Investor's Corner
Tesla (TSLA) Q1 2022 earnings results: Another beat with 19% operating profit and margin
Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) first-quarter 2022 earnings saw the company post a challenging yet impressive quarter. The results, which were discussed in the Q1 2022 Update Letter, were released after the closing bell on Wednesday, April 20, 2022.
Tesla was impressive in the first quarter, with the company producing a total of 305,407 vehicles and delivering 310,048. The lion’s share of these numbers remains the Model 3 and Model Y, though Model S and Model Y output has improved over previous quarters.
The following is a quick overview of Tesla’s Q1 2022 results.
Revenue
Tesla posted total revenues of $18.756 billion with a gross profit of $5.460 billion. In comparison, analysts expected Tesla to post a revenue of $17.8 billion. Tesla cited a growth in vehicle deliveries, increasing average selling price, and growth in other parts of its business as a source of its revenue growth.
Earnings Per Share
Tesla posted non-GAAP earnings per share of $3.22 per share. This is notably higher than the Street’s estimates, which expected that the electric vehicle maker would be posting an EPS of $2.27 per share.
Profitability
Tesla posted $3.6B GAAP operating income and an impressive 19.2% operating margin in the first quarter, as well as GAAP net income of $3.3B and non-GAAP net income (ex-SBC1 ) of $3.7B in Q1 2022. Overall, the company posted GAAP Automotive gross margin of 32.9% in the first quarter.
Cash
Tesla noted that its quarter-end cash, cash equivalents and short-term marketable securities increased sequentially by $0.3 billion to $18.0 billion in the first quarter. The company added that its total debt excluding vehicle and energy product financing fell to less than $0.1B at the end of Q1 2022.
Vehicle Factories
Tesla noted that the first quarter saw several challenges from the global supply chain, transportation, labor, and manufacturing. These challenges ultimately limited the company’s ability to run its factories at full capacity. This was most evident in Giga Shanghai, which was hit by China’s Covid lockdowns. Fortunately, Tesla’s Giga Berlin-Brandenburg and Giga Texas are ramping together with the Fremont Factory.
Battery Technology
Tesla noted that diversification is the name of the game with battery and powertrain tech, as evidenced by the company’s decision to use cobalt-free LFP batteries for its standard range vehicle line.
“Diversification of battery chemistries is critical for long-term capacity growth, to better optimize our products for their various use cases and expand our supplier base. This is why nearly half of Tesla vehicles produced in Q1 were equipped with a lithium iron phosphate (LFP) battery, containing no nickel or cobalt. Currently, LFP batteries are used in most of our standard range vehicle products, as well as commercial energy storage applications. As a result of our energy efficient motors, a Model 3 with an LFP battery pack can still achieve a 267-mile EPA range,” Tesla wrote.
Tesla Energy
Tesla Energy actually showed quite a lot of growth in the first quarter, with deployments increasing by 90% year-over-year to 846 MWh. This was driven by strong Powerwall deployments. Solar deployments, however, decreased by 48% in Q1 to 48 MW, due to import delays on certain solar components.
Following is Tesla’s Q1 2022 Update Letter:
TSLA-Q1-2022-Update by Simon Alvarez on Scribd
Disclaimer: I am long TSLA.
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Tesla bear Michael Burry got blunt with his beliefs over the company’s valuation, which he called “ridiculously overvalued” in a newsletter to subscribers this past weekend.
“Tesla’s market capitalization is ridiculously overvalued today and has been for a good long time,” Burry, who was the inspiration for the movie The Big Short, and was portrayed by Christian Bale.
Burry went on to say, “As an aside, the Elon cult was all-in on electric cars until competition showed up, then all-in on autonomous driving until competition showed up, and now is all-in on robots — until competition shows up.”
Tesla bear Michael Burry ditches bet against $TSLA, says ‘media inflated’ the situation
For a long time, Burry has been skeptical of Tesla, its stock, and its CEO, Elon Musk, even placing a $530 million bet against shares several years ago. Eventually, Burry’s short position extended to other supporters of the company, including ARK Invest.
Tesla has long drawn skepticism from investors and more traditional analysts, who believe its valuation is overblown. However, the company is not traded as a traditional stock, something that other Wall Street firms have recognized.
While many believe the company has some serious pull as an automaker, an identity that helped it reach the valuation it has, Tesla has more than transformed into a robotics, AI, and self-driving play, pulling itself into the realm of some of the most recognizable stocks in tech.
