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Tesla (TSLA) will soon be as big as BMW with “twice better margins,” analyst says

The Tesla Model Y. (Credit: MotorTrend)

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Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) has had its shares slide in value over the past couple of days, but Pierre Ferragu of New Street Research insists it is nothing to worry about. The analyst indicates the future outlook is positive, and Tesla is well on its way to being one of the largest car companies in the world in terms of output and sales.

Ferragu appeared on CNBC’s Squawk Alley on Friday, September 4, to talk about tech stocks and their slight decline during the trading week. Ferragu talked about Apple stock initially and then gave his thoughts about Tesla shortly thereafter.

“If you look at Tesla today, things are very tangible,” Ferragu said. “I believe that with a very high level of conviction. [Tesla] has very unique EV cars in terms of performance. They are building an iconic brand, and they are like an innovation machine on this electric vehicle technology.”

Ferragu also believes Tesla is head and shoulders above competitors in assisted driving and semi-autonomous tech.

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“In addition to that, they have, by far, the best driver-assistance technology in the market. So these are the things I love,” Ferragu added.

Ferragu holds a $1,500 price target and a Neutral rating for TSLA stock, and he believes the sky is the limit for the company’s growth in the coming years.

The level of confidence that Ferragu has in Tesla because of its iconic brand building, innovative tech developments, and semi-autonomous developments, has him believing the company can be the size of BMW in just five years.

BMW Group sold 2.5 million vehicles across its BMW, Mini, and Rolls-Royce brands in 2019, a 1.2% increase from 2018. Tesla, on the other hand, delivered 367,500 cars last year. This was a drastic increase compared to 2018, where the company delivered 245,240 vehicles. With more production facilities on the way, growth is certainly expected in the coming years.

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“If I play them out over the next five years, I think Tesla is going to be, in five years from now, the size of BMW, with twice better margins. I think, by then, it could be worth $2,500, maybe $3,000 [per share],” Ferragu said.

The company’s valuation goes past its automotive sector and into the energy storage side of the company. Many analysts do not acknowledge Tesla Energy, which is a big mistake in determining the valuation of the company.

“On top of that, you have the Energy Storage opportunities, the Solar opportunities, and the Insurance opportunity, that I think is potentially very tangible. And then you have the opportunity for Tesla to really achieve something with its Full Self-Driving. But all the things are going to play out in the stock and be materialized and visible within multiple years,” he said.

Today, Ferragu is advising his clients to buy TSLA stock on the automotive side of things, but that isn’t to say that the company shows extreme upside potential within other facets of its business plan within the coming years.

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Disclaimer: Joey Klender is a TSLA shareholder.

Update: Added BMW and Tesla sales figures in 8th paragraph at 1:18 PST.

Joey has been a journalist covering electric mobility at TESLARATI since August 2019. In his spare time, Joey is playing golf, watching MMA, or cheering on any of his favorite sports teams, including the Baltimore Ravens and Orioles, Miami Heat, Washington Capitals, and Penn State Nittany Lions. You can get in touch with joey at joey@teslarati.com. He is also on X @KlenderJoey. If you're looking for great Tesla accessories, check out shop.teslarati.com

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Elon Musk

SpaceX Starship Flight 13 aborted at Zero and Musk just told us what broke

Four Raptor engines failed to ignite at T-zero, forcing SpaceX to scrub Starship Flight 13 Thursday.

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SpaceX scrubbed the Starship Flight 13 launch attempt Thursday evening at the last possible moment, after four of the Super Heavy booster’s 33 Raptor 3 engines failed to ignite during the startup sequence. The 90-minute window had opened at 6:45 p.m. EDT from Starbase in Boca Chica, Texas, and the countdown had proceeded without issue all day, with more than 11.5 million pounds of liquid methane and liquid oxygen being fully loaded into the rocket before the automated abort triggered. SpaceX’s launch directors posted on X, “Standing down from today’s flight test attempt,” and shut down the livestream shortly after.

Musk confirmed the root cause within hours. “Some of the engines didn’t start, triggering an automatic launch abort,” he wrote on X. “To be confident of a good flight, 2 Raptors will be removed and replaced. Most probable launch timing is early next week.” SpaceX engineers began draining propellant tanks immediately and Booster 20 was rolled back to its hangar for inspection.

