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Tesla registers monster batch of 28k Model 3 VINs in 3 days, 20k for int’l markets

(Photo: Nicoriquo/Reddit)

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Tesla recently exhibited what could very well be the most encouraging sign of the Model 3 ramp to date. From Friday to Sunday, Tesla registered a mammoth batch of more than 28,000 Model 3 VIN registrations, over 20,000 of which were designated for international markets. With these latest batches of filings, Tesla’s total Model 3 registrations now number 236,512.

The new registrations were reported by Model 3 VIN tracking group @Model3VINs, which tracks Tesla’s filings for the electric sedan. This latest batch also complements the more than 14,800 Model 3 VINs that were registered in the week of January 6. That’s more than 42,000 Model 3 VINs filed during the first two weeks of the first quarter alone. For perspective, the filings of the past three days alone are roughly equal to the registrations that Tesla submitted for the vehicle until early April 2018, more than eight months after the electric sedan entered production. 

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The recent batch of Model 3 VIN registrations come amidst Tesla’s ongoing push to deliver the electric car to international markets such as China and Europe, both of which represent a potentially lucrative market for the vehicle. Tesla, for one, has noted that the “mid-sized premium sedan market in Europe is more than twice as big as the same segment in the US” on its Q3 2018 Update Letter. China, on the other hand, expects its electric car market to expand this year, with the country putting a sales target of 2 million new-energy vehicles in 2020, as noted by the Nikkei Asian Review.

Overall, these monster batches of VIN registrations bode well for Tesla’s planned ramp for the Model 3. With the vehicle already saturating North America, and with the majority of remaining North American reservation holders likely holding out for the highly-anticipated, $35,000 Standard Range Model 3, delivering the electric car to other countries is pivotal for Tesla’s performance this first quarter.

This is not to say that everything will be easy for Tesla for the next few months, though. If any, the electric car maker still needs to overcome some challenges as it starts bringing the Model 3 to foreign territories. As of early January, reports indicate that Tesla is still looking to receive homologation approval to sell the Model 3 in Europe. In a statement to the Los Angeles Times, the company stated that it was working closely with regulators and that it expects to gain approval for the Model 3 after the holidays. That said, Tesla is yet to confirm if the electric sedan has received the approval of European regulators as of date.

In China, Tesla is set to start its Model 3 assault by bringing the vehicle’s top-tier variants — the Long Range AWD and Performance variant — to the country. These two vehicles are expected to start saturating the Chinese EV market as the company prepares to manufacture more affordable variants of the electric car in Gigafactory 3, which is currently undergoing construction. During Gigafactory 3’s groundbreaking event, Elon Musk stated that he expects the first locally produced Model 3 to roll out of the Shanghai facility towards the end of the year.

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For now, sightings of Model 3 batches seemingly intended for the international markets have been reported by the Tesla community. Earlier this month, Tesla enthusiasts from the United States have shared images of trucks loaded with what appeared to be European-spec Model 3 heading towards a pier. Even more recently, Tesla community and r/TeslaMotors member u/Nicoriquo shared images of a Model 3 fleet that reportedly arrived in Europe.

Simon is an experienced automotive reporter with a passion for electric cars and clean energy. Fascinated by the world envisioned by Elon Musk, he hopes to make it to Mars (at least as a tourist) someday. For stories or tips--or even to just say a simple hello--send a message to his email, simon@teslarati.com or his handle on X, @ResidentSponge.

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Investor's Corner

Tesla deliveries get a big boost in expectations from Wall Street

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tesla
Credit: Tesla

Tesla deliveries got a big boost in expectations from Wall Street firm Goldman Sachs, who believes the company will report some stronger-than-expected numbers when the second quarter comes to an end in the coming weeks.

Goldman Sachs has raised its vehicle delivery forecast for Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) in the second quarter of 2026, signaling growing confidence in the electric vehicle leader’s near-term momentum despite mixed market signals. Analyst Mark Delaney lifted the bank’s Q2 estimate to 420,000 units from a previous 405,000, surpassing the Visible Alpha consensus estimate of 400,000.

