Investor's Corner
Oppenheimer raises Tesla (TSLA) price target to $418 amid Q4’s positive Model 3 outlook
Wall Street’s sentiments towards Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) continues to get more positive, with Oppenheimer analyst Colin Rusch reiterating an “Outperform” rating on the company while raising his price target to $418 per share. Oppenheimer’s update comes amidst Tesla’s ongoing rally, which features the stock nearing levels close to its 52-week high of $387.46.
In a recent note to clients, Rusch stated that the drama surrounding Tesla and its CEO over the past few months seems to be all but over. This, according to the Wall Street analyst, places Tesla’s improving fundamentals front and center. Pushed by an even more optimized Model 3 ramp and weak competition from rival carmakers, Rusch notes that the next quarters could prove to be even better for the electric car maker.
“After a drama-filled fall that concluded with a settlement with SEC and a new board chair, we believe TSLA is enjoying improving fundamentals based on increasingly efficient manufacturing, strong ASPs leading to better than expected cash flow, as well as slow and disappointing competition entering the market for EV/ PHEVs,” Rusch said.
The Oppenheimer analyst notes that Tesla seems poised to top Wall Street estimates for 66,000 Model 3 production in the fourth quarter. Rusch also stated that Model 3 gross margins might potentially rise into the low 20% range this Q4.
“We believe as TSLA delivers steady cash flow, a new group of investors will begin taking positions, helping drive shares higher. We are looking to solid Model 3 deliveries and GM plus announcement of China factory financing as catalysts into early 2019,” he said.
Oppenheimer’s Outperform rating and $418 price target on Tesla stock seems to have fostered positive sentiment among the company’s investors. As of writing, Tesla shares are largely maintaining their gains, trading +0.20% at $367.50 per share.
OPPENHEIMER : "After a drama-filled fall .. we believe TSLA is enjoying improving fundamentals based on increasingly efficient manufacturing, strong ASPs leading to better than expected cash flow, as well as slow and disappointing competition .."
Price Target: $418 $TSLA #Tesla pic.twitter.com/i0BOb3Ci24
— vincent (@vincent13031925) December 12, 2018
Tesla has received several votes of confidence from Wall Street recently. This month alone, the company received a price target of $420 per share from CFRA, an independent investment research company, as well as a “Buy” rating and $450 price target from Jefferies Financial Group. Piper Jaffray further noted that if Tesla maintains its momentum, the company could very well find itself within striking distance of a short squeeze. All of these firms have mentioned Tesla’s improving fundamentals as a driver for their optimistic outlook on the electric car maker.
Tesla’s core businesses are expected to see a notable improvement in the coming quarters, with Elon Musk stating that the company would be focusing on the introduction of projects like the Model Y SUV and the Tesla pickup truck, as well as the wide rollout of products like the Solar Roof tiles. The Model 3’s entrance into the international markets is also expected to bode well for the company.
In a way, the current optimism surrounding Tesla’s stock could be summarized by the comments of Pierre Ferragu of New Street Research, who recently took a tour of the Fremont factory. In a note to the firm’s clients, Ferragu described Tesla’s Model 3 ramp as a learning experience for the company — one which bodes well for Tesla’s future endeavors.
“By shooting way too high, Tesla failed on its original plan, but achieved a world-class result. The next production sites will be much more efficient, and will ramp very rapidly,” he said.
Disclosure: I have no ownership in shares of TSLA and have no plans to initiate any positions within 72 hours.
Investor's Corner
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) received fresh support from Piper Sandler this week after analysts toured the Fremont Factory and tested the company’s latest Full Self-Driving software. The firm reaffirmed its $500 price target, stating that FSD V14 delivered a notably smooth robotaxi demonstration and may already perform at levels comparable to, if not better than, average human drivers.
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Analysts highlight autonomy progress
During more than 75 minutes of focused discussions, analysts reportedly focused on FSD v14’s updates. Piper Sandler’s team pointed to meaningful strides in perception, object handling, and overall ride smoothness during the robotaxi demo.
The visit also included discussions on updates to Tesla’s in-house chip initiatives, its Optimus program, and the growth of the company’s battery storage business. Analysts noted that Tesla continues refining cost structures and capital expenditure expectations, which are key elements in future margin recovery, as noted in a Yahoo Finance report.
Analyst Alexander Potter noted that “we think FSD is a truly impressive product that is (probably) already better at driving than the average American.” This conclusion was strengthened by what he described as a “flawless robotaxi ride to the hotel.”
Street targets diverge on TSLA
While Piper Sandler stands by its $500 target, it is not the highest estimate on the Street. Wedbush, for one, has a $600 per share price target for TSLA stock.
Other institutions have also weighed in on TSLA stock as of late. HSBC reiterated a Reduce rating with a $131 target, citing a gap between earnings fundamentals and the company’s market value. By contrast, TD Cowen maintained a Buy rating and a $509 target, pointing to strong autonomous driving demonstrations in Austin and the pace of software-driven improvements.
