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Tesla’s (TSLA) fundamental difference on Wall St., and competitors can’t keep up

(Photo: Andres GE)

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Tesla has enjoyed a significant rally on Wall Street in 2020. The meteoric rise of a once-small, likely unsuccessful automotive company is truly a prime example of the American economy working to the advantage of the dreamer. At one time, Tesla was out of money and had to plead for investors to funnel in more funds to keep its doors open. Years later, the company is the hottest stock in the American economy, up 650% on the year, despite not having more than two operational car production facilities.

Some may ask: Why is this small, relatively new car company running amok in the industry? What do they have that the competitors don’t? Why is Tesla so much more appealing to investors now than any other company? There are a lot of responses that may adequately answer any of these questions. But the real answer that generally covers all of these bases is that Tesla is more about the message than the money. While the supremely high valuation spells something as large as Apple or Facebook, Tesla is leading a charge in an industry full of attractive names. The fact is, Tesla has the shiniest name of all.

Perhaps, in the field of sustainable energy companies, there may be some real players that hold significant amounts of power. But the fact is, none of the names, or Tesla, were taken seriously up until a few years ago. Sustainable energy and the idea of sourcing power from the sun, wind, and other clean outlets was not a broadly accepted idea in the United States. While wind farms and solar panels have existed all over this country, the idea of powering anything from a house to a business with something other than coal or natural gas wasn’t a big thing, especially in Pennsylvania, where I am from.

But now, the idea of having sustainable sources of energy are translating into a nationwide phenomenon. And when trends begin to turn, the investor begins to see dollar signs. The thing is this: the sustainable energy movement is here, and it’s been here, and it’s only going to get bigger. More people will begin using solar panels because they’re becoming more affordable for the average American to purchase. More people will begin driving electric cars because they are becoming more affordable, they require less maintenance, and there are more environmental advantages. This is where the industry of sustainable energy becomes more competitive, and more companies are looking for their slice of the pie.

How Tesla’s Solar program has become the cheapest in the US

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The problem for companies that have a history of using non-sustainable products is that their name is tarnished, and it would require a new identity to expunge the investor’s mind of negative thoughts. On the other hand, the companies that don’t have that past, like Tesla, for example, bring a conditioned picture of an electric car and sustainable products to the investor’s head. And the average investor will be more prone to purchase products from an exciting and somewhat proven company than from one that is transitioning from gas to electric and basically has to reestablish itself from the ground up.

The sentiment on companies that have a sustainable name has changed. Once “dead end” companies that have exploded into real industry players, they are more appealing to the common investor. People are not thinking about their dollars right now; they’re thinking about the future. Tesla’s mission is about the future, and people are investing their money in TSLA shares because they know where the future is headed. They also know who is leading them there, and that is the company that is going to get the shares bought and see the stock price increase. Clean energy has been around for decades, but it’s always been a second-thought because gas and oil have provided jobs and economic stability. There’s no reason that the U.S. sustainable energy market can’t do the same thing, and it will if jobs are kept on American soil.

The act of having investors forget about the sustainable energy movement is over, and Tesla has essentially ended the stigma on clean energy stocks, proving they can be winners and big ones at that.

Tesla’s effort in R&D and innovation also has helped the stock price, obviously. But, the common investor is also driving up demand for the stock. That’s why TSLA’s $5 billion offering was snapped up in a matter of a day and a handful of hours.

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Joey has been a journalist covering electric mobility at TESLARATI since August 2019. In his spare time, Joey is playing golf, watching MMA, or cheering on any of his favorite sports teams, including the Baltimore Ravens and Orioles, Miami Heat, Washington Capitals, and Penn State Nittany Lions. You can get in touch with joey at joey@teslarati.com. He is also on X @KlenderJoey. If you're looking for great Tesla accessories, check out shop.teslarati.com

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Investor's Corner

SpaceX IPO is coming, CEO Elon Musk confirms

However, it appears Musk is ready for SpaceX to go public, as Ars Technica Senior Space Editor Eric Berger wrote an op-ed that indicated he thought SpaceX would go public soon. Musk replied, basically confirming it.

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elon musk side profile
Joel Kowsky, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons

Elon Musk confirmed through a post on X that a SpaceX initial public offering (IPO) is on the way after hinting at it several times earlier this year.

It also comes one day after Bloomberg reported that SpaceX was aiming for a valuation of $1.5 trillion, adding that it wanted to raise $30 billion.

Musk has been transparent for most of the year that he wanted to try to figure out a way to get Tesla shareholders to invest in SpaceX, giving them access to the stock.

He has also recognized the issues of having a public stock, like litigation exposure, quarterly reporting pressures, and other inconveniences.

However, it appears Musk is ready for SpaceX to go public, as Ars Technica Senior Space Editor Eric Berger wrote an op-ed that indicated he thought SpaceX would go public soon.

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Musk replied, basically confirming it:

Berger believes the IPO would help support the need for $30 billion or more in capital needed to fund AI integration projects, such as space-based data centers and lunar satellite factories. Musk confirmed recently that SpaceX “will be doing” data centers in orbit.

AI appears to be a “key part” of SpaceX getting to Musk, Berger also wrote. When writing about whether or not Optimus is a viable project and product for the company, he says that none of that matters. Musk thinks it is, and that’s all that matters.

