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Investor's Corner

Tesla (TSLA) Q1 2023 earnings results: $23.3B in revenue, 19.3% non-GAAP gross margins

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Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) posted its Q1 2023 earnings report after markets closed today. The results, which were discussed in the Q1 2023 Update Letter, were released after the closing bell on Wednesday, April 19, 2023.

Tesla’s earnings come on the heels of the company’s aggressive pricing strategy and record delivery numbers. In the first quarter, Tesla produced 440,808 vehicles and delivered 422,875.  That’s a new record for the EV maker, which is quite impressive considering that Q1 is relatively short and it gets hit by holidays like the Chinese New Year.

The following is a quick overview of Tesla’s Q1 2023 results.

Earnings per Share

Tesla’s earnings per share for the first quarter of 2023 was listed at $0.85, which was right in line with analyst expectations of $0.85 as per estimates compiled by Refinitiv. 

Revenue

Tesla posted revenues of $23.33 billion, which was a slight beat of the $23.21 billion that was expected by analysts compiled by Refinitiv. Automotive revenue, a core segment of Tesla’s business, was listed at $19.96 billion in Q1 2023. 

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Overall, revenue grew 24% YoY in Q1 to $23.3 billion year-over-year. This was impacted by a growth in vehicle deliveries, reduced ASP year-over-year, and negative FX impact of $0.88 billion.

Gross Margin

Tesla’s gross margin for the first quarter of 2023 was listed at 19.3%. In Q1 2022, Tesla’s gross margin was listed at 29.1%.

Profitability

Tesla’s operating income decreased YoY to $2.7 billion in Q1, resulting in a 11.4% operating margin. The company noted that operating income was affected by growth in vehicle deliveries, reduced ASP YoY, higher raw material, commodity, logistics and warranty costs, cost of production ramp of 4680 cells, and lower credit revenue, among others. 

Net Income and GAAP Earnings

Net income, however, came at $2.51 billion, down about 24% from the past year. GAAP earnings were listed at $0.73, which is down about 23% from Q1 2022. 

Cash

At the end of Q1 2023, Tesla’s cash, cash equivalents, and investments rose sequentially by $217 million, reaching a total of $22.4 billion. This was fueled in no small part by free cash flow of $441 million, though it was somewhat tempered by other financial activities such as debt repayments.

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On Pricing and Affordability

A key focus of this quarter’s results would be Tesla’s pricing, which mostly got lower in Q1. In the recently released Update Letter, Tesla explained that while most of the automotive sector is still struggling with the economics of their respective EV programs, the company is looking to leverage its position as a cost leader. Tesla also highlighted that its pricing strategy considers a long-term view per vehicle.

“Our near-term pricing strategy considers a long-term view on per vehicle profitability given the potential lifetime value of a Tesla vehicle through autonomy, supercharging, connectivity, and service. We expect that our product pricing will continue to evolve, upwards or downwards, depending on a number of factors. Although we implemented price reductions on many vehicle models across regions in the first quarter, our operating margins reduced at a manageable rate. We expect ongoing cost reduction of our vehicles, including improved production efficiency at our newest factories and lower logistics costs, and remain focused on operating leverage as we scale.”

Vehicle Program Highlights

Tesla shared a number of updates on its vehicle programs in its Q1 2023 Update Letter. The company, for one, revealed that Cybertruck factory tooling is on track, and it is currently producing Alpha versions of the all-electric pickup truck.

Over the first quarter of 2023, the Tesla Model Y crossover also became the best-selling vehicle in Europe in Q1. The vehicle was also the best-selling vehicle in the United States during the quarter, at least outside pickup trucks.

Tesla’s Q1 2023 Update Letter can be found below.

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Don’t hesitate to contact us with news tips. Just send a message to simon@teslarati.com to give us a heads up.

Simon is an experienced automotive reporter with a passion for electric cars and clean energy. Fascinated by the world envisioned by Elon Musk, he hopes to make it to Mars (at least as a tourist) someday. For stories or tips--or even to just say a simple hello--send a message to his email, simon@teslarati.com or his handle on X, @ResidentSponge.

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Investor's Corner

Barclays lifts Tesla price target ahead of Q3 earnings amid AI momentum

Analyst Dan Levy adjusted his price target for TSLA stock from $275 to $350, while maintaining an “Equal Weight” rating for the EV maker.

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Credit: Tesla China

Barclays has raised its price target for Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA), with the firm’s analysts stating that the electric vehicle maker is approaching its Q3 earnings with two contrasting “stories.” 

Analyst Dan Levy adjusted his price target for TSLA stock from $275 to $350, while maintaining an “Equal Weight” rating for the EV maker.

Tesla’s AI and autonomy narrative

Levy told investors that Tesla’s “accelerating autonomous and AI narrative,” amplified by CEO Elon Musk’s proposed compensation package, is energizing market sentiment. The analyst stated that expectations for a Q3 earnings-per-share beat are supported by improved vehicle delivery volumes and stronger-than-expected gross margins, as noted in a TipRanks report.

Tesla has been increasingly positioning itself as an AI-driven company, with Elon Musk frequently emphasizing the long-term potential of its Full Self-Driving (FSD) software and products like Optimus, both of which are heavily driven by AI. The company’s AI focus has also drawn the support of key companies like Nvidia, one of the world’s largest companies today.

