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Tesla price target cut by Morgan Stanley

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Tesla’s (NASDAQ: TSLA) price target was cut by Morgan Stanley, a firm that has had a bullish outlook on the automaker’s stock for several years.

In a new note to investors released this morning, Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas reduced the firm’s price target to $320 from $345, with the main thesis of the writing being concerned with EV demand.

“EV demand continues to decelerate despite continued price cuts,” Jonas wrote. “Fleets are dumping EVs and strong hybrid momentum is competing for the marginal EV buyer. Could Tesla lose money (sometime) this year?”

Jonas makes several points throughout the note, including Tesla’s aging product lineup, oversupply in key markets, and increasing demand for hybrids.

Tesla’s Aging Product Lineup

We have discussed this point of view in the past, and it’s hard to agree with it. While Tesla has had the same four vehicles in its lineup for several years now, the automaker has done nothing different than any other automaker in terms of refreshing and introducing new designs.

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In the past, we’ve discussed how the Honda Civic has gone through generational changes every 4-7 years. Tesla has made routine changes to the Model S and Model X in that same timeframe, the Model Y is only a few years old and rumoredly in the process of a refresh with Project Juniper, and the Model 3 just received a complete overhaul via the Highland refresh.

I drove the new Tesla Model 3, here’s what got better

Not to mention, the Cybertruck has been on the market for less than six months.

“Aging” is a tough word to use in order to describe this lineup correctly. It is hard to even consider it stale. While Tesla is working with a vehicle lineup that has been around for a few years, updates and refreshes are happening regularly.

Jonas mentions that Tesla’s lineup “may be the oldest of any major OEM,” but with the Cybertruck just launching and Model 3 just recently getting an in-depth overhaul, it is difficult to agree.

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Oversupply in Key Markets

Jonas specifically mentions China here, and for good reason. Tesla is still very popular in China, but there are simply more affordable options, and consumers may not be able to justify spending three or four times the money.

In order to get back to its competitiveness, Tesla will need to launch a vehicle at this sort of price point, which would fall between $15,000 and $25,000.

What is going on in China is something Tesla could encounter in the United States in 5-10 years. Eventually, more companies will have EVs out there, and not everyone will want to pay a premium. Of course, Tesla plans to launch the next-gen platform sometime in 2025, so it is also a possibility that the company completely averts this situation in North America.

Hybrid Demand Increases

Hybrid sales increased five times faster than EVs last month, Jonas writes in the note. Some consumers may look at the best of both worlds for their next car, and hybrids may fit the bill of what they want. As someone who drove a Ford Escape Hybrid for seven years, it offered a lot of positives, including better fuel economy than the same model in an ICE version.

Jonas believes that Toyota will outpace any major automaker in the U.S. this year in terms of growth due to its focus on hybrid powertrains.

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Price Target

Jonas reduced Tesla’s price target to $320 from $345.

“Our thesis on Tesla is that it is both an auto stock + an energy, AI/robotics company … Negative developments in the global EV market very much matter to Tesla and should reasonably have a negative near-term impact on the price of the stock. At the same time, however, we believe investors should not ignore the continued developments of tesla’s other plays,” Jonas writes.

While the firm reduced its price target to $320, it also believes that Tesla will not “get credit as an AI company as long as core auto earnings are being revised down.”

This makes it seem like the “$100 bear case may be in play,” Jonas said.

Disclosure: Joey Klender owns Tesla stock.

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I’d love to hear from you! If you have any comments, concerns, or questions, please email me at . You can also reach me on Twitter @KlenderJoey, or if you have news tips, you can email us at .

Joey has been a journalist covering electric mobility at TESLARATI since August 2019. In his spare time, Joey is playing golf, watching MMA, or cheering on any of his favorite sports teams, including the Baltimore Ravens and Orioles, Miami Heat, Washington Capitals, and Penn State Nittany Lions. You can get in touch with joey at joey@teslarati.com. He is also on X @KlenderJoey. If you're looking for great Tesla accessories, check out shop.teslarati.com

Investor's Corner

Tesla “best positioned” for Trump tariffs among automakers: analyst

Ives has a price target of $315 per share for the electric vehicle maker.

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Credit: Tesla

Wedbush analyst Dan Ives recently shared his thoughts about Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) amidst the Trump administration’s tariffs. As per Ives, Tesla is best-positioned relative to its rivals when it comes to the ongoing tariff issue.

Ives has a price target of $315 per share for the electric vehicle maker.

Best Positioned

During an interview with Yahoo Finance, the segment’s hosts asked about his thoughts on Tesla, especially considering Musk’s work with the Trump administration. Musk has previously stated that the effects of tariffs on Tesla are significant due to parts that are imported from abroad.

“When it comes to the tariff issue, they are actually best positioned relative to the Detroit Big Three and others and obviously foreign automakers. Still impacted, Musk has talked about that, in terms of just auto parts,” Ives stated.

