More than half of all short-sellers who were betting against Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) at the beginning of 2021 have ditched their positions, new data shows.
Tesla, for a long time, was one of the most shorted stocks on Wall Street. Skeptics of the electric automaker included many notable names like David Einhorn, Jim Chanos, Mark Spiegel, and others, and they were some of the most vocal short-sellers in the financial market for some time. Last year after Tesla’s massive 700% rise in stock price and valuation, many short sellers were forced to admit defeat and move on from shorting Tesla. The losses had just become too much to handle. As Tesla stock has increased once again in 2021, with most of the gains coming in the past 30 days, short-selling interest on Tesla stock has fallen significantly and is at less than half of its volume compared to January 2021.
S3 Partners, an analytics firm that has regularly tracked Tesla’s short interest, states that it is down to about 3.6% from 8% at the beginning of the year.
S3’s Ihor Dusaniwsky, who holds the title of Managing Director of Predictive Analytics, told Reuters that shorted shares stood at about 29.5 million, down from 60.6 million in January. However, short interest still amounts to nearly $36.1 billion, more than any other stock on the market, S3 added.
Teslarati has attempted to contact several notable short-sellers in the past several weeks, especially as Tesla’s stock price has climbed due to massive Model 3 purchase order from Hertz. We were able to contact several short-sellers, including David Einhorn’s Greenlight Capital Re, who was unwilling to comment on their current position with Tesla stock. Notable short-seller Mark Spiegel did confirm that he still holds a short position on Tesla stock.
In October, a report from IHS Markit Ltd. indicated that shorts were also at record lows due to the stock’s incredible run over the past 18 months. Jim Chanos, who was one of CEO Elon Musk’s most notable skeptics, stated that Musk had done a great job and admitted defeat.
At the time of writing, Tesla stock was down nearly 3% as Elon Musk prepares to offload 10% of his stock as the result of a Twitter poll.
Elon Musk says he’ll sell 10% of his Tesla stock under one condition: If Twitter says so
I’d love to hear from you! If you have any comments, concerns, or questions, please email me at joey@teslarati.com. You can also reach me on Twitter @KlenderJoey, or if you have news tips, you can email us at tips@teslarati.com.
Disclosure: Joey Klender is a TSLA Shareholder.
Investor's Corner
Barclays lifts Tesla price target ahead of Q3 earnings amid AI momentum
Analyst Dan Levy adjusted his price target for TSLA stock from $275 to $350, while maintaining an “Equal Weight” rating for the EV maker.
Barclays has raised its price target for Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA), with the firm’s analysts stating that the electric vehicle maker is approaching its Q3 earnings with two contrasting “stories.”
Analyst Dan Levy adjusted his price target for TSLA stock from $275 to $350, while maintaining an “Equal Weight” rating for the EV maker.
Tesla’s AI and autonomy narrative
Levy told investors that Tesla’s “accelerating autonomous and AI narrative,” amplified by CEO Elon Musk’s proposed compensation package, is energizing market sentiment. The analyst stated that expectations for a Q3 earnings-per-share beat are supported by improved vehicle delivery volumes and stronger-than-expected gross margins, as noted in a TipRanks report.
Tesla has been increasingly positioning itself as an AI-driven company, with Elon Musk frequently emphasizing the long-term potential of its Full Self-Driving (FSD) software and products like Optimus, both of which are heavily driven by AI. The company’s AI focus has also drawn the support of key companies like Nvidia, one of the world’s largest companies today.
Still cautious on TSLA
Despite bullish AI sentiments, Barclays maintained its caution on Tesla’s underlying business metrics. Levy described the firm’s stance as “leaning neutral to slightly negative” heading into the Q3 earnings call, citing concerns about near-term fundamentals of the electric vehicle maker.
Barclays is not the only firm that has expressed its concerns about TSLA stock recently. As per previous reports, BNP Paribas Exane also shared an “Underperform” rating on the company due to its two biggest products, the Robotaxi and Optimus, still generating “zero sales today, yet inform ~75% of our ~$1.02 trillion price target.” BNP Paribas, however, also estimated that Tesla will have an estimated 525,000 active Robotaxis by 2030, 17 million cumulative Optimus robot deliveries by 2040, and more than 11 million FSD subscriptions by 2030.
Investor's Corner
BNP Paribas Exane initiates Tesla coverage with “Underperform” rating
The firm’s projections for Tesla still include an estimated 525,000 active Robotaxis by 2030.
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) has received a bearish call from BNP Paribas Exane, which initiated coverage on the stock with an Underperform rating and a $307 price target, about 30% below current levels.
The firm’s analysts argued that Tesla’s valuation is driven heavily by artificial intelligence ventures such as the Robotaxi and Optimus, which are both still not producing any sales today.
