Investor's Corner
Tesla gains ‘investment grade’ rating at S&P following strong YTD ’22
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) gained its “investment grade” rating from the S&P today, moving from BB+ to BBB, based on the company’s strong performance in 2022 so far.
Tesla gained the BBB rating on Thursday, officially moving out of the “Junk” category and into “Investment Grade,” which is considered “from best quality to good quality but somewhat vulnerable to changing economic conditions,” according to Thompson-Reuters Practical Law.
“Tesla Inc.’s reported production and deliveries for the nine months ended Sept. 30, 2022, were higher than our expectations and the ramp-up in its global capacity appears on track to meet the strong demand for its products into 2023,” the report said. “We now view Tesla’s credit profile more favorably because it continues to demonstrate market leadership in electric vehicles (EVs), with solid manufacturing effeiceny that supports strong EBITDA margins and sustained positive free operating cash flow (FOCF), above our previously established upside triggers.”
S&P also stated it now expects Tesla to sell 2 million units in 2023, up from its previous outlook of just 1.5 million units, which it could technically reach in 2022. “This will help sustain its solid market share within EVs amid intensifying competition and aggressive launches by automakers globally, particularly in China and Europe.”
Tesla’s financials, including sustainable free cash flow, have triggered the S&P to increase its rating of the automaker. “In 2022 and 2023, we expected Tesla to sustain FOCF to sales of over 10%, compared with our prior upside trigger of 2%, backed by industry-leading EBITDA margins of roughly 20%, compared with our upside trigger of 18% and well above our 10% threshold for above average automakers.”
The S&P holds the right to upgrade or downgrade any company at any time, and it listed potential scenarios for both regarding Tesla:
“We could lower our ratings if:
- Tesla adopts a more aggressive financial policy with respect to shareholder distributions, growth of its captive finance operations or other business segments, and acquisitions, such that financial cushion reduces materially; or
- It cannot sustain solid FOCF due to slowing growth or higher-than-expected spending
We could raise our ratings if:
- Tesla sustains its first-mover advantage as EV demand expands and competition intensifies such that its global light vehicle market share appears likely to exceed 5%;
- It appears likely to sustain its recent track record of free cash flow beyond 2024′ and
- It remains committed to a prudent financial policy in line with a higher rating.”
The S&P stated it currently projects Tesla at around 1.5 percent market share globally in terms of the light vehicle market, which is estimated to be roughly 80 million cars this year.
Tesla has been upgraded several times since 2019 but has not been able to shed the “Junk” category until today. Its most recent upgrade before today was in April when it was moved to BB+ based on the company’s Q1 results which “indicated solid execution and prospects for robust free cash flow in 2022 amid supply disruptions,” the organization wrote in a bulletin.
Disclosure: Joey Klender is a TSLA Shareholder.
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Quotes from S&P provided by StreetInsider.
Investor's Corner
Tesla wins $508 price target from Stifel as Robotaxi rollout gains speed
The firm cited meaningful progress in Tesla’s robotaxi roadmap, ongoing Full Self-Driving enhancements, and the company’s long-term growth initiatives.
Tesla received another round of bullish analyst updates this week, led by Stifel, raising its price target to $508 from $483 while reaffirming a “Buy” rating. The firm cited meaningful progress in Tesla’s robotaxi roadmap, ongoing Full Self-Driving enhancements, and the company’s long-term growth initiatives.
Robotaxi rollout, FSD updates, and new affordable cars
Stifel expects Tesla’s robotaxi fleet to expand into 8–10 major metropolitan areas by the end of 2025, including Austin, where early deployments without safety drivers are targeted before year-end. Additional markets under evaluation include Nevada, Florida, and Arizona, as noted in an Investing.com report. The firm also highlighted strong early performance for FSD Version 14, with upcoming releases adding new “reasoning capabilities” designed to improve complex decision-making using full 360-degree vision.
Tesla has also taken steps to offset the loss of U.S. EV tax credits by launching the Model Y Standard and Model 3 Standard at $39,990 and $36,990, Stifel noted. Both vehicles deliver more than 300 miles of range and are positioned to sustain demand despite shifting incentives. Stifel raised its EBITDA forecasts to $14.9 billion for 2025 and $19.5 billion for 2026, assigning partial valuation weightings to Tesla’s FSD, robotaxi, and Optimus initiatives.
TD Cowen also places an optimistic price target
TD Cowen reiterated its Buy rating with a $509 price target after a research tour of Giga Texas, citing production scale and operational execution as key strengths. The firm posted its optimistic price target following a recent Mobility Bus tour in Austin. The tour included a visit to Giga Texas, which offered fresh insights into the company’s operations and prospects.
