Investor's Corner
Tesla shares (TSLA) are far more bullish than short-term investors realize
Tesla stock (NASDAQ:TSLA) has been hit hard since April, with its share price down 9% year-to-date. Compared to the S&P 500, which is up roughly 2% this year, Tesla’s stocks are undoubtedly challenged.
While there is no doubt that Tesla’s share price has been beleaguered since April, TSLA’s weak performance could actually be somewhat bullish, especially when one looks into the historical trends of the electric car and energy company’s stock performance. Below is a chart depicting TSLA’s weekly trading action since 2012.
TSLA’s long-term weekly chart since 2012. [Credit: The Street]
Tesla’s stock price has been trending up and to the right since 2012. The Street noted that even without the sudden spike in early 2013 when the company went to market on its first all-electric sedan, Model S, shares of TSLA have exhibited an uptrend that is difficult to discount. Every time TSLA hits trendline support, shareholders have stepped forward to bid shares higher. This particular trend has been consistent since the summer of 2013.
The relative strength of TSLA shares is also noticeable in the chart above. Relative strength measures TSLA’s shares against the broad market, and as could be seen in the graph, the trend is also steadily pointing up to the right since 2013. This shows that Tesla has actually been outperforming the rest of the market over the past few years, despite being heavily shorted.
Tesla’s relative strength line appears to be testing its own uptrend once more. The last time this happened, it was November 2016, and as could be seen in TSLA’s long-term chart, the company’s shares could very well be on the verge of beating the rest of the S&P 500 again.
TSLA’s short-term weekly chart since 2017. [Credit: The Street]
A look into TSLA’s charts since 2017 could provide a clue as to how Tesla shares can get back on its feet again. A good number of Tesla investors have been focused on the intermediate-term trend, which is represented by the red line in TSLA’s short-term chart. At lower levels, however, TSLA shares have been looking constructive so far, forming an ascending triangle pattern with a breakout level at $310 per share.
If Tesla shares push beyond the $310 barrier, the company could keep its short-term momentum steady. Hitting the $310 mark will also be in line with the relative strength that TSLA has been exhibiting since 2013.
Amid reservations about the company’s capability to prevent a capital raise this year, recent reports have emerged that Hedge fund giant and billionaire George Soros, through his investment firm Soros Fund Management LLC, has taken a $35 million stake in Tesla’s convertible bonds during the first three months of 2018, as revealed by filings to the SEC.
TSLA’s recent challenges have sated the appetite of short-sellers, making the company the most-shorted business in the stock market today by the amount of equity at stake, with 38,258,654 shares held short as of 4/9/18. It is steadily becoming more and more expensive to keep a short position in the electric car maker’s stocks, however. In a research note published earlier this month, S3 Partners analyst Ihor Dusaniwsky called the bottom on short-selling activity, noting that the costs of keeping a short position have risen to 3.69% compared to 1% last December.
As of writing, Tesla shares are trading up 0.36% at $287.50 per share.
Disclosure: I have no ownership in shares of TSLA and have no plans to initiate any positions within 72 hours.
There are a lot of Tesla bulls out there who have astronomical expectations for the company, especially as its arm of reach has gone well past automotive and energy and entered artificial intelligence and robotics.
However, some of the most bullish Tesla investors believe the company could become worth $100 trillion, and CEO Elon Musk does not believe that number is completely out of the question, even if it sounds almost ridiculous.
To put that number into perspective, the top ten most valuable companies in the world — NVIDIA, Apple, Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, TSMC, Meta, Saudi Aramco, Broadcom, and Tesla — are worth roughly $26 trillion.
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Cathie Wood of ARK Invest believes the number is reasonable considering Tesla’s long-reaching industry ambitions:
“…in the world of AI, what do you have to have to win? You have to have proprietary data, and think about all the proprietary data he has, different kinds of proprietary data. Tesla, the language of the road; Neuralink, multiomics data; nobody else has that data. X, nobody else has that data either. I could see $100 trillion. I think it’s going to happen because of convergence. I think Tesla is the leading candidate [for $100 trillion] for the reason I just said.”
Musk said late last year that all of his companies seem to be “heading toward convergence,” and it’s started to come to fruition. Tesla invested in xAI, as revealed in its Q4 Earnings Shareholder Deck, and SpaceX recently acquired xAI, marking the first step in the potential for a massive umbrella of companies under Musk’s watch.
SpaceX officially acquires xAI, merging rockets with AI expertise
Now that it is happening, it seems Musk is even more enthusiastic about a massive valuation that would swell to nearly four-times the value of the top ten most valuable companies in the world currently, as he said on X, the idea of a $100 trillion valuation is “not impossible.”
It’s not impossible
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) February 6, 2026
Tesla is not just a car company. With its many projects, including the launch of Robotaxi, the progress of the Optimus robot, and its AI ambitions, it has the potential to continue gaining value at an accelerating rate.
