Investor's Corner
Tesla stock sentiment ‘overdone’ as 2.1m delivery target takes focus: Wedbush
Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) has been subject to negative sentiments that are “overdone,” according to Wedbush analyst Dan Ives.
Ives also believes Tesla can achieve a base delivery goal of 2.1 million units this year, with a “stretch” estimation of 2.2 million cars being delivered. The final three quarters of the year will have to prove to be an entirely different story than Q1 because the company is “tracking softly towards the ~430k level,” Ives writes in his note.
The consensus surrounding Tesla stock in the early portion of the year stands as questionable in terms of demand, production, and the advancement of its product line. Some analysts have even called Tesla’s lineup stale, stagnant, and aging.
While demand seems to be slowing slightly, production has been affected by a factory shutdown in Germany due to unforeseen circumstances that are out of Tesla’s hands. In the United States, most of the company’s focus has been on the launch of the new Model 3 and the Cybertruck.
The new Model 3 could help secure return customers who want the newest version of the company’s most affordable vehicle, and the Cybertruck production ramp is slowly picking up pace, but will likely not substantially contribute to the overall delivery figures of the first half of the year.
There are certainly some indicators that Tesla is due to have a slower year in 2024. The company stated that its growth rate could be slow due to the focus on the next-generation platform, which is set to hit the market in the latter half of 2025.
Additionally, the projected start of 2024 has been slower than what most would have anticipated, which puts a lot of eyes on Q1 delivery and production numbers.
However, Ives feels these negative thoughts are overblown and out of context:
“We believe the stock is way overshooting on the negative front as the demand story for Tesla is more in stabilization mode heading to the rest of 2024, price cuts are moderating, battery costs/production is showing strong cost efficiencies, and a Model 2 (sub $30k vehicle) is on the roadmap for the next year. In the near-term, it’s not roses and rainbows with demand sluggish for 1Q, the Berlin arson shutdown, and noise around the Musk comp package. That said, we believe the risk/reward is extremely compelling at these levels with the AI story and FSD making major strides at Tesla, and, in our opinion, represents a valuation that could exceed $1 trillion as this next chapter of the Tesla growth story plays out in the field.”
While Ives notes the negative sentiment is “overdone,” he does acknowledge the headwinds the company will face this year due to the various factors that are going to present challenges for Tesla.
Ives also writes that the Tesla Board had three non-negotiables to stop the bleeding for the stock:
1. Create a new comp package that supersedes this 2018 one along with a new package post proxy that will be voted at the next shareholder meeting in May
2. Devise a new comp package that would get Musk directly to the 25% voting share bogey he has discussed over the past month and voted on at the next shareholder meeting
3. We believe Tesla moving to Texas would clear the way for the Board to go down the path to get Musk towards the 25% voting rights and do a comp package that supersedes the 2018 plan; making the Delaware ruling noise.
Ives and Wedbush maintained the Outperform rating on the stock and the $315 price target.
Disclosure: Joey Klender owns Tesla stock.
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Investor's Corner
Tesla gets its latest short from Michael Burry: ‘Happy it jumped back to this level’
Tesla short seller Michael Burry, the subject of the film “The Big Short,” where he was portrayed by Steve Carell, has revealed he has opened a new bet against the stock.
In a new update to his Substack newsletter in a post titled “Trading Post June 30, 2026,” Burry revealed a new set of bets against Tesla, Caterpillar, NVIDIA, Applied Materials Inc., and the iShares Semiconductor ETF.
In regard to Tesla, Burry wrote:
“And finally I shorted Tesla at 416.22. Happy it jumped back to this level.”
This means Burry likely opened his new short position after the company’s recent rally on Wall Street, which saw Tesla shares sink in mid-May, only to recover to well over the $400 mark. Currently, shares trade at around $427.
The company saw a big Tuesday as shares climbed considerably, over 10 percent. The size of the Tesla short was not provided, nor did Burry give any information on the position’s structure, the number of shares, dollar value, or whether options were used in the short.
The Tesla and SpaceX merger everyone is talking about is quietly building
Over the years, Burry has been one of the more vocal critics of Tesla, calling its share price “media inflated,” and saying it was “ridiculously overvalued” as recently as December.
The company has largely transitioned away from being known as an automotive company and instead is much more widely regarded as an AI play, mostly due to its Full Self-Driving efforts, Optimus robot development, and data collection related to both.
This has not pulled those skeptics away from being vocal about their distaste for how Tesla is valued, but there’s no denying that the company is a global force in many things, including sustainable energy, automotive, and AI.
