Investor's Corner
Tesla dips amid Elon Musk’s 12-month vehicle forecast, TSLA coverage observations
Tesla stock (NASDAQ:TSLA) is dropping after the opening bell on Monday, on the heels of Elon Musk’s new guidance for the company’s performance in the following 12 months, as well as a fresh round of criticisms from its dedicated skeptics.
Musk’s estimate came as part of a discussion about the impact of Tesla in the auto industry. In his tweet, Musk stated that there are 2.5 billion cars and trucks on the planet; thus, even replacing 1% of that number will require a production rate of 25 million vehicles per year. “Tesla will make over 500k cars in next 12 months, but that’s a mere 2% of 25M or 0.02% of global vehicle fleet. Car industry slow -> demand >> supply,” Musk wrote.
Apart from Musk’s comments about Tesla’s production in the coming year, the CEO also discussed his disappointment at the coverage the electric car maker has been receiving from mainstream media. Musk mentioned a number of publications in his tweets, including Bloomberg and The Wall Street Journal. True to form, the Wall Street Journal promptly published a negative piece about Tesla on Monday, criticizing, of all things, how the company “can’t stop dreaming big.”
Tesla has been facing a notable amount of criticism after it released its Q1 vehicle delivery and production report, which revealed that the company showed a roughly 30% decline in electric car deliveries and a 12% decline in production compared to Q4 2018. Tesla’s vehicle deliveries actually grew 110% in the first quarter of 2019 compared to Q1 2018, but these figures mostly got lost in the pileup of negative coverage that the company received after releasing its first-quarter results.
Among the most prominent voices that immediately went on the offensive against Tesla was short-seller and Greenlight Capital CEO David Einhorn, who promptly wrote a letter to investors claiming that “the wheels are falling off” at Tesla, which is allegedly “on the brink” due to slowed demand, “desperate” price cutting, cutting CapEx, layoffs, and the departure of senior executives. Einhorn further blasted the company for allegedly using its customers as “guinea pigs,” while predicting that “without initial surge demand elsewhere, TSLA will struggle to even maintain first quarter unit volumes.”
In response to the Greenlight Capital CEO’s allegations, Fox Business Network’s Charlie Gasparino noted that Tesla’s senior executives remain confident in the company as well as its financial state. Gasparino described the sentiments of Tesla’s senior executives as follows.
“Bankers are now, when you see sort of controversy like this, people questioning the numbers of Tesla, whether it’s selling enough cars, and particularly their cash position, that’s the signal for bankers to go and pitch financing deals to Tesla, and they are doing it actively as we speak. But what the company is saying is much different than what Einhorn is saying. This is what the company is telling bankers: they don’t believe there’s a need for financing in the near-term. What they describe as near-term, three months, maybe six months. They don’t think that their cash position is eroding as fast as the street and Mr. Einhorn and other people think it’s eroding. They believe in the near-term, that their finances are fine,” Gasparino said.
Tesla’s senior executives reportedly maintain support for Elon Musk as well. “Now, we should also point out that Tesla executives and these are senior executives, the conversation always turns to crazy Elon. They describe him as ‘crazy,’ ‘a handful,’ but here’s the best one: ‘a weird dude.’ But they also say, despite his quirks, they describe him as a genius. They also believe in the company, despite all the competition that’s coming at them from others in the electric car space who are gonna get the sort of government handouts that Tesla got early on. They think they have the best electric car in the world. They are well-poised, they got the right guy leading it, (and it’s) a guy who will work 24/7 to make it work,” Gasparino added.
As of writing, Tesla is trading at -3.08% at $259.46 per share.
Disclosure: I have no ownership in shares of TSLA and have no plans to initiate any positions within 72 hours.
Elon Musk
California snubs Tesla in its newly passed EV incentive that favors Rivian and Lucid
California passed a $135 million EV incentive that rewards Rivian and Lucid while sidelining Tesla
California just drew a line in the EV incentive sand to put Tesla on the wrong side of it. The state recently passed a $135 million program offering first-time electric vehicle buyers a direct incentive with no application required, but the rules were written in a way that leaves Tesla at a structural disadvantage compared to Rivian and Lucid.
The program caps eligible vehicles at $50,000 for new EVs and $25,000 for used ones. That pricing threshold rules out a significant portion of Tesla’s lineup, though some lower-priced Model 3 and Model Y configurations would still qualify. California-based automakers are exempt from the price cap entirely, regardless of what their vehicles cost. Rivian, headquartered in Irvine, and Lucid, based in the San Francisco Bay Area, both benefit from that exemption. Rivian’s R2 starts at roughly $45,000 but has versions above the cap. Lucid’s Air and Gravity start at $70,990 and $79,990 respectively, well above any threshold a non-California company would face.
California hits Tesla Cybercab and Robotaxi driverless cars with new law
Tesla built its reputation and a significant portion of its early market share in California, where EV adoption has consistently led the nation. The company operates its original factory in Fremont, California, and the state was home to Tesla’s headquarters for most of its existence. That changed in 2021 when Tesla moved its corporate headquarters to Austin, Texas. Since then, the relationship between the company and California Governor Gavin Newsom has been openly adversarial, with Musk and Newsom trading public criticism on multiple occasions.
