

Investor's Corner
Tesla (TSLA) pops amid analyst’s expectations of positive Q2 Model 3 deliveries
Tesla stock (NASDAQ:TSLA) popped on Monday following the release of a positive note from JMP Securities analyst Joseph Osha, who stated that the electric car maker could have delivered over 40,000 Model 3 in the United States during the second quarter. TSLA stock’s upward movement also came amidst a bearish note from longtime skeptic Colin Langan from UBS, who recently doubled down on his pessimistic stance on the company.
In a report published on Monday morning, the JMP Securities analyst stated that he expects Tesla to report Model 3 deliveries of around 43,000 vehicles in Q2, which is nearly double its Q1 US delivery numbers and roughly in line with the company’s forecasts. The JMP Securities analyst estimates Tesla’s total deliveries in Q2 2019 to be around 97,000 vehicles, “with all of the upside coming from Model 3 volume.”
This is far beyond that of other analysts covering TSLA, whose average estimates for the second quarter currently stand at 88,000 vehicle deliveries. As for concerns about how Tesla could raise its Model 3 numbers following its lower-than-expected output in Q1 2019, Osha stated that there appears to be some disconnect. “In general we think the Street is underestimating the pace of recovery in Model 3 demand in the US, and additionally is not accounting for a full quarter of Model 3 exports,” he wrote.
JMP Securities analyst Joseph Osha currently maintains a $347 price target and a Market Outperform rating for TSLA stock.
Osha’s forecasts lie opposite those of longtime TSLA bear Colin Langan from UBS. In a recent note, Langan lowered his price target for Tesla once more, arguing that it “looks possible” that the electric car maker will report sales of around 87,000 vehicles in the second quarter. In his note, Langan maintained his Sell rating on the stock, giving the company a price target of $160. “We expect losses in the second half to increase as deliveries likely soften, and the impact of pricing actions continues to weigh on margins,” Langan said.
In an appearance at CNBC’s Trading Nation last Friday, the analyst also stated that he expects losses in the second half of the year. “We remain very cautious, particularly as you go to the second half of the year. Consensus has them earning a profit. With weakening deliveries and this consistent margin pressure, we expect losses in the second half,” he added.
As for Tesla’s recent rally, which saw the company recover about 18% in the past four weeks, Langan believes that the uptrend was simply due to the impending phaseout of the $3,750 tax credit for Tesla buyers. “You’ve got to realize that July 1 you’ll have another about $1900 phase down of the US energy tax credit. So, you actually have some pull forward this month as people getting ahead of that. I think demand actually will probably drop off more than people are expecting,” he said.
Similar to Goldman Sachs, whose analyst David Tamberrino has maintained a constant Sell rating on TSLA despite the firm’s investment bank holding shares of the electric car maker, UBS, its affiliates or its subsidiaries beneficially owned around 1% or more Tesla shares as of last month, according to a CNBC report. Considering UBS analyst Colin Langan’s longtime bearish stance, this particular detail is quite notable.
Tesla has completed yet another end-of-quarter push, one that involved the company’s employees pushing hard to deliver as many vehicles as possible in the final weeks of June. Leaked emails from Elon Musk in the weeks and days leading up to Q2’s end suggested that the electric car maker was close to its target of delivering more than 90,000 vehicles in Q2. Analysts polled by FactSet, on the other hand, expect Tesla to report a total of 91,000 vehicle deliveries, including 74,100 Model 3 in the second quarter.
As of writing, TSLA stock is trading +2.43% at $228.89 per share.
Disclosure: I have no ownership in shares of TSLA and have no plans to initiate any positions within 72 hours.
Investor's Corner
Goldman Sachs reduces Tesla price target to $285
Despite Goldman Sach’s NASDAQ: TSLA price cut to $285, Tesla boasts $95.7B in revenue & nearly $1T market cap.

