Investor's Corner
Tesla’s (TSLA) fundamental difference on Wall St., and competitors can’t keep up
Tesla has enjoyed a significant rally on Wall Street in 2020. The meteoric rise of a once-small, likely unsuccessful automotive company is truly a prime example of the American economy working to the advantage of the dreamer. At one time, Tesla was out of money and had to plead for investors to funnel in more funds to keep its doors open. Years later, the company is the hottest stock in the American economy, up 650% on the year, despite not having more than two operational car production facilities.
Some may ask: Why is this small, relatively new car company running amok in the industry? What do they have that the competitors don’t? Why is Tesla so much more appealing to investors now than any other company? There are a lot of responses that may adequately answer any of these questions. But the real answer that generally covers all of these bases is that Tesla is more about the message than the money. While the supremely high valuation spells something as large as Apple or Facebook, Tesla is leading a charge in an industry full of attractive names. The fact is, Tesla has the shiniest name of all.
Perhaps, in the field of sustainable energy companies, there may be some real players that hold significant amounts of power. But the fact is, none of the names, or Tesla, were taken seriously up until a few years ago. Sustainable energy and the idea of sourcing power from the sun, wind, and other clean outlets was not a broadly accepted idea in the United States. While wind farms and solar panels have existed all over this country, the idea of powering anything from a house to a business with something other than coal or natural gas wasn’t a big thing, especially in Pennsylvania, where I am from.
But now, the idea of having sustainable sources of energy are translating into a nationwide phenomenon. And when trends begin to turn, the investor begins to see dollar signs. The thing is this: the sustainable energy movement is here, and it’s been here, and it’s only going to get bigger. More people will begin using solar panels because they’re becoming more affordable for the average American to purchase. More people will begin driving electric cars because they are becoming more affordable, they require less maintenance, and there are more environmental advantages. This is where the industry of sustainable energy becomes more competitive, and more companies are looking for their slice of the pie.
The problem for companies that have a history of using non-sustainable products is that their name is tarnished, and it would require a new identity to expunge the investor’s mind of negative thoughts. On the other hand, the companies that don’t have that past, like Tesla, for example, bring a conditioned picture of an electric car and sustainable products to the investor’s head. And the average investor will be more prone to purchase products from an exciting and somewhat proven company than from one that is transitioning from gas to electric and basically has to reestablish itself from the ground up.
The sentiment on companies that have a sustainable name has changed. Once “dead end” companies that have exploded into real industry players, they are more appealing to the common investor. People are not thinking about their dollars right now; they’re thinking about the future. Tesla’s mission is about the future, and people are investing their money in TSLA shares because they know where the future is headed. They also know who is leading them there, and that is the company that is going to get the shares bought and see the stock price increase. Clean energy has been around for decades, but it’s always been a second-thought because gas and oil have provided jobs and economic stability. There’s no reason that the U.S. sustainable energy market can’t do the same thing, and it will if jobs are kept on American soil.
The act of having investors forget about the sustainable energy movement is over, and Tesla has essentially ended the stigma on clean energy stocks, proving they can be winners and big ones at that.
Tesla’s effort in R&D and innovation also has helped the stock price, obviously. But, the common investor is also driving up demand for the stock. That’s why TSLA’s $5 billion offering was snapped up in a matter of a day and a handful of hours.
Tesla has scheduled its Earnings Call for Q4 and Full Year 2025 for next Wednesday, January 28, at 5:30 p.m. EST, and investors are already preparing to get some answers from executives regarding a wide variety of topics.
The company accepts several questions from retail investors through the platform Say, which then allows shareholders to vote on the best questions.
Tesla does not answer anything regarding future product releases, but they are willing to shed light on current timelines, progress of certain projects, and other plans.
There are five questions that range over a variety of topics, including SpaceX, Full Self-Driving, Robotaxi, and Optimus, which are currently in the lead to be asked and potentially answered by Elon Musk and other Tesla executives:
- You once said: Loyalty deserves loyalty. Will long-term Tesla shareholders still be prioritized if SpaceX does an IPO?
- Our Take – With a lot of speculation regarding an incoming SpaceX IPO, Tesla investors, especially long-term ones, should be able to benefit from an early opportunity to purchase shares. This has been discussed endlessly over the past year, and we must be getting close to it.
- When is FSD going to be 100% unsupervised?
- Our Take – Musk said today that this is essentially a solved problem, and it could be available in the U.S. by the end of this year.
- What is the current bottleneck to increase Robotaxi deployment & personal use unsupervised FSD? The safety/performance of the most recent models or people to monitor robots, robotaxis, in-car, or remotely? Or something else?
- Our Take – The bottleneck seems to be based on data, which Musk said Tesla needs 10 billion miles of data to achieve unsupervised FSD. Once that happens, regulatory issues will be what hold things up from moving forward.