California’s EV incentive landscape has shifted repeatedly in recent years, and Tesla has previously lost eligibility for state-level programs as its vehicles exceeded income-adjusted price thresholds. The federal $7,500 EV tax credit, which Tesla models have qualified for and lost depending on policy cycles, is no longer available after it expired without renewal, making state-level programs more meaningful to buyers than they have been in years.
The practical impact for buyers is more nuanced than the headline suggests. California residents purchasing a Tesla under $50,000 for the first time can still access the incentive. But the exemption written for California-based manufacturers is a structural advantage that rewards where a company plants its headquarters flag rather than where it builds its products, and Tesla moved that flag to Texas.
Elon Musk
SpaceX’s newest logo confirms everything about what it’s become
SpaceX officially absorbed xAI under the SpaceXAI brand, completing the largest private merger in history.
SpaceX made its corporate transformation official in May 2026 when Elon Musk posted on X that xAI would cease to exist as a standalone company. “xAI will be dissolved as a separate company, so it will just be SpaceXAI, the AI products from SpaceX,” he wrote.
A new SpaceXAI logo was announced today, visually embedding the xAI letters inside the SpaceX identity, which can be seen as a deliberate design choice that signals the merger is not a partnership but a full absorption and XAi a core function of the same company. The same way Starlink is not a separate brand but a SpaceX product. The announcement closed the loop on a process that began February 2, 2026, when SpaceX acquired xAI in the largest private merger in history, valued at $1.25 trillion. SpaceX at $1 trillion and xAI at $250 billion.
We are now @SpaceXAI. pic.twitter.com/ema66xDWC9
— SpaceXAI (@SpaceXAI) July 6, 2026
The reason SpaceX bought xAI was stated plainly by Musk at the time of the deal: to build orbital data centers. SpaceX had simultaneously filed with the FCC to launch up to one million satellites designed to function as AI compute nodes in low Earth orbit, escaping what Musk described as the energy constraints limiting AI development on Earth.
xAI provided the AI software stack, with Grok, the X platform, and the Colossus supercomputer infrastructure in Memphis with over 220,000 NVIDIA GPUs, while SpaceX provided the rockets, Starlink, and the capital base to fund it. The two companies needed each other. xAI was burning $2.5 billion in losses on $250 million in revenue. SpaceX was generating an estimated $8 billion in profit on $15 billion in revenue and needed an AI narrative to command the valuation it was targeting for its IPO.
What SpaceX has done, regardless of how the orbital AI vision ultimately plays out, is walk into a public market as something no company has been before: a rocket manufacturer, satellite internet provider, AI software company, social media platform, and supercomputer operator under one ticker. Whether that combination is worth $2 trillion depends entirely on which of those businesses you believe in most.
Investor's Corner
Tesla challenges startups to score a gig inside its most advanced European factory
Tesla is challenging startups to bring their best battery tech directly to Gigafactory Berlin.
Tesla has issued an open challenge to startups across Europe, inviting them to bring their best battery technology directly to the floor of Gigafactory Berlin. The program, called the JUNI x Tesla Battery Cell Giga Challenge, opened applications this month with a deadline of July 24, 2026, and is targeting startups with solutions that can make battery cell manufacturing faster, cheaper, safer, and more scalable at an industrial level.
The timing of the challenge is directly tied to Tesla’s most aggressive European battery investment yet. On May 12, 2026, Giga Berlin plant manager André Thierig announced a $250 million investment to scale the factory’s annual 4680 cell production capacity from 8 GWh to 18 GWh, more than doubling the previous target set just months earlier in December 2025. Thierig confirmed the expansion on X, saying the investment “will enable 18 GWh of annual 4680 cell production and create more than 1,500 new jobs.” Combined with a previously announced battery investment at the Grunheide site now approaches $1.2 billion.
Today, we announced a $ 250m investment for our Giga Berlin Cell factory. This will enable 18GWh of annual 4680 cell production and create more than 1500 new jobs. Good news during challenging times for the German industry. pic.twitter.com/ou4SWMfWh9
— André Thierig (@AndrThie) May 12, 2026
The challenge is looking specifically for startups with proven solutions across five categories: materials, equipment, operations, automation, and artificial intelligence. Applications are screened directly by Tesla’s cell manufacturing team in Grunheide, and the strongest submissions move through technical discussions, a pitch day in front of Tesla stakeholders, and potentially a paid pilot project with the cell team. Tesla is not looking for ideas at concept stage. The program requires applicants to demonstrate working prototypes, test data, or prior pilots before being considered.
The historical context matters here. Elon Musk first announced plans for what he called the world’s largest battery cell production facility alongside the Giga Berlin car factory back in 2020, targeting up to 250 GWh of annual capacity. Those plans were shelved in 2022 when Tesla shifted its battery investment focus to the United States to take advantage of Inflation Reduction Act incentives. The revival of cell production at Giga Berlin, now backed by over $1 billion in committed capital, represents a return to an ambition that was set aside for three years. As Teslarati has reported, the 4680 format is central to Tesla’s long-term cost reduction strategy across vehicles, energy storage, including the Tesla Semi and Cybercab.
By opening the challenge to outside startups, Tesla is acknowledging that reaching 18 GWh at Grunheide will require technology it does not currently have in-house, and it is willing to pay for the right solutions. For a startup in the battery supply chain, a paid pilot with Tesla’s European cell team is as close to a direct commercial path as the industry offers.
Tesla app update makes Robotaxi ownership make a lot more sense
California snubs Tesla in its newly passed EV incentive that favors Rivian and Lucid
