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Tesla releases Q2 results: Sets quarterly production record

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This is a quick cut of the main items from the shareholder letter outlining Tesla Q2 financial results:

Summary

  • Completed Model 3 design phase
  • Increased automotive gross margin on both Model S and Model X
  • Exited Q2 consistently producing nearly 2,000 vehicles/week
  • Production and demand on track to support 50,000 deliveries in 2H 2016
  • Merger agreement to acquire SolarCity signed, subject to shareholder vote

Production

“In Q2, we delivered 14,402 new vehicles consisting of 9,764 Model S and 4,638 Model X, which was slightly higher than what we stated in our July announcement. Model S remains the market share leader in North America and Europe among all comparably priced four-door sedans, and Model X is quickly gaining ground against similarly priced SUVs in all regions.”

“We exited Q2 consistently producing nearly 2,000 vehicles per week and our total Q2 production of 18,345 vehicles constituted a new quarterly production record, up 18% from Q1 and up 43% from Q2 last year.”

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These numbers are in line with the 14,370 new vehicles deliveries and the “just under 2,000 vehicles per week”  reported in the July 3rd release. So nothing new here.

One good number is that “production hours per vehicle also declined throughout the quarter for both cars”, indicating the ability to continue to produce more cars per hour.

Gigafactory

“Gigafactory construction remains on target to support volume production of Model 3 in late 2017, and we recently accelerated construction to reach a rate of 35 GWh/year of cell production in 2018. This will allow us to meet the needs of our accelerated Model 3 production plan.”

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Notice that the 35GWh/year of cell production is currently the total worldwide output.

Earnings

“Our Q2 GAAP net loss was $293 million or a $2.09 loss per share on 140 million basic shares, while our non-GAAP net loss was $150 million, or a $1.06 loss per basic share. Both figures include a $0.05 per basic share loss related mostly to losses from foreign currency transactions.”

According to MarketWatch, “Analysts polled by FactSet [expected] Tesla to report an adjusted loss of 59 cents a share in the second quarter. […] Estimize, which crowdsources estimates from analysts, fund managers, and academics, expected Tesla to report a loss of 54 cents a share, based on 379 estimates.”.

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Loss is higher than anticipated. This number scared a few traders that bid the stock lower to 217 in after hours trading, but the stock quickly retraced back to 228, higher than the daily close. For a company like Tesla, where the price is based on future expectations, the earning numbers are really not what counts.

Revenue

Total Q2 GAAP revenue was $1.3 billion, while non-GAAP revenue was $1.6 billion for the quarter, up 31% from a year ago. Total Q2 gross margin was 21.6% on a GAAP basis and 20.8% on a non-GAAP basis.

Also according to MarketWatch, “FactSet analysts [were] expecting sales to reach $1.63 billion in the quarter, compared with $1.20 billion in the second quarter of 2015. […] Estimize [was] expecting sales of $1.55 billion.”

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Revenue is pretty much matching expectations, and this will be seen positively by Wall Street.

Gross Margins

“Q2 Automotive gross margin was 23.1% on a GAAP basis. On a non-GAAP basis, gross margin excluding ZEV credits increased over 200 basis points from Q1 to 21.9%. We recognized an insignificant amount of ZEV credit revenue in Q2. The strong sequential gross margin increase was primarily due to improved manufacturing for Model X and favorable pricing for Model S. Our warranty accrual rates on new vehicles were generally consistent with Q1.”

Another good number that Wall Street likes a lot: increasing gross margins!

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“We delivered fewer cars in Q2 than originally planned as a result of our steep production ramp, which resulted in almost half of Q2 production occurring in the final four weeks of the quarter. Given inflection points in the production ramp and firm shipping cutoffs, shifting production by even a short period of time had a disproportionate impact on the number of cars that were delivered by quarter end.”

This is also nothing new as it was originally disclosed in the July 3rd release.

Services

“Q2 Services and other revenue was $88 million, up 15% from a year ago but down sequentially. The decline was primarily due to having fewer pre-owned cars to sell because of the need to use them to expand our service loaner fleet. Q2 Service and other gross margin was 2.5%, down from 4.7% in Q1, but generally in line with our expectations.”

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Stores

“We are also accelerating store openings and plan to add a new retail location every four days on average during the remainder of Q3 and through Q4. We are adding stores in new population-dense markets like Taipei, Seoul, and Mexico City, while also adding stores in our most mature markets like California.”

That is about 45 new stores by the end of the year.

Outlook

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“Production and demand are on track to support deliveries of approximately 50,000 new Model S and Model X vehicles during the second half of 2016.”

