Investor's Corner
Tesla (TSLA) bull projects massive growth in 2020 even with conservative estimates
This year has been one of Tesla’s most historic yet, with the company’s shares dropping to over two-year lows before recovering and reaching new all-time highs. As 2019 ends with Tesla showing its strength in terms of vehicle production and deliveries, an ardent TSLA bull has stated that the company is on the cusp of even more dramatic growth next year. What’s more, Tesla seems poised for this growth even with conservative estimates.
Forecasts from Tesla investor-enthusiast Galileo Russell of YouTube’s Hyperchange channel have always been on the more conservative side. For his 2020 financial projections, the investor adopted the same stance. Despite this, results from the Hyperchange host’s research points to Tesla potentially delivering around 600,000 electric cars in 2020, provided that Model Y production hits its stride at the latter half of the year. That’s around a quarter of a million more than the vehicles Tesla will likely deliver this year.
In a video outlining his thesis, Russell explained that Tesla is now at a point where its core business is seemingly headed towards more stable waters. Cash flow continues to show strength, and the company is sitting on $5 billion in cash. Demand for its vehicles like the Model 3 is validated by sales in the United States, Europe, and China as well, putting the “demand problem” short thesis to rest. Apart from this, Tesla has returned to profitability, and these sentiments are pretty much reflected in the company’s stock, which has broken the $400 per share barrier while hitting all-time-highs.
In a way, Tesla is in a great place to start producing a vehicle that has the potential to carry it higher: the Model Y. The Model Y is a crossover, which means that it is targeted towards one of the auto industry’s most lucrative segments. If the Model 3, a vehicle that competes in a segment that is showing a decline in several regions, can push Tesla so far up, one can only imagine what the Model Y can do to boost the electric car maker further. Tesla, after all, expects the Model Y to outsell the Model S, Model X, and Model 3 combined.
That being said, the TSLA investor expects Tesla Model Y production to be fairly gradual. Russell was optimistic in his projection that a few Model Y can enter production as early as Q1, but he remained conservative for the first half of the year. Overall, the Hyperchange host expects Model Y to hit its stride in the third quarter with a production of about 25,000 units. If Tesla accomplishes this, Russell noted that the crossover’s production could go as high as 75,000 in Q4. This is despite the investor’s prediction that Model S and X sales will drop to their lowest levels as buyers wait for the vehicles’ Plaid variants, and that the Model 3 will see some cannibalization from its crossover sibling.
It should be noted that Russell’s expectations don’t account for several factors that Tesla could still improve, including efficiencies in its vehicle production process and its gross margins. Considering these factors, Tesla may very well remain profitable while allowing the company to pursue other high-profile projects such as the establishment of the Megacharger Network for the Semi, or the buildout of massive projects such as Gigafactory 4 in Europe.
It should also be noted that the Hyperchange host’s models do not account for any additional revenue streams that Tesla can tap into, such as its batteries and powertrains that could be sold to OEMs for their own electric cars. Elon Musk has stated that he is open to such ideas, and Fiat-Chrysler, which already buys credits from Tesla, has expressed interest in tapping into the Silicon Valley-based company’s technology. Considering the lead that Tesla continues to establish in terms of range and efficiency, the idea of a veteran automaker utilizing the company’s batteries and powertrains is more than feasible.
Tesla stock has been on a massive rally lately, and as shares hit a record high, speculations were abounding that the rise was due to shorts covering, or sentiments improving from investors. Russell argues that the recent stock movement for TSLA is also driven, if not primarily, by the steady improvement in Tesla’s fundamentals. Little by little, Tesla is becoming more and more like a full-fledged business, and as it rakes in the profits amidst its growth, the company may very well be headed towards even more milestones in the near future.
Watch the Hyperchange host’s full forecasts for Tesla in 2020 in the video below.
Elon Musk
Tesla locks in Elon Musk’s top problem solver as it enters its most ambitious era
The generous equity award was disclosed by the electric vehicle maker in a recent regulatory filing.
Tesla has granted Senior Vice President of Automotive Tom Zhu more than 520,000 stock options, tying a significant portion of his compensation to the company’s long-term performance.
The generous equity award was disclosed by the electric vehicle maker in a recent regulatory filing.
Tesla secures top talent
According to a Form 4 filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, Tom Zhu received 520,021 stock options with an exercise price of $435.80 per share. Since the award will not fully vest until March 5, 2031, Zhu must remain at Tesla for more than five years to realize the award’s full benefit.
Considering that Tesla shares are currently trading at around the $445 to $450 per share level, Zhu will really only see gains in his equity award if Tesla’s stock price sees a notable rise over the years, as noted in a Sina Finance report.
Still, even at today’s prices, Zhu’s stock award is already worth over $230 million. If Tesla reaches the market cap targets set forth in Elon Musk’s 2025 CEO Performance Award, Zhu would become a billionaire from this equity award alone.