Goldman Sachs analysts cut Tesla’s price target to $285 from $295, maintaining a Neutral rating.
The adjustment reflects weaker sales performance across key markets, with Tesla shares trading at $284.70, down nearly 18% in the past week. The analysts pointed to declining sales data in the United States, Europe, and China as the primary driver for the revised outlook. In the U.S., Tesla’s quarter-to-date deliveries through May fell mid-teens year-over-year, according to Wards and Motor Intelligence.
In Europe, April registrations plummeted 50% year-over-year, with May showing a mid-20% decline, per industry data. Meanwhile, the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) reported a 20% year-over-year drop in May, despite a 5.5% sequential increase from April. Consumer surveys from HundredX and Morning Consult also shaped Goldman Sachs’ lowered delivery and EPS forecasts.
Goldman Sachs now projects Tesla’s second-quarter deliveries to range between 335,000 and 395,000 vehicles, with a base case of 365,000, down from a prior estimate of 410,000 and below the Visible Alpha Consensus of 417,000. Despite these headwinds, Tesla’s financials remain strong, with $95.7 billion in trailing twelve-month revenue and a $917 billion market capitalization.
Regionally, Tesla’s challenges are stark. In Germany, the German road traffic agency KBA reported Tesla’s May sales dropped 36.2% year-over-year, despite a 44.9% surge in overall electric vehicle registrations. Tesla’s sales fell 29% last month in Spain, according to the ANFAC industry group. These declines highlight shifting consumer preferences amid growing competition.
On a positive note, Tesla is making strategic moves. The Model 3 and Model Y are part of a Chinese government campaign to boost rural sales, potentially mitigating losses. Piper Sandler analysts reiterated an Overweight rating, emphasizing Tesla’s supply chain strategy.
Alexander Potter stated, “Thanks to vertical integration, Tesla is the only car company that is trying to source batteries, at scale, without relying on China.”
As Tesla navigates these delivery challenges, its focus on innovation and supply chain resilience could help it maintain its edge in the electric vehicle market despite short-term hurdles.
Elon Musk
Elon Musk explains Tesla’s domestic battery strategy
Elon Musk responded to a new note from an analyst that highlighted Tesla’s battery strategy.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk explained the automaker’s strategy for building batteries from top to bottom in a domestic setting as the company continues to alleviate its reliance on Chinese materials, something other companies are too dependent on.
With the Trump Administration, it is no secret that the prioritization of U.S.-built products, including sourcing most of the materials from American companies, is at the forefront of its strategy.
The goal is to become less dependent on foreign products, which would, in theory, bolster the U.S. economy by creating more jobs and having less reliance on foreign markets, especially China, to manufacture the key parts of things like cars and tech.
In a note from Alexander Potter, an analyst for the firm Piper Sandler, Tesla’s strategy regarding batteries specifically is broken down.
Potter says Tesla is “the only car company that is trying to source batteries, at scale, without relying on China.”
He continues:
“Eventually, Tesla will be making its own cathode active materials, refining its own lithium, building its own anodes, coating its own electrodes, assembling its own cells, and selling its own cars; No other US company can make similar claims.”
Musk, who spent time within the Trump White House through his work with the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), said that Tesla is doing the “important” work of localizing supply chains as the risks that come with being too dependent on foreign entities could be detrimental to a company, especially one that utilizes many parts and supplies that are manufactured mostly in China.
It is important, albeit extremely hard work, to localize supply chains to mitigate geopolitical risk
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) June 3, 2025
Tesla has done a lot of work to source and even manufacture its own batteries within the United States, a project that has been in progress for several years but will pay dividends in the end.
According to a 2023 Nikkei analysis, Tesla’s battery material suppliers were dominated by Chinese companies. At the time, a whopping 39 percent of the company’s cell materials came from Chinese companies.
This number is decreasing as it operates its own in-house cell and material production projects, like its lithium refinery in Texas.
It also wants to utilize battery manufacturers that have plans to build cells in the U.S.
Panasonic, for example, is building a facility in Kansas that will help Tesla utilize domestically-manufactured cells for its cars.
Elon Musk
Tesla stock: Morgan Stanley says eVTOL is calling Elon Musk for new chapter
Could Tesla dive into the eVTOL market? Morgan Stanley takes a look.

Tesla shares are up nearly 20 percent in the past month, but that is not stopping the only trillion-dollar automaker from attracting all types of new potential sectors to disrupt, at least from an investor and analyst perspective.
Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas is not one to shy away from some ideas that many investors would consider far-fetched. In a recent note, Jonas brought up some interesting discussion regarding Tesla’s potential in the eVTOL industry, and how he believes CEO Elon Musk’s answer was not convincing enough to put it off altogether.
Tesla’s Elon Musk says electric planes would be ‘fun problem to work on’
Musk said that Tesla was “stretched pretty thin” when a question regarding a plane being developed came up. Jonas said:
“In our opinion, that’s a decidedly different type of answer. Is Tesla an aviation/defense-tech company in auto/consumer clothing?”
Musk has been pretty clear about things that Tesla won’t do. Although he has not unequivocally denied aviation equipment, including planes and drones, as he has with things like motorcycles, it does not seem like something that is on Musk’s mind.
Instead, he has focused the vast majority of his time at Tesla on vehicle autonomy, AI, and robotics, things he sees as the future.
Tesla and China, Robotics, Pricing
Morgan Stanley’s note also discussed Tesla’s prowess in its various areas of expertise, how it will keep up with Chinese competitors, as there are several, and the race for affordable EVs in the country.
Tesla is the U.S.’s key to keeping up with China
“In our view, Tesla’s expertise in manufacturing, data collection, robotics/ physical AI, energy, supply chain, and infrastructure are more critical than ever before to put the US on an even footing with China in embodied AI,” Jonas writes.
It is no secret that Tesla is the leader in revolutionizing things. To generalize, the company has truly dipped its finger in all the various pies, but it is also looked at as a leader in tech, which is where Chinese companies truly have an advantage.
Robotics and the ‘Humanoid Olympics’
Jonas mentioned China’s recent showcasing of robots running half marathons and competing in combat sports as “gamification of robotic innovation.”
Tesla could be at the forefront of the effort to launch something similar, as the analyst predicts the U.S. version could be called “Humanoid Ninja Warrior.”
Pricing
Tesla is set to launch affordable models before the end of Q2, leaving this month for the company to release some details.
While the pricing of those models remains in limbo with the $7,500 tax credit likely disappearing at the end of 2024, companies in China have been able to tap incredibly aggressive pricing models. Jonas, for example, brings up the BYD Seagull, which is priced at just about $8,000.
Tesla can tap into an incredibly broader market if it can manage to bring pricing to even below $30,000, which is where many hope the affordable models end up.
During the Q3 2024 Earnings Call, Musk said that $30,000 is where it would be with the tax credit:
“Yeah. It will be like with incentive. So, 30K, which is kind of a key threshold.”
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