Burry’s Scion Asset Management has put its money where its mouth is against Tesla stock on several occasions, but the firm has not yielded positive results, as shares have increased in value since 2020 by over 115 percent. The firm closed in May.
In 2020, it launched its short position, but by October 2021, it had ditched that position.
Tesla has had a tumultuous year on Wall Street, dipping significantly to around the $220 mark at one point. However, it rebounded significantly in September, climbing back up to the $400 region, as it currently trades at around $430.
It closed at $430.14 on Monday.
Investor's Corner
Mizuho keeps Tesla (TSLA) “Outperform” rating but lowers price target
As per the Mizuho analyst, upcoming changes to EV incentives in the U.S. and China could affect Tesla’s unit growth more than previously expected.
Mizuho analyst Vijay Rakesh lowered Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) price target to $475 from $485, citing potential 2026 EV subsidy cuts in the U.S. and China that could pressure deliveries. The firm maintained its Outperform rating for the electric vehicle maker, however.
As per the Mizuho analyst, upcoming changes to EV incentives in the U.S. and China could affect Tesla’s unit growth more than previously expected. The U.S. accounted for roughly 37% of Tesla’s third-quarter 2025 sales, while China represented about 34%, making both markets highly sensitive to policy shifts. Potential 50% cuts to Chinese subsidies and reduced U.S. incentives affected the firm’s outlook.
With those pressures factored in, the firm now expects Tesla to deliver 1.75 million vehicles in 2026 and 2 million in 2027, slightly below consensus estimates of 1.82 million and 2.15 million, respectively. The analyst was cautiously optimistic, as near-term pressure from subsidies is there, but the company’s long-term tech roadmap remains very compelling.
Despite the revised target, Mizuho remained optimistic on Tesla’s long-term technology roadmap. The firm highlighted three major growth drivers into 2027: the broader adoption of Full Self-Driving V14, the expansion of Tesla’s Robotaxi service, and the commercialization of Optimus, the company’s humanoid robot.
“We are lowering TSLA Ests/PT to $475 with Potential BEV headwinds in 2026E. We believe into 2026E, US (~37% of TSLA 3Q25 sales) EV subsidy cuts and China (34% of TSLA 3Q25 sales) potential 50% EV subsidy cuts could be a headwind to EV deliveries.
“We are now estimating TSLA deliveries for 2026/27E at 1.75M/2.00M (slightly below cons. 1.82M/2.15M). We see some LT drivers with FSD v14 adoption for autonomous, robotaxi launches, and humanoid robots into 2027 driving strength,” the analyst noted.
Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) has landed an elusive “must own” status from Wall Street firm Melius, according to a new note released early this week.
Analyst Rob Wertheimer said Tesla will lead the charge in world-changing tech, given the company’s focus on self-driving, autonomy, and Robotaxi. In a note to investors, Wertheimer said “the world is about to change, dramatically,” because of the advent of self-driving cars.
He looks at the industry and sees many potential players, but the firm says there will only be one true winner:
“Our point is not that Tesla is at risk, it’s that everybody else is.”
The major argument is that autonomy is nearing a tipping point where years of chipping away at the software and data needed to develop a sound, safe, and effective form of autonomous driving technology turn into an avalanche of progress.
Wertheimer believes autonomy is a $7 trillion sector,” and in the coming years, investors will see “hundreds of billions in value shift to Tesla.”
A lot of the major growth has to do with the all-too-common “butts in seats” strategy, as Wertheimer believes that only a fraction of people in the United States have ridden in a self-driving car. In Tesla’s regard, only “tens of thousands” have tried Tesla’s latest Full Self-Driving (Supervised) version, which is v14.
Tesla Full Self-Driving v14.2 – Full Review, the Good and the Bad
When it reaches a widespread rollout and more people are able to experience Tesla Full Self-Driving v14, he believes “it will shock most people.”
Citing things like Tesla’s massive data pool from its vehicles, as well as its shift to end-to-end neural nets in 2021 and 2022, as well as the upcoming AI5 chip, which will be put into a handful of vehicles next year, but will reach a wider rollout in 2027, Melius believes many investors are not aware of the pace of advancement in self-driving.
Tesla’s lead in its self-driving efforts is expanding, Wertheimer says. The company is making strategic choices on everything from hardware to software, manufacturing, and overall vehicle design. He says Tesla has left legacy automakers struggling to keep pace as they still rely on outdated architectures and fragmented supplier systems.
Tesla shares are up over 6 percent at 10:40 a.m. on the East Coast, trading at around $416.
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