Given the Q1 and Q2 reported deliveries, the 2016 deliveries are now slated to be around 79,000, pretty close to the bottom of the previously reported 80,000 to 90,000 range.

“Vehicle production efficiency is improving rapidly and we are now increasing our weekly production rate even further. Barring any further supply constraints, we plan to exit Q3 with a steady production rate of 2,200 vehicles per week, and plan to increase production to 2,400 vehicles per week in Q4.”

“Despite the disciplined pace of capital spending in the first half of this year, we still expect to invest about $2.25 billion in capital expenditures in 2016, in support of our accelerated production plan for Model 3.”

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What is not there

Surprisingly there is nothing in the letter about the pending $2.6 billion SolarCity acquisition.

Full Q2 Results

From the Tesla Q2 Shareholder Letter.

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Initial Market Reaction

$TSLA stock immediately dropped to $217 right after the close of regular market trading, but after about an hour of extended hours trading it was back to the previous daily close of $225.30, indicating that we should not expect much fireworks when the stock market reopens on Thursday.

Wall Street seems relieved that the weekly production numbers are in line with expectations, and that the corresponding “production ramp” is still in play.

 

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Elon Musk

SpaceX’s newest Starmind will make earth data centers obsolete

Elon Musk confirmed Starmind as SpaceX’s AI satellite constellation name, targeting one million orbital compute nodes.

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Elon Musk confirmed that Starmind will be the official name of SpaceX’s planned AI satellite constellation, following a trademark filing by xAI that surfaced earlier this week. Starmind is what’s being described to the FCC as a constellation of up to one million AI satellites

It’s worth noting that SpaceX’s Starlink communication satellite and Starmind are built on the same orbital infrastructure concept but serve entirely different purposes. Starlink is a connectivity network, with satellites receiving and relaying data between points on Earth, and functioning as a high-speed internet backbone in space. The satellites themselves do not process or think, and move information from one place to another, the same function a fiber cable performs underground.

SpaceX just forced Verizon, AT&T and T-Mobile to team up for the first time in history

Starmind, on the other hand, is something completely different, and tather than moving data, its satellites would compute data through artificial intelligence and directly in orbit using onboard processors powered by large solar arrays. Where a Starlink satellite is essentially a very fast pipe, a Starmind satellite is a server. The practical implication is that Starmind would allow AI models to run inference, process queries, and generate outputs from space, then beam results down to users anywhere on Earth within milliseconds, and without the data ever needing to travel to a terrestrial data center.

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Starship will be able to carry 30 to 50 AI1 satellites per launch, delivering the equivalent of dozens of server racks per flight, with no land acquisition, no power grid approval, and no cooling infrastructure required on the ground.

SpaceX is pursuing this new technology as terrestrial data centers are running into hard limits such as lack of physical space, community opposition, and power and water consumption at a scale that is increasingly difficult to permit. Space has unlimited solar power, natural vacuum cooling, and no zoning boards. Musk said in a June 8 video presentation that he expects space to become the lowest-cost location to deploy AI compute within two to three years. Two AI1 prototypes are scheduled to launch in early 2027, with volume production targeted for the end of that year at a new facility called Gigasat.

The real world applications Starmind enables extend well beyond powering Grok. A constellation of orbiting AI processors could run inference workloads for any paying customer, anywhere on Earth, with latency measured in milliseconds rather than the seconds associated with ground-based cloud routing across continents. Starmind, if it scales as described, would make SpaceX the landlord of AI compute the same way Starlink made it the landlord of satellite internet.

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Investor's Corner

SpaceX makes $20 billion move to optimize its balance sheet

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Credit: SpaceX

SpaceX announced today that it commenced its first-ever public bond offering, marking a significant step in the newly public company’s capital markets strategy.

The company announced an offering of senior unsecured notes expected to raise at least $20 billion.

The move comes just a short time after SpaceX completed one of the largest initial public offerings in history. In mid-June, the company priced shares at $135 and raised more than $85 billion, propelling founder Elon Musk’s net worth past the trillion-dollar mark and giving the firm substantial liquidity.

According to the company’s SEC filing, the net proceeds from the notes will be used primarily to repay in full the outstanding borrowings under its existing bridge loan facility, cover related fees and expenses, and fund general corporate purposes. The offering is being conducted under Rule 144A, as well as Regulation S, targeting qualified institutional buyers and non-U.S. investors. Notes will be unsecured obligations ranking equally with other unsubordinated debt.