Investor's Corner
SpaceX gets initial stock coverage from Tesla’s biggest bull
Wedbush Securities is initiating stock coverage on SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX), marking the first comments on the company since it went public several weeks ago. Wedbush and its analyst handling coverage, Dan Ives, are widely bullish on fellow Musk company Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA).
Ives wrote his first note initiating coverage of SpaceX shares on Wednesday with a $190 price target and an ‘Outperform’ rating. The firm believes the company is well positioned off of its IPO because of its wide array of projects, including AI compute power and infrastructure, connectivity projects, and launches.
“We view SpaceX as one of the most differentiated assets within the tech market with a strong footprint across its three core markets, with Starlink driving success with connectivity,” Ives wrote, “Starship launches leading to a demand flywheel and increasing deal flow for its Colossus clusters.”
Elon Musk called it Epic: The full story of SpaceX’s Starship Flight 12
Wedbush leans heavily on Starlink, which they say is the “profitability driver given the strength of its recurring revenue base of ~12 million subscribers as of June 5th.” Ives believes Starlink is still in the “early innings” of penetrating the global telecommunications and broadband market, as it only holds less than a 1 percent share. However, this number is sure to increase over time.
It also highlights the importance of Starship, which it says is an “essential layer” of SpaceX’s overall success. SpaceX developing and displaying the ability to reuse rockets is a major cost and reliability advantage “as it reduces the necessary hardware launch costs while generating a feedback loop for future flights to improve their launch flight rate without accelerating capex spend.”
Finally, SpaceX’s recent AI/Compute projects are also very elementary, Ives writes. It is worth mentioning Wedbush said its $190 price target is derived from a valuation forecast that sees the company yielding roughly $2.48 trillion of implied enterprise value.
There are also some factors that Wedbush did not take into account with its initial coverage. The firm wrote in the note:
“We note that there is optional value coming from Starship’s accelerating scale towards sub-$200/kg unit economics, orbital data centers, and enterprise AI monetization as these factors could drive meaningful upside but these face major hurdles, so we do not take that into account with our valuation.”
SpaceX shares are down just over 2 percent today, trading at around $167 at the time of publication.
Elon Musk
Tesla Phone? Not quite, but close: analyst
For years, there have been images and videos across social media platforms that have reminded me of when I was a 15-year-old kid teased by “Xbox 720” videos on YouTube. These videos are of the supposed “Tesla Phone” that Elon Musk was secretly developing in between leading Tesla with its electric cars and SpaceX with its reusable rockets.
Would you buy a Tesla phone ? pic.twitter.com/aaTwvvIJit
— Tesla Owners Silicon Valley (@teslaownersSV) October 6, 2023
Although Musk has put those rumors to bed several times, it was never completely out of the realm that he could get involved in cell phones in some capacity. Think outside the box and more macro-level, though. Instead of reinventing the computer, Musk reinvented connectivity by developing Starlink with SpaceX.
It could be something similar, TD Cowen analyst Gregory Williams said in a note last week, where he hinted SpaceX could be gathering some steam to acquire T-Mobile.
Williams said it would be the “clear choice” for SpaceX if it decided to go through with a network acquisition. He also suggested AT&T.
The move would be possible through selling more of its own stock, which would help SpaceX raise the money to purchase T-Mobile, which would cost roughly $300 billion. It could be one of the moves SpaceX makes post-IPO in terms of an acquisition: it already acquired Cursor AI for $60 billion.
Other analysts, like Dan Ives of Wedbush, believe SpaceX and Tesla will eventually merge into one anyway, and that conglomeration could come as soon as this year, some have said.
The implications of SpaceX purchasing T-Mobile are massive. A combined entity would create a truly ubiquitous network: T-Mobile’s terrestrial 5G towers and Starlink’s growing constellation of Direct-to-Cell satellites. This would essentially eliminate dead zones across the U.S. and potentially globally.
SpaceX would instantly become a full-scale facilities-based carrier with satellite differentiation; a huge advantage. This would pressure AT&T and Verizon heavily.
There are also concerns like a potential reduction in long-term competition, and of course, a deal of that size would face intense scrutiny from government agencies.
The strategic fit is compelling due to the existing Starlink–T-Mobile partnership and complementary technologies (space + terrestrial). It could create a dominant integrated communications player. However, the regulatory, financial, and execution hurdles are enormous — this remains highly speculative with no indication SpaceX is actively pursuing it right now.