Investor's Corner
Tesla shares (TSLA) jump following blockbuster Hertz order announcement
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) shares surged over 7% during the morning trading hours on the heels of an announcement that the electric automaker had secured an order for 100,000 Model 3 vehicles in a deal worth $4.3 billion.
In a report this morning, it was confirmed that rent-a-car company Hertz had secured a massive order for 100,000 Tesla Model 3 electric vehicles. The order stands as the single largest purchase order of electric vehicles to date and provides Tesla with roughly $4.3 billion in revenue in a single transaction. Tesla reported its ninth consecutive quarter of profitability last week with $13.757 billion in revenue in Q3. The deal with Hertz is worth roughly one-third of the revenue that the automaker reported for all of Q3.
The deal has sent Tesla shares through the roof, extending toward $1,000 per share. At the time of writing, Tesla shares were up over 7%, or roughly $67, trading at around $976.
GOAT’s recognize GOAT’s. Introducing our all new EV fleet (@TomBrady not included) #Hertz #LetsGo pic.twitter.com/TElSE2PDKb
— Hertz (@Hertz) October 25, 2021
-->The deal between Tesla and Hertz is extremely bullish for the automaker, especially as the transition to electrification is now being recognized by some of the largest car rental agencies in the world. Wedbush analyst Dan Ives said the $4.3 billion deal is “a major feather in the cap” for Tesla and is indicative of the continuing surge toward electrification, especially in terms of EV demand. “While Hertz is in the early stages of electrifying its rental car fleet, Tesla getting an order of this magnitude highlights the broader EV adoption underway in our opinion as part of this oncoming green tidal wave now hitting the U.S.,” Ives wrote in a note to investors today.
Hertz placed an order for 100,000 Tesla vehicles by the end of 2022 which is the biggest electric deal order ever placed and representing $4.2 billion. This Hertz deal is a “major feather in the cap” for Tesla and speaks to where demand is heading in the Green Tidal Wave.
— Daniel Ives (@DivesTech) October 25, 2021
Pierre Ferragu of New Street Research also commented on the deal between Tesla and Hertz, stating that the rental company’s decision to choose Tesla was obvious. “VW or others would have dreamt of winning this deal and would have offered a discount,” Ferragu wrote. “Tesla won it without discount. It says a lot about the gap with competition on TCO.”
3) Combine the two: VW or others would have dreamt of winning this deal and would have offered a discount. Tesla won it without discount. It says a lot about the gap with competition on TCO.
— Pierre Ferragu (@p_ferragu) October 25, 2021
Hertz executives are also extremely excited regarding the idea of adopting electric vehicles and recognize that EVs are now a crucial part of ongoing consumer demand for rental cars. “Electric vehicles are now mainstream, and we’ve only just begun to see rising global demand and interest,” Mark Fields, Interim Chief Executive of Hertz, said. “The new Hertz is going to lead the way as a mobility company, starting with the largest EV rental fleet in North America and a commitment to grow our EV fleet and provide the best rental and recharging experience for leisure and business customers around the world.”
Hertz will begin offering Model 3s to customers at some locations starting in November. Additionally, Hertz will begin installing charging infrastructure throughout the U.S. and Europe, with plans to add 3,000 stations for customers.
Disclosure: Joey Klender is a TSLA Shareholder.
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Investor's Corner
Mizuho keeps Tesla (TSLA) “Outperform” rating but lowers price target
As per the Mizuho analyst, upcoming changes to EV incentives in the U.S. and China could affect Tesla’s unit growth more than previously expected.
Mizuho analyst Vijay Rakesh lowered Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) price target to $475 from $485, citing potential 2026 EV subsidy cuts in the U.S. and China that could pressure deliveries. The firm maintained its Outperform rating for the electric vehicle maker, however.
As per the Mizuho analyst, upcoming changes to EV incentives in the U.S. and China could affect Tesla’s unit growth more than previously expected. The U.S. accounted for roughly 37% of Tesla’s third-quarter 2025 sales, while China represented about 34%, making both markets highly sensitive to policy shifts. Potential 50% cuts to Chinese subsidies and reduced U.S. incentives affected the firm’s outlook.
With those pressures factored in, the firm now expects Tesla to deliver 1.75 million vehicles in 2026 and 2 million in 2027, slightly below consensus estimates of 1.82 million and 2.15 million, respectively. The analyst was cautiously optimistic, as near-term pressure from subsidies is there, but the company’s long-term tech roadmap remains very compelling.