SpaceX comes with a slew of changes for Starship Flight 13

 

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The timing adds a layer of significance that did not exist during any of the previous 12 Starship flights. This is the first time SpaceX has attempted to launch Starship since the company made its stock market debut in June, listing under ticker SPCX at $135 per share. Public investors are now watching every Starship outcome in real time, and a last-second abort carries more visibility than it would have six months ago.

Flight 13 was designed to be one of the most consequential tests in the program’s history. It was set to carry 20 Starlink V3 satellites, the first operational payload Starship has ever attempted to deploy. Six of those satellites carried external cameras to photograph Starship’s heat shield from the outside during flight, which would act as a self-inspection approach SpaceX has never attempted before. The mission also needed to complete a Raptor engine relight in space, a step SpaceX skipped on Flight 12 in May after losing an engine during ascent. That Flight 12 booster also flipped 90 degrees off course during its boostback burn when five engines failed to reignite.

SpaceX has not announced an official next launch date. Musk’s “early next week” window points to July 21 or 22 at the earliest, pending the engine swap and a return to the pad.

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Investor's Corner

Lucid CEO dispels any rumors of bankruptcy: ‘So far from the facts’

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Credit: Lucid

Lucid CEO Silvio Napoli responded to rumors of an imminent bankruptcy that was reportedly being mulled after a report stated the automaker was working with the firm AlixPartners to iron out its next steps.

The company felt a massive loss on Wall Street yesterday, as the report essentially pushed the stock down as much as 55 percent on Tuesday.

The report, published initially by Eletric-Vehicles.com, claimed Lucid was essentially in dire straits and was told by AlixPartners, a commonly used restructuring advisor, to either take shares private or file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection.

Lucid denies rumors of bankruptcy after over 40% stock drop

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Lucid’s head of Communications, Nick Twork, immediately challenged the report and stated the company “has sufficient liquidity to carry its operations well into next year.”

Now, the company’s CEO is chiming in as well, stating that the report is “so far from the facts that they require a direct response.”

Napoli said:

“Lucid is not considering bankruptcy or a transaction to take the company private. Those reports are false. The Board did not explore either scenario. Period.

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As disclosed in our most recent quarterly filing, Lucid has sufficient liquidity to fund its operations well into next year.

We work with outside advisors to improve operational performance and execution. They are not advising Lucid on a take-private transaction or bankruptcy, and any suggestion that they have recommended either course of action to management or the Board is false.

My priority is clear: turn this company around. That is where the leadership team and I are focused.

I look forward to providing a full update during our quarterly earnings call on August 4th.”

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It seems pretty clear that Lucid is confident things will be okay, and, to be honest, they should not have much to worry about, especially considering the company has been backed by the Saudi Public Investment Fund (PIF) for years. It has solid financial backing, and its sales, while weak, are pretty much right on par with a company of this age.

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Lucid also sent a Cease & Desist letter to the publication for their report.

Lucid shares have rebounded nicely and are up nearly 21 percent at the time of publication. As soon as the company dispelled the rumors of bankruptcy yesterday, the stock began to climb back toward more reasonable levels.

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Investor's Corner

Lucid denies rumors of bankruptcy after over 40% stock drop

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Credit: Lucid

Electric vehicle maker Lucid Group has denied rumors of an imminent bankruptcy after a report from this morning sent the stock on a dramatic drop on Wall Street, seeing losses of more than 40 percent during trading hours.

Lucid’s Director of Communications, Nick Twork, responded to the report from Eletric-Vehicles.com, which stated the company’s restructuring advisor, AlixPartners, was asked to review two decisions: taking Lucid shares private or filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection.

The report also claims AlixPartners told the Lucid board to “concentrate on Gravity production while improving its quality, and to temporarily hold back the Lucid Air, the sedan that has defined the company since its launch.”

Twork said:

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Shares rebounded after the response to the report, halving its losses as the trading day neared 3 p.m. Eastern.

Lucid has struggled to get its sales off the ground and into more respectable numbers, but the company is in its early years, when things are hard to begin with. It is also backed by several notable investors, including the Saudi Public Investment Fund (PIF), which has nearly limitless money and likely would not ditch an investment of this size so soon.

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Lucid shares were down just 14 percent at the time of publication, a far cry from the 55 percent its losses topped out at during the day.

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