Investor's Corner
Tesla (TSLA) Q3 2021 earnings results: EPS beat and monster automotive margins
Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) third-quarter for 2021 saw the electric car maker post $13.757 billion in revenue. The results, which were discussed in the Q3 2021 Update Letter, were released after the closing bell on Wednesday, October 20.
Tesla was impressive in the third quarter, with the company producing a total of 237,823 vehicles. This was quite a feat considering the ongoing supply chain challenges that have so far adversely affected numerous carmakers today. The company also delivered a record 241,300 vehicles, comprised of 232,025 Model 3 and Model Y, as well as 9,275 Model S and Model X.
The company’s Q3 2021 results were bolstered in part by Tesla’s growing influence in China. Gigafactory Shanghai has so far become Tesla’s primary vehicle export hub, and it stayed true to this task by exporting both the Model 3 and the Model Y to foreign territories such as Europe and Asia. Deliveries of the high-margin Model S Plaid and Long Range also continued in the third quarter.
The following are the key points in Tesla’s Q3 2021 Update Letter. In its letter, Tesla noted that Q3 2021 marked a time when the company achieved its best-ever net income, operating profit, and gross profit.
Revenue
Tesla posted $13.757 billion in revenue for Q3 2021. In comparison, FactSet analyst consensus estimated that Tesla would be posting revenue of $13.7 billion for the third quarter. Estimize, on the other hand, forecasted $13.9 billion in revenue for the EV maker.
Earnings
Tesla posted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.86 in the third quarter. In comparison, analysts polled by FactSet expected the company to report adjusted earnings of $1.58 per share. Estimize forecasted an EPS of $1.79 per share for Tesla in Q3 2021.
Cash
Tesla’s operating cash flow less CAPEX stood at $1.3 billion in Q3 2021, while net debt and finance lease repayments reached $1.5 billion. Overall, Tesla saw a $164 million decrease in its cash and cash equivalents in the third quarter to $16.1 billion.
Profitability
Tesla posted $2 billion GAAP operating income and 14.6% operating margin in Q3 2021. The company also posted $1.6 billion of GAAP net income and $2.1 billion non-GAAP net income in the third quarter. Automotive gross margin stood at 30.5% GAAP (28.8% ex-credits) in Q3 2021.
Notable Updates
- Tesla’s Fremont factory has produced over 430,000 in the last four quarters, and there’s still room for improvement.
- Giga Texas is moving as planned. First pre-production Model Y are now being built.
- Giga Shanghai is settling in nicely on its role as Tesla’s primary vehicle export hub.
- Giga Berlin is expected to receive its final permit by the end of the year. The facility is ready to start operations.
- AI Day was an overwhelming success. Tesla received tons of employee applications for its AI team.
- 4680 battery cell production continues to make progress
Tesla’s Q3 2021 Update Letter could be accessed below.
TSLA Q3 2021 Quarterly Update by Simon Alvarez on Scribd
Disclaimer: I am long TSLA
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Elon Musk
Tesla locks in Elon Musk’s top problem solver as it enters its most ambitious era
The generous equity award was disclosed by the electric vehicle maker in a recent regulatory filing.
Tesla has granted Senior Vice President of Automotive Tom Zhu more than 520,000 stock options, tying a significant portion of his compensation to the company’s long-term performance.
The generous equity award was disclosed by the electric vehicle maker in a recent regulatory filing.
Tesla secures top talent
According to a Form 4 filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, Tom Zhu received 520,021 stock options with an exercise price of $435.80 per share. Since the award will not fully vest until March 5, 2031, Zhu must remain at Tesla for more than five years to realize the award’s full benefit.
Considering that Tesla shares are currently trading at around the $445 to $450 per share level, Zhu will really only see gains in his equity award if Tesla’s stock price sees a notable rise over the years, as noted in a Sina Finance report.
Still, even at today’s prices, Zhu’s stock award is already worth over $230 million. If Tesla reaches the market cap targets set forth in Elon Musk’s 2025 CEO Performance Award, Zhu would become a billionaire from this equity award alone.
Tesla’s problem solver
Zhu joined Tesla in April 2014 and initially led the company’s Supercharger rollout in China. Later that year, he assumed the leadership of Tesla’s China business, where he played a central role in Tesla’s localization efforts, including expanding retail and service networks, and later, overseeing the development of Gigafactory Shanghai.
