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Tesla (TSLA) Q1 2021 earnings: What to expect

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Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) will hold its first-quarter earnings call after Monday’s trading, and the expectations are pretty high. Following a blowout Q1 that saw the company completely decimate Wall Street’s expected vehicle deliveries, expectations are now high that the EV maker would post record-breaking numbers for its record-setting quarter. 

The following are Wall Street’s expectations for Tesla’s Q1 2021 earnings, as well as a number of crucial metrics that TSLA investors should watch out for. 

The Overview

Wall Street currently expects Tesla to report non-GAAP earnings per share (EPS) of $0.79 in the first quarter. This is quite impressive, and it represents a year-over-year surge of 216%. Tesla’s EPS stood at a relatively conservative $0.23 in Q1 2020. However, it was very impressive in Q4 2020, when the company posted an EPS of $0.80. 

As for Tesla’s Q1 2021 revenue, the consensus forecast for the quarter currently stands at $10.29 billion. This estimate is quite optimistic, as it represents a year-over-year increase of 72%. In comparison, Tesla’s revenue in the fourth quarter of 2020 was $10.74 billion. 

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For the first quarter, Tesla delivered a total of 184,800 vehicles comprised of 182,780 Model 3 and Model Y and 2,020 Model S and Model X. This corresponded to a 109% year-over-year rise and a 2.2% sequential growth. Overall vehicle production for Q1 2021 stood at 180,338. 

Key Factors to Look Out For

Considering that automotive gross margin slipped to 24.1% in Q4 2020 from 27.7% in the previous quarter, it is likely that Tesla could see some more moderation in margins for the first quarter. This is likely affected by the halt in the company’s production and deliveries of the flagship Model S and Model X, both of which have undergone extensive refreshes. 

Regulatory credits would likely play a factor in Tesla’s Q1 2021 numbers as well. In the fourth quarter of 2020, regulatory credits accounted for 4.2% of Tesla’s revenues. It would then be interesting to see if the EV maker has made more this time around, considering that legacy automakers are still struggling with their shift to sustainable transportation. 

Tesla has not provided a specific vehicle delivery estimate for 2021 so far. Considering the company’s strong first-quarter results, however, it would not be surprising if Tesla ends up providing a refined delivery forecast for 2021. In 2020, Tesla’s vehicle deliveries grew 36% to 499,647, and this year, Elon Musk and CFO Zach Kirkhorn have remarked that the company could see an annual growth of 50% or more.  

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TSLA Stock So Far

Tesla stock has seen some headwinds as of late, likely due to some negative coverage from China and a crash in Texas that seemed to be erroneously connected to Autopilot. That being said, TSLA shares still closed Friday up 1.35% at $729.40. Overall, while Tesla has fallen as much as 40% since its all-time high of $900.40 in late January, the EV maker has since regained over 25% of its loss. 

Tesla’s first-quarter earnings call will be held on Monday, April 26, 2021, at 2:30 pm Pacific Time or 5:30 pm Eastern Time. Tesla’s Q1 2021 Update Letter would be released sometime after markets close on Monday. 

Don’t hesitate to contact us for news tips. Just send a message to tips@teslarati.com to give us a heads up.

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Simon is an experienced automotive reporter with a passion for electric cars and clean energy. Fascinated by the world envisioned by Elon Musk, he hopes to make it to Mars (at least as a tourist) someday. For stories or tips--or even to just say a simple hello--send a message to his email, simon@teslarati.com or his handle on X, @ResidentSponge.

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Investor's Corner

Tesla unfolded its first European “folding Supercharger”

Tesla’s folding Supercharger just arrived in Europe and it changes how fast charging expands.

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Tesla’s Folding Unit Supercharger has officially landed in Europe, with the company teasing a new installation in its effort for a broader rollout targeting major motorway rest stops across the European continent in Q3 2026. The arrival marks a notable shift in how Tesla is thinking about network expansion, moving from hardware performance alone to engineering the logistics chain itself.

While Tesla did not reveal the exact location for the new folding Supercharger in Europe, the photo shared on X heavily suggests that this maybe somewhere in Norway. Historically, whenever Tesla rolls out an entirely new infrastructure architecture in Europe, whether it was the original Supercharger stalls years ago or these brand-new modular V4 “Folding Units”, Norway is almost always the designated launch pad because of its unmatched EV adoption rate and supportive infrastructure

The Folding Unit, introduced in March 2026, is a factory pre-assembled V4 charging station built on an industrial hinge system mounted to a heavy-duty concrete base. The entire assembly arrives on site ready to unfold and connect. Tesla confirmed the units feature telescopic light poles specifically designed for easy transportation and fast on-site deployment, a detail that signals how carefully the logistics chain has been engineered alongside the hardware itself. The design allows 33% more stalls per delivery truck, cuts installation time roughly in half, and reduces overall deployment costs by more than 20% compared to traditional installations.

Tesla’s newest “Folding V4 Superchargers” are key to its most aggressive expansion yet

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Tesla also noted telescopic light poles which provide benefits over traditional Supercharger installations that require fixed-height poles that are awkward to ship, slow to position on site, and often require separate crews and equipment to erect before charging hardware can even be staged. By engineering poles that compress for transit and extend on arrival, Tesla has removed one of the quieter bottlenecks in the physical deployment process. Every hour saved on a light pole installation is an hour redirected toward getting stalls energized. At scale, across dozens of new sites per quarter, those hours add up to a meaningful acceleration in how quickly a location goes from approved permit to serving its first customer.

