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Tesla stock pullback temporary, China demand paves way to $1T market cap, Wedbush says

(Credit: @DKurac/Twitter)

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Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) stock has experienced a slight pullback in the last few weeks, tanking to losses that equate to just under 16% since the beginning of 2021. Wedbush analyst Dan Ives believes the pullback is temporary, and that Tesla could still bring a reward to investors who stand by the automaker’s stock through 2021, as demand, especially in China, may pave the way for the elusive $1 trillion market capitalization.

Already owning the title as the World’s Most Valuable Automaker, Tesla’s meteoric rise on Wall Street was fueled by the ability to overcome adversity in a challenging economic climate in 2020 thanks to the COVID-19 pandemic. Furthermore, a year that saw the automotive industry decline as a whole didn’t treat Tesla the same way, as the electric car company managed to outperform itself once again, marking 2020 as its best year in company history.

The beginning of 2021 has seen a different tune to Tesla’s performance on Wall Street. Investors have been spoiled with hand-over-fist gains in 2020, but a Q4 2020 Earnings Call that didn’t outline the company’s goals for the 2021 fiscal year left some analysts feeling unsatisfied and unsure about the company’s goals for the year.

While Tesla didn’t give a specific figure, as last year it outlined a goal of 500,000 deliveries, which it came close to at 499,550 for the year, Elon Musk and Co. did outline targets for growth in a percentage factor, indicating that it expects “to achieve 50% average annual growth in vehicle deliveries. In some years we may grow faster, which we expect to be the case in 2021.”

Ives, a Wedbush analyst who has been bullish on Tesla, believes a million vehicles could be delivered by next year, with China being the main supplier of the company’s momentum in the coming years.

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Ives wrote in a note to investors (via Financial Review):

“We believe China could see eye-popping demand into 2021 and 2022 across the board with Tesla’s flagship Giga 3 footprint a major competitive advantage, as domestic players such as BYD, Nio, Xpeng, and Li also are also firing on all cylinders and just scratching the surface of the overall TAM in China…If China stays on its current path for Tesla, Musk & Co. could hit one million delivery units globally by 2022. This speaks to our thesis that Tesla will hit a trillion-dollar market cap in 2021 despite this risk-off moment for EV stocks with the bears coming back to life after a long hibernation in their caves over the past year.”

At 1:45 PM EST, Tesla’s market cap sat at $590.06 billion, and shares were trading at $610.02.

The company’s current delivery output projections, which combine the total yearly output of its currently-active plants, would put the company at a forecasted 1,050,000 production rate for 2021. Deliveries would be within a few percentage points of that, as the company does not typically hold inventory.

Credit: Tesla

Outlook for 2021, according to Ives, seems to point toward quickly accelerating demand and expansion in China, where Tesla has been extremely competitive. Only one vehicle has managed to outsell the Tesla Model 3 in China: a GM-produced car called the Wuling HongGuang Mini EV, which doesn’t compete with any of Tesla’s cars in terms of range or performance.

As for the rest of the industry, Wedbush doesn’t believe the surge is anywhere from over. An extremely young and new sector in the grand scheme of things, the EV industry is influencing mass change within legacy automakers, who are being forced to adapt to the changing sector. “Our answer is emphatically that the EV party and transformation is just beginning as this industry is on the cusp of a $US5 trillion ($6.4 trillion) market opportunity over the next decade,” Wedbush said.

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Disclosure: Joey Klender is a TSLA Shareholder.

Joey has been a journalist covering electric mobility at TESLARATI since August 2019. In his spare time, Joey is playing golf, watching MMA, or cheering on any of his favorite sports teams, including the Baltimore Ravens and Orioles, Miami Heat, Washington Capitals, and Penn State Nittany Lions. You can get in touch with joey at joey@teslarati.com. He is also on X @KlenderJoey. If you're looking for great Tesla accessories, check out shop.teslarati.com

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Investor's Corner

Tesla investors may be in for a big surprise

All signs point toward a strong quarter for Tesla in terms of deliveries. Investors could be in for a surprise.

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(Credit: Tesla)

Tesla investors have plenty of things to be ecstatic about, considering the company’s confidence in autonomy, AI, robotics, cars, and energy. However, many of them may be in for a big surprise as the end of the $7,500 EV tax credit nears. On September 30, it will be gone for good.

This has put some skepticism in the minds of some investors: the lack of a $7,500 discount for buying a clean energy vehicle may deter many people from affording Tesla’s industry-leading EVs.

Tesla warns consumers of huge, time-sensitive change coming soon

The focus on quarterly deliveries, while potentially waning in terms of importance to the future, is still a big indicator of demand, at least as of now. Of course, there are other factors, most of them economic.

The big push to make the most of the final quarter of the EV tax credit is evident, as Tesla is reminding consumers on social media platforms and through email communications that the $7,500 discount will not be here forever. It will be gone sooner rather than later.

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It appears the push to maximize sales this quarter before having to assess how much they will be impacted by the tax credit’s removal is working.

Delivery Wait Time Increases

Wait times for Tesla vehicles are increasing due to what appears to be increased demand for the company’s vehicles. Recently, Model Y delivery wait times were increased from 1-3 weeks to 4-6 weeks.