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The $20 billion bridge loan was used to refinance approximately $17.5 billion in higher-cost “junk” debt tied to X and xAI. SpaceX had merged with xAI in February 2026 in an all-stock deal. The bridge facility, which matures in September 2027, had represented the bulk of SpaceX’s long-term debt.

SpaceX officially acquires xAI, merging rockets with AI expertise

In connection with the bond launch, SpaceX disclosed it held approximately $100.8 billion in cash and cash equivalents as of June 19. Investor calls began on the announcement date, with pricing and launch expected shortly thereafter. Rating agencies have assigned investment-grade ratings to the proposed bonds, reflecting confidence in SpaceX’s dominant position in commercial launches and the growth trajectory of its Starlink internet offering.

The debt raise also allows SpaceX to optimize its balance sheet by replacing short-term, higher-cost bridge financing with longer-date, lower-cost fixed-income securities. This provides greater financial flexibility to support capital-intensive initiatives, including the development of Starship, the expansion of the Starlink constellation, and the integration of AI capabilities following the xAI combination.

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SpaceX shares (NASDAQ: SPCX) fell sharply on the news, dropping over 16 percent overall on the market on Monday. The stock had surged initially after debuting but pulled back amid profit-taking and broader market dynamics.

Overall, the bond offering underscores SpaceX’s transition to a mature public company with access to diverse funding sources. It positions the firm to pursue its long-term vision of multiplanetary expansion and AI infrastructure, while maintaining a disciplined approach to its capital structure in a high-growth but capital-heavy industry.

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Investor's Corner

SpaceX is launching a secret spacecraft that could change how things are made in space

SpaceX’s secret disk-shaped Starfall capsule is targeting a market no reentry vehicle has cracked.

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SpaceX is targeting Tuesday, June 23 for the first flight of Starfall, a reentry capsule the company has developed almost entirely in private. The Falcon 9 launch window opens at 6:43 a.m. ET from Space Launch Complex 40 at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station, with a backup window available the same time on June 24. SpaceX has made no public announcement about the vehicle, only providing launch details. Everything known about it has come through FAA and FCC regulatory filings.

What makes Starfall different starts with its shape. Rather than the traditional cone used by Dragon and every other cargo return capsule in operation, Starfall is a flat disk that measures roughly  10.2 feet (3.1 meters) wide and just 2.5 feet (0.75 meters) tall, and weighing 4,630 pounds (2,100 kg) and capable of returning up to 2,200 pounds (1,000 kilograms) of payload from orbit. The disk geometry maximizes structural efficiency and payload volume relative to mass, and the heat shield mechanically jettisons just before splashdown, allowing recovery teams to retrieve both the capsule and the shield separately from the Pacific Ocean.

The difference with Starfall from existing competitors, such as Varda Space Industries, which has largely built the orbital manufacturing market and returns heavy payloads per flight is that Starfall’s specification is roughly 30 times more per mission, and is designed to be mass-produced and launched on either Falcon 9 or Starship. That combination of volume and launch access is something no standalone startup can replicate, and it puts SpaceX in direct competition with the companies that currently pay it to reach orbit.

SpaceX to launch military missile tracking satellites through new Space Force contract

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The intended market is orbital manufacturing: pharmaceuticals, protein crystals, semiconductors, and advanced optical fiber that physically cannot be produced in the presence of gravity. FAA documents describe Starfall’s long-term purpose as building a “self-sustaining commercial in-space manufacturing market” and as a potential successor to the industrial capabilities of the International Space Station, which is set to retire in the late 2020s. Military rapid global cargo delivery is a parallel application under active discussion with the Pentagon.

The reason some industries seek manufacturing in space comes down to gravity. On Earth, gravity causes materials to settle, separate, and deform during production. In microgravity, those constraints disappear.

SpaceX’s already controls launch access, which means it currently functions as the landlord for every competitor in the orbital manufacturing return space. Starfall converts that landlord position into vertical ownership, and it would no longer just carry other companies’ capsules to orbit, but rather operate the capsule, own the return logistics, and capture the service revenue directly. Viewed alongside Starlink, Colossus, and the xAI merger, Starfall fits a consistent pattern: SpaceX identifying infrastructure layers that others depend on and moving to own them outright. Orbital manufacturing return is the next layer on that list.

If Tuesday’s reentry, parachute sequence, and recovery demonstration goes as planned, the second FAA-approved test flight follows. A successful pair of demos would position SpaceX to begin offering Starfall as a commercial service, likely first to pharmaceutical and materials science customers before scaling toward the military and broader manufacturing segments.

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