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Morgan Stanley, Baird weigh in on Tesla (TSLA) following Monday’s slide

[Credit: DarkSoldier 360/YouTube]

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After Monday’s steep dive, Tesla stock (NASDAQ:TSLA) received a vote of confidence from several Wall St. analysts who reiterated their support for the electric car maker. The new optimistic outlook for Tesla’s stock comes amidst the aftermath of a Wall Street Journal stating that the company asked suppliers for refunds to help it reach profitability.

In a recently published note, Baird analyst Ben Kallo stated that the recent selloff of Tesla stock is a huge buying opportunity for investors. Kallo did not provide a direct comment on the WSJ article, though he did state that the market’s reaction to the report seems to be overly negative. The analyst reiterated his Outperform rating on Tesla stock, keeping a price target of $411 on the company’s shares.

“We hesitated to comment on the WSJ article, but believe the stock reaction is overly negative. We believe contract negotiations are an effort to increase profitability, rather than a sign TSLA is looking to reinforce its balance sheet. Based on the available information, we view this report as a further step in TSLA’s progression towards profitability rather than as a necessity to strengthen the company’s balance sheet. We think bear arguments that renegotiations are necessary to sustain TSLA’s balance sheet are overly exaggerated.

“We think it is unlikely TSLA would be asking for concessions from a position of weakness, and think the report could indicate TSLA production is ramping. We are buyers on any weakness, although we expect bears could pile on ahead of the quarter.”

Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas stated that the “push and pull” of media reports on Tesla has added a layer of risk to evaluating the electric car maker in the short term. Nevertheless, Jonas stated that he believes Tesla is currently trading at fair value, adding that higher average selling prices on the company’s vehicles could prove to be the margin booster that Tesla has been waiting on.

Consumer Edge Research senior analyst James Albertine has also weighed in on the recent movement of Tesla stock. In a segment on Bloomberg Markets: The Open, Albertine stated that regardless of negative reports about the company, Tesla still appears to be on its way to profitability.

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“Let’s take a step back from the unbelievable number of headlines that come out hourly on this name. (Tesla is) a company that is well on their way to profitability, we think, predicated on the ramp of the Model 3. The need to raise cash is because there’s such great demand for the products that they’ve created.

“There’s a lot of good things about Tesla that get lost in these discussions between quarterly results, and we’re very impressed by their ability to get to 5,000 units per week at the end of June. That was something no one thought was possible as of the first quarter. It is unfortunate that we have to parry all these different issues day in and day out, but we do believe underpinning all of this, is an incredible demand for an incredible product.”

Tesla stock took a beating on Monday’s trading, at one point going down more than 5% and hitting as low as $293.57 per share. Over the day, and as Tesla released an official statement responding to the Wall Street Journal report, the stock leveled out, ending at $303.20 on Monday.

Tesla stock will likely continue to exhibit volatility as the company approaches the date for its Q2 2018 financial results and earnings call, which is set to be held after market close on Wednesday, August 1, 2018. Despite sustained downward pressure from Wall St., Tesla is continuing its push to ramp Model 3 production and deliveries through the third quarter. With initiatives such as test drive programs for the Model 3, a 5-minute Sign & Drive system, as well as the possibility of adopting a digital contract when purchasing its cars, Tesla appears incredibly determined to prove that it could be profitable this third quarter.

As of writing, Tesla is trading down 2.30% at $296.24 per share.

Disclosure: I have no ownership in shares of TSLA and have no plans to initiate any positions within 72 hours.

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Simon is an experienced automotive reporter with a passion for electric cars and clean energy. Fascinated by the world envisioned by Elon Musk, he hopes to make it to Mars (at least as a tourist) someday. For stories or tips--or even to just say a simple hello--send a message to his email, simon@teslarati.com or his handle on X, @ResidentSponge.

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Elon Musk

Why automakers keep turning down Elon Musk’s Tesla Full Self-Driving offer

Elon Musk confirms no automaker has ever accepted Tesla’s offer to license Full Self-Driving software.

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Elon Musk gave a brief answer on X Monday that confirmed that Tesla’s standing offer to license Full Self-Driving to other automakers still has zero takers. Sawyer Merritt wrote that “Tesla has for years openly invited other automakers to license FSD. None of them have accepted,” responding to a prediction from Boom Supersonic founder Blake Scholl that Tesla would eventually open FSD the way it opened its Supercharger network to rival brands. Musk’s reply to Merritt was one word: “Exactly.”

It is not the first time Musk has made this point. He said something similar in November, when he called legacy automakers reluctance to adopt FSD “crazy,” and Tesla has floated the offer publicly since at least 2021. Scholl’s prediction touches on something real. Once NACS became the de facto charging standard, adoption from Ford, GM, Rivian and others followed within about a year. FSD licensing was supposed to work the same way once Tesla built enough of a lead that switching made sense for everyone.

The case for licensing now is stronger than it was two years ago. Waymo and Zoox are logging hundreds of thousands of unsupervised autonomous miles, along with Tesla’s own Robotaxi fleet. Every automaker still selling driver assist systems that lag FSD has given the robotaxi conversation to Tesla, Waymo and Zoox by default. Licensing FSD would let a GM or a Ford compete on the same field without spending a decade and billions of dollars building a stack from scratch, the same argument Tesla made when it opened the Supercharger network to bring more EVs onto its chargers.

