Investor's Corner
Tesla shares (TSLA) jump following blockbuster Hertz order announcement
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) shares surged over 7% during the morning trading hours on the heels of an announcement that the electric automaker had secured an order for 100,000 Model 3 vehicles in a deal worth $4.3 billion.
In a report this morning, it was confirmed that rent-a-car company Hertz had secured a massive order for 100,000 Tesla Model 3 electric vehicles. The order stands as the single largest purchase order of electric vehicles to date and provides Tesla with roughly $4.3 billion in revenue in a single transaction. Tesla reported its ninth consecutive quarter of profitability last week with $13.757 billion in revenue in Q3. The deal with Hertz is worth roughly one-third of the revenue that the automaker reported for all of Q3.
The deal has sent Tesla shares through the roof, extending toward $1,000 per share. At the time of writing, Tesla shares were up over 7%, or roughly $67, trading at around $976.
GOAT’s recognize GOAT’s. Introducing our all new EV fleet (@TomBrady not included) #Hertz #LetsGo pic.twitter.com/TElSE2PDKb
— Hertz (@Hertz) October 25, 2021
The deal between Tesla and Hertz is extremely bullish for the automaker, especially as the transition to electrification is now being recognized by some of the largest car rental agencies in the world. Wedbush analyst Dan Ives said the $4.3 billion deal is “a major feather in the cap” for Tesla and is indicative of the continuing surge toward electrification, especially in terms of EV demand. “While Hertz is in the early stages of electrifying its rental car fleet, Tesla getting an order of this magnitude highlights the broader EV adoption underway in our opinion as part of this oncoming green tidal wave now hitting the U.S.,” Ives wrote in a note to investors today.
Hertz placed an order for 100,000 Tesla vehicles by the end of 2022 which is the biggest electric deal order ever placed and representing $4.2 billion. This Hertz deal is a “major feather in the cap” for Tesla and speaks to where demand is heading in the Green Tidal Wave.
— Daniel Ives (@DivesTech) October 25, 2021
Pierre Ferragu of New Street Research also commented on the deal between Tesla and Hertz, stating that the rental company’s decision to choose Tesla was obvious. “VW or others would have dreamt of winning this deal and would have offered a discount,” Ferragu wrote. “Tesla won it without discount. It says a lot about the gap with competition on TCO.”
3) Combine the two: VW or others would have dreamt of winning this deal and would have offered a discount. Tesla won it without discount. It says a lot about the gap with competition on TCO.
— Pierre Ferragu (@p_ferragu) October 25, 2021
Hertz executives are also extremely excited regarding the idea of adopting electric vehicles and recognize that EVs are now a crucial part of ongoing consumer demand for rental cars. “Electric vehicles are now mainstream, and we’ve only just begun to see rising global demand and interest,” Mark Fields, Interim Chief Executive of Hertz, said. “The new Hertz is going to lead the way as a mobility company, starting with the largest EV rental fleet in North America and a commitment to grow our EV fleet and provide the best rental and recharging experience for leisure and business customers around the world.”
Hertz will begin offering Model 3s to customers at some locations starting in November. Additionally, Hertz will begin installing charging infrastructure throughout the U.S. and Europe, with plans to add 3,000 stations for customers.
Disclosure: Joey Klender is a TSLA Shareholder.
Tesla bear Michael Burry got blunt with his beliefs over the company’s valuation, which he called “ridiculously overvalued” in a newsletter to subscribers this past weekend.
“Tesla’s market capitalization is ridiculously overvalued today and has been for a good long time,” Burry, who was the inspiration for the movie The Big Short, and was portrayed by Christian Bale.
Burry went on to say, “As an aside, the Elon cult was all-in on electric cars until competition showed up, then all-in on autonomous driving until competition showed up, and now is all-in on robots — until competition shows up.”
Tesla bear Michael Burry ditches bet against $TSLA, says ‘media inflated’ the situation
For a long time, Burry has been skeptical of Tesla, its stock, and its CEO, Elon Musk, even placing a $530 million bet against shares several years ago. Eventually, Burry’s short position extended to other supporters of the company, including ARK Invest.
Tesla has long drawn skepticism from investors and more traditional analysts, who believe its valuation is overblown. However, the company is not traded as a traditional stock, something that other Wall Street firms have recognized.
While many believe the company has some serious pull as an automaker, an identity that helped it reach the valuation it has, Tesla has more than transformed into a robotics, AI, and self-driving play, pulling itself into the realm of some of the most recognizable stocks in tech.
