Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) will hold its first-quarter earnings call after Monday’s trading, and the expectations are pretty high. Following a blowout Q1 that saw the company completely decimate Wall Street’s expected vehicle deliveries, expectations are now high that the EV maker would post record-breaking numbers for its record-setting quarter.
The following are Wall Street’s expectations for Tesla’s Q1 2021 earnings, as well as a number of crucial metrics that TSLA investors should watch out for.
The Overview
Wall Street currently expects Tesla to report non-GAAP earnings per share (EPS) of $0.79 in the first quarter. This is quite impressive, and it represents a year-over-year surge of 216%. Tesla’s EPS stood at a relatively conservative $0.23 in Q1 2020. However, it was very impressive in Q4 2020, when the company posted an EPS of $0.80.
As for Tesla’s Q1 2021 revenue, the consensus forecast for the quarter currently stands at $10.29 billion. This estimate is quite optimistic, as it represents a year-over-year increase of 72%. In comparison, Tesla’s revenue in the fourth quarter of 2020 was $10.74 billion.
For the first quarter, Tesla delivered a total of 184,800 vehicles comprised of 182,780 Model 3 and Model Y and 2,020 Model S and Model X. This corresponded to a 109% year-over-year rise and a 2.2% sequential growth. Overall vehicle production for Q1 2021 stood at 180,338.
Key Factors to Look Out For
Considering that automotive gross margin slipped to 24.1% in Q4 2020 from 27.7% in the previous quarter, it is likely that Tesla could see some more moderation in margins for the first quarter. This is likely affected by the halt in the company’s production and deliveries of the flagship Model S and Model X, both of which have undergone extensive refreshes.
Regulatory credits would likely play a factor in Tesla’s Q1 2021 numbers as well. In the fourth quarter of 2020, regulatory credits accounted for 4.2% of Tesla’s revenues. It would then be interesting to see if the EV maker has made more this time around, considering that legacy automakers are still struggling with their shift to sustainable transportation.
Tesla has not provided a specific vehicle delivery estimate for 2021 so far. Considering the company’s strong first-quarter results, however, it would not be surprising if Tesla ends up providing a refined delivery forecast for 2021. In 2020, Tesla’s vehicle deliveries grew 36% to 499,647, and this year, Elon Musk and CFO Zach Kirkhorn have remarked that the company could see an annual growth of 50% or more.
TSLA Stock So Far
Tesla stock has seen some headwinds as of late, likely due to some negative coverage from China and a crash in Texas that seemed to be erroneously connected to Autopilot. That being said, TSLA shares still closed Friday up 1.35% at $729.40. Overall, while Tesla has fallen as much as 40% since its all-time high of $900.40 in late January, the EV maker has since regained over 25% of its loss.
Tesla’s first-quarter earnings call will be held on Monday, April 26, 2021, at 2:30 pm Pacific Time or 5:30 pm Eastern Time. Tesla’s Q1 2021 Update Letter would be released sometime after markets close on Monday.
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Investor's Corner
Tesla wins $508 price target from Stifel as Robotaxi rollout gains speed
The firm cited meaningful progress in Tesla’s robotaxi roadmap, ongoing Full Self-Driving enhancements, and the company’s long-term growth initiatives.
Tesla received another round of bullish analyst updates this week, led by Stifel, raising its price target to $508 from $483 while reaffirming a “Buy” rating. The firm cited meaningful progress in Tesla’s robotaxi roadmap, ongoing Full Self-Driving enhancements, and the company’s long-term growth initiatives.
Robotaxi rollout, FSD updates, and new affordable cars
Stifel expects Tesla’s robotaxi fleet to expand into 8–10 major metropolitan areas by the end of 2025, including Austin, where early deployments without safety drivers are targeted before year-end. Additional markets under evaluation include Nevada, Florida, and Arizona, as noted in an Investing.com report. The firm also highlighted strong early performance for FSD Version 14, with upcoming releases adding new “reasoning capabilities” designed to improve complex decision-making using full 360-degree vision.
Tesla has also taken steps to offset the loss of U.S. EV tax credits by launching the Model Y Standard and Model 3 Standard at $39,990 and $36,990, Stifel noted. Both vehicles deliver more than 300 miles of range and are positioned to sustain demand despite shifting incentives. Stifel raised its EBITDA forecasts to $14.9 billion for 2025 and $19.5 billion for 2026, assigning partial valuation weightings to Tesla’s FSD, robotaxi, and Optimus initiatives.
TD Cowen also places an optimistic price target
TD Cowen reiterated its Buy rating with a $509 price target after a research tour of Giga Texas, citing production scale and operational execution as key strengths. The firm posted its optimistic price target following a recent Mobility Bus tour in Austin. The tour included a visit to Giga Texas, which offered fresh insights into the company’s operations and prospects.