This puts extra pressure on consumers to pull the trigger on an order, as delivery must be completed by the cutoff date of September 30.

Delivery wait times may have gone up due to an increase in demand as consumers push to make a purchase before losing that $7,500 discount.

More People are Ordering

A post on X by notable Tesla influencer Sawyer Merritt anecdotally shows he has been receiving more DMs than normal from people stating that they’re ordering vehicles before the end of the tax credit:

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It’s not necessarily a confirmation of more orders, but it could be an indication that things are certainly looking that way.

Why Investors Could Be Surprised

Tesla investors could see some positive movement in stock price following the release of the Q3 delivery report, especially if all signs point to increased demand this quarter.

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We reported previously that this could end up being a very strong rebounding quarter for Tesla, with so many people taking advantage of the tax credit.

Whether the delivery figures will be higher than normal remains to be seen. But all indications seem to point to Q3 being a very strong quarter for Tesla.

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Elon Musk

Tesla bear Guggenheim sees nearly 50% drop off in stock price in new note

Tesla bear Guggenheim does not see any upside in Robotaxi.

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tesla showroom
Credit: Tesla

Tesla bear Guggenheim is still among the biggest non-believers in the company’s overall mission and its devotion to solving self-driving.

In a new note to investors on Thursday, analyst Ronald Jewsikow reiterated his price target of $175, a nearly 50 percent drop off, with a ‘Sell’ rating, all based on skepticism regarding Tesla’s execution of the Robotaxi platform.

A few days ago, Tesla CEO Elon Musk said the company’s Robotaxi platform would open to the public in September, offering driverless rides to anyone in the Austin area within its geofence, which is roughly 90 square miles large.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk confirms Robotaxi is opening to the public: here’s when

However, Jewsikow’s skepticism regarding this timeline has to do with what’s going on inside of the vehicles. The analyst was willing to give props to Robotaxi, saying that Musk’s estimation of a September public launch would be a “key step” in offering the service to a broader population.

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Where Jewsikow’s real issue lies is with Tesla’s lack of transparency on the Safety Monitors, and how bulls are willing to overlook their importance.

Much of this bullish mentality comes from the fact that the Monitors are not sitting in the driver’s seat, and they don’t have anything to do with the overall operation of the vehicle.

Musk also said last month that reducing Safety Monitors could come “in a month or two.”

Instead, they’re just there to make sure everything runs smoothly.

Jewsikow said:

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“While safety drivers will remain, and no timeline has been provided for their removal, bulls have been willing to overlook the optics of safety drivers in TSLA vehicles, and we see no reason why that would change now.”

He also commented on Musk’s recent indication that Tesla was working on a 10x parameter count that could help make Full Self-Driving even more accurate. It could be one of the pieces to Tesla solving autonomy.

Jewsikow added:

“Perhaps most importantly for investors bullish on TSLA for the fleet of potential FSD-enabled vehicles today, the 10x higher parameter count will be able to run on the current generation of FSD hardware and inference compute.”

Elon Musk teases crazy new Tesla FSD model: here’s when it’s coming

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Tesla shares are down just about 2 percent today, trading at $332.47.

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Investor's Corner

Elon Musk issues dire warning to Tesla (TSLA) shorts

This time around, Tesla shorts should probably heed his words.

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Credit: Tesla

Elon Musk has issued a dire warning to Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) short sellers. If they do not exit their position by the time Tesla attains autonomy, pain will follow. 

Musk has shared similar statements in the past, but this time around, Tesla shorts should probably heed his words.

Musk’s short warning

The Tesla CEO’s recent statement came as a response to Tesla retail shareholder and advocate Alexandra Merz, who shared a list of the electric vehicle maker’s short-sellers. These include MUFG Securities EMEA, Jane Street Group, Clean Energy Transition LLP, and Citadel Advisors, among others. As per the retail investor, some of Tesla’s short-sellers, such as Banque Pictet, have been decreasing their short position as of late.

In his reply, Elon Musk stated that Tesla shorts are on borrowed time. As per the CEO, TSLA shorts would be wise to exit their short position before autonomy is reached. If they do not, they will be wiped out. “If they don’t exit their short position before Tesla reaches autonomy at scale, they will be obliterated,” Musk wrote in his post.

Tesla’s autonomous program

Tesla short sellers typically disregard the progress that the company is making on its FSD program, which is currently being used in pilot ride-hailing programs in Austin and the Bay Area. While Tesla has taken longer than expected to attain autonomy, and while Musk himself admits to becoming the boy who cried FSD for years, autonomy does seem to be at hand this year. Tesla’s Unsupervised FSD is being used in Robotaxi services, and FSD V14 is poised to be released soon as well.

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Elon Musk highlighted this in a response to X user Ian N, who noted that numerous automakers such as Audi, BMW, Fiat-Chrysler, Ford, GM, Honda, Mercedes-Benz, Volkswagen, and Toyota have all promised and failed in delivering autonomous systems for their vehicles. Thus, Tesla might be very late in the release of its autonomous features, but the company is by far the only automaker that is delivering on its promises today. Musk agreed with this notion, posting that “I might be late, but I always deliver in the end.”

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