Investor's Corner
Tesla (TSLA) dips as Cowen predicts $210 price, Model 3 'demand saturation'
Tesla stock (NASDAQ:TSLA) dropped on Monday amid the release of a bearish note from Cowen, which predicted that the electric car maker’s stock price is poised to be halved, and that the Model 3 is experiencing “demand saturation.” On the heels of Cowen’s note, TSLA shares dropped by as much as 4.9%, before seemingly leveling out at around 4% as of writing.
In a note dated December 29, one day before Tesla China held an inaugural delivery for the first 15 Made-in-China Model 3 at Gigafactory 3, Cowen analyst Jeffrey Osborne stated that he expects the electric car maker to miss its 2019 delivery guidance of 360,000 to 400,000 vehicles. According to Osborne, Tesla may deliver only 356,000 cars instead. The analyst also predicted that Model 3 deliveries would be down quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year in Q4 2019, due to what he described as “demand saturation” for the vehicle.
“Excluding the Netherlands and China, we expect Model 3 deliveries to be down 9% quarter over quarter and 7% year over year in the fourth quarter, which highlights the demand saturation we are seeing across most mature markets as we shift from pent-up demand to steady flow demand,” Osborne wrote.
While the Cowen analyst adjusted his delivery estimate for Q4 2019 to 101,000 vehicles from his initial 95,000 estimate, the analyst nevertheless insisted that Tesla’s expansion into China is likely overestimated. The analyst stated that he remains skeptical about Tesla and the Model 3’s long-term demand in China, primarily since the best-selling car in the country, the BAIC EU Series, has sold less than 2,000 vehicles per week as of late. He also cited Tesla’s alleged poor build quality and service issues as headwinds that the company will face in China.
“BAIC’s EU Series has sold less than 2,000 vehicles per week and the top 5 models (all local brands) combined for less than 6,000 vehicles per week. Those models all cost about one-quarter to three-quarters less than what the China-made Model 3 is expected to cost. While Tesla has built a very dedicated fan base that has been willing to excuse poor build quality, customer service, and service infrastructure, we continue to be skeptical around broader adoption,” he noted.
Cowen has given TSLA stock an “Underperform” rating and a price target of $210 per share. That implies a 50% decrease from the stock’s recent levels.
Overall, Cowen’s points against Tesla that were related in Osborne’s recent note echoed much of the older and rather outdated bearish narratives against the electric car maker. Recent reports from China indicate that all vehicles produced in Gigafactory 3 are sold to customers, and speculations are abounding that the massive electric car facility is now producing cars at a rate beyond 1,000 per week. Tesla’s quality issues are also an issue that the company’s China team had seemingly taken as a personal challenge, emphasizing the MIC Model 3’s stellar build quality when the vehicle was initially unveiled to the media.
Thus, inasmuch as Cowen’s sentiments may be valid, there is also a good chance that Osborne’s concerns about the company, particularly with regards to Model 3 demand in China, will be proven wrong in the coming quarters. For now, 15 analysts tracked by Bloomberg rate TSLA stock with the equivalent of a “Sell,” 11 rates the company with a “Buy,” and another 10 recommend a “Hold.” The average price target for Tesla stock is currently at $297 per share.
Disclosure: I have no ownership in shares of TSLA and have no plans to initiate any positions within 72 hours.
Elon Musk
SpaceX Starship Flight 13 aborted at Zero and Musk just told us what broke
Four Raptor engines failed to ignite at T-zero, forcing SpaceX to scrub Starship Flight 13 Thursday.
SpaceX scrubbed the Starship Flight 13 launch attempt Thursday evening at the last possible moment, after four of the Super Heavy booster’s 33 Raptor 3 engines failed to ignite during the startup sequence. The 90-minute window had opened at 6:45 p.m. EDT from Starbase in Boca Chica, Texas, and the countdown had proceeded without issue all day, with more than 11.5 million pounds of liquid methane and liquid oxygen being fully loaded into the rocket before the automated abort triggered. SpaceX’s launch directors posted on X, “Standing down from today’s flight test attempt,” and shut down the livestream shortly after.
Musk confirmed the root cause within hours. “Some of the engines didn’t start, triggering an automatic launch abort,” he wrote on X. “To be confident of a good flight, 2 Raptors will be removed and replaced. Most probable launch timing is early next week.” SpaceX engineers began draining propellant tanks immediately and Booster 20 was rolled back to its hangar for inspection.
