Investor's Corner
Tesla (TSLA) shares snatched up by ARK after Battery Day: “It’s going to be hard to catch up”
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) Battery Day did not have the fancy frills or dramatic music that other company events have used in the past, but it did have a clear-cut message: cell costs are decreasing, and Tesla’s lead is expanding. The event gave ARK Invest enough of a reason to load up on more shares of the electric automaker’s stock, and the company’s analysts are convinced that other manufacturers will have an extreme issue with Tesla’s dominance in the sector for years to come.
After Battery Day concluded and the next trading day began, ARK purchased over 166,000 shares of Tesla stock, according to an email that details its most recent trades.
Surprisingly, TSLA stock dipped considerably after Battery Day based on the fact that the company’s released details about an improved cell manufacturing process would be a long-term project and would likely take anywhere from 1 to 3 years to take effect. Interestingly, the company’s release of a 4680 battery cell, which improves power, range, and cost, was not enough to convince Wall Street to boost the stock’s price.
Wow, @ARKInvest just added a lot more $TSLA. Their track record in these “buy the dip” opportunities is impeccable. pic.twitter.com/xYIDVuMZYJ
— Matt Smith (@MatchasmMatt) September 23, 2020
However, ARK, along with other financial firms, saw the dip as an opportunity to purchase even more holdings than before. Tesla’s new tech gives ARK the indication that no car companies will have the chance to catch up, simply because they’re too far behind in battery and EV tech development.
Tasha Keeney of ARK appeared on Bloomberg to discuss Tesla’s developments.
“Tesla is changing the way that the electric vehicle industry works,” Keeney said. “For any traditional automaker to catch up to Tesla now, it seems almost impossible. This $25,000 car that will probably have even greater range than previous models, maybe 400 miles, let’s say. I mean, what are you going to do if you’re a traditional OEM, and you’re still struggling to get your electric vehicle program together?”
“It’s just going to be so hard to catch up to them at this point,” she added.
The proof is in the pudding, and ARK increased their holdings substantially following the Battery Day announcements. But the dip in price came to Keeney’s surprise.
“People are talking about the fact that the event lacked ‘sizzle.’ You know, that is something that I’m surprised to hear.”
Some don’t understand the long-term implications of a more efficient battery cell, along with the fact that Tesla is making the cell itself. Not only will the cell be more powerful, but it will also significantly reduce costs, bringing the price of the company’s vehicles down.
Once the manufacturing of the new cells is increased, the costs associated with developing a battery will decrease, and electric vehicles will be widely available because they will be more affordable to more people.
Battery Day didn’t have all the bells and whistles, but it did have a message to OEMs and ICE manufacturers: Your time is coming to an end.
Disclaimer: Joey Klender is a TSLA shareholder.
Tesla received a price target boost from Morgan Stanley, according to a new note on Monday morning, but there is some considerable caution also being communicated over the next year or so.
Morgan Stanley analyst Andrew Percoco took over Tesla coverage for the firm from longtime bull Adam Jonas, who appears to be focusing on embodied AI stocks and no longer automotive.
Percoco took over and immediately adjusted the price target for Tesla from $410 to $425, and changed its rating on shares from ‘Overweight’ to ‘Equal Weight.’
Percoco said he believes Tesla is the leading company in terms of electric vehicles, manufacturing, renewable energy, and real-world AI, so it deserves a premium valuation. However, he admits the high expectations for the company could provide for a “choppy trading environment” for the next year.
He wrote:
“However, high expectations on the latter have brought the stock closer to fair valuation. While it is well understood that Tesla is more than an auto manufacturer, we expect a choppy trading environment for the TSLA shares over the next 12 months, as we see downside to estimates, while the catalysts for its non-auto businesses appear priced at current levels.”
Percoco also added that if market cap hurdles are achieved, Morgan Stanley would reduce its price target by 7 percent.
Perhaps the biggest change with Percoco taking over the analysis for Jonas is how he will determine the value of each individual project. For example, he believes Optimus is worth about $60 per share of equity value.
He went on to describe the potential value of Full Self-Driving, highlighting its importance to the Tesla valuation:
“Full Self Driving (FSD) is the crown jewel of Tesla’s auto business; we believe that its leading-edge personal autonomous driving offering is a real game changer, and will remain a significant competitive advantage over its EV and non-EV peers. As Tesla continues to improve its platform with increased levels of autonomy (i.e., hands-off, eyes-off), it will revolutionize the personal driving experience. It remains to be seen if others will be able to keep pace.”