- Regarding Optimus, could you share the current number of units deployed in Tesla factories and actively performing production tasks? What specific roles or operations are they handling, and how has their integration impacted factory efficiency or output?
- Our Take – Optimus is going to have a larger role in factories moving forward, and later this year, they will have larger responsibilities.
- Can you please tie purchased FSD to our owner accounts vs. locked to the car? This will help us enjoy it in any Tesla we drive/buy and reward us for hanging in so long, some of us since 2017.
- Our Take – This is a good one and should get us some additional information on the FSD transfer plans and Subscription-only model that Tesla will adopt soon.
Tesla will have its Earnings Call on Wednesday, January 28.
Elon Musk
Tesla locks in Elon Musk’s top problem solver as it enters its most ambitious era
The generous equity award was disclosed by the electric vehicle maker in a recent regulatory filing.
Tesla has granted Senior Vice President of Automotive Tom Zhu more than 520,000 stock options, tying a significant portion of his compensation to the company’s long-term performance.
The generous equity award was disclosed by the electric vehicle maker in a recent regulatory filing.
Tesla secures top talent
According to a Form 4 filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, Tom Zhu received 520,021 stock options with an exercise price of $435.80 per share. Since the award will not fully vest until March 5, 2031, Zhu must remain at Tesla for more than five years to realize the award’s full benefit.
Considering that Tesla shares are currently trading at around the $445 to $450 per share level, Zhu will really only see gains in his equity award if Tesla’s stock price sees a notable rise over the years, as noted in a Sina Finance report.
Still, even at today’s prices, Zhu’s stock award is already worth over $230 million. If Tesla reaches the market cap targets set forth in Elon Musk’s 2025 CEO Performance Award, Zhu would become a billionaire from this equity award alone.
Tesla’s problem solver
Zhu joined Tesla in April 2014 and initially led the company’s Supercharger rollout in China. Later that year, he assumed the leadership of Tesla’s China business, where he played a central role in Tesla’s localization efforts, including expanding retail and service networks, and later, overseeing the development of Gigafactory Shanghai.
Zhu’s efforts helped transform China into one of Tesla’s most important markets and production hubs. In 2023, Tesla promoted Zhu to Senior Vice President of Automotive, placing him among the company’s core global executives and expanding his influence beyond China. He has since garnered a reputation as the company’s problem solver, being tapped by Elon Musk to help ramp Giga Texas’s vehicle production.
With this in mind, Tesla’s recent filing seems to suggest that the company is locking in its top talent as it enters its newest, most ambitious era to date. As could be seen in the targets of Elon Musk’s 2025 pay package, Tesla is now aiming to be the world’s largest company by market cap, and it is aiming to achieve production levels that are unheard of. Zhu’s talents would definitely be of use in this stage of the company’s growth.
Tesla analyst Andrew Percoco of Morgan Stanley teased the company’s dominance in its self-driving initiative, stating that its lead over competitors is “not even close.”
Percoco recently overtook coverage of Tesla stock from Adam Jonas, who had covered the company at Morgan Stanley for years. Percoco is handling Tesla now that Jonas is covering embodied AI stocks and no longer automotive.
His first move after grabbing coverage was to adjust the price target from $410 to $425, as well as the rating from ‘Overweight’ to ‘Equal Weight.’
Percoco’s new note regarding Tesla highlights the company’s extensive lead in self-driving and autonomy projects, something that it has plenty of competition in, but has established its prowess over the past few years.
He writes:
“It’s not even close. Tesla continues to lead in autonomous driving, even as Nvidia rolls out new technology aimed at helping other automakers build driverless systems.”
Percoco’s main point regarding Tesla’s advantage is the company’s ability to collect large amounts of training data through its massive fleet, as millions of cars are driving throughout the world and gathering millions of miles of vehicle behavior on the road.
This is the main point that Percoco makes regarding Tesla’s lead in the entire autonomy sector: data is King, and Tesla has the most of it.
One big story that has hit the news over the past week is that of NVIDIA and its own self-driving suite, called Alpamayo. NVIDIA launched this open-source AI program last week, but it differs from Tesla’s in a significant fashion, especially from a hardware perspective, as it plans to use a combination of LiDAR, Radar, and Vision (Cameras) to operate.
Percoco said that NVIDIA’s announcement does not impact Morgan Stanley’s long-term opinions on Tesla and its strength or prowess in self-driving.
NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang commends Tesla’s Elon Musk for early belief
And, for what it’s worth, NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang even said some remarkable things about Tesla following the launch of Alpamayo:
“I think the Tesla stack is the most advanced autonomous vehicle stack in the world. I’m fairly certain they were already using end-to-end AI. Whether their AI did reasoning or not is somewhat secondary to that first part.”
Percoco reiterated both the $425 price target and the ‘Equal Weight’ rating on Tesla shares.
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