Tesla’s problem solver
Zhu joined Tesla in April 2014 and initially led the company’s Supercharger rollout in China. Later that year, he assumed the leadership of Tesla’s China business, where he played a central role in Tesla’s localization efforts, including expanding retail and service networks, and later, overseeing the development of Gigafactory Shanghai.
Zhu’s efforts helped transform China into one of Tesla’s most important markets and production hubs. In 2023, Tesla promoted Zhu to Senior Vice President of Automotive, placing him among the company’s core global executives and expanding his influence beyond China. He has since garnered a reputation as the company’s problem solver, being tapped by Elon Musk to help ramp Giga Texas’s vehicle production.
With this in mind, Tesla’s recent filing seems to suggest that the company is locking in its top talent as it enters its newest, most ambitious era to date. As could be seen in the targets of Elon Musk’s 2025 pay package, Tesla is now aiming to be the world’s largest company by market cap, and it is aiming to achieve production levels that are unheard of. Zhu’s talents would definitely be of use in this stage of the company’s growth.
Tesla analyst Andrew Percoco of Morgan Stanley teased the company’s dominance in its self-driving initiative, stating that its lead over competitors is “not even close.”
Percoco recently overtook coverage of Tesla stock from Adam Jonas, who had covered the company at Morgan Stanley for years. Percoco is handling Tesla now that Jonas is covering embodied AI stocks and no longer automotive.
His first move after grabbing coverage was to adjust the price target from $410 to $425, as well as the rating from ‘Overweight’ to ‘Equal Weight.’
Percoco’s new note regarding Tesla highlights the company’s extensive lead in self-driving and autonomy projects, something that it has plenty of competition in, but has established its prowess over the past few years.
He writes:
“It’s not even close. Tesla continues to lead in autonomous driving, even as Nvidia rolls out new technology aimed at helping other automakers build driverless systems.”
Percoco’s main point regarding Tesla’s advantage is the company’s ability to collect large amounts of training data through its massive fleet, as millions of cars are driving throughout the world and gathering millions of miles of vehicle behavior on the road.
This is the main point that Percoco makes regarding Tesla’s lead in the entire autonomy sector: data is King, and Tesla has the most of it.
One big story that has hit the news over the past week is that of NVIDIA and its own self-driving suite, called Alpamayo. NVIDIA launched this open-source AI program last week, but it differs from Tesla’s in a significant fashion, especially from a hardware perspective, as it plans to use a combination of LiDAR, Radar, and Vision (Cameras) to operate.
Percoco said that NVIDIA’s announcement does not impact Morgan Stanley’s long-term opinions on Tesla and its strength or prowess in self-driving.
NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang commends Tesla’s Elon Musk for early belief
And, for what it’s worth, NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang even said some remarkable things about Tesla following the launch of Alpamayo:
“I think the Tesla stack is the most advanced autonomous vehicle stack in the world. I’m fairly certain they were already using end-to-end AI. Whether their AI did reasoning or not is somewhat secondary to that first part.”
Percoco reiterated both the $425 price target and the ‘Equal Weight’ rating on Tesla shares.
Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) just got a price target boost from its biggest bear, Gordon Johnson of GLJ Research, who raised his expected trading level to one that is 95 percent lower than its current trading level.
Johnson pushed his Tesla price target from $19.05 to $25.28 on Wednesday, while maintaining the ‘Sell’ rating that has been present on the stock for a long time. GLJ has largely been recognized as the biggest skeptic of Elon Musk’s company, being particularly critical of the automotive side of things.
Tesla has routinely been called out by Johnson for negative delivery growth, what he calls “weakening demand,” and price cuts that have occurred in past years, all pointing to them as desperate measures to sell its cars.
Johnson has also said that Tesla is extremely overvalued and is too reliant on regulatory credits for profitability. Other analysts on the bullish side recognize Tesla as a company that is bigger than just its automotive side.
Many believe it is a leader in autonomous driving, like Dan Ives of Wedbush, who believes Tesla will have a widely successful 2026, especially if it can come through on its targets and schedules for Robotaxi and Cybercab.
Justifying the price target this week, Johnson said that the revised valuation is based on “reality rather than narrative.” Tesla has been noted by other analysts and financial experts as a stock that trades on narrative, something Johnson obviously disagrees with.
Dan Nathan, a notorious skeptic of the stock, turned bullish late last year, recognizing the company’s shares trade on “technicals and sentiment.” He said, “From a trading perspective, it looks very interesting.”
Tesla bear turns bullish for two reasons as stock continues boost
Johnson has remained very consistent with this sentiment regarding Tesla and his beliefs regarding its true valuation, and has never shied away from putting his true thoughts out there.
Tesla shares closed at $431.40 today, about 95 percent above where Johnson’s new price target lies.
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