The timing adds a layer of significance that did not exist during any of the previous 12 Starship flights. This is the first time SpaceX has attempted to launch Starship since the company made its stock market debut in June, listing under ticker SPCX at $135 per share. Public investors are now watching every Starship outcome in real time, and a last-second abort carries more visibility than it would have six months ago.
Flight 13 was designed to be one of the most consequential tests in the program’s history. It was set to carry 20 Starlink V3 satellites, the first operational payload Starship has ever attempted to deploy. Six of those satellites carried external cameras to photograph Starship’s heat shield from the outside during flight, which would act as a self-inspection approach SpaceX has never attempted before. The mission also needed to complete a Raptor engine relight in space, a step SpaceX skipped on Flight 12 in May after losing an engine during ascent. That Flight 12 booster also flipped 90 degrees off course during its boostback burn when five engines failed to reignite.
SpaceX has not announced an official next launch date. Musk’s “early next week” window points to July 21 or 22 at the earliest, pending the engine swap and a return to the pad.
Lucid CEO Silvio Napoli responded to rumors of an imminent bankruptcy that was reportedly being mulled after a report stated the automaker was working with the firm AlixPartners to iron out its next steps.
The company felt a massive loss on Wall Street yesterday, as the report essentially pushed the stock down as much as 55 percent on Tuesday.
The report, published initially by Eletric-Vehicles.com, claimed Lucid was essentially in dire straits and was told by AlixPartners, a commonly used restructuring advisor, to either take shares private or file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection.
Lucid’s head of Communications, Nick Twork, immediately challenged the report and stated the company “has sufficient liquidity to carry its operations well into next year.”
Now, the company’s CEO is chiming in as well, stating that the report is “so far from the facts that they require a direct response.”
Napoli said:
“Lucid is not considering bankruptcy or a transaction to take the company private. Those reports are false. The Board did not explore either scenario. Period.
As disclosed in our most recent quarterly filing, Lucid has sufficient liquidity to fund its operations well into next year.
We work with outside advisors to improve operational performance and execution. They are not advising Lucid on a take-private transaction or bankruptcy, and any suggestion that they have recommended either course of action to management or the Board is false.
My priority is clear: turn this company around. That is where the leadership team and I are focused.
I look forward to providing a full update during our quarterly earnings call on August 4th.”
🚨 Lucid CEO Silvio Napoli calls rumors of financial issues “so far from the facts that they require a direct response.”
Read his full remarks here: https://t.co/t3Pg1NHvzy pic.twitter.com/LvHUPhO4Qf
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) July 15, 2026
It seems pretty clear that Lucid is confident things will be okay, and, to be honest, they should not have much to worry about, especially considering the company has been backed by the Saudi Public Investment Fund (PIF) for years. It has solid financial backing, and its sales, while weak, are pretty much right on par with a company of this age.
Lucid also sent a Cease & Desist letter to the publication for their report.
Lucid shares have rebounded nicely and are up nearly 21 percent at the time of publication. As soon as the company dispelled the rumors of bankruptcy yesterday, the stock began to climb back toward more reasonable levels.
Electric vehicle maker Lucid Group has denied rumors of an imminent bankruptcy after a report from this morning sent the stock on a dramatic drop on Wall Street, seeing losses of more than 40 percent during trading hours.
Lucid’s Director of Communications, Nick Twork, responded to the report from Eletric-Vehicles.com, which stated the company’s restructuring advisor, AlixPartners, was asked to review two decisions: taking Lucid shares private or filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection.
The report also claims AlixPartners told the Lucid board to “concentrate on Gravity production while improving its quality, and to temporarily hold back the Lucid Air, the sedan that has defined the company since its launch.”
Twork said:
$LCID The rumors are completely false. The company has sufficient liquidity to carry its operations well into next year, as recently published in its last quarterly filings, and it has not formed any special Board committee to explore the scenarios reported today. Our focus is…
— Nick Twork (@ntwork) July 14, 2026
Shares rebounded after the response to the report, halving its losses as the trading day neared 3 p.m. Eastern.
Lucid has struggled to get its sales off the ground and into more respectable numbers, but the company is in its early years, when things are hard to begin with. It is also backed by several notable investors, including the Saudi Public Investment Fund (PIF), which has nearly limitless money and likely would not ditch an investment of this size so soon.
Lucid shares were down just 14 percent at the time of publication, a far cry from the 55 percent its losses topped out at during the day.
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