Additionally, Percoco outlined both bear and bull cases for the stock. He believes $860 per share, “which could be in play in the next 12 months if Tesla manages through the EV-downturn,” while also scaling Robotaxi, executing on unsupervised FSD, and scaling Optimus, is in play for the bull case.
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Meanwhile, the bear case is placed at $145 per share, and “assumes greater competition and margin pressure across all business lines, embedding zero value for humanoids, slowing the growth curve for Tesla’s robotaxi fleet to reflect regulatory challenges in scaling a vision-only perception stack, and lowering market share and margin profile for the autos and energy businesses.”
Currently, Tesla shares are trading at around $441.
Tesla bear Michael Burry got blunt with his beliefs over the company’s valuation, which he called “ridiculously overvalued” in a newsletter to subscribers this past weekend.
“Tesla’s market capitalization is ridiculously overvalued today and has been for a good long time,” Burry, who was the inspiration for the movie The Big Short, and was portrayed by Christian Bale.
Burry went on to say, “As an aside, the Elon cult was all-in on electric cars until competition showed up, then all-in on autonomous driving until competition showed up, and now is all-in on robots — until competition shows up.”
Tesla bear Michael Burry ditches bet against $TSLA, says ‘media inflated’ the situation
For a long time, Burry has been skeptical of Tesla, its stock, and its CEO, Elon Musk, even placing a $530 million bet against shares several years ago. Eventually, Burry’s short position extended to other supporters of the company, including ARK Invest.
Tesla has long drawn skepticism from investors and more traditional analysts, who believe its valuation is overblown. However, the company is not traded as a traditional stock, something that other Wall Street firms have recognized.
While many believe the company has some serious pull as an automaker, an identity that helped it reach the valuation it has, Tesla has more than transformed into a robotics, AI, and self-driving play, pulling itself into the realm of some of the most recognizable stocks in tech.
Burry’s Scion Asset Management has put its money where its mouth is against Tesla stock on several occasions, but the firm has not yielded positive results, as shares have increased in value since 2020 by over 115 percent. The firm closed in May.
In 2020, it launched its short position, but by October 2021, it had ditched that position.
Tesla has had a tumultuous year on Wall Street, dipping significantly to around the $220 mark at one point. However, it rebounded significantly in September, climbing back up to the $400 region, as it currently trades at around $430.
It closed at $430.14 on Monday.
Investor's Corner
Mizuho keeps Tesla (TSLA) “Outperform” rating but lowers price target
As per the Mizuho analyst, upcoming changes to EV incentives in the U.S. and China could affect Tesla’s unit growth more than previously expected.
Mizuho analyst Vijay Rakesh lowered Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) price target to $475 from $485, citing potential 2026 EV subsidy cuts in the U.S. and China that could pressure deliveries. The firm maintained its Outperform rating for the electric vehicle maker, however.
As per the Mizuho analyst, upcoming changes to EV incentives in the U.S. and China could affect Tesla’s unit growth more than previously expected. The U.S. accounted for roughly 37% of Tesla’s third-quarter 2025 sales, while China represented about 34%, making both markets highly sensitive to policy shifts. Potential 50% cuts to Chinese subsidies and reduced U.S. incentives affected the firm’s outlook.
With those pressures factored in, the firm now expects Tesla to deliver 1.75 million vehicles in 2026 and 2 million in 2027, slightly below consensus estimates of 1.82 million and 2.15 million, respectively. The analyst was cautiously optimistic, as near-term pressure from subsidies is there, but the company’s long-term tech roadmap remains very compelling.
Despite the revised target, Mizuho remained optimistic on Tesla’s long-term technology roadmap. The firm highlighted three major growth drivers into 2027: the broader adoption of Full Self-Driving V14, the expansion of Tesla’s Robotaxi service, and the commercialization of Optimus, the company’s humanoid robot.
“We are lowering TSLA Ests/PT to $475 with Potential BEV headwinds in 2026E. We believe into 2026E, US (~37% of TSLA 3Q25 sales) EV subsidy cuts and China (34% of TSLA 3Q25 sales) potential 50% EV subsidy cuts could be a headwind to EV deliveries.
“We are now estimating TSLA deliveries for 2026/27E at 1.75M/2.00M (slightly below cons. 1.82M/2.15M). We see some LT drivers with FSD v14 adoption for autonomous, robotaxi launches, and humanoid robots into 2027 driving strength,” the analyst noted.
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