China and Musk

Ives also stated that ultimately, a big factor for Tesla in the coming months may be the Chinese market’s reactions to its tariff war. He also noted that the next few quarters will be pivotal for Tesla considering the brand damage that Elon Musk has incited due to his politics and work with the Trump administration.

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“When it comes to Tesla, I think the worry is where does retaliatory look like in China, in terms of buying domestic. I think that’s something that’s a play. And they have a pivotal six months head, in terms of what everything we see in Austin, autonomous, and the buildout. 

“But the brand issues that Musk self-inflicted is dealing with in terms of demand destruction in Europe and the US. And that’s why this is a key few quarters ahead for Tesla and also for Musk to make, in my opinion, the right decision to take a step back from the administration,” Ives noted.

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Investor's Corner

Tesla negativity “priced into the stock at its current levels:” CFRA analyst

The CFRA analyst has given Tesla a price target of $360 per share.

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Credit: Tesla China

In recent comments to the Schwab Network, CFRA analyst Garrett Nelson stated that a lot of the “negative sentiment towards Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) is priced into the stock at its current levels.”

The CFRA analyst has given Tesla a price target of $360 per share.

Q1 A Low Point in Sales

The CFRA analyst stated that Tesla’s auto sales likely bottomed last quarter, as noted in an Insider Monkey report. This was, Nelson noted, due to Q1 typically being the “weakest quarter for automakers.” He also highlighted that all four of Tesla’s vehicle factories across the globe were idled in the first quarter.

While Nelson highlighted the company’s changeover to the new Model Y as a factor in Q1, he also acknowledged the effects of CEO Elon Musk’s politics. The analyst noted that while Tesla lost customers due to Musk’s political opinions, the electric vehicle maker has also gained some new customers in the process.

CFRA’s Optimistic Stance

Nelson also highlighted that Tesla’s battery storage business has been growing steadily over the years, ending its second-best quarter in Q1 2025. The analyst noted that Tesla Energy has higher margins than the company’s electric vehicle business, and Tesla itself has a very strong balance sheet.

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The CFRA analyst also predicted that Tesla could gain market share in the United States because it has less exposure to the Trump administration’s tariffs. Teslas are the most American-made vehicles in the country, so the Trump tariffs’ effects on the company will likely be less notable compared to other automakers that produce their cars abroad.

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Investor's Corner

Tesla average transaction prices (ATP) rise in March 2025: Cox Automotive

Tesla Model Y and Model 3 saw an increase in their average transaction price (ATP) in March 2025.

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Credit: Tesla/X

Data recently released from Cox Automotive’s Kelley Blue Book has revealed that electric vehicles such as the Tesla Model Y and Model 3 saw an increase in their average transaction price (ATP) in March 2025.

Cox Automotive’s findings were shared in a press release

March 2025 EV ATPs

As noted by Cox, new electric vehicle prices in March were estimated to be $59,205, a 7% increase year-over-year. In February, new EV prices had an ATP of $57,015. The average transaction price for electric vehicles was 24.7% higher than the overall auto industry ATP of $47,462.

As per Cox, “Compared to the overall industry ATP ($47,462), EV ATPs in March were higher by nearly 25% as the gap between new ICE and new EV grows wider. EV incentives continued to range far above the industry average. In March, the average incentive package for an EV was 13.3% of ATP, down from the revised 14.3% in February.”

Tesla ATPs in Focus

While Tesla saw challenges in the first quarter due to its factories’ changeover to the new Model Y, the company’s ATPs last month were estimated at $54,582, a year-over-year increase of 3.5% and a month-over-month increase of 4.5%. A potential factor in this could be the rollout of the Tesla Model Y Launch Series, a fully loaded, limited-edition variant of the revamped all-electric crossover that costs just under $60,000.

This increase, Cox noted, was evident in Tesla’s two best-selling vehicles, the Model 3 sedan and the Model Y crossover, the best-selling car globally in 2023 and 2024. “ATPs for Tesla’s two core models – Model 3 and Model Y – were higher month over month and year over year in March,” Cox wrote.

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Cox’s Other Findings

Beyond electric vehicles, Cox also estimated that new vehicle ATPs held steady month-over-month and year-over-year in March at $47,462, down slightly from the revised-lower ATP of $47,577 in February. Sales incentives in March were flat compared to February at 7% of ATP, though they are 5% higher than 2024, when incentives were equal to 6.7% of ATP. 

Estimates also suggest that new vehicle sales in March topped 1.59 million units, the best volume month in almost four years. This was likely due to consumers purchasing cars before the Trump administration’s tariffs took effect. As per Erin Keating, an executive analyst at Cox, all things are pointing to higher vehicle prices this summer. 

“All signs point to higher prices this summer, as existing ‘pre-tariff’ inventory is sold down to be eventually replaced with ‘tariffed’ inventory. How high prices rise for consumers is still very much to be determined, as each automaker will handle the price puzzle differently. Should the White House posture hold, our team is expecting new vehicles directly impacted by the 25% tariff to see price increases in the range of 10-15%,” Keating stated.

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