Each Folding Unit pairs a single V4 power cabinet with eight charging posts. The V4 cabinet delivers up to 500 kW per stall for passenger vehicles and up to 1.2 MW for the Tesla Semi, supporting twice the stalls per cabinet at three times the power density of its predecessor. Longer cables make every new station immediately usable by non-Tesla vehicles, a priority as Tesla continues opening its network to Ford, GM, Rivian, Hyundai, Stellantis, and others.

As Teslarati reported when the Folding Unit was first unveiled, Tesla’s Gigafactory New York produced its final V3 Supercharger cabinet in March 2026 after more than seven years and 15,000 units, completing a full pivot to V4 production. The European arrival of the folding design is the next chapter in that transition.

Faster and cheaper deployment means Tesla can justify building in markets and corridors that were previously too expensive to serve, filling the coverage gaps that have slowed EV adoption outside major urban centers.

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Tesla Full Self-Driving hits Level 4? One analyst says yes

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla Full Self-Driving (Supervised) is currently listed as a Level 2 suite in terms of its passenger cars. As its Robotaxi platform continues to move quickly, it has been recognized as a Level 4 ride-sharing program by the State of Texas, as Tesla recently self-certified itself.

However, a Wall Street analyst is arguing that Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) has effectively achieved Level 4 autonomy in most conditions in all of its vehicles, drawing on personal experience and data released by the company.

Alex Potter of Piper Sandler said in a note to investors on Wednesday that “Tesla has solved the self-driving puzzle,” pointing to decisions to offer insurance discounts for FSD-enabled policies as a signal of confidence, which is backed up by stellar safety records compared to human driving.

Investing.com initially reported on Potter’s new note.

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Additionally, Potter looks at the recent start of Cybercab production at Giga Texas as a potential indication that Tesla is ready to offer some level of unsupervised driving at least in the near future. The Cybercab has no steering wheel or pedals, completely eliminating the ability for human input.

He also sees Tesla’s allocation of “several hundred million USD (if not $1B+)” as confidence internally, seeing as it would be tough to set aside that amount of capital toward a project that the company does not see as relatively near-term.

Forward thinking, especially as Cybercab has no human controls, it would make sense that Tesla is at least close to self-driving. How close is another question.

Tesla has routinely teased that unsupervised FSD is close, but there are still a lot of things it feels as if the company has to roll out some more capability, including unsupervised parking features, known as “Banish,” better operation with regional self-driving performance, and other improvements.

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That is not to say that Tesla FSD is super impressive already. It has already completed coast-to-coast drives across the United States and Canada, it routinely takes the stress out of driving for most people, and it has proven through Tesla Safety Reports that it is safer and involved in accidents less frequently than humans.

Even Potter believes it is capable, as he used it to go from Missoula, Montana, to Minneapolis, Minnesota, back in April.

“There’s no substitute for personal experience,” he wrote.

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Tesla just did something in South Korea that no foreign carmaker has ever done

Tesla’s Model Y just became South Korea’s best-selling car, beating every domestic model in May.

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Tesla did something last month that no foreign car has ever done in South Korea by outselling every vehicle in the country, domestic or imported, finishing the month with Model Y as the single best-selling car across the entire Korean market. According to data from the Korea Automobile Importers and Distributors Association released on June 4, the Model Y recorded 8,762 units sold in May, pushing the Kia Sorento into second place at 7,836 units and the Hyundai Grandeur into third at 5,183 units. It is the first time an imported vehicle has outsold every domestic model on a single-month basis.

Tesla imported 10,866 cars into South Korea in May, making it the top import brand for the fourth consecutive month. BMW followed at 6,555 units, less than two-thirds of Tesla’s total, while BYD registered just 1,032 units. The combined domestic sales of GM Korea, Renault Korea, and KG Mobility last month totaled just 7,019 units, meaning a single Tesla model outsold three Korean automakers combined.

Tesla FSD earns high praise in South Korea’s real-world autonomous driving test

 

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South Korea has historically been one of the hardest markets for foreign automakers to crack. Hyundai and Kia together control close to 70% of the overall market and carry deep consumer loyalty built over decades. Tesla’s path into this market was an uphill battle due to high import duties, limited service infrastructure, and early skepticism about charging networks. In 2024, the Model Y was the best-selling imported car in South Korea with 18,717 units for the full year. By 2025, after the Juniper refresh, it cleared 50,000 units and took the top spot among all EVs.

Year to date, Tesla has a 250.8% increase in the country over the same period last year, and now holds a 30.8% share of the entire imported car segment for 2026. EVs as a category represented 48.6% of all imported passenger car registrations in May. As Teslarati has reported, the Juniper refresh brought meaningful improvements to range, interior quality, and ride refinement that addressed the most common criticisms of earlier Model Y versions. Those upgrades appear to be resonating in markets like South Korea where buyers compare Tesla directly against high end domestic competitors.

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