Additional analyst movements include Truist Securities maintaining its Hold rating following shareholder approval of Elon Musk’s compensation plan, viewing the vote as reducing leadership uncertainty.
@teslarati Tesla Full Self-Driving yields for pedestrians while human drivers do not…the future is here! #tesla #teslafsd #fullselfdriving ♬ 2 Little 2 Late – Levi & Mario
Investor's Corner
Tesla receives major institutional boost with Nomura’s rising stake
The move makes Tesla Nomura’s 10th-largest holding at about 1% of its entire portfolio.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) has gained fresh institutional support, with Nomura Asset Management expanding its position in the automaker.
Nomura boosted its Tesla holdings by 4.2%, adding 47,674 shares and bringing its total position to more than 1.17 million shares valued at roughly $373.6 million. The move makes Tesla Nomura’s 10th-largest holding at about 1% of its entire portfolio.
Institutional investors and TSLA
Nomura’s filing was released alongside several other fund updates. Brighton Jones LLC boosted its holdings by 11.8%, as noted in a MarketBeat report, and Revolve Wealth Partners lifted its TSLA position by 21.2%. Bison Wealth increased its Tesla stake by 52.2%, AMG National Trust Bank increased its position in shares of Tesla by 11.8%, and FAS Wealth Partners increased its TSLA holdings by 22.1%. About 66% of all outstanding Tesla shares are now owned by institutional investors.
The buying comes shortly after Tesla reported better-than-expected quarterly earnings, posting $0.50 per share compared with the $0.48 consensus. Revenue reached $28.10 billion, topping Wall Street’s $24.98 billion estimate. Despite the earnings beat, Tesla continues to trade at a steep premium relative to peers, with a market cap hovering around $1.34 trillion and a price-to-earnings ratio near 270.
Recent insider sales
Some Tesla insiders have sold stock as of late. CFO Vaibhav Taneja sold 2,606 shares in early September for just over $918,000, reducing his personal stake by about 21%. Director James R. Murdoch executed a far larger sale, offloading 120,000 shares for roughly $42 million and trimming his holdings by nearly 15%. Over the past three months, Tesla insiders have collectively sold 202,606 shares valued at approximately $75.6 million, as per SEC disclosures.
Tesla is currently entering its next phase of growth, and if it is successful, it could very well become the world’s most valuable company as a result. The company has several high-profile projects expected to be rolled out in the coming years, including Optimus, the humanoid robot, and the Cybercab, an autonomous two-seater with the potential to change the face of roads across the globe.
@teslarati Tesla Full Self-Driving yields for pedestrians while human drivers do not…the future is here! #tesla #teslafsd #fullselfdriving ♬ 2 Little 2 Late – Levi & Mario
Investor's Corner
Ron Baron states Tesla and SpaceX are lifetime investments
Baron, one of Tesla’s longest-standing bulls, reiterated that his personal stake in the company remains fully intact even as volatility pressures the broader market.
Billionaire investor Ron Baron says he isn’t touching a single share of his personal Tesla holdings despite the recent selloff in the tech sector. Baron, one of Tesla’s longest-standing bulls, reiterated that his personal stake in the company remains fully intact even as volatility pressures the broader market.
Baron doubles down on Tesla
Speaking on CNBC’s Squawk Box, Baron stated that he is largely unfazed by the market downturn, describing his approach during the selloff as simply “looking” for opportunities. He emphasized that Tesla remains the centerpiece of his long-term strategy, recalling that although Baron Funds once sold 30% of its Tesla position due to client pressure, he personally refused to trim any of his personal holdings.
“We sold 30% for clients. I did not sell personally a single share,” he said. Baron’s exposure highlighted this stance, stating that roughly 40% of his personal net worth is invested in Tesla alone. The legendary investor stated that he has already made about $8 billion from Tesla from an investment of $400 million when he started, and believes that figure could rise fivefold over the next decade as the company scales its technology, manufacturing, and autonomy roadmap.
A lifelong investment
Baron’s commitment extends beyond Tesla. He stated that he also holds about 25% of his personal wealth in SpaceX and another 35% in Baron mutual funds, creating a highly concentrated portfolio built around Elon Musk–led companies. During the interview, Baron revisited a decades-old promise he made to his fund’s board when he sought approval to invest in publicly traded companies.
“I told the board, ‘If you let me invest a certain amount of money, then I will promise that I won’t sell any of my stock. I will be the last person out of the stock,’” he said. “I will not sell a single share of my shares until my clients sold 100% of their shares. … And I don’t expect to sell in my lifetime Tesla or SpaceX.”
Watch Ron Baron’s CNBC interview below.
@teslarati :rotating_light: This is why you need to use off-peak rates at Tesla Superchargers! #tesla #evcharging #fyp ♬ Blue Moon – Muspace Lofi
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