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Tesla (TSLA) shares snatched up by ARK after Battery Day: “It’s going to be hard to catch up”

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Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) Battery Day did not have the fancy frills or dramatic music that other company events have used in the past, but it did have a clear-cut message: cell costs are decreasing, and Tesla’s lead is expanding. The event gave ARK Invest enough of a reason to load up on more shares of the electric automaker’s stock, and the company’s analysts are convinced that other manufacturers will have an extreme issue with Tesla’s dominance in the sector for years to come.

After Battery Day concluded and the next trading day began, ARK purchased over 166,000 shares of Tesla stock, according to an email that details its most recent trades.

Surprisingly, TSLA stock dipped considerably after Battery Day based on the fact that the company’s released details about an improved cell manufacturing process would be a long-term project and would likely take anywhere from 1 to 3 years to take effect. Interestingly, the company’s release of a 4680 battery cell, which improves power, range, and cost, was not enough to convince Wall Street to boost the stock’s price.

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However, ARK, along with other financial firms, saw the dip as an opportunity to purchase even more holdings than before. Tesla’s new tech gives ARK the indication that no car companies will have the chance to catch up, simply because they’re too far behind in battery and EV tech development.

Tasha Keeney of ARK appeared on Bloomberg to discuss Tesla’s developments.

“Tesla is changing the way that the electric vehicle industry works,” Keeney said. “For any traditional automaker to catch up to Tesla now, it seems almost impossible. This $25,000 car that will probably have even greater range than previous models, maybe 400 miles, let’s say. I mean, what are you going to do if you’re a traditional OEM, and you’re still struggling to get your electric vehicle program together?”

“It’s just going to be so hard to catch up to them at this point,” she added.

The proof is in the pudding, and ARK increased their holdings substantially following the Battery Day announcements. But the dip in price came to Keeney’s surprise.

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“People are talking about the fact that the event lacked ‘sizzle.’ You know, that is something that I’m surprised to hear.”

 

Some don’t understand the long-term implications of a more efficient battery cell, along with the fact that Tesla is making the cell itself. Not only will the cell be more powerful, but it will also significantly reduce costs, bringing the price of the company’s vehicles down.

Once the manufacturing of the new cells is increased, the costs associated with developing a battery will decrease, and electric vehicles will be widely available because they will be more affordable to more people.

Battery Day didn’t have all the bells and whistles, but it did have a message to OEMs and ICE manufacturers: Your time is coming to an end.

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Disclaimer: Joey Klender is a TSLA shareholder.

Joey has been a journalist covering electric mobility at TESLARATI since August 2019. In his spare time, Joey is playing golf, watching MMA, or cheering on any of his favorite sports teams, including the Baltimore Ravens and Orioles, Miami Heat, Washington Capitals, and Penn State Nittany Lions. You can get in touch with joey at joey@teslarati.com. He is also on X @KlenderJoey. If you're looking for great Tesla accessories, check out shop.teslarati.com

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Investor's Corner

Tesla bull writes cautious note on Robotaxi launch: ‘Keep expectations well contained’

Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas is more cautious about Tesla’s upcoming Robotaxi launch.

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla analyst Adam Jonas of Morgan Stanley is telling investors to be wary of the Robotaxi details CEO Elon Musk revealed this week, after a report seemed to land on the prospective launch date of the platform in June.

Earlier this week, a report from Bloomberg indicated Tesla had internally landed on a tentative date of June 12 for its Robotaxi launch in Austin. Shortly after, Musk detailed the successful testing Tesla has already performed without anyone in the driver’s seat.

Tesla lands on date for Robotaxi launch in Austin: report

He also indicated Teslas would self-deliver to customers in June.

Analysts are now sending out investor notes on the announcement Musk made, along with the Bloomberg report. Jonas’s note is more cautious than others.

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Jonas believes Tesla needs to shed more details before investors and fans of the company get too excited. He believes there is more information that could be released, but until then, he is suggesting investors “keep expectations well contained.”

He wrote:

“As is typical for highly anticipated Tesla events, we would keep expectations well contained for the (reported) June 12th Cybercab launch event in Austin. However, we would look for a continued stream of updates for the performance and growth of the network thereafter (numbers of cars, miles, trips, etc.) in the days and weeks that follow.”

The tone of Jonas’s note contradicts that of Wedbush’s Dan Ives, who believes the “golden age of autonomous” lies in Tesla’s hands. He seems to believe Tesla will come through on its June 12 launch.

Tesla set for ‘golden age of autonomous’ as Robotaxi nears, ‘dark chapter’ ends: Wedbush

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Morgan Stanley’s note is slightly more

Jonas is obviously still bullish, but is much more tentative to move forward with an attitude that communicates skepticism about what Tesla has revealed.

Jonas and Morgan Stanley have a $410 price target on Tesla shares with a ‘Buy’ rating. Tesla stock is trading at around $358 at 12:15 p.m. on the East Coast.

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Tesla analyst’s firm has sold its entire TSLA position: Here’s why

Tesla analyst Gary Black revealed his firm, The Future Fund, has sold their entire $TSLA holding.