Burry’s Scion Asset Management has put its money where its mouth is against Tesla stock on several occasions, but the firm has not yielded positive results, as shares have increased in value since 2020 by over 115 percent. The firm closed in May.
In 2020, it launched its short position, but by October 2021, it had ditched that position.
Tesla has had a tumultuous year on Wall Street, dipping significantly to around the $220 mark at one point. However, it rebounded significantly in September, climbing back up to the $400 region, as it currently trades at around $430.
It closed at $430.14 on Monday.
Investor's Corner
Mizuho keeps Tesla (TSLA) “Outperform” rating but lowers price target
As per the Mizuho analyst, upcoming changes to EV incentives in the U.S. and China could affect Tesla’s unit growth more than previously expected.
Mizuho analyst Vijay Rakesh lowered Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) price target to $475 from $485, citing potential 2026 EV subsidy cuts in the U.S. and China that could pressure deliveries. The firm maintained its Outperform rating for the electric vehicle maker, however.
As per the Mizuho analyst, upcoming changes to EV incentives in the U.S. and China could affect Tesla’s unit growth more than previously expected. The U.S. accounted for roughly 37% of Tesla’s third-quarter 2025 sales, while China represented about 34%, making both markets highly sensitive to policy shifts. Potential 50% cuts to Chinese subsidies and reduced U.S. incentives affected the firm’s outlook.
With those pressures factored in, the firm now expects Tesla to deliver 1.75 million vehicles in 2026 and 2 million in 2027, slightly below consensus estimates of 1.82 million and 2.15 million, respectively. The analyst was cautiously optimistic, as near-term pressure from subsidies is there, but the company’s long-term tech roadmap remains very compelling.
Despite the revised target, Mizuho remained optimistic on Tesla’s long-term technology roadmap. The firm highlighted three major growth drivers into 2027: the broader adoption of Full Self-Driving V14, the expansion of Tesla’s Robotaxi service, and the commercialization of Optimus, the company’s humanoid robot.
“We are lowering TSLA Ests/PT to $475 with Potential BEV headwinds in 2026E. We believe into 2026E, US (~37% of TSLA 3Q25 sales) EV subsidy cuts and China (34% of TSLA 3Q25 sales) potential 50% EV subsidy cuts could be a headwind to EV deliveries.
“We are now estimating TSLA deliveries for 2026/27E at 1.75M/2.00M (slightly below cons. 1.82M/2.15M). We see some LT drivers with FSD v14 adoption for autonomous, robotaxi launches, and humanoid robots into 2027 driving strength,” the analyst noted.
Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) has landed an elusive “must own” status from Wall Street firm Melius, according to a new note released early this week.
Analyst Rob Wertheimer said Tesla will lead the charge in world-changing tech, given the company’s focus on self-driving, autonomy, and Robotaxi. In a note to investors, Wertheimer said “the world is about to change, dramatically,” because of the advent of self-driving cars.
He looks at the industry and sees many potential players, but the firm says there will only be one true winner:
“Our point is not that Tesla is at risk, it’s that everybody else is.”
The major argument is that autonomy is nearing a tipping point where years of chipping away at the software and data needed to develop a sound, safe, and effective form of autonomous driving technology turn into an avalanche of progress.
Wertheimer believes autonomy is a $7 trillion sector,” and in the coming years, investors will see “hundreds of billions in value shift to Tesla.”
A lot of the major growth has to do with the all-too-common “butts in seats” strategy, as Wertheimer believes that only a fraction of people in the United States have ridden in a self-driving car. In Tesla’s regard, only “tens of thousands” have tried Tesla’s latest Full Self-Driving (Supervised) version, which is v14.
Tesla Full Self-Driving v14.2 – Full Review, the Good and the Bad
When it reaches a widespread rollout and more people are able to experience Tesla Full Self-Driving v14, he believes “it will shock most people.”
Citing things like Tesla’s massive data pool from its vehicles, as well as its shift to end-to-end neural nets in 2021 and 2022, as well as the upcoming AI5 chip, which will be put into a handful of vehicles next year, but will reach a wider rollout in 2027, Melius believes many investors are not aware of the pace of advancement in self-driving.
Tesla’s lead in its self-driving efforts is expanding, Wertheimer says. The company is making strategic choices on everything from hardware to software, manufacturing, and overall vehicle design. He says Tesla has left legacy automakers struggling to keep pace as they still rely on outdated architectures and fragmented supplier systems.
Tesla shares are up over 6 percent at 10:40 a.m. on the East Coast, trading at around $416.
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