But FSD is not a connector standard. As one reply to Musk’s post pointed out, licensing FSD is not a software license the way NACS was a plug spec. It requires adopting Tesla’s eight camera layout and its onboard compute architecture, meaning a licensee’s cars would effectively become Tesla hardware wearing someone else’s badge. That is the visible obstacle. The less visible one is data. A licensed FSD stack would report back the same telemetry Tesla collects from its own fleet, giving Tesla a continuous read on how a competitor’s cars are actually driven, where they struggle, and how often drivers intervene. For an automaker trying to build its own autonomy program, or simply trying to keep its build quality and safety record private, handing Tesla that visibility could be a bigger cost than the hardware bill. It is the reason the Supercharger comparison only goes so far. Opening a charging plug cost Tesla very little. Opening FSD would cost a rival something it cannot get back.

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Elon Musk

Tesla eyes supply partners for Optimus mass production

Tesla certified three Chinese suppliers for Optimus mass production, signaling its robot timeline is accelerating.

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Concept rendering of Tesla Optimus in mass production

Tesla’s robotics team traveled to Ningbo, in China’s Zhejiang province, on September 16 and spent the following day auditing component suppliers for Optimus, according to a Bloomberg report cited by RobotAIGeek. The visit moved three manufacturers from provisional status to certified mass production partners: Tuopu Group, which handles actuators and chassis components, Ningbo Joyson Electronic, a sensor supplier, and Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls, which builds thermal management systems. All three already supply parts to Tesla’s electric vehicles, and the audit reportedly came with fresh orders that supply chain reports put at an initial batch of roughly 5,000 units.

Tuopu, Joyson, and Sanhua built their manufacturing base serving the automotive industry, where tolerances and volume requirements are already close to what a mass produced humanoid robot demands. Sanhua in particular has history here. Teslarati reported last October that the company had received a roughly $685 million order for linear actuators tied to Optimus, a volume industry watchers estimated could cover around 180,000 robots once production ramped.

Supply chain reports tied to this week’s audit put Tesla’s near term production goal at about 1,000 Optimus units a week by late September, rising to 2,000 to 2,500 units a week by the end of the year. That pace would put real weight behind the timeline Tesla has been building toward since May, when it wound down Model S and Model X production at Fremont to convert that floor space into a dedicated Optimus line targeting one million units annually. JPMorgan analysts who toured the factory in August confirmed the conversion took roughly four months, a pace Musk has called unprecedented for a facility that size.

New drone video shows Tesla’s Optimus Factory reaching a turning point

Fremont is only the first phase. A second, larger Optimus plant is rising at Gigafactory Texas, where drone footage shared by Joe Tegtmeyer last week showed the structural steel nearing completion on the north end of the building. Tesla has said that facility is meant to eventually support production of up to 10 million units a year, though volume output there is not expected before 2027.

Commercial sales of Optimus are still targeted for the second half of 2027, but production is expected to start well before then. JPMorgan analyst Rajat Gupta has said Tesla’s “Optimus Academy” program, which uses early units to collect real world training data inside Tesla’s own facilities, is expected to be running later this year. Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Ian Ma described the Ningbo audits as “a positive commercialization signal for China’s humanoid supply chain,” noting that sentiment could improve further if the visit leads to confirmed supplier nominations and larger orders. The Solactive China Humanoid Robotics Index rose about 1.4% on the news, though it remains down roughly 30% for the year.

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Investor's Corner

New drone video shows Tesla’s Optimus Factory reaching a turning point

New drone footage shows Tesla’s dedicated Optimus factory steel frame nearing completion at Giga Texas.

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Tesla’s dedicated Optimus factory at Gigafactory Texas is closing in on a finished steel frame, according to drone footage posted Thursday afternoon by longtime site observer Joe Tegtmeyer. In the video, Tegtmeyer said structural steel assembly is now about five column grids away from reaching the building’s north perimeter beam, putting the primary skeleton in its final stretch roughly six months after Tesla broke ground on the North Campus site in late March.

Tegtmeyer’s footage shows concrete already going in on three upper floors while crews continue laying rebar and pouring grade beam footings at ground level. That kind of parallel work, steel rising at one end of the site while concrete sets at the other, is a scheduling approach Tesla used at the original Giga Texas building and appears to be repeating here to save time before the plant’s targeted 2027 production start.

Teslarati has tracked the building’s progress since Tesla confirmed construction was officially underway in May, when the first steel structure went up on what was then bare, reclaimed land. The facility is part of a more than 5.2 million square foot expansion of Giga Texas’s North Campus that Tesla has said will eventually run nearly the length of the existing vehicle factory, over 4,000 feet, while sitting somewhat narrower. Musk has pegged the long term output target at 10 million Optimus units a year once the line is running at full capacity, a volume that would dwarf the one million unit pilot line Tesla is standing up separately at its Fremont, California factory.

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Tesla Giga Texas to feature massive Optimus V4 production line

The Texas facility sits alongside another major buildout on the same campus. Terafab, the joint Tesla and SpaceX chip fabrication plant that will eventually supply the silicon running Optimus units in the field. Housing robot assembly and chip production on the same grounds is a deliberate supply chain decision, cutting down on the shipping and lead time that would otherwise sit between the two.

Tesla has not given an updated timeline beyond its previously stated goal of bringing high volume Optimus production online at the site in the summer of 2027. Fremont’s smaller pilot line began mass producing the current Gen 3 robot in January, with that plant expected to build tens of thousands of units this year primarily to generate the real world data Tesla needs to refine the robot’s software before Giga Texas ramps up. Six months of visible construction progress, tracked almost entirely through Tegtmeyer’s recurring drone flights, gives the clearest outside look yet at how seriously Tesla is treating that 2027 deadline.

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