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Investor's Corner

Tesla’s next step of dominance comes from Trump EV tax credit policy: Wedbush

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The loss of the $7,500 electric vehicle tax credit could be the key to Tesla’s next step of dominance, and as it has already been the holder of a vast majority of the market share of EVs in the U.S., its lead could get larger.

Rumors that the EV tax credit would disappear under the Trump adminsitration were circulating through the media before he was even elected to his second term. However, nobody is totally surprised that Trump, who was critical of President Biden’s EV policy, would get rid of the government incentive.

Yesterday, Reuters said in an exclusive report that sources close to the Trump administration are already planning to get rid of the $7,500 tax credit on new EVs, a move that will impact both the consumer and large companies.

Trump White House plans to ‘kill’ EV tax credit: report

However, Wedbush analyst Dan Ives believes the lack of a tax credit will actually benefit Tesla rather than hurt it. Other companies do not have the same luxury, the analyst says, but Tesla is in a position where it can lose the tax credit and still maintain sales because of its lower price point.

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Other companies might not have the same luxury. While GM and Ford have been able to bring the costs of their EVs down, they have not been able to bring a product that truly impacts Tesla from a singular standpoint. Their pulling of market share from Elon Musk’s company comes because there are so many competitors on the market now that they are all chipping away at what is a group vs. individual race.

The lack of a tax credit will also benefit Tesla as it will make competing EVs less attractive from a pricing standpoint, Ives writes in a note to investors:

“In line with our thoughts over the past few weeks Tesla has a scale and scope that is unmatched and while losing the EV tax credit could also hurt some demand on the margins in the US, this will enable Tesla to further fend off competition from Detroit as pricing/scale/scope is an apples to oranges when compared to the rest of the auto industry once the EV tax credit disappears.”

Wedbush is more concerned with what Detroit-based legacy automakers will do now that the credit is in jeopardy. There are also startups like Rivian who will feel the impact of this program being eliminated:

“This EV tax credit removal could clearly slow down Detroit’s shift to EVs over the next few years but we continue to believe GM is well positioned on both its ICE vehicles as well as its EV lineup. Rivian has continued to battle supply chain headwinds and while the EV tax credit removal would be a negative for its business, overall given the high price of its core vehicles we do not see this moving the needle significantly on the demand front.”

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The removal of the tax credit’s impact on each specific company might be something we have to wait for to see the true weight of, but it is no secret that it will certainly make consumer decisions more difficult. For many, the tax credit is the difference between being able to afford a car and sticking with the ride you have.

With Musk’s newfound influence in the White House thanks to a new role with Trump, perhaps the EV sector will see a new incentive program that will still keep companies alive while also benefitting consumers.

Need accessories for your Tesla? Check out the Teslarati Marketplace:

Please email me with questions and comments at joey@teslarati.com. I’d love to chat! You can also reach me on Twitter @KlenderJoey, or if you have news tips, you can email us at tips@teslarati.com.

Joey has been a journalist covering electric mobility at TESLARATI since August 2019. In his spare time, Joey is playing golf, watching MMA, or cheering on any of his favorite sports teams, including the Baltimore Ravens and Orioles, Miami Heat, Washington Capitals, and Penn State Nittany Lions. You can get in touch with joey at joey@teslarati.com. He is also on X @KlenderJoey. If you're looking for great Tesla accessories, check out shop.teslarati.com

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Investor's Corner

Goldman Sachs reduces Tesla price target to $285

Despite Goldman Sach’s NASDAQ: TSLA price cut to $285, Tesla boasts $95.7B in revenue & nearly $1T market cap.

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(Credit: Tesla)

Goldman Sachs analysts cut Tesla’s price target to $285 from $295, maintaining a Neutral rating.

The adjustment reflects weaker sales performance across key markets, with Tesla shares trading at $284.70, down nearly 18% in the past week. The analysts pointed to declining sales data in the United States, Europe, and China as the primary driver for the revised outlook. In the U.S., Tesla’s quarter-to-date deliveries through May fell mid-teens year-over-year, according to Wards and Motor Intelligence.

In Europe, April registrations plummeted 50% year-over-year, with May showing a mid-20% decline, per industry data. Meanwhile, the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) reported a 20% year-over-year drop in May, despite a 5.5% sequential increase from April. Consumer surveys from HundredX and Morning Consult also shaped Goldman Sachs’ lowered delivery and EPS forecasts.

Goldman Sachs now projects Tesla’s second-quarter deliveries to range between 335,000 and 395,000 vehicles, with a base case of 365,000, down from a prior estimate of 410,000 and below the Visible Alpha Consensus of 417,000. Despite these headwinds, Tesla’s financials remain strong, with $95.7 billion in trailing twelve-month revenue and a $917 billion market capitalization.

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Regionally, Tesla’s challenges are stark. In Germany, the German road traffic agency KBA reported Tesla’s May sales dropped 36.2% year-over-year, despite a 44.9% surge in overall electric vehicle registrations. Tesla’s sales fell 29% last month in Spain, according to the ANFAC industry group. These declines highlight shifting consumer preferences amid growing competition.

On a positive note, Tesla is making strategic moves. The Model 3 and Model Y are part of a Chinese government campaign to boost rural sales, potentially mitigating losses. Piper Sandler analysts reiterated an Overweight rating, emphasizing Tesla’s supply chain strategy.