Despite the revised target, Mizuho remained optimistic on Tesla’s long-term technology roadmap. The firm highlighted three major growth drivers into 2027: the broader adoption of Full Self-Driving V14, the expansion of Tesla’s Robotaxi service, and the commercialization of Optimus, the company’s humanoid robot.
“We are lowering TSLA Ests/PT to $475 with Potential BEV headwinds in 2026E. We believe into 2026E, US (~37% of TSLA 3Q25 sales) EV subsidy cuts and China (34% of TSLA 3Q25 sales) potential 50% EV subsidy cuts could be a headwind to EV deliveries.
-->“We are now estimating TSLA deliveries for 2026/27E at 1.75M/2.00M (slightly below cons. 1.82M/2.15M). We see some LT drivers with FSD v14 adoption for autonomous, robotaxi launches, and humanoid robots into 2027 driving strength,” the analyst noted.
Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) has landed an elusive “must own” status from Wall Street firm Melius, according to a new note released early this week.
Analyst Rob Wertheimer said Tesla will lead the charge in world-changing tech, given the company’s focus on self-driving, autonomy, and Robotaxi. In a note to investors, Wertheimer said “the world is about to change, dramatically,” because of the advent of self-driving cars.
He looks at the industry and sees many potential players, but the firm says there will only be one true winner:
“Our point is not that Tesla is at risk, it’s that everybody else is.”
The major argument is that autonomy is nearing a tipping point where years of chipping away at the software and data needed to develop a sound, safe, and effective form of autonomous driving technology turn into an avalanche of progress.
Wertheimer believes autonomy is a $7 trillion sector,” and in the coming years, investors will see “hundreds of billions in value shift to Tesla.”
A lot of the major growth has to do with the all-too-common “butts in seats” strategy, as Wertheimer believes that only a fraction of people in the United States have ridden in a self-driving car. In Tesla’s regard, only “tens of thousands” have tried Tesla’s latest Full Self-Driving (Supervised) version, which is v14.
Tesla Full Self-Driving v14.2 – Full Review, the Good and the Bad
When it reaches a widespread rollout and more people are able to experience Tesla Full Self-Driving v14, he believes “it will shock most people.”
Citing things like Tesla’s massive data pool from its vehicles, as well as its shift to end-to-end neural nets in 2021 and 2022, as well as the upcoming AI5 chip, which will be put into a handful of vehicles next year, but will reach a wider rollout in 2027, Melius believes many investors are not aware of the pace of advancement in self-driving.
Tesla’s lead in its self-driving efforts is expanding, Wertheimer says. The company is making strategic choices on everything from hardware to software, manufacturing, and overall vehicle design. He says Tesla has left legacy automakers struggling to keep pace as they still rely on outdated architectures and fragmented supplier systems.
Tesla shares are up over 6 percent at 10:40 a.m. on the East Coast, trading at around $416.
Investor's Corner
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) received fresh support from Piper Sandler this week after analysts toured the Fremont Factory and tested the company’s latest Full Self-Driving software. The firm reaffirmed its $500 price target, stating that FSD V14 delivered a notably smooth robotaxi demonstration and may already perform at levels comparable to, if not better than, average human drivers.
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Analysts highlight autonomy progress
During more than 75 minutes of focused discussions, analysts reportedly focused on FSD v14’s updates. Piper Sandler’s team pointed to meaningful strides in perception, object handling, and overall ride smoothness during the robotaxi demo.
The visit also included discussions on updates to Tesla’s in-house chip initiatives, its Optimus program, and the growth of the company’s battery storage business. Analysts noted that Tesla continues refining cost structures and capital expenditure expectations, which are key elements in future margin recovery, as noted in a Yahoo Finance report.
Analyst Alexander Potter noted that “we think FSD is a truly impressive product that is (probably) already better at driving than the average American.” This conclusion was strengthened by what he described as a “flawless robotaxi ride to the hotel.”
-->Street targets diverge on TSLA
While Piper Sandler stands by its $500 target, it is not the highest estimate on the Street. Wedbush, for one, has a $600 per share price target for TSLA stock.
Other institutions have also weighed in on TSLA stock as of late. HSBC reiterated a Reduce rating with a $131 target, citing a gap between earnings fundamentals and the company’s market value. By contrast, TD Cowen maintained a Buy rating and a $509 target, pointing to strong autonomous driving demonstrations in Austin and the pace of software-driven improvements.
Stifel analysts also lifted their price target for Tesla to $508 per share over the company’s ongoing robotaxi and FSD programs.
Tesla FSD V14.2.1 is earning rave reviews from users in diverse conditions
Tesla FSD Supervised ride-alongs in Europe begin in Italy, France, and Germany