Stifel analysts also lifted their price target for Tesla to $508 per share over the company’s ongoing robotaxi and FSD programs.
Investor's Corner
Tesla wins $508 price target from Stifel as Robotaxi rollout gains speed
The firm cited meaningful progress in Tesla’s robotaxi roadmap, ongoing Full Self-Driving enhancements, and the company’s long-term growth initiatives.
Tesla received another round of bullish analyst updates this week, led by Stifel, raising its price target to $508 from $483 while reaffirming a “Buy” rating. The firm cited meaningful progress in Tesla’s robotaxi roadmap, ongoing Full Self-Driving enhancements, and the company’s long-term growth initiatives.
Robotaxi rollout, FSD updates, and new affordable cars
Stifel expects Tesla’s robotaxi fleet to expand into 8–10 major metropolitan areas by the end of 2025, including Austin, where early deployments without safety drivers are targeted before year-end. Additional markets under evaluation include Nevada, Florida, and Arizona, as noted in an Investing.com report. The firm also highlighted strong early performance for FSD Version 14, with upcoming releases adding new “reasoning capabilities” designed to improve complex decision-making using full 360-degree vision.
Tesla has also taken steps to offset the loss of U.S. EV tax credits by launching the Model Y Standard and Model 3 Standard at $39,990 and $36,990, Stifel noted. Both vehicles deliver more than 300 miles of range and are positioned to sustain demand despite shifting incentives. Stifel raised its EBITDA forecasts to $14.9 billion for 2025 and $19.5 billion for 2026, assigning partial valuation weightings to Tesla’s FSD, robotaxi, and Optimus initiatives.
TD Cowen also places an optimistic price target
TD Cowen reiterated its Buy rating with a $509 price target after a research tour of Giga Texas, citing production scale and operational execution as key strengths. The firm posted its optimistic price target following a recent Mobility Bus tour in Austin. The tour included a visit to Giga Texas, which offered fresh insights into the company’s operations and prospects.
Additional analyst movements include Truist Securities maintaining its Hold rating following shareholder approval of Elon Musk’s compensation plan, viewing the vote as reducing leadership uncertainty.
@teslarati Tesla Full Self-Driving yields for pedestrians while human drivers do not…the future is here! #tesla #teslafsd #fullselfdriving ♬ 2 Little 2 Late – Levi & Mario
Investor's Corner
Tesla receives major institutional boost with Nomura’s rising stake
The move makes Tesla Nomura’s 10th-largest holding at about 1% of its entire portfolio.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) has gained fresh institutional support, with Nomura Asset Management expanding its position in the automaker.
Nomura boosted its Tesla holdings by 4.2%, adding 47,674 shares and bringing its total position to more than 1.17 million shares valued at roughly $373.6 million. The move makes Tesla Nomura’s 10th-largest holding at about 1% of its entire portfolio.
Institutional investors and TSLA
Nomura’s filing was released alongside several other fund updates. Brighton Jones LLC boosted its holdings by 11.8%, as noted in a MarketBeat report, and Revolve Wealth Partners lifted its TSLA position by 21.2%. Bison Wealth increased its Tesla stake by 52.2%, AMG National Trust Bank increased its position in shares of Tesla by 11.8%, and FAS Wealth Partners increased its TSLA holdings by 22.1%. About 66% of all outstanding Tesla shares are now owned by institutional investors.
The buying comes shortly after Tesla reported better-than-expected quarterly earnings, posting $0.50 per share compared with the $0.48 consensus. Revenue reached $28.10 billion, topping Wall Street’s $24.98 billion estimate. Despite the earnings beat, Tesla continues to trade at a steep premium relative to peers, with a market cap hovering around $1.34 trillion and a price-to-earnings ratio near 270.
Recent insider sales
Some Tesla insiders have sold stock as of late. CFO Vaibhav Taneja sold 2,606 shares in early September for just over $918,000, reducing his personal stake by about 21%. Director James R. Murdoch executed a far larger sale, offloading 120,000 shares for roughly $42 million and trimming his holdings by nearly 15%. Over the past three months, Tesla insiders have collectively sold 202,606 shares valued at approximately $75.6 million, as per SEC disclosures.
Tesla is currently entering its next phase of growth, and if it is successful, it could very well become the world’s most valuable company as a result. The company has several high-profile projects expected to be rolled out in the coming years, including Optimus, the humanoid robot, and the Cybercab, an autonomous two-seater with the potential to change the face of roads across the globe.
@teslarati Tesla Full Self-Driving yields for pedestrians while human drivers do not…the future is here! #tesla #teslafsd #fullselfdriving ♬ 2 Little 2 Late – Levi & Mario
Tesla CEO Elon Musk teases insane capabilities of next major FSD update
Tesla Full Self-Driving v14.2 – Full Review, the Good and the Bad