Tesla’s valuation
In its note, BNP Paribas Exane stated that Tesla’s two AI-led programs, the Robotaxi and Optimus robots, generate “zero sales today, yet inform ~75% of our ~$1.02 trillion price target.” The research firm’s model projected a maximum bull-case valuation of $2.7 trillion through 2040, but after discounting milestone probabilities, its base-case valuation remained at $1.02 trillion.
The analysts described their outlook as optimistic toward Tesla’s AI ventures but cautioned that the stock’s “unfavorable risk/reward is clear,” adding that consensus earnings expectations for 2026 remain too high. Tesla’s market cap currently stands around $1.44 trillion with a trailing twelve-month revenue of $92.7 billion, which BNP Paribas argued does not justify Tesla’s P/E ratio of 258.59, as noted in an Investing.com report.
Tesla and its peers
BNP Paribas Exane’s report also included a comparative study of the “Magnificent Seven,” finding Tesla’s current market valuation as rather aggressive. “Our unique comparative analysis of the ‘Mag 7’ reveals the extreme nature of TSLA’s valuation, as the market implicitly says TSLA’s 2035 earnings (~55% of which will be driven by Robotaxi & Optimus, w/ zero sales now) have the same level of risk & value-appropriation as the ‘Mag 6’s’ 2026 earnings,” the firm noted.
The firm’s projections for Tesla include an estimated 525,000 active Robotaxis by 2030, 17 million cumulative Optimus robot deliveries by 2040 priced above $20,000 each, and more than 11 million Full Self-Driving subscriptions by 2030. Interestingly enough, these seem to be rather optimistic projections for one of the electric vehicle maker’s more bearish estimates today.
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) had coverage initiated on it by a new firm this week, and analysts said that the company’s comfort level with taking risks makes it a “must own” for investors.
Melius Research and analyst Rob Wertheimer initiated coverage of the stock this week with a $520 price target and a “Buy” rating. The price target is about 20 percent higher than the current trading price as shares closed at $435 on Wednesday, up 1.38 percent on the day.
Wertheimer said in the note to investors that introduced their opinion on Tesla shares that the company has a lot going for it, including a prowess in AI, domination in its automotive division, and an incredible expertise in manufacturing and supply chain.
He wrote:
“We see Tesla shares as a must-own. The disruptive force of AI will wreck multitrillion-dollar industries, starting with auto. Under Musk’s leadership, the company is comfortable taking risks. It has manufacturing scale and supply chain expertise that robotics startups possess more by proxy. It can rapidly improve and scale autonomy in driving, the first major manifestation of AI in the physical world.”
However, there were some drawbacks to the stock, according to Wertheimer, including its valuation, which he believes is “challenging” given its fundamentals. He said the $1 trillion market cap that the company represented was “guesswork,” and not necessarily something that could be outlined on paper.
This has been discussed by other analysts in the past, too. Yale School of Management Senior Associate Dean Jeff Sonnenfeld recently called Tesla the “biggest meme stock we’ve ever seen,” by stating:
“This is the biggest meme stock we’ve ever seen. Even at its peak, Amazon was nowhere near this level. The PE on this, well above 200, is just crazy. When you’ve got stocks like Nvidia, the price-earnings ratio is around 25 or 30, and Apple is maybe 35 or 36, Microsoft around the same. I mean, this is way out of line to be at a 220 PE. It’s crazy, and they’ve, I think, put a little too much emphasis on the magic wand of Musk.”
Additionally, J.P. Morgan’s Ryan Brinkman said:
“Tesla shares continue to strike us as having become completely divorced from the fundamentals.”
Some analysts covering Tesla have said they believe the stock is traded on narrative and not necessarily fundamentals.
Tesla rival Xpeng shows off new flying car concept for 2027 release
Tesla ramps production of its ‘new’ models at Giga Texas
Tesla set to be impacted greatly in one of its strongest markets
-
News1 day agoTesla launches ‘Mad Max’ Full Self-Driving Speed Profile, its fastest yet
-
News1 day agoTesla just teased something crazy with the next Full Self-Driving update
-
News22 hours agoTesla exec hints at FSD Mad Max mode’s killer feature
-
Elon Musk14 hours agoElon Musk was right all along about Tesla’s rivals and EV subsidies
-
News2 days agoTesla reportedly places large order for robot parts, hinting that Optimus V3 design is all but finalized
-
News16 hours agoTesla ownership without home charging: Here’s how it’s done
-
Elon Musk2 days agoStarship’s next chapter: SpaceX eyes tower catch after flawless Flight 11
-
News2 days agoTesla makes big move with its Insurance program