Investor's Corner
Tesla (TSLA) pops amid analyst’s expectations of positive Q2 Model 3 deliveries
Tesla stock (NASDAQ:TSLA) popped on Monday following the release of a positive note from JMP Securities analyst Joseph Osha, who stated that the electric car maker could have delivered over 40,000 Model 3 in the United States during the second quarter. TSLA stock’s upward movement also came amidst a bearish note from longtime skeptic Colin Langan from UBS, who recently doubled down on his pessimistic stance on the company.
In a report published on Monday morning, the JMP Securities analyst stated that he expects Tesla to report Model 3 deliveries of around 43,000 vehicles in Q2, which is nearly double its Q1 US delivery numbers and roughly in line with the company’s forecasts. The JMP Securities analyst estimates Tesla’s total deliveries in Q2 2019 to be around 97,000 vehicles, “with all of the upside coming from Model 3 volume.”
This is far beyond that of other analysts covering TSLA, whose average estimates for the second quarter currently stand at 88,000 vehicle deliveries. As for concerns about how Tesla could raise its Model 3 numbers following its lower-than-expected output in Q1 2019, Osha stated that there appears to be some disconnect. “In general we think the Street is underestimating the pace of recovery in Model 3 demand in the US, and additionally is not accounting for a full quarter of Model 3 exports,” he wrote.
JMP Securities analyst Joseph Osha currently maintains a $347 price target and a Market Outperform rating for TSLA stock.
Osha’s forecasts lie opposite those of longtime TSLA bear Colin Langan from UBS. In a recent note, Langan lowered his price target for Tesla once more, arguing that it “looks possible” that the electric car maker will report sales of around 87,000 vehicles in the second quarter. In his note, Langan maintained his Sell rating on the stock, giving the company a price target of $160. “We expect losses in the second half to increase as deliveries likely soften, and the impact of pricing actions continues to weigh on margins,” Langan said.
In an appearance at CNBC’s Trading Nation last Friday, the analyst also stated that he expects losses in the second half of the year. “We remain very cautious, particularly as you go to the second half of the year. Consensus has them earning a profit. With weakening deliveries and this consistent margin pressure, we expect losses in the second half,” he added.
As for Tesla’s recent rally, which saw the company recover about 18% in the past four weeks, Langan believes that the uptrend was simply due to the impending phaseout of the $3,750 tax credit for Tesla buyers. “You’ve got to realize that July 1 you’ll have another about $1900 phase down of the US energy tax credit. So, you actually have some pull forward this month as people getting ahead of that. I think demand actually will probably drop off more than people are expecting,” he said.
Similar to Goldman Sachs, whose analyst David Tamberrino has maintained a constant Sell rating on TSLA despite the firm’s investment bank holding shares of the electric car maker, UBS, its affiliates or its subsidiaries beneficially owned around 1% or more Tesla shares as of last month, according to a CNBC report. Considering UBS analyst Colin Langan’s longtime bearish stance, this particular detail is quite notable.
Tesla has completed yet another end-of-quarter push, one that involved the company’s employees pushing hard to deliver as many vehicles as possible in the final weeks of June. Leaked emails from Elon Musk in the weeks and days leading up to Q2’s end suggested that the electric car maker was close to its target of delivering more than 90,000 vehicles in Q2. Analysts polled by FactSet, on the other hand, expect Tesla to report a total of 91,000 vehicle deliveries, including 74,100 Model 3 in the second quarter.
As of writing, TSLA stock is trading +2.43% at $228.89 per share.
Disclosure: I have no ownership in shares of TSLA and have no plans to initiate any positions within 72 hours.
Tesla bear Michael Burry got blunt with his beliefs over the company’s valuation, which he called “ridiculously overvalued” in a newsletter to subscribers this past weekend.
“Tesla’s market capitalization is ridiculously overvalued today and has been for a good long time,” Burry, who was the inspiration for the movie The Big Short, and was portrayed by Christian Bale.
Burry went on to say, “As an aside, the Elon cult was all-in on electric cars until competition showed up, then all-in on autonomous driving until competition showed up, and now is all-in on robots — until competition shows up.”
Tesla bear Michael Burry ditches bet against $TSLA, says ‘media inflated’ the situation
For a long time, Burry has been skeptical of Tesla, its stock, and its CEO, Elon Musk, even placing a $530 million bet against shares several years ago. Eventually, Burry’s short position extended to other supporters of the company, including ARK Invest.
Tesla has long drawn skepticism from investors and more traditional analysts, who believe its valuation is overblown. However, the company is not traded as a traditional stock, something that other Wall Street firms have recognized.
