Connect with us

Investor's Corner

Tesla ends Q4 2018 with a flourish, passes 190k total Model 3 VIN registrations

(Photo: Tesla)

Published

on

Tesla started 2018 as an electric car maker struggling to ramp the production of its most ambitious vehicle. As Q4 2018 comes to a close, it is becoming apparent that Tesla is closing the year as a carmaker that can hold its own against the veterans of the hyper-competitive auto industry. Seemingly as a final flourish to an otherwise historic 2018, Tesla has registered what could very well be its final large batch of Model 3 VINs for the quarter, breaching the 190,000 barrier for filings of the electric sedan.

Twitter group @Model3VINs, which tracks registrations for the electric sedan, recently reported that Tesla filed a rather large batch of 3,569 vehicles, comprised of both Dual Motor and RWD units. With this latest batch, Tesla has broken the 190,000 mark in total Model 3 filings to date. Among this number, more than 75,000 were registered in the fourth quarter alone. As noted by this graph provided by the Model 3 VIN tracking group, the Q4 2018 is characterized by a massive influx of RWD filings, possibly as a result of the introduction, production, and deliveries of the Mid Range Model 3. 

Tesla’s Model 3 VIN filings over the past quarters. (Photo: Model3VINs.com)

To keep the company’s Q4 Model 3 VIN registrations in perspective, it should be noted that Tesla was only able to breach the 75,000 mark back in mid-July, roughly a year since starting the production of the vehicle. For a company that encountered hiccups with the Model 3 ramp, being able to register 12 months worth of cars in the past 90 days is impressive.

Tesla’s Model 3 VIN registrations for the fourth quarter comes amidst reports that the company has reached a point where it is capable of producing 1,000 units of the electric sedan every day. As reflected by an alleged leaked email from Elon Musk late last month, as well as by social media posts from Tesla employees in the days and weeks after, it appears that the company’s Model 3 output continues to improve.

Advertisement

https://twitter.com/VickiSalvador/status/1074397006318120960

With Tesla at a point where it is capable of sustained levels of Model 3 production, the company is now starting to lay the foundations for the electric sedan’s international ramp in 2019. In Europe, for one, reports have emerged pointing to Tesla shipping 3,000 Model 3 per week starting in February. Deliveries of the Model 3 in China are also expected to begin within the next few months.

At the core of the Model 3, though, lies the vehicle and its demand. In several key regions such as the United States, after all, the Model 3 competes in a market that widely prefers SUVs and larger vehicles. Nevertheless, as the electric sedan’s sales in the US and Canada have shown so far, the Model 3 is capable of standing out despite being a passenger car in an SUV dominated region.

As the Model 3 prepares to breach the foreign markets, Wall Street analyst Dan Ives from Wedbush Securities noted that demand for the vehicle would likely be strong in 2019. According to the analyst, the demand for the car in regions such as Europe — which still have notable passenger car markets — would likely reduce Tesla’s need to raise capital in the near future.

“Demand for Tesla’s Model 3 mid-size electric sedan looks very strong into 2019 and beyond. While there are worries that some European unit shipments might spill over into Q2 and out of Q1, we believe the Street is well aware of this potential timing dynamic as underlying pent-up demand looks robust on this new European frontier for Musk & Co heading into 2019, with China also a major growth catalyst on the heels of recent price cuts,” the analyst wrote.

Advertisement

As a cherry on top for the already successful vehicle, the Model 3 recently received the 2018 Car of the Year award from The Detroit News, with longtime gearhead Henry Payne stating that the electric sedan is “Apple on wheels.”

Simon is an experienced automotive reporter with a passion for electric cars and clean energy. Fascinated by the world envisioned by Elon Musk, he hopes to make it to Mars (at least as a tourist) someday. For stories or tips--or even to just say a simple hello--send a message to his email, simon@teslarati.com or his handle on X, @ResidentSponge.

Comments

Elon Musk

NYC Comptroller moves to sue Tesla for securities violations

Published

on

MINISTÉRIO DAS COMUNICAÇÕES, CC BY 2.0 , via Wikimedia Commons

New York City Comptroller Brad Lander is urging the NYC Law Department to sue Tesla for securities violations related to CEO Elon Musk’s involvement in the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE).

Lander said the basis for the potential litigation lies on “material misstatements from Tesla claiming that CEO Elon Musk spends significant time on the company and is highly active in its management, despite his helming the Trump Administration’s DOGE initiative.”

Advertisement

It is a common complaint amongst some Tesla shareholders who are less than enthusiastic about Musk’s involvement in DOGE. Some feel as if Musk is not concerned about Tesla, especially as the stock has dropped over 28 percent this year. However, Musk has continued to double down on his position within the U.S. government.

Nevertheless, Musk’s position in Tesla is still very apparent. He headed an All-Hands meeting just two weeks ago that showed his commitment to the company as he outlined future plans and even joked to employees that they should hold onto their stock.

