Investor's Corner
Tesla (TSLA) pops amid analyst’s expectations of positive Q2 Model 3 deliveries
Tesla stock (NASDAQ:TSLA) popped on Monday following the release of a positive note from JMP Securities analyst Joseph Osha, who stated that the electric car maker could have delivered over 40,000 Model 3 in the United States during the second quarter. TSLA stock’s upward movement also came amidst a bearish note from longtime skeptic Colin Langan from UBS, who recently doubled down on his pessimistic stance on the company.
In a report published on Monday morning, the JMP Securities analyst stated that he expects Tesla to report Model 3 deliveries of around 43,000 vehicles in Q2, which is nearly double its Q1 US delivery numbers and roughly in line with the company’s forecasts. The JMP Securities analyst estimates Tesla’s total deliveries in Q2 2019 to be around 97,000 vehicles, “with all of the upside coming from Model 3 volume.”
This is far beyond that of other analysts covering TSLA, whose average estimates for the second quarter currently stand at 88,000 vehicle deliveries. As for concerns about how Tesla could raise its Model 3 numbers following its lower-than-expected output in Q1 2019, Osha stated that there appears to be some disconnect. “In general we think the Street is underestimating the pace of recovery in Model 3 demand in the US, and additionally is not accounting for a full quarter of Model 3 exports,” he wrote.
JMP Securities analyst Joseph Osha currently maintains a $347 price target and a Market Outperform rating for TSLA stock.
Osha’s forecasts lie opposite those of longtime TSLA bear Colin Langan from UBS. In a recent note, Langan lowered his price target for Tesla once more, arguing that it “looks possible” that the electric car maker will report sales of around 87,000 vehicles in the second quarter. In his note, Langan maintained his Sell rating on the stock, giving the company a price target of $160. “We expect losses in the second half to increase as deliveries likely soften, and the impact of pricing actions continues to weigh on margins,” Langan said.
In an appearance at CNBC’s Trading Nation last Friday, the analyst also stated that he expects losses in the second half of the year. “We remain very cautious, particularly as you go to the second half of the year. Consensus has them earning a profit. With weakening deliveries and this consistent margin pressure, we expect losses in the second half,” he added.
As for Tesla’s recent rally, which saw the company recover about 18% in the past four weeks, Langan believes that the uptrend was simply due to the impending phaseout of the $3,750 tax credit for Tesla buyers. “You’ve got to realize that July 1 you’ll have another about $1900 phase down of the US energy tax credit. So, you actually have some pull forward this month as people getting ahead of that. I think demand actually will probably drop off more than people are expecting,” he said.
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Similar to Goldman Sachs, whose analyst David Tamberrino has maintained a constant Sell rating on TSLA despite the firm’s investment bank holding shares of the electric car maker, UBS, its affiliates or its subsidiaries beneficially owned around 1% or more Tesla shares as of last month, according to a CNBC report. Considering UBS analyst Colin Langan’s longtime bearish stance, this particular detail is quite notable.
Tesla has completed yet another end-of-quarter push, one that involved the company’s employees pushing hard to deliver as many vehicles as possible in the final weeks of June. Leaked emails from Elon Musk in the weeks and days leading up to Q2’s end suggested that the electric car maker was close to its target of delivering more than 90,000 vehicles in Q2. Analysts polled by FactSet, on the other hand, expect Tesla to report a total of 91,000 vehicle deliveries, including 74,100 Model 3 in the second quarter.
As of writing, TSLA stock is trading +2.43% at $228.89 per share.
Disclosure: I have no ownership in shares of TSLA and have no plans to initiate any positions within 72 hours.
SpaceX stock did the opposite of what most of Wall Street expected this week, when the day designed to be its most dangerous turned into a rally, and the rally kept going.
Thursday marked the first major lockup expiration since SpaceX’s June IPO, making roughly 911.5 million insider held shares eligible to trade for the first time, more than doubling the company’s public float. Analysts and short sellers had spent weeks bracing for a flood of selling, especially after the stock fell 13 percent following its first earnings report as a public company on Tuesday. Instead, shares rose 6.1 percent Thursday to close at $114.92, and by Friday they were trading near $129, up more than another 12 percent on the day.
SpaceX shorts get warned by Musk ally, echoing Tesla’s early struggles
The setup made the outcome notable. Short interest had climbed to roughly 34 percent of the float heading into earnings, among the highest of any large cap stock, with about 95 percent of available shares to borrow already on loan. CEO Elon Musk warned short sellers twice in the weeks before the lockup, writing on X that “the survival probability of firms who maintain a significant short position in SpaceX over time is very low,” then following up on the morning of earnings with “I try to warn them, but they just double down.”
When the newly unlocked shares hit the market and the selloff never showed up, some of that short position appears to have started unwinding. TipRanks reported that options activity shifted toward bullish strategies like put selling and risk reversals following the rally, with roughly $600 million in options premium trading Thursday alone. Retail buyers also stepped in during the earnings dip, according to Vanda Research.
The fundamentals behind the stock have not changed much in a week. SpaceX’s revenue nearly doubled year over year to $7.8 billion, with Starlink subscribers doubling to 12 million and the company’s AI segment growing 247 percent. What spooked investors on Tuesday was the spending side. Capital expenditures jumped to more than $18 billion for the quarter, up from $2.8 billion a year earlier, with AI investment alone rising from $749 million to $15.8 billion. Wall Street remains split on whether that spending is building infrastructure SpaceX needs or outrunning what the business can currently support, a debate Teslarati has tracked since shares first came under pressure.