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It seems like Musk has certainly mulled something this big for a very long time, and the idea of taking SpaceX public is not just likely; it is necessary for the company to get to Mars.

The details of when SpaceX will finally hit that public status are not known. Many of the reports that came out over the past few days indicate it would happen in 2026, so sooner rather than later.

But there are a lot of things on Musk’s plate early next year, especially with Cybercab production, the potential launch of Unsupervised Full Self-Driving, and the Roadster unveiling, all planned for Q1.

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Investor's Corner

Tesla Full Self-Driving statistic impresses Wall Street firm: ‘Very close to unsupervised’

The data shows there was a significant jump in miles traveled between interventions as Tesla transitioned drivers to v14.1 back in October. The FSD Community Tracker saw a jump from 441 miles to over 9,200 miles, the most significant improvement in four years.

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla Full Self-Driving performance and statistics continue to impress everyone, from retail investors to Wall Street firms. However, one analyst believes Tesla’s driving suite is “very close” to achieving unsupervised self-driving.

On Tuesday, Piper Sandler analyst Alexander Potter said that Tesla’s recent launch of Full Self-Driving version 14 increased the number of miles traveled between interventions by a drastic margin, based on data compiled by a Full Self-Driving Community Tracker.

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The data shows there was a significant jump in miles traveled between interventions as Tesla transitioned drivers to v14.1 back in October. The FSD Community Tracker saw a jump from 441 miles to over 9,200 miles, the most significant improvement in four years.

Interestingly, there was a slight dip in the miles traveled between interventions with the release of v14.2. Piper Sandler said investor interest in FSD has increased.

Full Self-Driving has displayed several improvements with v14, including the introduction of Arrival Options that allow specific parking situations to be chosen by the driver prior to arriving at the destination. Owners can choose from Street Parking, Parking Garages, Parking Lots, Chargers, and Driveways.

Additionally, the overall improvements in performance from v13 have been evident through smoother operation, fewer mistakes during routine operation, and a more refined decision-making process.

Early versions of v14 exhibited stuttering and brake stabbing, but Tesla did a great job of confronting the issue and eliminating it altogether with the release of v14.2.

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Tesla CEO Elon Musk also recently stated that the current v14.2 FSD suite is also less restrictive with drivers looking at their phones, which has caused some controversy within the community.

Although we tested it and found there were fewer nudges by the driver monitoring system to push eyes back to the road, we still would not recommend it due to laws and regulations.

Tesla Full Self-Driving v14.2.1 texting and driving: we tested it

With that being said, FSD is improving significantly with each larger rollout, and Musk believes the final piece of the puzzle will be unveiled with FSD v14.3, which could come later this year or early in 2026.

Piper Sandler reaffirmed its $500 price target on Tesla shares, as well as its ‘Overweight’ rating.

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Investor's Corner

Tesla gets price target boost, but it’s not all sunshine and rainbows

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Credit: Tesla Europe & Middle East/X

Tesla received a price target boost from Morgan Stanley, according to a new note on Monday morning, but there is some considerable caution also being communicated over the next year or so.

Morgan Stanley analyst Andrew Percoco took over Tesla coverage for the firm from longtime bull Adam Jonas, who appears to be focusing on embodied AI stocks and no longer automotive.

Percoco took over and immediately adjusted the price target for Tesla from $410 to $425, and changed its rating on shares from ‘Overweight’ to ‘Equal Weight.’

Percoco said he believes Tesla is the leading company in terms of electric vehicles, manufacturing, renewable energy, and real-world AI, so it deserves a premium valuation. However, he admits the high expectations for the company could provide for a “choppy trading environment” for the next year.

He wrote:

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“However, high expectations on the latter have brought the stock closer to fair valuation. While it is well understood that Tesla is more than an auto manufacturer, we expect a choppy trading environment for the TSLA shares over the next 12 months, as we see downside to estimates, while the catalysts for its non-auto businesses appear priced at current levels.”

Percoco also added that if market cap hurdles are achieved, Morgan Stanley would reduce its price target by 7 percent.

Perhaps the biggest change with Percoco taking over the analysis for Jonas is how he will determine the value of each individual project. For example, he believes Optimus is worth about $60 per share of equity value.

He went on to describe the potential value of Full Self-Driving, highlighting its importance to the Tesla valuation:

“Full Self Driving (FSD) is the crown jewel of Tesla’s auto business; we believe that its leading-edge personal autonomous driving offering is a real game changer, and will remain a significant competitive advantage over its EV and non-EV peers. As Tesla continues to improve its platform with increased levels of autonomy (i.e., hands-off, eyes-off), it will revolutionize the personal driving experience. It remains to be seen if others will be able to keep pace.”

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Additionally, Percoco outlined both bear and bull cases for the stock. He believes $860 per share, “which could be in play in the next 12 months if Tesla manages through the EV-downturn,” while also scaling Robotaxi, executing on unsupervised FSD, and scaling Optimus, is in play for the bull case.

Will Tesla thrive without the EV tax credit? Five reasons why they might

Meanwhile, the bear case is placed at $145 per share, and “assumes greater competition and margin pressure across all business lines, embedding zero value for humanoids, slowing the growth curve for Tesla’s robotaxi fleet to reflect regulatory challenges in scaling a vision-only perception stack, and lowering market share and margin profile for the autos and energy businesses.”

Currently, Tesla shares are trading at around $441.

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