Additional analyst movements include Truist Securities maintaining its Hold rating following shareholder approval of Elon Musk’s compensation plan, viewing the vote as reducing leadership uncertainty.
@teslarati Tesla Full Self-Driving yields for pedestrians while human drivers do not…the future is here! #tesla #teslafsd #fullselfdriving ♬ 2 Little 2 Late – Levi & Mario
Investor's Corner
Tesla receives major institutional boost with Nomura’s rising stake
The move makes Tesla Nomura’s 10th-largest holding at about 1% of its entire portfolio.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) has gained fresh institutional support, with Nomura Asset Management expanding its position in the automaker.
Nomura boosted its Tesla holdings by 4.2%, adding 47,674 shares and bringing its total position to more than 1.17 million shares valued at roughly $373.6 million. The move makes Tesla Nomura’s 10th-largest holding at about 1% of its entire portfolio.
Institutional investors and TSLA
Nomura’s filing was released alongside several other fund updates. Brighton Jones LLC boosted its holdings by 11.8%, as noted in a MarketBeat report, and Revolve Wealth Partners lifted its TSLA position by 21.2%. Bison Wealth increased its Tesla stake by 52.2%, AMG National Trust Bank increased its position in shares of Tesla by 11.8%, and FAS Wealth Partners increased its TSLA holdings by 22.1%. About 66% of all outstanding Tesla shares are now owned by institutional investors.
The buying comes shortly after Tesla reported better-than-expected quarterly earnings, posting $0.50 per share compared with the $0.48 consensus. Revenue reached $28.10 billion, topping Wall Street’s $24.98 billion estimate. Despite the earnings beat, Tesla continues to trade at a steep premium relative to peers, with a market cap hovering around $1.34 trillion and a price-to-earnings ratio near 270.
Recent insider sales
Some Tesla insiders have sold stock as of late. CFO Vaibhav Taneja sold 2,606 shares in early September for just over $918,000, reducing his personal stake by about 21%. Director James R. Murdoch executed a far larger sale, offloading 120,000 shares for roughly $42 million and trimming his holdings by nearly 15%. Over the past three months, Tesla insiders have collectively sold 202,606 shares valued at approximately $75.6 million, as per SEC disclosures.
Tesla is currently entering its next phase of growth, and if it is successful, it could very well become the world’s most valuable company as a result. The company has several high-profile projects expected to be rolled out in the coming years, including Optimus, the humanoid robot, and the Cybercab, an autonomous two-seater with the potential to change the face of roads across the globe.
@teslarati Tesla Full Self-Driving yields for pedestrians while human drivers do not…the future is here! #tesla #teslafsd #fullselfdriving ♬ 2 Little 2 Late – Levi & Mario
Investor's Corner
Ron Baron states Tesla and SpaceX are lifetime investments
Baron, one of Tesla’s longest-standing bulls, reiterated that his personal stake in the company remains fully intact even as volatility pressures the broader market.
Billionaire investor Ron Baron says he isn’t touching a single share of his personal Tesla holdings despite the recent selloff in the tech sector. Baron, one of Tesla’s longest-standing bulls, reiterated that his personal stake in the company remains fully intact even as volatility pressures the broader market.
Baron doubles down on Tesla
Speaking on CNBC’s Squawk Box, Baron stated that he is largely unfazed by the market downturn, describing his approach during the selloff as simply “looking” for opportunities. He emphasized that Tesla remains the centerpiece of his long-term strategy, recalling that although Baron Funds once sold 30% of its Tesla position due to client pressure, he personally refused to trim any of his personal holdings.
“We sold 30% for clients. I did not sell personally a single share,” he said. Baron’s exposure highlighted this stance, stating that roughly 40% of his personal net worth is invested in Tesla alone. The legendary investor stated that he has already made about $8 billion from Tesla from an investment of $400 million when he started, and believes that figure could rise fivefold over the next decade as the company scales its technology, manufacturing, and autonomy roadmap.
A lifelong investment
Baron’s commitment extends beyond Tesla. He stated that he also holds about 25% of his personal wealth in SpaceX and another 35% in Baron mutual funds, creating a highly concentrated portfolio built around Elon Musk–led companies. During the interview, Baron revisited a decades-old promise he made to his fund’s board when he sought approval to invest in publicly traded companies.
“I told the board, ‘If you let me invest a certain amount of money, then I will promise that I won’t sell any of my stock. I will be the last person out of the stock,’” he said. “I will not sell a single share of my shares until my clients sold 100% of their shares. … And I don’t expect to sell in my lifetime Tesla or SpaceX.”
Watch Ron Baron’s CNBC interview below.
@teslarati :rotating_light: This is why you need to use off-peak rates at Tesla Superchargers! #tesla #evcharging #fyp ♬ Blue Moon – Muspace Lofi
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