None of that resolves the bigger question hanging over the stock. Thursday’s release was only the first of nine staggered lockup tranches, with roughly $800 billion worth of additional shares scheduled to become eligible through October, and Musk’s own stake stays locked until next June. If this week is any indication, the market is treating that supply as something it can absorb rather than something to fear, at least for now.
Cybertruck
Tesla Cybertruck production snaps back after ugly supplier fight
Cybertrucks are piling up again at Giga Texas after Tesla’s court win against a parts supplier.
Cybertruck production at Giga Texas is showing its first visible recovery since Tesla sued a supplier last month over withheld manufacturing tooling.
Aerial observer Joe Tegtmeyer flew over the Austin factory Wednesday morning and counted roughly 100 or more Cybertrucks filling the outbound lot, a sharp jump from the thin numbers seen in recent weeks. The flyover came a day after a judge granted Tesla a temporary restraining order against Angstrom Automotive Group, the parts supplier at the center of the dispute.
Tesla filed an emergency lawsuit in late July after Angstrom told the automaker it planned to close the Troy, Texas facility where Tesla’s die-cast tools, trim dies and other Cybertruck stamping equipment were housed. According to Tesla’s complaint, a shipment of 700 finished parts never left the building, and when Tesla sent representatives to retrieve its equipment, accompanied by law enforcement, they were turned away. Angstrom allegedly then asked for an extra $250,000 a week to keep operating, which Tesla’s filing described as holding its own property for ransom.
TESLA: U.S. District Judge Christopher R. Wolfe of the U.S. District Court for the Western District of Texas, Waco Division granted Tesla a Temporary Restraining Order and Writ of Replevin in its dispute with Angstrom Automotive (Case No. 6:26-cv-00477).
The order authorizes… https://t.co/E1DKcQSxMn pic.twitter.com/LR8aAiV2Og
— S.E. Robinson, Jr. (@SERobinsonJr) August 5, 2026
The restraining order gives Tesla immediate right of entry to Angstrom’s facility to recover the tooling. It is temporary, with a fuller hearing still to come, but the speed of Wednesday’s rebound suggests the Angstrom shortage was indeed the main bottleneck limiting Cybertruck output. Outbound lot counts are an imperfect measure of actual production, since finished trucks can sit for days before shipping, but a lot that full after a lean stretch is a meaningful signal.
Cybertruck output at Giga Texas has fluctuated all year as Tesla worked through supply issues and introduced new trims, including a cheaper Dual Motor AWD version that drew strong early demand.
Venture capitalist Chamath Palihapitiya has cautioned investors shorting SpaceX shares, drawing a direct parallel to the intense short-selling pressure Tesla faced in its early public years.
Responding to reports of elevated short interest in the newly public rocket, satellite, and AI company, Palihapitiya noted that similar dynamics played out with Tesla, where aggressive short sellers ultimately “went broke.”
SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) went public on June 12, 2026, in the largest IPO on record, pricing at $135 per share. Shares quickly surged to an all-time high of $225.64 just days later, briefly implying a valuation exceeding $2 trillion. The stock has since retreated sharply amid valuation concerns, lockup expiration fears, and broader market dynamics.
By early August, it traded near $108–$125, representing a roughly 50 percent decline from the peak and bringing the market capitalization closer to the $1.5–1.7 trillion range. On August 4, shares closed up more than 9 percent at $125.33 ahead of earnings before facing pressure in after-hours and premarket trading.
Short interest has climbed dramatically. According to S3 Partners data widely cited in market reports, short positions reached approximately 219.3 million shares by late July, about 34 percent of the limited public float of roughly 640 million shares, and represented a notional value of around $24.6 billion.
Utilization of shares available to borrow hit 95 percent, with borrow fees rising. This level of shorting exceeded the dollar value of short bets against Tesla at the time and built rapidly ahead of two catalysts: the company’s first post-IPO earnings and an August 6 lockup expiration that could free up to 911.5 million additional shares.
CEO Elon Musk has issued warnings of his own. In mid-July, as short interest approached one-third of the float, he posted that “the survival probability of firms who maintain a significant short position in SpaceX over time is very low,” reiterating his view that the company could ultimately be worth more than Earth if it achieves its goals.
On August 4, just before earnings, Musk responded to the latest short-interest data by saying, “I try to warn them, but they just double down.”
SpaceX delivered its first quarterly results as a public company after the close on August 4. Second-quarter revenue rose 92 percent year-over-year to $7.8 billion, beating consensus estimates near $6.8–6.9 billion.
The net loss narrowed to $541 million, or 9 cents per share, better than the roughly 23–24 cent loss expected. Starlink/connectivity contributed about $4.3 billion (up 66 percent), while the AI business generated $2.6 billion (up roughly 250 percent). Capital expenditures were heavy at $18.4 billion, largely tied to AI infrastructure. Management projected a $100 billion annualized revenue run rate by year-end 2026 and outlined a path toward $1 trillion in annual revenue by 2030.
The combination of Chamath’s historical reminder, Musk’s repeated alerts, and the company’s ambitious growth targets underscores the high-stakes debate surrounding SPCX. Short sellers are positioned for near-term supply pressure from the lockup, while long-term bulls point to Starlink scale, Starship progress, and AI compute expansion as reasons the bears may ultimately face the same fate as many early Tesla skeptics.
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