The upward revision stems from stronger-than-expected sales data across key regions. Europe stands out with projected year-over-year growth of 85-90 percent, driven by robust demand for Tesla’s Model Y and refreshed offerings. China posted high single-digit gains, while markets like South Korea and Australia also contributed positive momentum. These gains help offset mid-teens declines in U.S. deliveries through May, where broader EV market headwinds and competition persist.

Goldman extended its optimism to the full year, increasing its 2026 delivery projection to 1.73 million vehicles from 1.72 million. Longer-term forecasts remain unchanged, with 1.88 million units expected in 2027 and 1.96 million in 2028. The bank also nudged its 2026 earnings-per-share estimate higher to $1.35 from $1.30, reflecting anticipated margin benefits from higher volumes and operational efficiencies.

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Despite these positive adjustments, Goldman maintained its Neutral rating and $375 price target on Tesla shares. At current trading levels near $411, the stock sits about 8-9 percent above the target, highlighting ongoing valuation concerns even as delivery momentum builds. Tesla’s Q1 2026 deliveries totaled 358,023 units, setting a baseline for recovery expectations in the current period.

Tesla reports Q1 deliveries, missing expectations slightly

This update arrives as Tesla prepares to report official Q2 figures shortly after June 30. Investors and analysts will closely watch not only headline delivery numbers but also regional breakdowns, average selling prices, and progress on energy storage deployments and autonomous technology initiatives.

The move by Goldman Sachs underscores a broader narrative for Tesla: while legacy auto markets face softening demand and tariff uncertainties, Tesla’s global footprint and product pipeline provide resilience. Europe’s surge reflects pent-up demand and policy support for EVs, while China’s steady growth highlights Tesla’s competitive positioning against local rivals.

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Tesla still has its work cut out for it, including U.S. price sensitivity and intensifying competition. Yet Goldman’s revision adds to a series of analyst notes suggesting Q2 could mark a turning point. As Tesla pushes toward higher production rates at facilities in Fremont, Shanghai, and Berlin, sustained execution will be key to validating these higher forecasts.

We have said numerous times that deliveries are becoming a less important metric in the grand scheme of things, as AI truly takes precedence in the company’s thesis.

For Tesla bulls, the Goldman note reinforces faith in underlying demand trends. For skeptics, the unchanged rating serves as a reminder that delivery beats alone may not immediately resolve valuation debates in a high-interest-rate environment. Tesla’s stock reaction will likely hinge on the official numbers and management commentary in the coming weeks.

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Investor's Corner

Tesla and SpaceX’s biggest bull just placed a massive $1B bet on the stock

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Ron Baron on Tesla stock

Renowned investor Ron Baron, founder and CEO of Baron Capital, has once again demonstrated his unwavering faith in Elon Musk’s ventures.

Just after SpaceX’s record-breaking IPO, Baron announced he purchased an additional $1 billion in SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) shares. This move pushes Baron Capital’s total holdings in the company to a staggering $25 billion in market value, underscoring one of the most successful private-to-public investment stories in recent history.

Baron’s relationship with SpaceX dates back to 2017, when his firm began investing approximately $1.75–2 billion through secondary markets and employee tender offers at valuations around $20–22 billion.

By the time of the IPO, which valued SpaceX at over $2 trillion with shares closing near $161, those early stakes had generated more than $13 billion in unrealized gains. Post-IPO, Baron’s position ballooned further, reflecting the company’s meteoric rise driven by reusable rocketry, Starlink’s global satellite internet constellation, Starshield defense applications, and ambitious plans for orbital infrastructure.

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In a recent interview, Baron articulated his bullish outlook with characteristic enthusiasm.

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“I think we’re going to make hundreds of billions of dollars,” he stated, emphasizing that SpaceX’s achievements in rocketry and satellite technology are “not possible for anyone else to accomplish.” He envisions the company as a cornerstone of humanity’s multi-planetary future, potentially reaching valuations of $10–30 trillion within 10–15 years.