Alexander Potter stated, “Thanks to vertical integration, Tesla is the only car company that is trying to source batteries, at scale, without relying on China.”

As Tesla navigates these delivery challenges, its focus on innovation and supply chain resilience could help it maintain its edge in the electric vehicle market despite short-term hurdles.

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Elon Musk explains Tesla’s domestic battery strategy

Elon Musk responded to a new note from an analyst that highlighted Tesla’s battery strategy.

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Elon Musk giving YouTube tech reviewer Marques Brownlee a tour of the Fremont factory. (Credit: MKBHD/YouTube)

Tesla CEO Elon Musk explained the automaker’s strategy for building batteries from top to bottom in a domestic setting as the company continues to alleviate its reliance on Chinese materials, something other companies are too dependent on.

With the Trump Administration, it is no secret that the prioritization of U.S.-built products, including sourcing most of the materials from American companies, is at the forefront of its strategy.

The goal is to become less dependent on foreign products, which would, in theory, bolster the U.S. economy by creating more jobs and having less reliance on foreign markets, especially China, to manufacture the key parts of things like cars and tech.

In a note from Alexander Potter, an analyst for the firm Piper Sandler, Tesla’s strategy regarding batteries specifically is broken down.

Potter says Tesla is “the only car company that is trying to source batteries, at scale, without relying on China.”

He continues:

“Eventually, Tesla will be making its own cathode active materials, refining its own lithium, building its own anodes, coating its own electrodes, assembling its own cells, and selling its own cars; No other US company can make similar claims.”

Musk, who spent time within the Trump White House through his work with the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), said that Tesla is doing the “important” work of localizing supply chains as the risks that come with being too dependent on foreign entities could be detrimental to a company, especially one that utilizes many parts and supplies that are manufactured mostly in China.

Tesla has done a lot of work to source and even manufacture its own batteries within the United States, a project that has been in progress for several years but will pay dividends in the end.

According to a 2023 Nikkei analysis, Tesla’s battery material suppliers were dominated by Chinese companies. At the time, a whopping 39 percent of the company’s cell materials came from Chinese companies.

This number is decreasing as it operates its own in-house cell and material production projects, like its lithium refinery in Texas.

It also wants to utilize battery manufacturers that have plans to build cells in the U.S.

Panasonic, for example, is building a facility in Kansas that will help Tesla utilize domestically-manufactured cells for its cars.

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Tesla stock: Morgan Stanley says eVTOL is calling Elon Musk for new chapter

Could Tesla dive into the eVTOL market? Morgan Stanley takes a look.

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Daniel Oberhaus, CC BY-SA 4.0 , via Wikimedia Commons

Tesla shares are up nearly 20 percent in the past month, but that is not stopping the only trillion-dollar automaker from attracting all types of new potential sectors to disrupt, at least from an investor and analyst perspective.

Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas is not one to shy away from some ideas that many investors would consider far-fetched. In a recent note, Jonas brought up some interesting discussion regarding Tesla’s potential in the eVTOL industry, and how he believes CEO Elon Musk’s answer was not convincing enough to put it off altogether.

Tesla’s Elon Musk says electric planes would be ‘fun problem to work on’

Musk said that Tesla was “stretched pretty thin” when a question regarding a plane being developed came up. Jonas said:

“In our opinion, that’s a decidedly different type of answer. Is Tesla an aviation/defense-tech company in auto/consumer clothing?”

Musk has been pretty clear about things that Tesla won’t do. Although he has not unequivocally denied aviation equipment, including planes and drones, as he has with things like motorcycles, it does not seem like something that is on Musk’s mind.

Instead, he has focused the vast majority of his time at Tesla on vehicle autonomy, AI, and robotics, things he sees as the future.

Tesla and China, Robotics, Pricing

Morgan Stanley’s note also discussed Tesla’s prowess in its various areas of expertise, how it will keep up with Chinese competitors, as there are several, and the race for affordable EVs in the country.

Tesla is the U.S.’s key to keeping up with China

“In our view, Tesla’s expertise in manufacturing, data collection, robotics/ physical AI, energy, supply chain, and infrastructure are more critical than ever before to put the US on an even footing with China in embodied AI,” Jonas writes.

It is no secret that Tesla is the leader in revolutionizing things. To generalize, the company has truly dipped its finger in all the various pies, but it is also looked at as a leader in tech, which is where Chinese companies truly have an advantage.

Robotics and the ‘Humanoid Olympics’

Jonas mentioned China’s recent showcasing of robots running half marathons and competing in combat sports as “gamification of robotic innovation.”

Tesla could be at the forefront of the effort to launch something similar, as the analyst predicts the U.S. version could be called “Humanoid Ninja Warrior.”

Pricing

Tesla is set to launch affordable models before the end of Q2, leaving this month for the company to release some details.

While the pricing of those models remains in limbo with the $7,500 tax credit likely disappearing at the end of 2024, companies in China have been able to tap incredibly aggressive pricing models. Jonas, for example, brings up the BYD Seagull, which is priced at just about $8,000.

Tesla can tap into an incredibly broader market if it can manage to bring pricing to even below $30,000, which is where many hope the affordable models end up.

During the Q3 2024 Earnings Call, Musk said that $30,000 is where it would be with the tax credit:

“Yeah. It will be like with incentive. So, 30K, which is kind of a key threshold.”

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