Still cautious on TSLA

Despite bullish AI sentiments, Barclays maintained its caution on Tesla’s underlying business metrics. Levy described the firm’s stance as “leaning neutral to slightly negative” heading into the Q3 earnings call, citing concerns about near-term fundamentals of the electric vehicle maker.

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Barclays is not the only firm that has expressed its concerns about TSLA stock recently. As per previous reports, BNP Paribas Exane also shared an “Underperform” rating on the company due to its two biggest products, the Robotaxi and Optimus, still generating “zero sales today, yet inform ~75% of our ~$1.02 trillion price target.” BNP Paribas, however, also estimated that Tesla will have an estimated 525,000 active Robotaxis by 2030, 17 million cumulative Optimus robot deliveries by 2040, and more than 11 million FSD subscriptions by 2030.

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Investor's Corner

BNP Paribas Exane initiates Tesla coverage with “Underperform” rating

The firm’s projections for Tesla still include an estimated 525,000 active Robotaxis by 2030.

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Credit: Tesla China

Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) has received a bearish call from BNP Paribas Exane, which initiated coverage on the stock with an Underperform rating and a $307 price target, about 30% below current levels. 

The firm’s analysts argued that Tesla’s valuation is driven heavily by artificial intelligence ventures such as the Robotaxi and Optimus, which are both still not producing any sales today.

Tesla’s valuation

In its note, BNP Paribas Exane stated that Tesla’s two AI-led programs, the Robotaxi and Optimus robots, generate “zero sales today, yet inform ~75% of our ~$1.02 trillion price target.” The research firm’s model projected a maximum bull-case valuation of $2.7 trillion through 2040, but after discounting milestone probabilities, its base-case valuation remained at $1.02 trillion.

The analysts described their outlook as optimistic toward Tesla’s AI ventures but cautioned that the stock’s “unfavorable risk/reward is clear,” adding that consensus earnings expectations for 2026 remain too high. Tesla’s market cap currently stands around $1.44 trillion with a trailing twelve-month revenue of $92.7 billion, which BNP Paribas argued does not justify Tesla’s P/E ratio of 258.59, as noted in an Investing.com report.

Tesla and its peers

BNP Paribas Exane’s report also included a comparative study of the “Magnificent Seven,” finding Tesla’s current market valuation as rather aggressive. “Our unique comparative analysis of the ‘Mag 7’ reveals the extreme nature of TSLA’s valuation, as the market implicitly says TSLA’s 2035 earnings (~55% of which will be driven by Robotaxi & Optimus, w/ zero sales now) have the same level of risk & value-appropriation as the ‘Mag 6’s’ 2026 earnings,” the firm noted.

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The firm’s projections for Tesla include an estimated 525,000 active Robotaxis by 2030, 17 million cumulative Optimus robot deliveries by 2040 priced above $20,000 each, and more than 11 million Full Self-Driving subscriptions by 2030. Interestingly enough, these seem to be rather optimistic projections for one of the electric vehicle maker’s more bearish estimates today.

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Investor's Corner

Tesla’s comfort level taking risks makes the stock a ‘must own,’ firm says

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) had coverage initiated on it by a new firm this week, and analysts said that the company’s comfort level with taking risks makes it a “must own” for investors.

Melius Research and analyst Rob Wertheimer initiated coverage of the stock this week with a $520 price target and a “Buy” rating. The price target is about 20 percent higher than the current trading price as shares closed at $435 on Wednesday, up 1.38 percent on the day.

Wertheimer said in the note to investors that introduced their opinion on Tesla shares that the company has a lot going for it, including a prowess in AI, domination in its automotive division, and an incredible expertise in manufacturing and supply chain.

He wrote:

“We see Tesla shares as a must-own. The disruptive force of AI will wreck multitrillion-dollar industries, starting with auto. Under Musk’s leadership, the company is comfortable taking risks. It has manufacturing scale and supply chain expertise that robotics startups possess more by proxy. It can rapidly improve and scale autonomy in driving, the first major manifestation of AI in the physical world.”

However, there were some drawbacks to the stock, according to Wertheimer, including its valuation, which he believes is “challenging” given its fundamentals. He said the $1 trillion market cap that the company represented was “guesswork,” and not necessarily something that could be outlined on paper.

This has been discussed by other analysts in the past, too. Yale School of Management Senior Associate Dean Jeff Sonnenfeld recently called Tesla the “biggest meme stock we’ve ever seen,” by stating:

“This is the biggest meme stock we’ve ever seen. Even at its peak, Amazon was nowhere near this level. The PE on this, well above 200, is just crazy. When you’ve got stocks like Nvidia, the price-earnings ratio is around 25 or 30, and Apple is maybe 35 or 36, Microsoft around the same. I mean, this is way out of line to be at a 220 PE. It’s crazy, and they’ve, I think, put a little too much emphasis on the magic wand of Musk.”

Additionally, J.P. Morgan’s Ryan Brinkman said:

“Tesla shares continue to strike us as having become completely divorced from the fundamentals.”

Some analysts covering Tesla have said they believe the stock is traded on narrative and not necessarily fundamentals.

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