Baron has repeatedly affirmed he has no plans to sell, viewing SpaceX as a “lifetime investment” alongside Tesla.

Tesla bull Ron Baron reveals $100M SpaceX investment, sees 3-5x return on TSLA

This conviction stems from SpaceX’s unparalleled execution. The company has revolutionized access to space with Falcon 9 reusability, deployed thousands of Starlink satellites, and is advancing Starship for Mars missions and point-to-point Earth transport.

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Baron highlights emerging opportunities like space-based AI data centers and direct-to-cell satellite connectivity, positioning SpaceX at the forefront of a new space economy projected to generate trillions in value.

Critics may question the lofty projections amid high valuations and execution risks, but Baron’s track record speaks volumes. His Tesla holdings, initiated in the mid-2010s, have also delivered outsized returns. As one of the largest institutional holders of SpaceX pre-IPO, Baron Capital’s funds, such as Baron Partners, benefited immensely from valuation markups.

Baron’s $1 billion IPO purchase signals deep confidence in SpaceX’s post-IPO trajectory. In an era of short-term market noise, his strategy exemplifies patient capital: backing visionary leadership and transformative technology.

For investors watching the space sector, it serves as a powerful endorsement that the final frontier may indeed yield the next great wealth-creation engine. As Baron puts it, SpaceX isn’t just building rockets—it’s trying to “save humanity” by expanding our horizons beyond Earth.

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Elon Musk

SpaceX (SPCX) IPO is live today at $135: Here’s exactly what you need to know

SpaceX priced its historic IPO at $135 per share today, raising a record $75 billion.

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SpaceX officially priced its initial public offering at $135 per share, offering 555,555,555 shares of Class A common stock and raising $75 billion in what is the largest IPO in stock market history. Shares are set to begin trading on the Nasdaq Global Select Market on Friday, June 12, under the ticker symbol SPCX. The previous record holder was Saudi Aramco’s 2019 offering at $29 billion, followed by Alibaba’s $22 billion offering in 2014.

At $135 per share and roughly 555.6 million shares, the implied valuation sits near $1.75 trillion, which would make SpaceX roughly the seventh largest company in the United States, just above Tesla’s current market cap. Regular investors can request shares at the IPO price through Robinhood, Fidelity, Charles Schwab, SoFi, and E*TRADE, though the deal is heavily oversubscribed and most retail allocations will be partial or unfilled. Once trading opens June 12, anyone with a brokerage account can buy SPCX on the open market.

SpaceX’s amended S-1 is sparking a major Tesla merger conversation

 

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The valuation is anchored primarily by Starlink. Starlink crossed 10 million subscribers as of February 2026 and is adding 750,000 to 1.5 million new users per month, with the connectivity segment already posting a $1.19 billion profit last quarter. The offering also bundles in xAI following SpaceX’s all-stock merger earlier this year, adding Grok and the Colossus supercomputer to the investment thesis. As Teslarati reported, Starlink ended 2025 with $10 billion in revenue, a figure analysts project could reach $24 billion by end of 2026.

Wedbush analyst Dan Ives has been vocal in his support. “I think the time is right,” Ives said, adding that the offering expands the Elon Musk ecosystem rather than competing with Tesla. An average 12-month price target of $165 per share represents roughly 22% upside from the IPO price. Not everyone agrees – Motley Fool noted xAI is spending $1 billion per month playing catch-up to OpenAI and Anthropic.

Musk founded SpaceX in 2002 with a single stated purpose. “Elon founded SpaceX with a goal to change humanity, to make us a multi-planet species,” CFO Bret Johnsen said in the company’s retail roadshow video this week. Musk himself has been more direct: “We are building the systems and technologies necessary to provide global connectivity on Earth and beyond, to understand the true nature of the universe, and to extend the light of consciousness to the stars.”

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