While many believe the company has some serious pull as an automaker, an identity that helped it reach the valuation it has, Tesla has more than transformed into a robotics, AI, and self-driving play, pulling itself into the realm of some of the most recognizable stocks in tech.
Burry’s Scion Asset Management has put its money where its mouth is against Tesla stock on several occasions, but the firm has not yielded positive results, as shares have increased in value since 2020 by over 115 percent. The firm closed in May.
In 2020, it launched its short position, but by October 2021, it had ditched that position.
Tesla has had a tumultuous year on Wall Street, dipping significantly to around the $220 mark at one point. However, it rebounded significantly in September, climbing back up to the $400 region, as it currently trades at around $430.
It closed at $430.14 on Monday.
Investor's Corner
Mizuho keeps Tesla (TSLA) “Outperform” rating but lowers price target
As per the Mizuho analyst, upcoming changes to EV incentives in the U.S. and China could affect Tesla’s unit growth more than previously expected.
Mizuho analyst Vijay Rakesh lowered Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) price target to $475 from $485, citing potential 2026 EV subsidy cuts in the U.S. and China that could pressure deliveries. The firm maintained its Outperform rating for the electric vehicle maker, however.
As per the Mizuho analyst, upcoming changes to EV incentives in the U.S. and China could affect Tesla’s unit growth more than previously expected. The U.S. accounted for roughly 37% of Tesla’s third-quarter 2025 sales, while China represented about 34%, making both markets highly sensitive to policy shifts. Potential 50% cuts to Chinese subsidies and reduced U.S. incentives affected the firm’s outlook.
With those pressures factored in, the firm now expects Tesla to deliver 1.75 million vehicles in 2026 and 2 million in 2027, slightly below consensus estimates of 1.82 million and 2.15 million, respectively. The analyst was cautiously optimistic, as near-term pressure from subsidies is there, but the company’s long-term tech roadmap remains very compelling.
Despite the revised target, Mizuho remained optimistic on Tesla’s long-term technology roadmap. The firm highlighted three major growth drivers into 2027: the broader adoption of Full Self-Driving V14, the expansion of Tesla’s Robotaxi service, and the commercialization of Optimus, the company’s humanoid robot.
“We are lowering TSLA Ests/PT to $475 with Potential BEV headwinds in 2026E. We believe into 2026E, US (~37% of TSLA 3Q25 sales) EV subsidy cuts and China (34% of TSLA 3Q25 sales) potential 50% EV subsidy cuts could be a headwind to EV deliveries.
“We are now estimating TSLA deliveries for 2026/27E at 1.75M/2.00M (slightly below cons. 1.82M/2.15M). We see some LT drivers with FSD v14 adoption for autonomous, robotaxi launches, and humanoid robots into 2027 driving strength,” the analyst noted.
Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) has landed an elusive “must own” status from Wall Street firm Melius, according to a new note released early this week.
Analyst Rob Wertheimer said Tesla will lead the charge in world-changing tech, given the company’s focus on self-driving, autonomy, and Robotaxi. In a note to investors, Wertheimer said “the world is about to change, dramatically,” because of the advent of self-driving cars.
He looks at the industry and sees many potential players, but the firm says there will only be one true winner:
“Our point is not that Tesla is at risk, it’s that everybody else is.”
The major argument is that autonomy is nearing a tipping point where years of chipping away at the software and data needed to develop a sound, safe, and effective form of autonomous driving technology turn into an avalanche of progress.
Wertheimer believes autonomy is a $7 trillion sector,” and in the coming years, investors will see “hundreds of billions in value shift to Tesla.”
A lot of the major growth has to do with the all-too-common “butts in seats” strategy, as Wertheimer believes that only a fraction of people in the United States have ridden in a self-driving car. In Tesla’s regard, only “tens of thousands” have tried Tesla’s latest Full Self-Driving (Supervised) version, which is v14.
Tesla Full Self-Driving v14.2 – Full Review, the Good and the Bad
When it reaches a widespread rollout and more people are able to experience Tesla Full Self-Driving v14, he believes “it will shock most people.”
Citing things like Tesla’s massive data pool from its vehicles, as well as its shift to end-to-end neural nets in 2021 and 2022, as well as the upcoming AI5 chip, which will be put into a handful of vehicles next year, but will reach a wider rollout in 2027, Melius believes many investors are not aware of the pace of advancement in self-driving.
Tesla’s lead in its self-driving efforts is expanding, Wertheimer says. The company is making strategic choices on everything from hardware to software, manufacturing, and overall vehicle design. He says Tesla has left legacy automakers struggling to keep pace as they still rely on outdated architectures and fragmented supplier systems.
Tesla shares are up over 6 percent at 10:40 a.m. on the East Coast, trading at around $416.
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