Musk’s comments show his confidence in Tesla’s numerous projects, especially as some begin to mature and some head toward their initial stages.
Elon Musk
Tesla director pay lawsuit sees lawyer fees slashed by $100 million
The ruling leaves the case’s underlying settlement intact while significantly reducing what the plaintiffs’ attorneys will receive.
The Delaware Supreme Court has cut more than $100 million from a legal fee award tied to a shareholder lawsuit challenging compensation paid to Tesla directors between 2017 and 2020.
The ruling leaves the case’s underlying settlement intact while significantly reducing what the plaintiffs’ attorneys will receive.
Delaware Supreme Court trims legal fees
As noted in a Bloomberg Law report, the case targeted pay granted to Tesla directors, including CEO Elon Musk, Oracle founder Larry Ellison, Kimbal Musk, and Rupert Murdoch. The Delaware Chancery Court had awarded $176 million to the plaintiffs. Tesla’s board must also return stock options and forego years worth of pay.
As per Chief Justice Collins J. Seitz Jr. in an opinion for the Delaware Supreme Court’s full five-member panel, however, the decision of the Delaware Chancery Court to award $176 million to a pension fund’s law firm “erred by including in its financial benefit analysis the intrinsic value” of options being returned by Tesla’s board.
The justices then reduced the fee award from $176 million to $70.9 million. “As we measure it, $71 million reflects a reasonable fee for counsel’s efforts and does not result in a windfall,” Chief Justice Seitz wrote.
Other settlement terms still intact
The Supreme Court upheld the settlement itself, which requires Tesla’s board to return stock and options valued at up to $735 million and to forgo three years of additional compensation worth about $184 million.
Tesla argued during oral arguments that a fee award closer to $70 million would be appropriate. Interestingly enough, back in October, Justice Karen L. Valihura noted that the $176 award was $60 million more than the Delaware judiciary’s budget from the previous year. This was quite interesting as the case was “settled midstream.”
The lawsuit was brought by a pension fund on behalf of Tesla shareholders and focused exclusively on director pay during the 2017–2020 period. The case is separate from other high-profile compensation disputes involving Elon Musk.
Investor's Corner
Tesla (TSLA) Q4 and FY 2025 earnings call: The most important points
Executives, including CEO Elon Musk, discussed how the company is positioning itself for growth across vehicles, energy, AI, and robotics despite near-term pressures from tariffs, pricing, and macro conditions.
Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) Q4 and FY 2025 earnings call highlighted improving margins, record energy performance, expanding autonomy efforts, and a sharp acceleration in AI and robotics investments.
Executives, including CEO Elon Musk, discussed how the company is positioning itself for growth across vehicles, energy, AI, and robotics despite near-term pressures from tariffs, pricing, and macro conditions.
Key takeaways
Tesla reported sequential improvement in automotive gross margins excluding regulatory credits, rising from 15.4% to 17.9%, supported by favorable regional mix effects despite a 16% decline in deliveries. Total gross margin exceeded 20.1%, the highest level in more than two years, even with lower fixed-cost absorption and tariff impacts.
The energy business delivered standout results, with revenue reaching nearly $12.8 billion, up 26.6% year over year. Energy gross profit hit a new quarterly record, driven by strong global demand and high deployments of MegaPack and Powerwall across all regions, as noted in a report from The Motley Fool.
Tesla also stated that paid Full Self-Driving customers have climbed to nearly 1.1 million worldwide, with about 70% having purchased FSD outright. The company has now fully transitioned FSD to a subscription-based sales model, which should create a short-term margin headwind for automotive results.
Free cash flow totaled $1.4 billion for the quarter. Operating expenses rose by $500 million sequentially as well.
Production shifts, robotics, and AI investment
Musk further confirmed that Model S and Model X production is expected to wind down next quarter, and plans are underway to convert Fremont’s S/X line into an Optimus robot factory with a capacity of one million units.
Tesla’s Robotaxi fleet has surpassed 500 vehicles, operating across the Bay Area and Austin, with Musk noting a rapid monthly expansion pace. He also reiterated that CyberCab production is expected to begin in April, following a slow initial S-curve ramp before scaling beyond other vehicle programs.
Looking ahead, Tesla expects its capital expenditures to exceed $20 billion next year, thanks to the company’s operations across its six factories, the expansion of its fleet expansion, and the ramp of its AI compute. Additional investments in AI chips, compute infrastructure, and future in-house semiconductor manufacturing were discussed but are not included in the company’s current CapEx guidance.
More importantly, Tesla ended the year with a larger backlog than in recent years. This is supported by record deliveries in smaller international markets and stronger demand across APAC and EMEA. Energy backlog remains strong globally as well, though Tesla cautioned that margin pressure could emerge from competition, policy uncertainty, and tariffs.
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