and drive.”
“I am confident that, within the next month or two, we’re gonna look at the safety statistics, but we will allow you to text and drive.”
Does anyone think v14.3 will enable this? pic.twitter.com/N2yn0SK70M
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) November 23, 2025
Today, Musk confirmed that the current version of Full Self-Driving, which is FSD v14.2.1, does allow for texting and driving “depending on context of surrounding traffic.”
Depending on context of surrounding traffic, yes
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) December 4, 2025
There are some legitimate questions with this capability, especially as laws in all 50 U.S. states specifically prohibit texting and driving. It will be interesting to see the legality of it, because if a police officer sees you texting, they won’t know that you’re on Full Self-Driving, and you’ll likely be pulled over.
Some states prohibit drivers from even holding a phone when the car is in motion.
It is certainly a move toward unsupervised Full Self-Driving operation, but it is worth noting that Musk’s words state it will only allow the vehicle operator to do it depending on the context of surrounding traffic.
He did not outline any specific conditions that FSD would allow a driver to text and drive.
News
Tesla Semi just got a huge vote of confidence from 300-truck fleet
The confidential meeting marks a major step for the mid-sized carrier in evaluating the electric truck for its regional routes.
The Tesla Semi is moving closer to broader fleet adoption, with Keller Logistics Group wrapping up a key pre-production planning session with the electric vehicle maker’s team this week.
The confidential meeting marks a major step for the mid-sized carrier in evaluating the electric truck for its regional routes.
Keller’s pre-production Tesla Semi sessions
Keller Logistics Group, a family-owned carrier with over 300 tractors and 1,000 trailers operating in the Midwest and Southeast, completed the session to assess the Tesla Semi’s fit for its operations. The company’s routes typically span 500-600 miles per day, positioning it as an ideal tester for the Semi’s day cab configuration in standard logistics scenarios.
Details remain under mutual NDA, but the meeting reportedly focused on matching the truck to yard, shuttle and regional applications while scrutinizing economics like infrastructure, maintenance and incentives.
What Keller’s executives are saying
CEO Bryan Keller described the approach as methodical. “For us, staying ahead isn’t a headline, it’s a habit. From electrification and yard automation to digital visibility and warehouse technology, our teams are continually pressure-testing what’s next. The Tesla Semi discussion is one more way we evaluate new tools against our standards for safety, uptime, and customer ROI. We don’t chase trends, we pressure-test what works,” Keller said.
Benjamin Pierce, Chief Strategy Officer, echoed these sentiments. “Electrification and next-generation powertrains are part of a much broader transformation. Whether it’s proprietary yard systems like YardLink™, solar and renewable logistics solutions, or real-time vehicle intelligence, Keller’s approach stays the same, test it, prove it, and deploy it only when it strengthens service and total cost for our customers,” Pierce said.
News
Tesla extends FSD Supervised ride-alongs in Europe by three months
Needless to say, it does appear that FSD fever is starting to catch in Europe.
Tesla appears to be doubling down on its European Full Self-Driving (Supervised) push, with the company extending its demo ride-along program by three months until the end of March 2026. The update seems to have been implemented due to overwhelming demand.
Needless to say, it does appear that FSD fever is starting to catch in Europe.
Extended FSD demonstrations
Tesla EU Policy and Business Development Manager Ivan Komušanac shared on LinkedIn that the company is offering ride-along experiences in Germany, France and Italy while working toward FSD (Supervised) approval in Europe.
He noted that this provides a great feedback opportunity from the general public, encouraging participants to record and share their experiences. For those unable to book in December, Komušanac teased more slots as “Christmas presents.”
Tesla watcher Sawyer Merritt highlighted the extension on X, stating that dates now run from December 1, 2025, to March 31, 2026, in multiple cities including Stuttgart-Weinstadt, Frankfurt and Düsseldorf in Germany. This suggests that the FSD ride-along program in Europe has officially been extended until the end of the first quarter of 2026.
Building momentum for European approval
Replies to Merritt’s posts buzzed with excitement, with users like @AuzyMale noting that Cologne and Düsseldorf are already fully booked. This sentiment was echoed by numerous other Tesla enthusiasts on social media. Calls for the program’s expansion to other European territories have also started gaining steam, with some X users suggesting Switzerland and Finland as the next locations for FSD ride-alongs.
Ultimately, the Tesla EU Policy and Business Development Manager’s post aligns with the company’s broader FSD efforts in Europe. As per recent reports, Tesla recently demonstrated FSD’s capabilities for Rome officials. Reporters from media outlets in France and Germany have also published positive reviews of FSD’s capabilities on real-world roads.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk announces major update with texting and driving on FSD
Tesla Semi just got a huge vote of confidence from 300-truck fleet
