Investor's Corner
Tesla gets ‘Strong Buy’ rating amid Panasonic’s pledge to ramp Gigafactory 1 battery production
Tesla stock (NASDAQ:TSLA) recently received a vote of confidence from one of Wall Street’s veteran investment research firms. In a note on Tuesday, Zacks Investment Research upgraded Tesla from a “Hold” rating to a “Strong Buy” rating, citing the electric car maker’s strong performance in the third quarter. The research firm also gave TSLA a price target of $381, suggesting an upside of around 13% from the stock’s current price.
In its note to its clients, Zacks Investment Research pointed out that Tesla’s third-quarter figures show that the company is making progress despite meeting several challenges over the past quarters. The research firm further noted that Tesla’s upcoming focus on its energy business bodes well for the company’s potential in the future.
“In third-quarter 2018, Tesla’s earnings per share and revenues surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimates. Also, both earnings and revenues improved year over year. In third-quarter 2018, Tesla produced 80,142 vehicles. This included 53,239 Model 3s, and 26,903 Model S and Model X vehicles. Deliveries to customers amounted to 55,840 Model 3 along with 27,660 Model S and X.
“These numbers are close to estimates and indicate that the company is making good progress despite hurdles. The company is focusing to grow its energy storage deployment and aims to deploy at least three times of what is deployed in 2017. Over the past six months, shares of Tesla outperformed the industry it belongs to. Moreover, over the past one month, the Zacks Consensus Estimates for both the current quarter and current year earnings are moving upwards.”
An upgrade from Zacks Investment Research bodes well for Tesla stock. The research firm, after all, utilizes a quantitative stock-rating system, which relies entirely on mathematics. This means that the company’s findings and conclusions are unaffected by headwinds in Wall Street or any similar external factor. This approach has made Zacks the research firm of choice for over 200 brokerages, as well as numerous Wall Street analysts.
Tesla’s upgraded rating from Zacks comes amidst reports that Panasonic Corp has pledged to ramp the production of its battery cells at Tesla’s Gigafactory 1 in Nevada. In an announcement on Wednesday, Panasonic reported a decline in its quarterly profit due to the rising costs of its operations in the Gigafactory. Despite this, the Japanese company stated that it was in talks to augment its $1.6 billion investment and take capacity at Gigafactory 1 over the 35 GWh it is expected to reach by the end of March 2019.
In a statement to Reuters, Panasonic Chief Executive Kazuhiro Tsuga stated that as Tesla ramps its vehicle production, the battery maker will ramp battery production as well. The Panasonic executive further noted that while Elon Musk attracts a substantial amount of noise due to his behavior online, Tesla’s fundamentals seem to be stable.
“Investment for capacity beyond 35 GWh means that Tesla would also need to make substantial investment in vehicle production, so we will closely align with each other. Though Elon’s comments are unpredictable, we will continue to monitor Tesla’s operations to ensure no chaos there and will work in step with the company. But I don’t see the U.S. electric car maker’s business operations have been put into chaos,” Tsuga said.
Since ending the third quarter on a high note, Tesla appears to have hit overdrive with its Model 3 production ramp. In October alone, for example, Tesla registered more than 61,000 Model 3 VINs — equal to the total VINs the company filed during the first 11 months of the electric car’s production. Tesla has also introduced a new Mid Range Model 3 variant this month, which puts the electric sedan closer to its target $35,000 base price.
As of writing, Tesla stock is trading +2.02% at $336.53 per share.
Disclosure: I have no ownership in shares of TSLA and have no plans to initiate any positions within 72 hours.
Tesla has scheduled its Earnings Call for Q4 and Full Year 2025 for next Wednesday, January 28, at 5:30 p.m. EST, and investors are already preparing to get some answers from executives regarding a wide variety of topics.
The company accepts several questions from retail investors through the platform Say, which then allows shareholders to vote on the best questions.
Tesla does not answer anything regarding future product releases, but they are willing to shed light on current timelines, progress of certain projects, and other plans.
There are five questions that range over a variety of topics, including SpaceX, Full Self-Driving, Robotaxi, and Optimus, which are currently in the lead to be asked and potentially answered by Elon Musk and other Tesla executives:
- You once said: Loyalty deserves loyalty. Will long-term Tesla shareholders still be prioritized if SpaceX does an IPO?
- Our Take – With a lot of speculation regarding an incoming SpaceX IPO, Tesla investors, especially long-term ones, should be able to benefit from an early opportunity to purchase shares. This has been discussed endlessly over the past year, and we must be getting close to it.
- When is FSD going to be 100% unsupervised?
- Our Take – Musk said today that this is essentially a solved problem, and it could be available in the U.S. by the end of this year.
- What is the current bottleneck to increase Robotaxi deployment & personal use unsupervised FSD? The safety/performance of the most recent models or people to monitor robots, robotaxis, in-car, or remotely? Or something else?