However, Lander believes Musk’s involvement has hurt New York City pension systems, which have lost over $300 million so far this year. He said:

“In less than three months, Tesla stock has lost nearly 40% of its value, with losses over $300 million for the New York City pension systems. We have long expressed concerns that the Tesla board has failed to provide independent oversight, or to require that Musk – or someone else – serve as a full-time CEO.”

Lander went on to say that “material misstatements from Tesla misled investors about his role at the company,” stating this was his reasoning for calling on the Law Department to file securities litigation against the company.

Advertisement

He believes taking it to court will force changes and will return Tesla shares back to a level that will benefit pension systems in New York City:

“Shareholder litigation could force the changes in governance and leadership that Tesla needs, and help recover some of our pension systems’ losses. Otherwise, we may need to consider divestment.”

The pension systems would be able to pursue financial damages to cover losses and seek governance changes, it says.

Continue Reading

Investor's Corner

Tesla (TSLA) shares company-compiled Q1 2025 delivery consensus

Analysts are expecting the electric car maker to post 377,592 deliveries for Q1 2025.

Published

on

Credit: Tesla China

Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) has released its Q1 2025 company-compiled delivery consensus of sell-side analysts. Based on Tesla’s release, it appears that analysts are expecting Tesla to post conservative vehicle delivery results for the first quarter.

Images of Tesla’s Q1 2025 company-compiled consensus were shared recently on social media. 

The Consensus

As could be seen in Tesla’s first quarter 2025 company-compiled vehicle delivery consensus, analysts are expecting the electric car maker to post 377,592 deliveries for Q1 2025. Analysts expect this number to be comprised of 351,893 Model 3/Model Y and 21,241 other models.

The company-compiled consensus also suggests that Tesla will see total deliveries of 1,851,001 vehicles this Full Year 2025. From this number, analysts expect 1,693,397 units of the Model 3 and Model Y and 145,162 units of Tesla’s other models.

The sources

Tesla’s company-compiled consensus was based on estimates from 27 firms. These include Daiwa, DB, Wedbush, Cowen, OpCo, Canaccord, Baird, Wolfe, Exane, GS, Evercore ISI, Barclays, PSC, Mizuho, BofA, Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley, Truist, UBS, Jefferies, Guggenheim, JPM, Redburn, Needham & Co, HSBC, Cantor Fitzgerald, and William Blair. 

Advertisement

FactSet expectations

As noted in an Investor’s Business Daily report, FactSet estimates suggest that Tesla will see vehicle deliveries of 407,900 units in Q1 2025. Such a number is quite optimistic considering that Tesla’s sales of its best-selling vehicle, the Model Y, were throttled during the quarter due to the company’s transition to the new Model Y. 

Beyond Q1 deliveries, Tesla’s first quarter vehicle delivery results could trigger revisions to the company’s full-year delivery and earnings forecasts. FactSet data shows Q1 earnings estimates hitting 48 cents per share, down from 57 cents in late January and 74 cents late last year. For 2025, analysts now see earnings per share climbing 13% to $2.74, a drop from $3.31 before the Q4 earnings release.

Continue Reading

Elon Musk

Elon Musk clarifies Trump tariff effect on Tesla: “The cost impact is not trivial”

The U.S. President has stated that Elon Musk stayed silent and provided no input in the administration’s tariffs.

Published

on

MINISTÉRIO DAS COMUNICAÇÕES, CC BY 2.0 , via Wikimedia Commons

U.S. President Donald Trump’s plan to implement a 25% tariff on non-U.S.-made vehicles starting next week would affect American electric car maker Tesla. 

This was confirmed by CEO Elon Musk in a recent post on social media platform X.

Musk and Trump

While Elon Musk works closely with the Trump administration due to his role in the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), the U.S. president has emphasized that the Tesla CEO never asks for favors. This was highlighted in his recent comments, when he stated that Elon Musk stayed silent and provided no input in the administration’s 25% auto tariffs.

When asked by reporters if the new tariffs would be good for Tesla, Trump noted that they may be “net neutral or they may be good.” The U.S. president also pointed to Tesla’s automotive plants in Fremont, California and Austin, Texas, which produce vehicles that are sold in the country. “Anybody that has plants in the United States — it’s going to be good for them,” Trump noted.

Tesla Affected

In a post on X, Elon Musk clarified that the Trump administration’s tariffs would affect the prices of vehicle parts that are sourced from other countries. This was a concern that Tesla previously outlined in a letter to the U.S. Trade Representative, which noted that even with “aggressive localization” of its supply chain, “certain parts and components are difficult or impossible to source within the United States.”

Advertisement

As per Musk in his recent post on X, the cost impact of the Trump administration’s tariffs is no joke. “To be clear, this will affect the price of parts in Tesla cars that come from other countries. The cost impact is not trivial,” Musk wrote in his post.

Potential Effects

Reactions to Musk’s comments from users of the social media platform were varied, with some speculating that the Trump auto tariffs could result in Teslas becoming more expensive in the United States. Despite this, the potential increases in Tesla’s vehicle prices might not be as notable as other cars, particularly those that are produced outside the country.

Continue Reading

Trending