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The Tesla Semi’s butterfly effect will change the face of heavy-duty freight routes
In a recent interview, Auke Hoekstra, a researcher at Eindhoven University of Technology and an electric vehicle expert, explained how battery-electric trucks like the Tesla Semi could end up dominating heavy-duty freight routes in regions like Europe. According to the EV expert, weight and range limitations that are usually associated with electric vehicles may very well be quite irrelevant when it comes to the real-world use of the electric long-haulers.
While addressing questions from Clean Energy Wire, Hoekstra explained that skeptics of vehicles like the Tesla Semi often take the hardest business case that a diesel truck is able to manage. An example of this is a multi-day trip with a team of two drivers who cover thousands of kilometers in one trip. The EV expert explained that while traditional diesels still hold an advantage against their battery-electric competition in this scenario, this edge disappears when one looks at the greater trucking market.
“My research in the Netherlands has revealed that 80% of trucks – even the really big rigs, the semis – travel 750 kilometers per day at the very most, and many cover far shorter distances. That’s because if you want to cover more kilometers, things become very expensive very quickly, because you have to pay overtime, etcetera. So, in general, you can’t make a driver do more than 750 kilometers per day. Therefore, this is the range you have to hit with about 80 percent of trucks.
“Additionally, almost all trucks return to base at the end of the day – which creates ideal conditions for charging. We still have this romantic idea that truckers are on the road for weeks on end, away from home. But this scenario has become relatively rare. Most truckers simply move stuff from Rotterdam port to Venlo, halfway to Germany’s Ruhr area, to take an example from home… Many truckers do this sort of trip a couple of times per day, and then return home. So, you can charge the vehicle overnight at a default location. This means you don’t have a chicken and egg problem – you can arrange for the infrastructure and for the truck at the same time,” the EV expert remarked.
Interestingly enough, Elon Musk has recently remarked that Tesla is looking to release the Semi with a range that falls well within Hoekstra’s numbers. While speaking at the European Battery Conference, Musk stated that he believes it is feasible to achieve 800 kilometers of range for the Semi quite easily, and he also sees a path, over time at least, for the Class 8 truck to achieve an even more impressive 1,000 kilometers per charge. Such numbers can go a long way towards shifting the market’s perception of all-electric long-haulers and their limitations. Hoekstra, for his part, noted that such a scenario has already happened before with the original Tesla Roadster.
“I do remember that in the car market, things really changed when the Roadster hit the market. That really changed the conversation. It changed the whole perception of electric vehicles. The conventional wisdom back then was that you can only use them on short distances in the city. And suddenly this car appeared, and everything was possible.
“Within the next couple of years, we’ll see the first Tesla semi-trucks on the road. This will have a similarly huge impact on the conversation about electric trucks. You can just point to it and say: “Look, it’s moving there, and it is doing 800 kilometers.” Suddenly, all those people who say ‘it cannot be done’ within truck companies will hear their boss replying: ‘Well, our competitor can do it – so you will have to do it, too.’” Hoekstra said.
What’s quite remarkable is that this is not even the most exciting part of the Semi’s butterfly effect on the trucking sector. If the Tesla Semi finds solid footing in the trucking market in the same way the Model 3 found a good niche among premium midsize sedan buyers, a “Tesla Effect” of sorts could happen on the trucking market. This could come in the form of other battery-electric trucks being developed for the long-haul market. This should, in turn, result in a massive innovation push from several truck makers, similar to what is happening now with companies like Tesla, Lucid, Rivian, and veterans like Ford and GM in the consumer EV segment.
Tesla Board Chair Robyn Denholm met with Bloomberg this morning to discuss a variety of topics, but perhaps one of the most interesting was her comments on what is being done to protect company CEO Elon Musk.
After the assassination of right-wing political commentator Charlie Kirk this week, there have been concerns about Musk’s safety, as well as that of other high-profile business leaders and political figures.
Earlier this week, Musk said himself that his security detail would be increased significantly following Kirk’s death, a move that many investors and fans of the company had requested because of political violence.
Elon Musk assures Tesla investors he will enhance his security detail
“Definitely need to enhance security,” Musk said. Tesla spent $3.3 million on Musk’s security in 2024 and January and February 2025. For reference, Meta spent over $27 million on Mark Zuckerberg’s security last year, which is higher than any other tech CEO.
During Denholm’s appearance on Bloomberg TV earlier today, she stated that the company has been focused on Musk’s security detail for “many years,” especially considering he is one of the richest people on Earth and holds an incredible amount of influence.
“It is something that we take very seriously; he takes it very seriously as well. So, again, from a board perspective, it is something we’ve discussed at length,” Denholm said.
