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Tesla analysts weigh in as TSLA falls 8% following production and delivery report

Tesla shares (NASDAQ:TSLA) experienced a steep drop on Thursday in the wake of the release of its Q1 2019 vehicle production and delivery report, which showed a roughly 30% decline in deliveries and a 12% drop in production. These declines were especially prominent in the Model S and Model X.

The electric car maker’s stock has always been polarizing, and this became even more prominent following the release of Tesla’s Q1 numbers. Analysts from both the bull and bear side have weighed in on Tesla’s results for the first quarter. Here are some of their takes:

RBC analysts took particular notice to the company’s Model S and Model X delivery numbers, which they called “very disappointing.” The analysts also estimated that the flagship vehicles’ numbers will translate to an over $1 billion shortfall in revenue for the company.

Cowen and Co analysts expressed their reservations about the company’s funds, stating that the delivery and transit details released by the electric car maker suggested that “cash was likely dangerously low” following Tesla’s payment of a $920 million convertible bond obligation in cash at the beginning of March.

Analysts from JP Morgan gave Tesla an Underweight rating while lowering their price target to $200 from $215. The analysts noted that “Tesla’s 1Q19 vehicle production & deliveries report was substantially worse than expected.” The analysts also took note of the Model S and X’s decline in sales, stating the drop could be “implying a deceleration in underlying demand unrelated to temporary delivery difficulties (maybe due to tax credit expiration?).”

Canaccord Genuity analysts have taken a more optimistic stance, reiterating their Buy rating while adjusting their price target from $450 to $391. The analysts points out that while they were “disappointed in the shortfall of deliveries in Q1 versus expectations,” they “continue to believe that the new lower-priced Model 3 variant will spur additional demand.”

Loup Ventures remained quite optimistic about Tesla as well, despite admitting that the magnitude of the Model S and X miss was a surprise. The firm noted that it was “focused on underlying demand,” highlighting Tesla’s statement that it has “sufficient cash on hand.” The firm added that while it is “unlikely that Tesla will have to raise money in the Jun-19 quarter, (but) we believe raising money would be the right strategic move long-term.”

While Tesla stock is getting beaten down on Thursday, there have been no notable downgrades by any brokerages so far. Tesla shares are currently rated “Buy” or higher by 12 of the 30 brokerages covering the company, 7 rated the company with a “Hold,” and 11 kept a “Sell” or lower rating. Part of this could be due to Elon Musk already setting expectations early in March, when he stated that Tesla might not be profitable this quarter.

Tesla’s production and delivery figures for the first quarter highlights the company’s growing pains as it starts pushing the Model 3 to international markets. In Q1 2019, Tesla produced a total of 77,100 vehicles, consisting of 62,950 Model 3 and 14,150 Model S and X. Total deliveries declined to 63,000 vehicles, which is comprised of approximately 50,900 Model 3 and 12,100 Model S and X.

As of writing, Tesla shares are trading -7.75% at $269.19.

Disclosure: I have no ownership in shares of TSLA and have no plans to initiate any positions within 72 hours.

Tesla analysts weigh in as TSLA falls 8% following production and delivery report
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