- Our Take – The bottleneck seems to be based on data, which Musk said Tesla needs 10 billion miles of data to achieve unsupervised FSD. Once that happens, regulatory issues will be what hold things up from moving forward.
- Regarding Optimus, could you share the current number of units deployed in Tesla factories and actively performing production tasks? What specific roles or operations are they handling, and how has their integration impacted factory efficiency or output?
- Our Take – Optimus is going to have a larger role in factories moving forward, and later this year, they will have larger responsibilities.
- Can you please tie purchased FSD to our owner accounts vs. locked to the car? This will help us enjoy it in any Tesla we drive/buy and reward us for hanging in so long, some of us since 2017.
- Our Take – This is a good one and should get us some additional information on the FSD transfer plans and Subscription-only model that Tesla will adopt soon.
Tesla will have its Earnings Call on Wednesday, January 28.
Elon Musk
Tesla locks in Elon Musk’s top problem solver as it enters its most ambitious era
The generous equity award was disclosed by the electric vehicle maker in a recent regulatory filing.
Tesla has granted Senior Vice President of Automotive Tom Zhu more than 520,000 stock options, tying a significant portion of his compensation to the company’s long-term performance.
The generous equity award was disclosed by the electric vehicle maker in a recent regulatory filing.
Tesla secures top talent
According to a Form 4 filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, Tom Zhu received 520,021 stock options with an exercise price of $435.80 per share. Since the award will not fully vest until March 5, 2031, Zhu must remain at Tesla for more than five years to realize the award’s full benefit.
Considering that Tesla shares are currently trading at around the $445 to $450 per share level, Zhu will really only see gains in his equity award if Tesla’s stock price sees a notable rise over the years, as noted in a Sina Finance report.
Still, even at today’s prices, Zhu’s stock award is already worth over $230 million. If Tesla reaches the market cap targets set forth in Elon Musk’s 2025 CEO Performance Award, Zhu would become a billionaire from this equity award alone.
Tesla’s problem solver
Zhu joined Tesla in April 2014 and initially led the company’s Supercharger rollout in China. Later that year, he assumed the leadership of Tesla’s China business, where he played a central role in Tesla’s localization efforts, including expanding retail and service networks, and later, overseeing the development of Gigafactory Shanghai.
Zhu’s efforts helped transform China into one of Tesla’s most important markets and production hubs. In 2023, Tesla promoted Zhu to Senior Vice President of Automotive, placing him among the company’s core global executives and expanding his influence beyond China. He has since garnered a reputation as the company’s problem solver, being tapped by Elon Musk to help ramp Giga Texas’s vehicle production.
With this in mind, Tesla’s recent filing seems to suggest that the company is locking in its top talent as it enters its newest, most ambitious era to date. As could be seen in the targets of Elon Musk’s 2025 pay package, Tesla is now aiming to be the world’s largest company by market cap, and it is aiming to achieve production levels that are unheard of. Zhu’s talents would definitely be of use in this stage of the company’s growth.
Tesla analyst Andrew Percoco of Morgan Stanley teased the company’s dominance in its self-driving initiative, stating that its lead over competitors is “not even close.”
Percoco recently overtook coverage of Tesla stock from Adam Jonas, who had covered the company at Morgan Stanley for years. Percoco is handling Tesla now that Jonas is covering embodied AI stocks and no longer automotive.
His first move after grabbing coverage was to adjust the price target from $410 to $425, as well as the rating from ‘Overweight’ to ‘Equal Weight.’
Percoco’s new note regarding Tesla highlights the company’s extensive lead in self-driving and autonomy projects, something that it has plenty of competition in, but has established its prowess over the past few years.
He writes:
“It’s not even close. Tesla continues to lead in autonomous driving, even as Nvidia rolls out new technology aimed at helping other automakers build driverless systems.”
Percoco’s main point regarding Tesla’s advantage is the company’s ability to collect large amounts of training data through its massive fleet, as millions of cars are driving throughout the world and gathering millions of miles of vehicle behavior on the road.
This is the main point that Percoco makes regarding Tesla’s lead in the entire autonomy sector: data is King, and Tesla has the most of it.
One big story that has hit the news over the past week is that of NVIDIA and its own self-driving suite, called Alpamayo. NVIDIA launched this open-source AI program last week, but it differs from Tesla’s in a significant fashion, especially from a hardware perspective, as it plans to use a combination of LiDAR, Radar, and Vision (Cameras) to operate.
Percoco said that NVIDIA’s announcement does not impact Morgan Stanley’s long-term opinions on Tesla and its strength or prowess in self-driving.
NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang commends Tesla’s Elon Musk for early belief
And, for what it’s worth, NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang even said some remarkable things about Tesla following the launch of Alpamayo:
“I think the Tesla stack is the most advanced autonomous vehicle stack in the world. I’m fairly certain they were already using end-to-end AI. Whether their AI did reasoning or not is somewhat secondary to that first part.”
Percoco reiterated both the $425 price target and the ‘Equal Weight’ rating on Tesla shares.
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