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tesla showroom
(Credit: Tesla)

Tesla analyst Gary Black of The Future Fund revealed today that his firm has sold its entire $TSLA holding, marking the first time since 2021 that it has not had a position in the company’s stock.

Black has been a skeptic of the company and relatively pessimistic regarding some things many investors would consider catalysts, outlining his concerns and reasoning for selling the shares.

Much of Black’s reasoning concerns Tesla’s price-to-earnings ratio, delivery results and potential delivery figures for the future, and other near-term projects that he does not believe will yield as much value as others perceive.

We will break down each concern of Black’s below:

‘Disconnected from Underlying Fundamentals’

Black says that The Future Fund sold its holdings at $358 per share. The firm’s current price target is at $310, and he says it will remain there based on “our forecast of 2030 Tesla volumes of 5.4m and 2030 Adj EPS of $12.

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Main Concern is P/E Ratio

The main concern Black and The Future Fund have is that TSLA “now sells at a 2025 P/E of 188x as earnings estimates continue to fall (-5% in the past week, -40% YTD) driven by weak YTD deliveries, including weak April results.”

Black says he believes quarterly deliveries will decline by 12 percent, and full-year by 10 percent.

This compares to Wall Street’s estimates of a 7 percent decrease for Q2 and a 5 percent year-over-year.

Robotaxi Skepticism

“We believe the risk/reward associated with the Austin robotaxi test remain asymmetrical to the downside,” Black writes in his post on X.

Tesla Robotaxi deemed a total failure by media — even though it hasn’t been released

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Many believe the Robotaxi platform could be Tesla’s biggest catalyst moving forward, especially as other automakers do not seem to have even close to as robust a solution to self-driving as Tesla.

Tesla’s Affordable Models

Black says there are concerns the affordable model will be “a stripped-down Model Y priced lower and funded by lower costs rather than a new form factory that expands TAM.”

This is confusing, especially considering the cheaper price tag would expand the total addressable market (TAM) to begin with. The Model Y has been the best-selling vehicle in the world for the past two years.

Tesla still on track to release more affordable models in 1H25

Introducing an even lower-cost model with some missing features would still likely be a significantly more attractive option than a base model ICE vehicle, especially because the value Full Self-Driving provides would make the car more beneficial.

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“This increases odds that FY’25 estimates decline further, risking a repeat of 2023-2024, when TSLA reduced EV prices supported by lower costs, and TSLA saw little or no incremental volume growth,” he finishes with.

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Tesla set for ‘golden age of autonomous’ as Robotaxi nears, ‘dark chapter’ ends: Wedbush

Tesla is set to win big from the launch of the Robotaxi platform, Wedbush’s Dan Ives said.

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Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) is set to kick off its own “golden age of autonomous growth” as its Robotaxi platform nears launch and a “dark chapter” for the company has evidently come to a close, according to Wedbush analyst Dan Ives.

Ives has jostled his price target on Tesla shares a few times already this year, usually switching things up as the market sways and the company’s near-term outlook changes. His price target on Tesla has gone from $550 to $315 to $350 back to $500 this year, with the newest adjustment coming from a note released early on Friday.

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As CEO Elon Musk has essentially started to dwindle down his commitment to the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) altogether, Ives believes that Tesla’s “dark chapter” has come to a close:

“First lets address the elephant in the room…2025 started off as a dark chapter for Musk and Tesla as Elon’s role in the Trump Administration and DOGE created a life of its own which created brand damage and a black cloud over the story….but importantly those days are in the rear-view mirror as we are now seeing a recommitted Musk leading Tesla as CEO into this autonomous and robotics future ahead with his days in the White House now essentially over.”

Ives believes Tesla’s launch of Robotaxi should be the company’s way to unlock at least $1 trillion in value alone, especially as the Trump White House will fast-track the key initiatives the automaker needs to get things moving in the right direction:

“The $1 trillion of AI valuation will start to get unlocked in the Tesla story and we believe the march to a $2 trillion valuation for TSLA over the next 12 to 18 months has now begun in our view with FSD and autonomous penetration of Tesla’s installed base and the acceleration of Cybercab in the US representing the golden goose.”

There are some concerns moving forward, but none of which relate to the AI/autonomous play that Ives primarily focuses on within the Friday note. Instead, they are related to demand in both Europe and Asia, as Ives said, “there is still wood to chop to turn around Model Y growth” in both of those markets.

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Nevertheless, the big focus for Ives is evidently the launch of Robotaxi and the potential of the entire autonomous division that Tesla plans to offer as a ride-sharing service in the coming months. Ives also believes a 50 percent or more penetration of Full Self-Driving could totally transform the financial model and margins of Tesla moving ahead.

Aware of the setbacks Tesla could encounter, Ives still believes that Tesla will establish itself as “the true autonomous winner over” and that investors will recognize the AI vision the company has been so bullish on.

Ives pushed his price target to $500. Tesla shares are down just under 1% at the time of publication. They are trading at $337.88 at 11:45 on the East Coast.

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