Tesla Board Chair Robyn Denholm on increased security for CEO Elon Musk:
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) September 12, 2025
Denholm added that she believes “there is not anyone in a boardroom that is not touched by what has happened with Charlie Kirk.”
Although Musk’s political involvement has toned down significantly in the past, he still has enemies, especially based on groups that oppose him and the company specifically. Based on this week’s events, it feels that increased security is a necessary expense Tesla must account for.
Investor's Corner
Tesla bear turns bullish for two reasons as stock continues boost
“I think from a trading perspective, it looks very interesting,” Nathan said, citing numerous signs of strength, such as holding its 200-day moving average and holding against its resistance level.
A Tesla bear is changing his tune, turning bullish for two reasons as the company’s stock has continued to get a boost over the past month.
Dan Nathan, a notorious skeptic of Tesla shares, said he is changing his tune, at least in the short term, on the company’s stock because of “technicals and sentiment,” believing the company is on track for a strong Q3, but also an investment story that will slowly veer away from its automotive business.
“I think from a trading perspective, it looks very interesting,” Nathan said, citing numerous signs of strength, such as holding its 200-day moving average and holding against its resistance level.
He also said he believes a rally for the stock could continue as it heads into the end of the quarter, especially as the $7,500 electric vehicle tax credit is coming to an end at the end of the month.
With that being said, he believes the consensus for Q3 deliveries is “probably low,” as he believes Wall Street is likely underestimating what Tesla will bring to the table on October 1 or 2 when it reports numbers for the quarter.
Tesla bear Dan Nathan has flipped his script on Tesla $TSLA shares, citing “technicals and sentiment”
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) September 12, 2025
Tesla shares are already up over five percent today, with gains exceeding nine percent over the past five trading days, and more than fourteen percent in the past month.
While some analysts are looking at the performance of other Mag 7 stocks, movement on rates from the Federal Reserve, and other broader market factors as reasoning for Tesla’s strong performance, it appears some movement could be related to the company’s recent developments instead.
Over the past week, Tesla has made some strides in its Robotaxi program, including a new license to test the platform in the State of Nevada, which we reported on.
Tesla lands regulatory green light for Robotaxi testing in new state
Additionally, the company is riding the tails of the end of the EV tax credit, as inventory, both new and used, is running extremely low, generally speaking. Many markets do not have any vehicles to purchase as of right now, making delivery by September 30 extremely difficult.
However, there has been some adjustments to the guidelines by the IRS, which can be read here:
Tesla is trading at around $389 at 10:56 a.m. on the East Coast.
News
Tesla lands regulatory green light for Robotaxi testing in new state
This will be the third state in total where Tesla is operating Robotaxi, following Austin and California.
Tesla has landed a regulatory green light to test its Robotaxi platform in a new state, less than three months after the ride-hailing service launched in Texas.
Tesla first launched its driverless Robotaxi suite in Austin, Texas, back on June 22. Initially offering rides to a small group of people, Tesla kept things limited, but this was not to be the mentality for very long.
It continued to expand the rider population, the service area, and the vehicle fleet in Austin.
The company also launched rides in the Bay Area, but it does use a person in the driver’s seat to maintain safety. In Austin, the “Safety Monitor” is present in the passenger’s seat during local rides, and in the driver’s seat for routes that involve highway driving.
Tesla is currently testing the Robotaxi platform in other states. We reported that it was testing in Tempe, Arizona, as validation vehicles are traveling around the city in preparation for Robotaxi.
Tesla looks to make a big splash with Robotaxi in a new market
Tesla is also hoping to launch in Florida and New York, as job postings have shown the company’s intention to operate there.
However, it appears it will launch in Nevada before those states, as the company submitted its application to obtain a Testing Registry certification on September 3. It was processed by the state’s Department of Motor Vehicles Office of Business Licensing on September 10.
NEWS: Tesla has officially received approval from the Nevada DMV to start testing autonomous vehicles (robotaxis) on public roads.
Today, I confirmed directly with the Nevada DMV that @Tesla‘s application to obtain a Testing Registry certification was approved by the DMV Office… pic.twitter.com/hx5JhHBFiD
— Sawyer Merritt (@SawyerMerritt) September 11, 2025
It will then need to self-certify for operations, essentially meaning they will need to comply with various state requirements.
This will be the third state in total where Tesla is operating Robotaxi, following Austin and California.
CEO Elon Musk has stated that he believes Robotaxi will be available to at least half of the U.S. population by the end of the year. Geographically, Tesla will need to make incredible strides over the final four months of the year to achieve this.
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Tesla bear turns bullish for two reasons as stock continues boost
Tesla lands regulatory green light for Robotaxi testing in new state
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