Zhu’s efforts helped transform China into one of Tesla’s most important markets and production hubs. In 2023, Tesla promoted Zhu to Senior Vice President of Automotive, placing him among the company’s core global executives and expanding his influence beyond China. He has since garnered a reputation as the company’s problem solver, being tapped by Elon Musk to help ramp Giga Texas’s vehicle production.
With this in mind, Tesla’s recent filing seems to suggest that the company is locking in its top talent as it enters its newest, most ambitious era to date. As could be seen in the targets of Elon Musk’s 2025 pay package, Tesla is now aiming to be the world’s largest company by market cap, and it is aiming to achieve production levels that are unheard of. Zhu’s talents would definitely be of use in this stage of the company’s growth.
Investor's Corner
Tesla analyst teases self-driving dominance in new note: ‘It’s not even close’
Tesla analyst Andrew Percoco of Morgan Stanley teased the company’s dominance in its self-driving initiative, stating that its lead over competitors is “not even close.”
Percoco recently overtook coverage of Tesla stock from Adam Jonas, who had covered the company at Morgan Stanley for years. Percoco is handling Tesla now that Jonas is covering embodied AI stocks and no longer automotive.
His first move after grabbing coverage was to adjust the price target from $410 to $425, as well as the rating from ‘Overweight’ to ‘Equal Weight.’
Percoco’s new note regarding Tesla highlights the company’s extensive lead in self-driving and autonomy projects, something that it has plenty of competition in, but has established its prowess over the past few years.
He writes:
“It’s not even close. Tesla continues to lead in autonomous driving, even as Nvidia rolls out new technology aimed at helping other automakers build driverless systems.”
Percoco’s main point regarding Tesla’s advantage is the company’s ability to collect large amounts of training data through its massive fleet, as millions of cars are driving throughout the world and gathering millions of miles of vehicle behavior on the road.
This is the main point that Percoco makes regarding Tesla’s lead in the entire autonomy sector: data is King, and Tesla has the most of it.
One big story that has hit the news over the past week is that of NVIDIA and its own self-driving suite, called Alpamayo. NVIDIA launched this open-source AI program last week, but it differs from Tesla’s in a significant fashion, especially from a hardware perspective, as it plans to use a combination of LiDAR, Radar, and Vision (Cameras) to operate.
Percoco said that NVIDIA’s announcement does not impact Morgan Stanley’s long-term opinions on Tesla and its strength or prowess in self-driving.
NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang commends Tesla’s Elon Musk for early belief
And, for what it’s worth, NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang even said some remarkable things about Tesla following the launch of Alpamayo:
“I think the Tesla stack is the most advanced autonomous vehicle stack in the world. I’m fairly certain they were already using end-to-end AI. Whether their AI did reasoning or not is somewhat secondary to that first part.”
Percoco reiterated both the $425 price target and the ‘Equal Weight’ rating on Tesla shares.
Investor's Corner
Tesla price target boost from its biggest bear is 95% below its current level
Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) just got a price target boost from its biggest bear, Gordon Johnson of GLJ Research, who raised his expected trading level to one that is 95 percent lower than its current trading level.
Johnson pushed his Tesla price target from $19.05 to $25.28 on Wednesday, while maintaining the ‘Sell’ rating that has been present on the stock for a long time. GLJ has largely been recognized as the biggest skeptic of Elon Musk’s company, being particularly critical of the automotive side of things.
Tesla has routinely been called out by Johnson for negative delivery growth, what he calls “weakening demand,” and price cuts that have occurred in past years, all pointing to them as desperate measures to sell its cars.
Johnson has also said that Tesla is extremely overvalued and is too reliant on regulatory credits for profitability. Other analysts on the bullish side recognize Tesla as a company that is bigger than just its automotive side.
Many believe it is a leader in autonomous driving, like Dan Ives of Wedbush, who believes Tesla will have a widely successful 2026, especially if it can come through on its targets and schedules for Robotaxi and Cybercab.
Justifying the price target this week, Johnson said that the revised valuation is based on “reality rather than narrative.” Tesla has been noted by other analysts and financial experts as a stock that trades on narrative, something Johnson obviously disagrees with.
Dan Nathan, a notorious skeptic of the stock, turned bullish late last year, recognizing the company’s shares trade on “technicals and sentiment.” He said, “From a trading perspective, it looks very interesting.”
Tesla bear turns bullish for two reasons as stock continues boost
Johnson has remained very consistent with this sentiment regarding Tesla and his beliefs regarding its true valuation, and has never shied away from putting his true thoughts out there.
Tesla shares closed at $431.40 today, about 95 percent above where Johnson’s new price target lies.